The truth about illegal immigrants and crime

[Swordsmyth]

Video at: https://www.yahoo.com/news/truth-ill...012410629.html

[Zippyjuan]

[Swordsmyth]

Bunk numbers from open-borders advocates, watch the video.

Coincidence.

[tebowlives]

Was looking for a thread on this. I've been reading that Arrest rates vs Conviction rates causes a difference. Ice has them detained and not in prison. Illegals get deported.
One thing I haven't heard brought up, length of time in America. Group A has 100 people who have been here 1 month and have committed 2 crimes. Group B has 100 people who have been here 10 years and have committed 4 crimes. So the crime rate for group B is twice as high?????

[PAF]

Was looking for a thread on this. I've been reading that Arrest rates vs Conviction rates causes a difference. Ice has them detained and not in prison. Illegals get deported.
One thing I haven't heard brought up, length of time in America. Group A has 100 people who have been here 1 month and have committed 2 crimes. Group B has 100 people who have been here 10 years and have committed 4 crimes. So the crime rate for group B is twice as high?????

Undocumented Immigrant Offending Rate Lower Than U.S.-Born Citizen Rate

Analysis of Texas arrest records indicates a consistent trend across violent, drug, property, and traffic offenses between 2012 and 2018.


National Institute of Justice
September 12, 2024

An NIJ-funded study examining data from the Texas Department of Public Safety estimated the rate at which undocumented immigrants are arrested for committing crimes. The study found that undocumented immigrants are arrested at less than half the rate of native-born U.S. citizens for violent and drug crimes and a quarter the rate of native-born citizens for property crimes.[1]

The question of how often undocumented immigrants commit crimes is not easy to answer. Most previous research on crime commission by immigrant populations has been unable to differentiate undocumented immigrants from documented immigrants. As a result, most studies treat all immigrants as a uniform group, regardless of whether they are in the country legally.

The estimates in this study come from Texas criminal records that include the immigration status of everyone arrested in the state from 2012 to 2018. These data enabled researchers to separate arrests for crimes committed by undocumented immigrants from those committed by documented immigrants and native-born U.S. citizens. (For more detail on the study’s data sources and methodology, see the sidebar “What Makes the Texas Data Unique?”)

The researchers tracked these three groups’ arrest rates across seven years (2012-2018) and examined specific types of crime, including homicides and other violent crimes.[2] They used these arrest rates as proxies for the rates of crime commission for the three groups. It should be noted that arrest is a commonly used, but imperfect measure of crime that in part reflects law enforcement activity rather than actual offending rates.

During this time, undocumented immigrants had the lowest offending rates overall for both total felony crime (see exhibit 1) and violent felony crime (see exhibit 2) compared to other groups. U.S.-born citizens had the highest offending rates overall for most crime types, with documented immigrants generally falling between the other two groups.

Exhibit 1.Total felony crime offending rates in Texas for U.S.-born citizens, documented immigrants, and undocumented immigrants





Exhibit 2.Violent felony crime offending rates in Texas for U.S.-born citizens, documented immigrants, and undocumented immigrants





Researchers also looked specifically at homicide arrest trends. These rates tend to fluctuate more than the overall violent crime arrest rates because murders are relatively rare compared to other crimes. In addition, a large share of homicides go unsolved. Still, undocumented immigrants had the lowest homicide arrest rates throughout the entire study period, averaging less than half the rate at which U.S.-born citizens were arrested for homicide.[3] (The homicide rate for documented immigrants fluctuated. Sometimes it was higher than the rate for U.S.-born citizens and sometimes it was lower.)

Every other violent and property crime type the researchers examined followed the same general pattern. The offending rates of undocumented immigrants were consistently lower than both U.S.-born citizens and documented immigrants for assault, sexual assault, robbery, burglary, theft, and arson.

For drug offenses, too, undocumented immigrants were less than half as likely to be arrested as native-born U.S. citizens.[4] Moreover, the drug crime arrest rate for the undocumented population held steady throughout the seven years of data, while the rate for native-born citizens increased almost 30% during that time. As a result, undocumented immigrants had a smaller share of arrests for drug crimes in 2018 than they had in 2012.

