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Thread: China: African Swine Fever Threatens Pork Production

  1. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    You must spread some reputation around....
    link: https://www.agriculture.com/news/liv...-rewards-in-us



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  3. #32
    Chinese pig farmers, already reeling from rising feed costs in Beijing's tariff fight with U.S. President Donald Trump, face a new blow from an outbreak of African swine fever that has sent an economic shockwave through the countryside.First detected in August, the disease has killed 1 million pigs, prompting authorities to restrict shipments of most of China's 700 million swine, even though nearly all are still healthy. That has disrupted supplies of pork, China's staple meat, to big cities while prices collapsed in areas with an oversupply of pigs that farmers are barred from shipping to other provinces.
    "I can only manage to break even at the current price," said a breeder on the outskirts of Shenyang, northeast of Beijing, where the first case was reported Aug. 3. She said she was rearing about 100 pigs and would give only her surname, Yan.
    "Unless we see a higher price for pigs, all my work this year would have gone for nothing," Yan said.


    On Friday, the first cases were reported in Beijing, the capital. Authorities said a total of 86 pigs at two farms in suburban Fangshan district died.
    Also Friday, Xiamen Airlines, a mid-size Chinese carrier, announced it was suspending use of pork in in-flight meals.
    The outbreak adds to a swarm of challenges for Chinese leaders as they grapple with Trump over Beijing's technology policy and try to shore up cooling growth in the world's second-largest economy.
    "Farmers have been losing money in pig-breeding provinces for the past couple of months and their confidence has been shattered," said Feng Yonghui, chief analyst of soozhu.com, a pork industry consultant.
    The cost of raising pigs spiked after Beijing retaliated for Trump's tariff hikes on Chinese goods by slapping 25 percent duties on imported U.S. soybeans used as animal feed.
    American farmers supplied about one-third of China's imports of 96 million tons of soybeans last year, while its own farms produce about 15 million tons a year.
    Soy prices have risen by as much as 4 and 5 percent per month since then in some areas.
    Importers are buying more soy from Brazil and Argentina, the other major exporters. Authorities have encouraged breeders to look at other protein sources such as canola.
    Since the first swine fever case in August, sick animals have been found in areas from Jilin province in the northeast to Yunnan on China's southern border with Vietnam.
    Authorities responded by banning shipments of all pigs from any province with one case.
    Authorities have found 73 outbreaks in domestic pigs and one infected wild boar in 47 cities in 20 provinces, according to an Agriculture Ministry official, Feng Zhongwu.


    It wasn't clear how the virus reached China but it was found to be genetically similar to versions in Russia, Poland and Georgia, said another official, Huang Bao. Huang said genetic testing showed the virus in the wild boar in Jilin province was unrelated to that in domesticated pigs.
    A big share of China's population still depends on farming even after the country became one of the biggest manufacturers. The share of the workforce employed in farming has fallen to 18 percent from more than 50 percent two decades ago, according to World Bank data, but farm households still account for 250 million people.
    The southwestern province of Sichuan, which accounts for some 10 percent of Chinese pork production, reported its first case last week. That extended swine fever's reach to all major Chinese pig breeding areas.

    With Sichuan included, restrictions on the movement of pigs now extend to some 90 percent of the Chinese industry's animals, according to Feng of soozhu.com.
    "The impact of the government policies is bigger than the epidemic itself," Feng said.

    In the northeast, the ban has led to a pork glut in markets, pushing down prices by 20 percent compared with three months ago, according to state media. Meanwhile, retail prices have jumped 30 percent in Chongqing, a city of 9 million people in the southwest.
    The outbreak could cause longer-term disruption if farmers respond by raising fewer pigs next year, leading to shortages and higher prices.
    Swine fever is "more troublesome" than earlier animal diseases, said Tan of Zero Power.
    "Farmers and consumers may panic and cause greater damage to the pork industry," he said.
    The government maintains stocks of frozen pork in case of shortages but has yet to say whether any will be released this year.
    Yan, the breeder in Shenyang, said she will skip buying piglets to rear this year but will keep sows to produce more.

    More at: https://www.yahoo.com/news/swine-fev...--finance.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  5. #33
    AN increase in pork consumption over Chinese New Year festivities could cause fresh outbreaks of African swine fever, a veterinary expert has warned as contaminated meat risks being exported to other nations.

    The disease could potentially obliterate herds of animals, with recent figures showing there are currently 87 outbreaks worldwide. Figures from the World Organisation for Animal Health confirmed 87 outbreaks are happening in eight countries worldwide. In China at least 200,000 pigs have been culled with 100 farms suffering outbreaks of the disease since August last year.

