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Thread: Yale study finds illegal migrant numbers twice the accepted norm of 11 million

  1. #1

    Exclamation Yale study finds illegal migrant numbers twice the accepted norm of 11 million

    Ivy League Study: Illegal Population is 22 Million, Double Estb. Estimate

    https://www.breitbart.com/big-govern...estb-estimate/

    21 Sep 2018

    The population of illegal migrants is roughly 22 million, or twice the establishment estimate of 11 million, say three professors from Yale University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

    The shocking estimate will force establishment politicians and pro-migration advocates to recalculate the estimated impact of the huge illegal population on wages and salaries, on crime rates, welfare consumption, rental and real-estate prices, productivity rates, and the distribution of job-creating investment funds to coastal vs. heartland states.

    The higher illegal population estimate helps explain why Americans’ wages and salaries have risen so little amid apparently record-low unemployment rates, and it also undercuts companies’ loud demands for yet more immigration of foreign workers, consumers, and renters.

    The population estimate also raises the political and economic stakes of any amnesty legislation. In 2014, public opposition blocked the bipartisan, establishment, media-boosted Gang of Eight bill, which claimed to offer an amnesty to just 11 million migrants. Currently, advocates for a ‘Dream Act’ amnesty claim it will provide green cards to roughly 3 million sons and daughters of illegal immigrants.

    The new estimate also bolsters President Donald Trump’s demand that reluctant GOP and hostile Democratic legislators fund a border wall.

    “Our purpose is to provide better information,” said Jonathan Feinstein, an economics professor at Yale. In a video statement, he defended the estimate from likely critics, saying it is an expert analysis, not a political project:

    This paper is not oriented towards politics or policy. I want to be very clear. This paper is about coming up with a better estimate of an important number, and we are really trying in this paper to keep away from making any statements about how that could or should be used. It is just a paper to help the debate be organized around some better information, which in my opinion is a good thing to do. I think the debate should always be centered around the best information we can develop.

    The academics expected their techniques to show the population is smaller than the consensus estimate of 11.3 million. “Our original idea was just to do a sanity check on the existing number,” said Edward Kaplan, operations research professor at Yale. “Instead of a number which was smaller, we got a number that was 50 percent higher. That caused us to scratch our heads.”

    Operations research is a skill that extracts accurate estimates from scraps of data. It began in World War II when academics were enlisted to help track Nazi U-boats and weapons-production. For example, the academics used scraps of information to conclude that the Nazis produced 270 Panther tanks in February 1944. After the war, captured factory data showed the production of 276 Panthers in that month.

    “We have a conservative estimate that the number is at least 16.7 million,” said Edward Kaplan, an operations research professor at Yale. The study used “over 1 million scenarios accounting for all of the variability in the various parameters that we need for this model [and] on average, we’re estimating something like 22 million undocumented immigrants in the United States.”

    The study says:

    The figure [below] also shows our conservative estimate of 16.7 million in Red, and the most widely accepted estimate heretofore of 11.3 million in Blue on the far left. We note that this last estimate is for 2015, but should be comparable since both the estimates based on the survey approach and our modeling approach indicate that the number of undocumented immigrants has remained relatively constant in recent years. Finally, the mean estimate of 22.1 million is shown in black in the center of the distribution.

    The new estimate uses new sources of data, such as the fingerprints of migrants caught at the Mexican border, said Mohammad Fazel‐Zarandi, a senior lecturer at the MIT Sloan School of Management. In contrast, the current estimate of 11.3 million is based on the Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey. “It’s been the only method used for the last three decades,” says Fazel‐Zarandi.

    The illegal population is higher than expected because more migrants crowded into the United States during the cheap-labor policies of Presidents’ George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush, the researchers said.

    The inflow leveled off in 2008 once the economy crashed when millions of new migrants and poor Americans were unable to pay their rising mortgage costs.

    The existing population of illegals tends to decline as many die of natural causes, or return home, or get “Adjustment of Status” to become legal residents. But the population is being kept level because new migrants — especially foreigners who overstay their visas or who migrate from Central America — offset the natural decline.

    The Yale study goes up to 2016, and so does not offer 2017 and 2018 numbers. Many new migrants are overstaying their visas and sneaking across the borders, but President Donald Trump has tightened border defenses against overstays and border-crossers.

    The Yale study complements the Census Bureau’s new estimate of the nation’s population and workforce. The bureau concluded the nation has been enlarged by 44.5 million legal or illegal immigrants, plus 17 million children of legal immigrants. Together, the new estimates conclude that the nation’s has a record-breaking foreign-born population of 55 million migrants.

    That number is roughly 16.9 percent of the population, or roughly one person six living in the United States.