Finally, the researchers conducted statistical tests to determine whether the share of crimes committed by undocumented immigrants had increased for any offense types between 2012 and 2018. They concluded, “There is no evidence that the prevalence of undocumented immigrant crime has grown for any category.”[5] As with drug offenses, evidence suggests the share of property and traffic crimes committed by undocumented immigrants decreased or remained close to constant throughout the period.


https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/...n-citizen-rate

[spudea]

It literally doesn't matter. Regardless of the "rate" of crime, THESE ARE 100% FULLY PREVENTABLE CRIMES IF WE SIMPLY ENFORCE OUR BORDERS AND IMMIGRATION LAW TO KEEP THESE CRIMINALS OUT OF OUR COUNTRY!

[tebowlives]

deleted everything that did not pertain to my post.

You need a thought process to take it to the next level on this issue.

I'll make it simplier than what it was. Group A represents illegals. Groups B represents Americans

Group A has 100 people who have been here 1 month and have committed 2 crimes. Group B has 100 people who have been here 10 years and has committed 4 crimes.

Q:Is the crime rate for Group B is twice as high?????
A:No because Group A commits 2 crimes every month and Group B commits 2 crimes every 5 years

When you quote my post respond to what I posted instead of posting irrelevant nonsense

btw - Those coming into this country are low wage earners. We know low wage earners commit higher rates of crime. Do a graph for that one will you?

[PAF]

You need a thought process to take it to the next level on this issue.

I'll make it simplier than what it was. Group A represents illegals. Groups B represents Americans

Group A has 100 people who have been here 1 month and have committed 2 crimes. Group B has 100 people who have been here 10 years and has committed 4 crimes.

Q:Is the crime rate for Group B is twice as high?????
A:No because Group A commits 2 crimes every month and Group B commits 2 crimes every 5 years

When you quote my post respond to what I posted instead of posting irrelevant nonsense

btw - Those coming into this country are low wage earners. We know low wage earners commit higher rates of crime. Do a graph for that one will you?

You posed the following:

Group A has 100 people who have been here 1 month and have committed 2 crimes. Group B has 100 people who have been here 10 years and have committed 4 crimes. So the crime rate for group B is twice as high?????

You couldn’t get more vague than that, which was nonsense from the get go. Based on what data/source? Based on what crime? J-walking? Speeding? Murder? Chewing bubble-gum at a private event which posted a sign no chewing bubble-gum?

It has been said that the average American commits 3 felonies per day, so I really don’t know what you’re getting at unless you provide more parameters and or data/source of which you are eluding.

[tebowlives]

You posed the following:




You couldn’t get more vague than that, which was nonsense from the get go. Based on what data/source? Based on what crime? J-walking? Speeding? Murder? Chewing bubble-gum at a private event which posted a sign no chewing bubble-gum?

It has been said that the average American commits 3 felonies per day, so I really don’t know what you’re getting at unless you provide more parameters and or data/source of which you are eluding.

I'm not being vague, you're just not thinking. Or maybe you don't care about the truth. I don't need a data source.
Again how hard is it to understand that people who have been here for 20 years will commit more crimes than someone who has been here for 1 month?

[Matt4Liberty]

Two flaws with the chart. It only counts convictions, so natural born citizens are going to have an easier time getting convicted. There's also way more natural born citizens in the US then criminal aliens (for now anyway)

[Swordsmyth]

Two flaws with the chart. It only counts convictions, so natural born citizens are going to have an easier time getting convicted. There's also way more natural born citizens in the US then criminal aliens (for now anyway)

And leftist jurisdictions refuse to prosecute and lie about their status if they do record the crime.

[Swordsmyth]