    Reported in Reuters, analyst with consultancy China-America Commodity Data Analytics Yao Guilin said: “The African swine fever situation is only getting worse. Small farms, big farms, slaughterhouses, feed - the whole production chain basically got hit.”
    A farm with over 73,000 pigs last week suffered an outbreak of the fever, which is the biggest farm to date to be hit by the disease.
    The disease is highly contagious but cannot be caught by humans. It can however be carried in contaminated meat such as pork chops.
    Chinese New Year is set to take place on February 5 and will see an increase in the consumption of pork as the country's most popular meat.


    Professor of veterinary medicine at City University of Hong Kong Dirk Pfeiffer said China is the “Himalayas of pigs.”
    China is home to between 50 and 60 percent of the worlds pig population.
    Professor Pfeiffer said: “With Chinese New Year coming up, there will be more demand and more trade in pork and it’s likely that there will be an increase in outbreaks.”
    The professor warned celebrations will encourage pork to be moved around the country, which is illegal.

    More at: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...ver-world-news
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  6. #34
    I think pigs should be able to migrate across borders.

  7. #35
    Meanwhile, as the highly-contagious African swine fever devastates Asian herds and Chinese hog inventories tumble, hog prices traded in Chicago soared amid speculation that China’s herd culling will force the nation to import more American pork. June futures soared 11% in the week ended Friday, a record gain for the contract.
    Shares of meat producers also climbed, with Tyson Foods, the biggest U.S. meat company, up 4.7% this week. Pork accounts for 11% of its revenue. Shares of Brazilian food producers JRS and BRF have also surged in recent days. JBS, which gets 10% of its revenue from U.S. pork, is up 12%.

    China has also boosted purchases is the domestic market, with Bloomberg noting that pork prices have jumped across the Pacific as well, boosting stocks of hog breeders like Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foodstuff. Chuying Agro-Pastoral Group's shares plunged 37% in September as swine fever attacked its herds and it resorted to paying bond coupons in ham. Its stock rose 64% last month.
    Since there's no sign that the Chinese pork supply crunch will fade soon, it is likely that pork CPI, one of the biggest components of China's CPI basket and which has been declining for the past two years, will rebound resulting in a jump in broader Chinese inflation, potentially leading to adverse implications for China's recent attempts to reflate the economy at all costs.



    Meanwhile, as Bloomberg's Sebastian Boyd notes, poultry prices have been rising as many Chinese consumers would rather have chicken, even though the virus doesn't affect humans, resulting in a Chinese food inflation double whammy.

    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...rk-prices-soar
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  8. #36
    According to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, the outbreak in China has already spread to Vietnam, where 79 outbreaks have been confirmed.

    More at: https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/1...inese-outbreak
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  9. #37
    An absolutely devastating disease is wiping out herds of pigs all over Asia, and most people in the western world don’t even realize what is happening. Since it was first detected last August, there have been 116 officially reported outbreaks of African Swine Fever in China, and since that time it has rapidly spread to surrounding nations such as Cambodia and Vietnam. African Swine Fever is not harmful to humans, but the vast majority of the pigs that catch it end up dead. It spreads very quickly and there is no cure, and this outbreak has already driven global pork prices through the roof. If this crisis continues to escalate, we are potentially talking about a crippling blow to global food production.

    China raises and consumes far more pigs than anyone else in the world, and it is also the epicenter of this crisis.
    At this point we don’t know exactly how many pigs that they have lost, but we have some numbers that at least give us an idea. For example, the Chinese government admitted that China’s pig herd was 13 percent smaller in January compared to a year earlier…
    China’s pig herd fell 13 percent in January compared with the same month a year earlier, while the number of breeding sows was down 15 percent from the previous year, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
    China once had a population of 430 million pigs, and taking 13 percent of that number would give us a total of 55.9 million pigs that have been lost.
    But there have also been allegations of a “cover-up”, and some believe that the true number of pigs that have been lost is closer to 100 million.
    In either case, we are talking about potentially apocalyptic losses.
    And these losses are really starting to move global pork prices. Over the last two weeks alone, we have witnessed a 20 percent increase
    Pork prices have been creeping higher since February, as trading companies realized that there is less stock of hogs and market supply will become even less.
    “(The) pork price increased to 14.55 Yuan (USD$2.17) per kilogram last week, compared to 12.11 Yuan (USD$1.80) two or three weeks ago — (price) increased 20% in two weeks,” said Jun Wang from China Agricultural University.
    Hog futures are rising even faster. Over the past month, they have gone up nearly 50 percent
    U.S. hog prices have surged the past few weeks on signs that Chinese buyers have turned to the U.S. to make up for the dwindling of China’s pig herds because of African swine fever (ASF), said a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article on March 27. U.S. hog futures prices have rocketed nearly 50% higher in the past month, as expectations rose that China would use American imports to fulfill its pork supply needs.