    The study does not examine the number of illegal white-collar workers. That calculation is difficult because academics have not even counted the number of resident white-collar visa-workers, such as L-1 and H-1B visa holders. Breitbart News estimates that U.S. companies employ roughly 1.5 million white-collar visa workers in jobs that are sought by U.S. college graduates.

    Four million young Americans will join the workforce this year, but the federal government will also import 1.1 million legal immigrants, and allows an army of at least 2 million blue-collar and white-collar visa-workers to work U.S. jobs, alongside asylum-claiming migrants and illegal aliens.

    Overall, the Washington-imposed economic policy of economic growth via immigration shifts wealth from young people towards older people by flooding the market with cheap white-collar and blue-collar foreign labor.

    That flood of outside labor spikes profits and Wall Street values by cutting salaries for manual and skilled labor offered by blue-collar and white-collar employees. The policy also drives up real estate prices, widens wealth-gaps, reduces high-tech investment, increases state and local tax burdens, hurts kids’ schools and college education, pushes Americans away from high-tech careers, and sidelines at least 5 million marginalized Americans and their families, including many who are now struggling with opioid addictions. Immigration also pulls investment and wealth away from heartland states because investment flows towards the large immigrant populations living in the coastal states.



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  3. #2
    Been saying that for years.
    Quiz: Test Your "Income" Tax IQ!

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  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Danke View Post
    Been saying that for years.
    So have I, but it's nice to have correct and unbiased data to confirm that.

    Of course, science and correct math is racist, so...

  5. #4
    Ya , if they say 10 mil that means 20 .
    Do something Danke

  6. #5
    Lol at "accepted norm"
    You can maintain power over people, as long as you give them something. Rob a man of everything, and that man will no longer be in your power. Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

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    Trust principles; not people.
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  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by juleswin View Post
    Lol at "accepted norm"
    establishment estimate of 11 million
    And...

  8. #7

    Thumbs down Damn the numbers, full speed ahead amnesty

    It doesn't matter how high the real number is to the D&R party they'll all get DACA+ Comprehensive Immigration Reform amnesty soon. After the midterms most likely, but 2021 for sure.



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  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    Ya , if they say 10 mil that means 20 .

    And this study says 22 Million. , so I'm guessing over 44 million is the real number.
    Quiz: Test Your "Income" Tax IQ!

    Short Income Tax Video

    The Income Tax Is An Excise, And Excise Taxes Are Privilege Taxes

    The Federalist Papers, No. 15:

    Except as to the rule of appointment, the United States have an indefinite discretion to make requisitions for men and money; but they have no authority to raise either by regulations extending to the individual citizens of America.



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  11. #9
    The rebuttal talking points will be available soon. Zippy will let us know the minute they are ready.
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  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Danke View Post
    And this study says 22 Million. , so I'm guessing over 44 million is the real number.
    Well we can certainly use 22 to 44 as a starting point . Maybe it is as low as 20 or as high as 50 . What I do believe is they are using the types of services I want completely eliminated for everyone . Those are not the role of govt but private charity .
    Do something Danke

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Danke View Post
    And this study says 22 Million. , so I'm guessing over 44 million is the real number.
    Yup, and zippy tried to argue with me when I said 20M+.



    IS IT AN INVASION YET?
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  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Federalist View Post
    And...
    Official number is not accepted norm in this case. My issues with people like breitbart using terms like that is that I sense that they are trying to stir things up for no reason. And whenever I see people doing that, they begin to lose a lot of credibility in my book.

    If the yale study is correct then the official number needs to be corrected. That is all I have to say for now.
    You can maintain power over people, as long as you give them something. Rob a man of everything, and that man will no longer be in your power. Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

    Quote Originally Posted by LibertyEagle View Post
    Trust principles; not people.
    My Che avatar is my unique way of giving a big middle finger to the, the neocons, the globalists, imperialists and most importantly to the left and right political establishment who hate his guts till this day. My admiration for him ends where his anti imperialist pro communism ideology starts.

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Yup, and zippy tried to argue with me when I said 20M+.



    IS IT AN INVASION YET?
    #metoo
    Quiz: Test Your "Income" Tax IQ!

    Short Income Tax Video

    The Income Tax Is An Excise, And Excise Taxes Are Privilege Taxes

    The Federalist Papers, No. 15:

    Except as to the rule of appointment, the United States have an indefinite discretion to make requisitions for men and money; but they have no authority to raise either by regulations extending to the individual citizens of America.

  16. #14
    Trump should make a televised prime time address to the nation on these numbers from this study. That way there won't be any misunderstanding via the presstitutes going into the November elections.

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by juleswin View Post
    Official number is not accepted norm in this case. My issues with people like breitbart using terms like that is that I sense that they are trying to stir things up for no reason. And whenever I see people doing that, they begin to lose a lot of credibility in my book.