A False Narrative, Based on Bad Data

As noted above, for decades, open-borders proponents have parroted the same narrative: “Illegal aliens commit less crime than native-born citizens.” However, this claim typically rests on studies that manipulate data in order to support the fictitious “illegal aliens = less crime” narrative.
Why are the majority of studies of illegal alien criminality so flawed? First, as Peter Kirsanow, of National Review notes, “Illegal-immigrant crime calculations conveniently and invariably steal a base by leaving out the millions of crimes committed by illegal immigrants related to procuring fraudulent social security numbers, obtaining false drivers’ licenses, using fraudulent green cards, and improperly accessing public benefits.”^[2] That error is then compounded when researchers intentionally elect to leave out broad classes of crimes for example, drug offenses — as the Cato Institute frequently does.^[3]
Secondly, most federal, state and local government agencies do not collect data on the rates at which illegal aliens are convicted of crimes. Most likely, this is due to political correctness, and a desire to keep the truth about the number of crimes committed by illegal aliens from coming to light. Peter Kirsanow is one of the few who has commented openly on this tendency. He states, “Unfortunately, almost every public official not named Jeff Sessions guards against disclosure of illegal-immigrant crime data more tenaciously than disclosure of nuclear launch codes.”^[4] Regardless of why this information is not collected, the end result is that there are a limited number of sources for obtaining data on crimes committed by known illegal aliens.
Finally, most researchers tend to ignore the few established sources that provide data on criminal acts by known illegal aliens. They point to all types of alleged, and typically baseless, “flaws” in this data, ranging from “limited sample size” to an inability to determine whether illegal aliens are being counted more than once. In actuality, however, the only real flaw, from the perspective of mainstream research organizations, is that examinations of data on criminal activity by known illegal aliens tend to establish that those who enter the U.S. in violation of our immigration laws also commit other crimes at a higher rate.
This should not be surprising to anyone. The simple fact that illegal aliens violated American immigration laws – and must continuously violate other federal, state and local laws in order to mask their ongoing illegal presence in this country – demonstrates a blatant lack of respect for the rule of law.
Getting A Realistic Portrait Of Illegal Alien Crime

How FAIR Researched This Issue

This report examines the rate at which illegal aliens are incarcerated in state and local correc- tional facilities after being convicted of a crime. To determine that rate:

• We analyzed incarceration data from the federal government’s State Criminal Alien Assistance Program (SCAAP) and compared it to the public records of state and local prisons.^[5]
• Via SCAAP, state entities apply to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to obtain reimbursement for the costs associated with incarcerating illegal aliens.
• Accordingly, the rate at which a state seeks reimbursement provides a good snapshot of the number of illegal aliens in its criminal justice system.
• In order to estimate how many illegal aliens are currently incarcerated in a given state, we relied on data from the most recent SCAAP report published by the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA).^[6]
• Our other calculations are based on commonly available state corrections/criminal justice reports and other non-SCAPP federal data.

The Data We Used

This report focuses on Arizona, California, Florida, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Texas and Washington because:

• The majority of the illegal population in the United States lives within these states.
• Individually, they all have significant, dense illegal alien populations.
• They consistently report to SCAAP, and therefore have the most reliable and complete data.
• The majority of the population in these states lives within a SCAAP-reporting district.
• There is little to suggest that our conclusions would be significantly different were we somehow able to obtain valid data for those jurisdictions that either do not participate in SCAAP or that do not produce enough SCAAP data to reliably estimate their total numbers of incarcerated illegal aliens.

Taken together, these ten reporting states represent a statistically significant sample. Although the calculations in this report are specific to those states, they include 65 percent of the total illegal alien population in the U.S. Therefore, even if the majority of unlawfully-present foreigners in the states not covered were never arrested, the rate at which illegal aliens are incarcerated would not change appreciably.
This report does not cover illegal aliens who have been convicted of federal criminal charges and are serving time in a Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) facility. Therefore, it does not include those illegal aliens incarcerated for committing immigration-related crimes such as illegal re-entry, welfare fraud, or identity theft.
Summary of Findings

Key Findings in Brief

• FAIR found that in all SCAAP-reporting states along the Southern Border, and in SCAAP-reporting interior states that are preferred destinations for unlawful migrants, illegal aliens are incarcerated at a much higher rate than citizens and lawfully-present aliens.^[7]
• SCAAP data indicate that illegal aliens are typically at least three times as likely to be incarcerated than citizens and lawfully-present aliens.
• Since the SCAAP program only includes those illegal aliens who have, at some point, been convicted of a crime, the only reasonable conclusion is that illegal aliens must commit crimes at a higher rate than citizens or lawfully-present aliens in order to be incarcerated at such high rates.
• These findings stand in stark contrast to the narrative pushed by the open-borders lobby that illegal aliens are less likely to commit crimes compared to citizens or lawfully-present aliens.