    All over the world, anything with pork in it is going to start costing a lot more. And when you couple this with all of the other disasters that have hit global food production in recent months, the truth is that we are potentially facing a major global food crisis later in 2019.
    And remember, this outbreak of African Swine Fever is far from over. In fact, fresh outbreaks continue to come in from all over China
    Reports of another outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in China’s Hubei province in the central part of the country were confirmed on March 31.
    According to China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, all 83 pigs on one farm were infected with the disease, which killed 73 of them. At the second 142-head pig farm, eight hogs were infected and five died, the statement said.
    In Vietnam, the prime minister is officially freaking out as this disease pops up in various areas around his nation…
    Vietnam’s prime minister has called for “drastic measures” to fight the spread of African swine fever in the Southeast Asian country, state media reported on Tuesday.
    The highly contagious disease, which is incurable in pigs but harmless to humans, has spread rapidly across neighboring China since August, and has been found in seven areas in Vietnam, the state-run Vietnam News Service reported.
    95 million people live in Vietnam, and pork accounts for approximately three-quarters of all meat consumption in that country.
    If a large percentage of the pigs are suddenly wiped out, that is going to cause massive problems.
    African Swine Fever is also ripping through pig herds in Cambodia
    According to the Director General , Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries , General Directorate of Animal Health and Production (GDAHP), Phnom Penh, Cambodia, an ASF outbreak has been reported in backyard pigs in Rattanakiri province in northeast Cambodia, which borders Vietnam.
    Four hundred of the 500 pigs on the farm died and the remaining killed and properly disposed.


    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...opulation-pork
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  10. #38
    US retail prices for boneless hams hit $4.31 per pound in March, the highest since 2015.
    In the European Union, wholesale pig prices have climbed 16% in two months, while lean hog futures traded on the CME are higher by 32% since the February lows.

    But none of this compares to what is about to hit China, where consumers are bracing for a shock as pork prices may surge more than 70% in the second half of this year an agriculture ministry official said this week, as the country's pork output plunges as much as 30% this year, according to Rabobank, and could spike Chinese CPI in the coming months, sharply limiting the PBOC's efforts to stimulate and boost liquidity in the world's (credit-driven) growth dynamo and curbing China's latest attempt to reflate the world and boost global economic growth.
    “Some meat that used to go to the U.S. is now going to China because it pays more,” Jens Munk Ebbesen, director of food safety and veterinary issues at the Danish Agriculture & Food Council, told Bloomberg.
    Far from limited to just pigs, the virus which has upended China’s meat industry, will have devastating - for meat lovers and pork shorts - and far-reaching effects, from pushing up food prices to increasing demand for other meats, like chicken and beef.
    Seeking to frontrun some of the price surges, China recently made its biggest-ever weekly purchase of US pork as shares of Brazil's JBS, the world’s largest meat producer, rallied 8% this week.
    "African swine fever has sparked a rally across global protein stocks, but it’s not too late to buy in,” Morgan Stanley analysts led by Rafael Shin said in a report to clients this week. “We think the rally has only begun and that the long-term impacts of ASF are still not understood."
    While this is terrible news for pork consumers, it's some long overdue good news for embattled US farmers, who will be able to sell their hogs for higher prices as a result of the soaring demand. And while producers may start to breed more livestock, the process takes time.

    "It will be a good moment for producers," said Didier Delzescaux, the director of French pork council Inaporc.
    Finally, it’s not just China that’s grappling with the spread of disease: pork prices may soar even more, as fears spread in Europe that the virus, which was detected in wild boars in Belgium last year, could infect domestic hogs in major exporters, such as France and Germany. France is in the process of building a fence running dozens of kilometers near the border in an effort to contain the disease, unfortunately in a stark comparison to similar "fortifications" undertaken during World War II, this venture will fail spectacularly.



    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...g-around-globe
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  11. #39

    https://twitter.com/kannbwx/status/1118234758251597824


    Ironic.. when China (a country you would not associate with the highest standards)
    are wary of growth steroids in US food.
    Last edited by goldenequity; 04-19-2019 at 05:38 AM.

  12. #40
    African Swine Fever is the greatest threat to global food production that we have seen since World War II ended.
    As you will see below, the disease has now spread “to every province in mainland China”, and it has now infected “an estimated 150-200 million pigs”. To put that number in perspective, that is more pigs than the entire U.S. pork industry produces in an entire year. In other words, the equivalent of the entire U.S. pork industry has just been wiped out. On top of that, African Swine Fever has also spread to Cambodia, Tibet, Romania, South Africa and Vietnam. The losses are staggering, and this crisis continues to get worse with each passing week.
    Earlier today I came across a Canadian news article entitled “Why bacon could get a lot more expensive”, and in that article a Canadian expert claimed that there are “tens of millions of pigs who have disappeared” in China…

    “The meat of choice in China is pig and disease has been devastating for them,” Friendship said. “They have lost a lot of pigs and they will be doing lots of culling.”
    He noted that although official figures from China suggest the outbreak’s effect have been minimal, experts estimate that “we’re dealing with tens of millions of pigs who have disappeared.”


