Performances By A President's Party In His First Midterm

[Zippyjuan]

https://www.npr.org/2018/09/12/64681...ol-of-congress

Sorted by most to least House losses, based on Gallup approvals, Vital Statistics data

2010 — Obama 45% approval – Lost 63 House, Lost 6 Senate
1946 — Truman 33% approval — Lost 55 House, Lost 12 Senate
1994 — Clinton 46% approval – Lost 54 House, Lost 8 Senate
1974 — Ford 54% approval – Lost 48 House, Lost 4 Senate
1966 — Johnson 44% approval – Lost 48 House, Lost 4 Senate
1982 — Reagan 42% approval – Lost 26 House, Gained 1 Senate
1954 — Eisenhower 61% approval – Lost 18 House, Lost 1 Senate
1978 – Carter 49% approval – Lost 15 House, Lost 3 Senate
1970 — Nixon 58% approval – Lost 12 House, Gained 1 Senate
1990 — HW Bush 58% approval – Lost 8 House, Lost 1 Senate
1962 — Kennedy 61% approval – Lost 4 House, Gained 2 Senate
2002 — Bush 63% approval – Gained 8 House, Gained 1 Senate

Trump is currently running about a 40% approval rate.

[Swordsmyth]

Yawn, Trump defies precedents and the media lies about his approval rate more than usual.

[spudea]

It will be better than Reagan. The overall approval doesn't tell you approval of party voters. Which is ~90% for Trump.

[Zippyjuan]

It will be better than Reagan. The overall approval doesn't tell you approval of party voters. Which is ~90% for Trump.

The party voters will vote for Trump no matter what. Just as Dems will vote for their party candidates. However, that is only about a third of all voters for each. To win seats, you need to attract the independents and moderates. He isn't doing that currently. That is making what would normally be pretty safe seats now up for grabs.

[Grandmastersexsay]

Trump is currently running about a 40% approval rate.

47%

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public...ez_track_sep14

[spudea]

The party voters will vote for Trump no matter what. Just as Dems will vote for their party candidates. That is only about a third of voters though for each. To win seats, you need to attract the independents and moderates. He isn't doing that currently. That is making what would normally be pretty safe seats now up for grabs.

moderates are a dying breed of voter especially for mid-terms. You have to turn out your party loyalists or you get destroyed like Obama did in 2010.

[timosman]

All liberal shills should be given vacation time until after the midterms.

[Zippyjuan]

47%

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public...ez_track_sep14

Rasmussen is always higher than everybody else. That is why Trump likes to cite it. To get a better number, Real Clear Politics averages polls. They currently have his approval rating at 40.9% in that average. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...oval-6179.html

FiveThirtyEight also combines polls. They have his approval at 40.2. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

Trump says that would be 25 points higher without the Mueller probe. If Trump didn't tweet about it all the time, most people would probably be completely unaware of any probe.

[Pauls' Revere]

https://www.npr.org/2018/09/12/64681...ol-of-congress



Trump is currently running about a 40% approval rate.

I don't see any correlation whatsoever.

[Swordsmyth]

Trump says that would be 25 points higher without the Mueller probe. If Trump didn't tweet about it all the time, most people would probably be completely unaware of any probe.

LOL, the MSM hardly talks about anything else.

[Grandmastersexsay]

Rasmussen is always higher than everybody else. That is why Trump likes to cite it. To get a better number, Real Clear Politics averages polls. They currently have his approval rating at 40.9% in that average. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...oval-6179.html

FiveThirtyEight also combines polls. They have his approval at 40.2. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

Trump says that would be 25 points higher without the Mueller probe. If Trump didn't tweet about it all the time, most people would probably be completely unaware of any probe.

Real Clear Politics did so poorly at predicting the 2016 election why? Because they're an aggregate of polls, where the majority are biased MSM polls. Rasmussen was the closest as far as the popular vote went, having Hillary +2, of any other polling group they used.

[Zippyjuan]

Real Clear Politics did so poorly at predicting the 2016 election why? Because they're an aggregate of polls, where the majority are biased MSM polls. Rasmussen was the closest as far as the popular vote went, having Hillary +2, of any other polling group they used.

Their (RealClearPolitics) final popular vote poll was Clinton 45.5% of the popular vote and Trump 42.2- plus or minus three percent.

Rasmussen's final poll: Clinton 45%, Trump 43%. Basically identical with margins of error.

Actual final: Clinton 48.2%, Trump 46.1%.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls...tein-5952.html