    If the yale study is correct then the official number needs to be corrected. That is all I have to say for now.
    That was my headline.

    BB used the phrase "establishment number".

    Are you denying that 11 million is the number most often used as being the "official" number?

    12.1 is the official number from the fedgov as of 2014.

    https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/fi...y%202014_1.pdf
    Last edited by Anti Federalist; 09-21-2018 at 07:56 PM.

  18. #16
    @PAF
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by juleswin View Post
    Official number is not accepted norm in this case. My issues with people like breitbart using terms like that is that I sense that they are trying to stir things up for no reason. And whenever I see people doing that, they begin to lose a lot of credibility in my book.

    If the yale study is correct then the official number needs to be corrected. That is all I have to say for now.
    Concern trolling again.
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    That is a lie.
    @Brian4Liberty, devil keeps spreading this lie.
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  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    And? I am fully aware of numbers and stats. None if this thread discusses efforts in solving the actual problems. Building that wall is a bandaid approach that will reduce freedom, liberty and fiscal responsibility. I do not compromise liberty for security or throw my money into toilets. That’s all that wall will ever accomplish.

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by PAF View Post
    And? I am fully aware of numbers and stats. None if this thread discusses efforts in solving the actual problems. Building that wall is a bandaid approach that will reduce freedom, liberty and fiscal responsibility. I do not compromise liberty for security or throw my money into toilets. That’s all that wall will ever accomplish.
    I don't support the wall, I want massive increases in patrols by the military or an expanded Border Patrol but you attempted to claim that there wasn't a real crisis and that is ridiculous.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    I don't support the wall, I want massive increases in patrols by the military or an expanded Border Patrol but you attempted to claim that there wasn't a real crisis and that is ridiculous.
    My thinking is that a wall will provide a greater deterrence at less cost.

    But I'm willing to do anything at this point.

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Federalist View Post
    My thinking is that a wall will provide a greater deterrence at less cost.

    But I'm willing to do anything at this point.
    I'm agnostic on the wall because I do believe it would be a force multiplier but it is very expensive and does require eminent domain, I'm not too worried about the "walls can keep us in" argument because I think that by the time we would need to leave the US the rest of the world would be even worse.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  25. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Federalist View Post
    My thinking is that a wall will provide a greater deterrence at less cost.

    But I'm willing to do anything at this point.
    that's what really scares them. The symbolic message of the wall.

  26. #23
    I am to expect all the libertarians to flee to mexico before the wall is built ?
    Do something Danke

  27. #24
    In before Zippy’s chart.

    22 million is about the populations of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Illinois put together.
    Do something Dodgers.



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  29. #25
    If it is accurate then the illegal immigrant crime rate will be half of what it is currently estimated as (per capita). I am trying to see how they arrived at their estimate.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 12-20-2018 at 07:51 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    The quality seems to have dropped significantly since I came here, I guess you get what you pay for.
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  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    If it is accurate then the illegal immigrant crime rate will be half of what it is currently estimated as (per capita). I am trying to see how they arrived at their estimate.
    I know among the illegals in South Florida, crime, for the most part, is not reported.

    This includes felonies.

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    I am to expect all the libertarians to flee to mexico before the wall is built ?
    Was going to but now that USMCA forced unionization is on the table I’m looking to expat elsewhere. What a shame, I’ve enjoyed Mexico the past dozen years and made some awesome friends down there. This welfare-state empire does indeed spread like cancer.

    Build that stupid wall, I don’t care anymore. Perhaps legal multi-generational Americans in Section 8 will choose to relocate and pick up the workload down at the border and elsewhere - if they can move their lazy asses off the couch, gather up the 6 kids from multiple fathers, stop watching wheel of fortune and oprah w. long enough.

    Either way I’m getting out of this stinking cesspool the libs/neocons, made, including some on this DTF board. Hell, there’s no regard for private property or contract rights anymore.
    Last edited by PAF; 12-20-2018 at 11:14 PM.

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by PAF View Post
    Was going to but now that USMCA forced unionization is on the table I’m looking to expat elsewhere. What a shame, I’ve enjoyed Mexico the past dozen years and made some awesome friends down there. This welfare-state empire does indeed spread like cancer.

    Build that stupid wall, I don’t care anymore. Perhaps legal multi-generational Americans in Section 8 will choose to relocate and pick up the workload down at the border and elsewhere - if they can move their lazy asses off the couch, gather up the 6 kids from multiple fathers, stop watching wheel of fortune and oprah w. long enough.

    Either way I’m getting out of this stinking cesspool the libs/neocons, made, including some on this DTF board.
    Via con Queso.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  33. #29
    bump
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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