    Friendship estimated the decrease in pigs is roughly the equivalent of what Canada and the U.S. produce combined. And this lack has created a vacuum.
    That claim is consistent with the information that I put into an article about this crisis a few weeks ago, but I decided to go hunting for some even newer numbers.
    So eventually I ended up over at PorkBusiness.com, and according to them African Swine Fever “is now affecting an estimated 150-200 million pigs” in China…
    Production losses from African swine fever (ASF) have eclipsed initial estimates, Rabobank said on Thursday. In 2019, Rabobankexpects Chinese pork production losses of 25% to 35%, creating new challenges and opportunities for animal protein exporters.
    “African Swine Fever has spread to every province in mainland China and is now affecting an estimated 150-200 million pigs,” said Christine McCracken, RaboResearch animal protein analyst. “The expected 30% loss in pork production is unprecedented. These losses cannot easily be replaced by other proteins like chicken, duck and seafood, nor will larger pork imports be able to fully offset the loss.”
    When I use the term “plague”, I am not using it lightly. I have never heard of a single disease wiping out this many farm animals before.
    Have you?
    We are potentially talking about an absolutely crippling blow to the global food supply.
    And pork prices are already starting to skyrocket. The following comes from the same Canadian article that I mentioned earlier
    At the beginning of 2019, Canadian farmers earned $150 for every pig shipped to market but now they’re making between $220 to $225, he said.
    Since first being detected on a small hog farm in northern China last August, African Swine Fever has spread like wildfire, but so far it hasn’t reached the United States.


    There is no vaccine, and there is no cure. And even if this outbreak was ended immediately, it would likely take the Chinese pork industry many years to recover. The following comes from CNN
    “China normally accounts for 49% of global pork consumption, while consuming 28% of the world’s meat supply,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at INTL FCStone. “As such, this is a big problem for China, and we expect it to be a five to seven year problem before production can be restored.”
    Of course this outbreak is not likely to end any time soon. In fact, all of the experts expect African Swine Fever to continue to spread.
    So pork prices will continue to skyrocket, and prices for chicken and beef will also rise aggressively as many consumers shift to alternatives to pork.

    More at: https://www.infowars.com/an-estimate...l-proportions/
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  14. #41
    Hong Kong culls 6,000 pigs after African swine fever found
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ne-fever-found




    Hong Kong will cull 6,000 pigs after its first ever case of African swine fever was found in an animal at a slaughterhouse close to the border with mainland China.

    Pork is China’s staple meat and its price and availability is considered a matter of national concern. Shortfalls in supply have increased demand for pork from producers in the US, with whom China is locked in a tariff battle.

    The territory’s fresh pork supply would be reduced in the near future but there would still be a limited supply of live pigs available from another slaughterhouse.
    Last edited by goldenequity; 05-11-2019 at 04:45 AM.

  15. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by goldenequity View Post
    Hong Kong culls 6,000 pigs after African swine fever found
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ne-fever-found




    Hong Kong will cull 6,000 pigs after its first ever case of African swine fever was found in an animal at a slaughterhouse close to the border with mainland China.

    Pork is China’s staple meat and its price and availability is considered a matter of national concern. Shortfalls in supply have increased demand for pork from producers in the US, with whom China is locked in a tariff battle.

    The territory’s fresh pork supply would be reduced in the near future but there would still be a limited supply of live pigs available from another slaughterhouse.
    ...

    Concerns about the spread of African swine fever to the US recently led organisers to cancel the World Pork Expo scheduled for June in the state of Iowa. Denmark has begun erecting a 70km fence along the German border to keep out wild boars in an attempt to prevent the spread of the fever, which could jeopardise the country’s valuable pork industry. Russia has been hit hard and some have speculated the Chinese outbreak may have originated from there.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  16. #43
    Brazilian exports of soybeans to China, by far their largest market, fell 13 percent in the first four months of 2019 versus a year ago, according to a report from Cargonave shipping agency released on Wednesday. Soybean exports to China were 20.07 million tonnes from January to end of April, from 23.08 million tonnes in the same period a year earlier, the report showed.
    Brazil shipped a total 27.6 million tonnes of soybeans to all destinations in the first four months of this year versus 29.74 million tonnes last year. China’s share of total exports fell to 72.8% from 77.6% in 2018 in the same period.
    Brazilian soybean exports to China shot up last year as the U.S.-China trade war led Chinese importers to replace higher-tariff U.S. goods, but an outbreak of African swine fever in China has hit demand for soy, largely used for animal feed.

    More at: https://www.reuters.com/article/braz...-idUSL5N22R87Y
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  17. #44
    The same week U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping increases on tariffs against Chinese goods, Chinese buyers dropped orders for 3,247 metric tonnes of U.S. pork - the biggest cancellation in more than a year, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data released on Thursday.