Detailed Analysis of Findings in Three States

In Arizona, a state where drug trafficking across the long and sparsely-protected border is widespread, nearly 3 percent of all illegal aliens end up finding themselves incarcerated in a state or local facility at some point during the year. In comparison, roughly 0.7 percent of citizens and lawfully-present immigrants in Arizona are incarcerated – meaning illegal aliens are more than 4 times as likely to be incarcerated.
New Jersey is a state with relatively low incarceration rates, but illegal aliens are 5.5 times more likely than U.S. citizens or lawfully-present aliens to be incarcerated.
Even in Texas – a state with an allegedly “lower” number of illegal aliens committing crimes, unlawfully-present aliens remain 60 percent more likely to be incarcerated than citizens and lawfully-present immigrants. The slightly lower incarceration rate compared to other states is likely due to the increased federal law enforcement presence at and near the state’s border with Mexico, as well as a deterrent effect that stems from Texas’ willingness to prosecute illegal aliens and turn them over to federal law enforcement. As discussed in greater detail below, in recent years, the Lone Star State has dealt with more than 273,000 crimes committed by 175,000 illegal aliens.
As noted above, these alarming numbers do not include those illegal aliens currently serving sentences on federal criminal charges, as reported by the Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP).^[8] Offenses committed by illegal aliens that may result in a federal prison sentence include crimes ranging from document fraud to alien smuggling, drug trafficking and murder.
The Anecdotal Evidence Lines Up with the Statistical Evidence

Most Americans do not wade into complex statistical data on a regular basis. But anyone who follows the evening news can see that there appears to be an unacceptably large number of illegal aliens committing serious crimes in the United States.
Listed below are several examples of particularly heinous crimes committed by illegal aliens over the past five years:

• In Tennessee, an illegal alien from Guatemala was sentenced to 50 years in prison for molesting a 6-year-old girl. Edwin Velasquez Curuchiche snuck into the girl’s home twice in 2015 and recorded himself molesting her in her sleep. Curuchiche was originally apprehended in 2013 for illegally entering the United States. Due to “catch-and-release” policies at the time, he was released and subsequently never appeared for his immigration hearing.^[9]
• On July 1, 2015, Jose Ines Garcia Zarate shot and killed Kate Steinle in San Francisco.^[10] Zarate had been sentenced to prison on numerous occasions prior to killing Steinle, but San Francisco’s “sanctuary city” status allowed him to be released back onto the streets despite ICE requesting that he be held until they could apprehend and ultimately deport him.^[11]
• In 2016 in Kansas, an illegal alien from Mexico murdered a mother and kidnapped her 6-day-old baby. Yesenia Sesmas had recently suffered from a miscarriage and faked pregnancy for the following months.^[12] Sesmas, who was living in Texas at the time, traveled to Wichita when she found out a friend she previously worked with just had a baby. She shot her friend in the head and kidnapped the child.^[13]
• In 2017, several MS-13 members “stabbed [a man] more than 100 times, decapitated him, and then cut out his heart” in Maryland. One of the alleged attackers, Miguel Angel Lopez-Abrego, is an illegal alien who was later caught in North Carolina.^[14]
• Yet another despicable act of violence occurred in Maryland as well when MS-13 members savagely beat a 15-year-old girl with a bat 28 times for “not doing a good job as an MS-13 prostitute.” Miguel Angel Ayala-Rivera allegedly ordered the beating and also made large sums of money from prostituting other underage girls. Ayala-Rivera is an illegal alien.^[15]
• In Iowa in August 2018, an illegal alien from Mexico was charged with killing Mollie Tibetts. She had gone missing after going for a jog the month prior in a case that also received national attention.^[16] Cristhian Bahena Rivera admitted to murdering Tibbetts after stalking her while she was jogging.^[17]

The open-borders lobby maintains that sensational cases simply create a mistaken impression that illegal aliens are committing crimes at a higher rate than their lawfully-present peers or U.S. citizens. But the anecdotal evidence appears to line up with the statistical evidence provided by SCAAP.
These vignettes received the most media coverage, but they represent only a small fraction of the thousands of crimes committed by illegal aliens across the United States every year.
In Texas alone between June 2011 and July 2018, more than 175,000 illegal aliens were booked into state and local jails. Within this time period, they were charged with more than 273,000 criminal offenses. These crimes included 505 homicide charges, 30,408 assaults, 5,396 burglaries, 34,555 drug offenses, and 365 kidnapping charges.^[18] By simply doing the math based on this data alone, then comparing it with the number of illegal aliens residing in the state of Texas, it becomes clear that illegal aliens are incarcerated at a higher rate than U.S. citizens or lawfully-present aliens.

More at: https://www.fairus.org/issue/illegal...-rate-citizens

[Swordsmyth]

I personally knew someone who was a victim of crime in San Francisco. The attacker was black, he was white. The SF Police wrote a report saying that both were Hispanic...

But we can trust the leftist jurisdictions to report about their legal status, they would never lie about that......