    Earlier this year, China cancelled sales of 53 metric tonnes in the week ended Feb. 28, sales of 999 metric tonnes in the week ended March 21, and 214 metric tonnes in the week ended April 18, according to USDA data.

    More at: https://news.yahoo.com/china-cancels...185032539.html

    More pork for me.

    China will have to buy pork from somewhere and we can just sell to whoever they would have sold to.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  18. #45
    China faces a threat to its agriculture that could do far more damage to her political stability and economy than the escalating USA tariff war. In recent months cases of deadly African Swine Fever (ASF) among the pig population of the world’s largest pig producer have forced drastic killing off of the pig population since cases were first detected last August. On top of that, more recently, Chinese grain producers have been hit by what can only be called a plague of a dangerous pest called “Fall Armyworms”, that devastates corn, rice and other grain crops. The combination hitting China as its leaders are in the midst of an escalating major trade war with the United States, could affect the world geopolitical map in ways few can imagine.

    Officially, the Chinese government appears to be responding with clear determination to take necessary measures to eradicate the deadly African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak. Beijing authorities claim that more than 1 million pigs to date have been killed. However, that has not prevented the pig contamination from spreading to all provinces of China and even beyond.
    In the Chinese diet today pork is the main source of protein. China has the world’s largest pig population, over half, or close to 700 million swine. The problem is that African Swine Fever is highly deadly, almost 100% lethal to pigs, (though not, according to evidence, to humans). The disease is highly infectious which is why entire herds must be immediately destroyed and there is no medical cure known for it. The virus can exist on surfaces or in meat for days, even weeks.
    In an April report the US Department of Agriculture predicted that China will have to kill 134 million pigs, equal to the entire US pig production. That would be the worst drop recorded since the USDA began monitoring in the mid-1970’s.
    An April, 2019 research report by the Rabobank in Holland, a major world agriculture lender, estimates that actual ASF kills in China are significantly higher than the reported 1 million. They estimate that since initial outbreak in August 2018, deadly ASF has infected between 150 to 200 million of China’s pig population, some 100 times worse than the official numbers and has spread to every province in mainland China. The report states,
    “In 2019, we expect Chinese pork production losses of 25% to 35% in response to ASF. Reports of extreme losses (over 50%) are limited to confined areas.” The report adds, “These losses cannot easily be replaced by other proteins (chicken, duck, seafood, beef, and sheepmeat), nor will larger imports be able to fully offset the loss…this will result in a net supply gap of almost 10 million metric tons in the total 2019 animal protein supply.”
    That is far more than official data suggest and, if true, will have drastic effect on not only animal prices, but could devastate millions of small China farmers unable to survive the losses. Accurate data are lacking as the Chinese pig production is dominated by small farmers where health security measures are more lax and contagion more likely.
    Unfortunately, in a clear effort to calm the situation, the China Ministry of Agriculture issued a statement this January that there was no “ASF epidemic,” and that the government was taking adequate measures to bring the situation under control, this, though the disease had then spread to 24 mainland provinces. The suspicious timing of the reassuring statement was two weeks before the Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations, the time of the largest pig consumption of the year. Ironically this year is also the Year of the Pig in China.


    The deadly pig disease has also spread to neighboring Vietnam, a major pig producer where Rabobank expects at least 10% of the herd will be destroyed, and to Cambodia. As well it has spread to Hong Kong and to Taiwan and Mongolia. The problem is that the risk of reinfection is large and experts estimate that under best of conditions, it will take China years to rebuild its pig herds.
    Then Fall Armyworm Plague
    At the same time as China’s pig production is in its worst crisis in decades, its grain crops are being hit by another devastating plague that is every bit as difficult to combat, spread of what is called the “Fall Armyworm,” the common name for the larvae of Spodoptera frugiperda species of moth.
    According to a recent report, prepared for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the devastating pest, first discovered in Yunnan Province January 29, entering from Myanmar, may have already spread to a range of southern Chinese provinces including Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Guizhou, Hunan and Hainan. The USDA estimates that the Fall Armyworm, which can travel an astonishing 100 kilometers in a single night, will spread across all of the country’s grain-producing area in the coming few months. A typical Fall Armyworm moth will travel 500 kilometers in its lifespan, laying 1,000 to 1,500 eggs in total. The eggs hatch into larvae within a few days.
    Chinese agriculture exports report that the worm has spread much faster than they expected. The worm is extremely difficult to eradicate. The USDA notes that,
    “The Fall Armyworm has no natural predators in China and its presence may result in lower production and crop quality of corn, rice, wheat, sorghum, sugarcane, cotton, soybeans and peanuts, among other cash crops.” The report adds that, “…most farmers in China do not have the financial resources and training needed to effectively manage Fall Armyworm. Even if a mitigation program is employed, costly control measures (mainly chemical sprays) will drag producer margins into negative territory for farmers of most crops that could be affected.”
    China is the world’s second largest corn producer after the USA, forecast to produce 257 million tons of corn in 2018-19, according to the USDA. In the past three years, the Fall Armyworm, endemic to North America, has caused extensive economic damage across Africa, South Asia and Southeast Asia. In just two years the Fall Armyworm colonized three-quarters of Africa, according to British-based Centre for Agriculture and Biosciences International (CABI).

    Meanwhile in response to US trade tariffs put in place by the Trump administration, Beijing has restricted purchase of American soybeans, making domestic soy and other grain crops increasingly important for Chinese agriculture. And poor weather conditions have impacted Chinese production of soybeans and corn due to droughts and unusually cold weather.

    The double blows from African Swine Fever and the Fall Armyworm, combined with the latest escalation of US tariffs on Chinese imports, amid signs that China’s overall economy is slowing significantly, create a potentially dangerous situation whereby hundreds of thousands of Chinese small farmers are likely economically ruined and Chinese domestic food price inflation rises sharply. That is definitely what China does not need at this point.


    https://www.globalresearch.ca/china-...de-war/5677967
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  19. #46






    Last edited by goldenequity; 05-22-2019 at 04:30 AM.

  20. #47
    China will start work on clinical trials of an African swine fever vaccine, state media said on Friday, as the disease continues to spread through the world's biggest hog herd.State-owned Harbin Veterinary Research Institute has found two vaccine candidates, proven in laboratory tests to offer immunity to the disease, China National Radio said in a post on China's microblogging site Weibo.
    "In the next step, the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences will accelerate the progress of pilot and clinical trials, as well as vaccine production," said the report.
    However, scientists who work on animal vaccines have sounded a note of caution, saying that developing and launching an effective vaccine would be difficult.
    Harbin officials were not immediately available for comment when Reuters called the institute.
    The move comes as fears grow over the impact of the incurable disease on China's hog herd and economy. Beijing has said the breeding herd is 22% smaller than this time last year, but many in the industry say the impact could be much greater.
    In some parts of the country, huge numbers of pigs have died or been sent to slaughter. The breeding herd is 41% smaller than last summer in the northern province of Shandong, according to the local government.
    While Beijing is urging producers to replenish their stocks, some farmers say it is too risky to raise pigs until a vaccine is available.
    African swine fever kills almost all pigs infected and the virus can last for weeks in contaminated materials.
    Several candidates for a vaccine have already been identified by researchers in other countries, but many more steps are required before putting an effective product on the market.
    "In the research setting vaccines can be very efficient, but if you put them into the field it can be very different," said an international expert on African swine fever, declining to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.
    Getting a vaccine through field trials and onto the market can take years, he added.
    There are also at least two strains of the virus circulating in China and a vaccine would be unlikely to protect against both, said the expert.

    More at: https://news.yahoo.com/china-says-ma...9--sector.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  21. #48
    With Chinese pigs getting slaughtering left and right to contain the breakout of African swine fever, also known as "Pig Ebola", so are pork shorts as meat processors around the world scramble to sell more pork to China to make up for sharp shortages of China's most popular protein. The consequence is tighter supplies in the U.S. and Europe, which is pushing up prices. And as the disease continues to spread throughout China - the world’s largest producer and consumer - the trend will only get worse.
    Case in point: US retail prices for boneless hams hit $4.31 per pound in March, the highest since 2015.

    But none of this compares to what is about to hit China, where consumers are bracing for a shock as pork prices may surge more than 70% in the second half of this year an agriculture ministry official said last month, as the country's pork output has plunged as much as 30% this year, according to Rabobank, and could spike Chinese CPI in the coming months, sharply limiting the PBOC's efforts to stimulate and boost liquidity in the world's (credit-driven) growth dynamo and curbing China's latest attempt to reflate the world and boost global economic growth.
    “Some meat that used to go to the U.S. is now going to China because it pays more,” Jens Munk Ebbesen, director of food safety and veterinary issues at the Danish Agriculture & Food Council recently told Bloomberg.
    Seeking to frontrun some of the price surge, China recently made its biggest-ever weekly purchase of US pork:
    "African swine fever has sparked a rally across global protein stocks, but it’s not too late to buy in,” Morgan Stanley analysts led by Rafael Shin said in an April report to clients this week.“We think the rally has only begun and that the long-term impacts of ASF are still not understood."
    Morgan Stanley may be on to something because as Bloomberg reported last week, Thailand, one of Asia’s top pork producers, is intensifying efforts to hold off the spread of the lethal pig virus that’s causing havoc as it spreads across the region.
    No longer contained just to China, "Pig Ebola" - which as its name suggest kills nearly all the pigs it infects -has crossed the Chinese border, and has been spreading through Asia from Mongolia to Vietnam and Cambodia. Millions of pigs have been culled, creating a global protein shortage and saddling farmers and food businesses with billions of dollars in costs.
    The focus is now on Thailand, where Anan Suwannarat, the permanent secretary in Thailand’s Agriculture Ministry, told Bloomberg that "we’re on red alert for the pig virus" adding that "we’re trying everything to prevent it from spreading to Thailand."
    As a result, Thailand has tightened inspections at airports and border checkpoints, cracked down on illegal slaughterhouses and traders, and imposed stricter requirements for reporting hog deaths. The authorities have detected contaminated pork products at airports and borders, but have not yet found any cases at farms.
    As Thailand is aggressively seeking to halt the spread of ASF, so is Vietnam, Southeast Asia’s biggest pork producer, which discovered its first case in February. Cambodia - sandwiched between Vietnam and Thailand - reported its first infection less than two months later.
    "Preventing the outbreak is our national agenda," said Cheerasak Pipatpongsopon, the deputy director-general at Thailand’s Livestock Department. "Even if it gets into the country, we’ll be quick in containing the outbreak to minimize the damage to the industry."
    Unfortunately, it now appears that Pig Ebola has indeed spread and overnight Bloomberg reported that Vietnam has culled more than 1.7 million pigs as African swine fever spread across the country.
    But back to Thailand where the Agriculture Ministry has estimated an outbreak may cost the Thai economy more than $1 billion if over 50% of the country’s hogs are infected. That could reach nearly $2 billion if 80% are infected. The Thai government last month approved a $4.7 million budget to prepare the nation for a potential outbreak.


    "No country is safe," said Dirk Pfeiffer, a professor at the Department of Infectious Diseases and Public Health at the City University of Hong Kong. "There’s a high risk of introduction of the virus for Thailand, as is the case for every country in the region and beyond."

    While not nearly as productive as pig powerhouse Vietnam, Thailand produces over 2 million hogs each year, and exports about 40% to Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar. It doesn’t import live hogs or pork meat and visitors are no longer permitted to bring processed pork products into the country. In a crackdown to prevent infected pigs from entering the country, it has confiscated pork products at its airports and borders 550 times since August, detecting the virus 43 times, according to the Livestock Department.
    Making matters worse, porous borders increase the risk of the disease entering the country. The virus can survive in uncooked meat for a long period of time, and hogs can get infected if contaminated food gets into their feed.
    But of all Asian nations, it is China that faces the greatest risk by far. China slaughters almost 700 million pigs a year and pork is by far the most widely eaten meat. The problem is that as China scrambles to contain the raging virus, it is forced to cull herds across the country. As Reuters reported last week, citing the latest Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs data, China’s sow herd in April fell a whopping 22.3% compared with the same month a year earlier.
    The good news for now is that while pork prices have spiked, resulting in a 14.4% pork CPI in April...

    ... prices are also being kept in check as frozen pork stocks are being sold - call it the Strategic Porkolium Reserve - since slaughterhouses have slowed down business in order to comply with new rules to test for the deadly virus.
    But as noted above, the industry is expecting prices to soar in the second half - perhaps more than 60%, surpassing the great food inflation scare of 2011, with production still falling. “With the disease still present, it will keep falling,” Qin Yinglin, president of Muyuan Foods , China’s second-largest pig farmer, told Reuters. He is right, because while the official May inflation data has to be reported, pork prices in China - along with fruits and vegetables - have surged even more so far in May, putting more pressure on households’ wallets and increasing inflationary pressures.

    In fact, as shown below, the price of virtually every food product in China is rising at double digits in China.
    China food prices YoY %

    Pork +30%
    Beef +10
    Eggs+14
    Chicken +14
    Live Carp +7
    Live Squid -11
    Octopus +5
    Green Onions+36
    Lettuce +13
    Fuji Apples +61
    Banana + 8
    Kyoho Grapes +8
    Watermelon +30

    i feel bad for the person short Fuji Apples and long Live Squid for a pair trade
    — HindsightCapital™️ (@Data_Junkie_) May 17, 2019
    Making matters even worse, while Chinese Vice premier Hu Chunhua has been encouraging pig farmers to restock farms "as worries grow over the impact of rising pork prices on the economy and social stability", farmers are nervous about repopulating farms that have had outbreaks because of the risk of new pigs catching the fatal disease if the farm has not been properly decontaminated.
    But in what is perhaps the biggest headache, this being China none of the data can be trusted. Indeed, as Reuters notes, while there have been 126 reported outbreaks of African swine fever on domestic pig farms, Beijing has not confirmed the disease on many large producers even as industry insiders say many large-scale farms have experienced numerous outbreaks.

    Finally, it’s not just China that’s grappling with the spread of disease: as noted above, with Asian nations still struggling to contain the surge, pork prices may soar even more as fears spread in Europe that the virus, which was detected in wild boars in Belgium last year, could infect domestic hogs in major exporters, such as France and Germany. France is in the process of building a fence running dozens of kilometers near the border in an effort to contain the disease, unfortunately in a stark comparison to similar "fortifications" undertaken during World War II, this venture will fail spectacularly.

    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...n-across-china
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  23. #49
    South Korea said Wednesday North Korea has so far ignored its calls for joint efforts to stem the spread of highly contagious African swine fever following an outbreak near North Korea's border with China.South Korea's agricultural ministry said that blood tests of pigs from some 340 farms near the inter-Korean border conducted through Tuesday came back negative. Hundreds of fences and traps have been installed around the farms to prevent pigs from being infected by wild boars that roam in and out of North Korea.
    But the lack of bilateral cooperation renders South Korea helpless in preventing the disease from reaching North Korean farms near the border. There's concern that an outbreak in South Korea would deal a significant blow to a massive industry that involves 6,300 farms raising more than 11 million pigs.
    South Korea's Unification Ministry, which deals with inter-Korean affairs, said the North hasn't responded to proposals for joint quarantine efforts since it reported an outbreak near its border with China to the World Organization for Animal Health, or the OIE, last week. The North said 77 of the 99 pigs at the cooperative farm in Jagang province died of the disease and the remaining 22 pigs were culled.


    Lee Sang-min, the Unification Ministry's spokesman, said the North has not separately communicated with the South over the outbreak although the Koreas last year agreed to share information when contagious diseases break out.
    "It seems we will have to wait longer for the North's response," he said.


    North Korean state media in recent weeks have published several articles detailing the spread of African swine fever across Asia, but none of them so far has specifically mentioned that the disease has reached the North.
    "To prevent African swine fever from spreading, it's crucial to detect and slaughter the pigs infected with the virus at the right time," North Korean scientist Jon Sung Chil said in an interview published Wednesday on Pyongyang's official Rodong Sinmun newspaper, which called for an all-out effort by the North's farming industry and homes to prevent the spread of the disease.
    South Korean government believes the North raises about 2.6 million pigs in 14 government-run or cooperative farms. Oh Beom-seok, an official from South Korea's agriculture ministry, said the South is prepared to provide diagnosis kits, disinfectants and other equipment should the North ask for help.
    "We are trying to gain as much information possible from the OIE or North Korean officials there ... but so far, there has been no additional report of an outbreak (in North Korea)," Oh said.
    The ministry said government workers have caught more than 1,000 wild boars in South Korea for blood tests, which have so far come back negative. While workers plan to test 2,000 more wild boars, the ministry said none of the animals so far was caught in border areas, where a ban on hunting rifles make the animals harder to control.
    South Korea's Defense Ministry, which is monitoring the movement of wild boars through heat sensors installed along the border, said it would be difficult for wild boars to cross over barbed wire fences in the mine-scattered border zone. But government officials say there's still a possibility that the animals could swim across rivers.
    Oh, from the agriculture ministry, said government workers are expanding the range of their quarantine efforts and would finish examining facilities and spraying disinfectants at all pig farms nationwide by next week.
    South Korea is also tightening control at harbors and airports, while imposing a 5 million won ($4,200) fine on travelers who fail to report food products containing pork after visiting countries dealing with African swine fever. Repeat offenders can be fined up to 10 million won ($8,470).

    More at: https://news.yahoo.com/seoul-nkorea-...033122310.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  24. #50
    Smack in the middle of a trade war with the U.S., China is facing a food shortage that’s raising prices for consumers. If officials can’t keep inflation in check, President Donald Trump’s Twitter tantrums will be the least of their worries.African swine fever is decimating China’s pig population. The country’s stock fell 21%, or by nearly 73 million pigs, from March 2018 through April 2019, according to official statistics. Unofficially, however, industry experts whisper about slides of more than 40% to 50%. That would be comparable to wiping out all the pigs in the U.S. and Europe combined. For a country that derives most of its protein consumption from pork, this is a problem.
    Compounding the challenge is the invasion of fall armyworm in the lead-up to the autumn harvest. Traveling up to 60 miles a day, the crop-eating pest is expected to be present in all Chinese provinces by the end of the year. This is already having a significant impact on expected yields of corn, wheat and rice.
    Beijing has moved to raise food imports, and had even considered increasing U.S. pork purchases before trade tensions ramped up last month. But there simply isn’t enough pork out there to replace the world’s biggest producer.
    This adds serious pressure to China’s economy. Food, alcohol and tobacco comprise 30% of the CPI basket, the highest share of any category. The isolated food component stands at about 20%, even after shrinking in recent years. May’s inflation data have already shown evidence of supply shortages: Pork prices gained 18.2%, pushing the consumer-price index up 2.7% from a year earlier, the highest since February 2018. While that’s still within Beijing’s comfort zone, we haven’t even hit the summer growing months, when the damage from armyworm will really kick in.
    This puts Beijing in a bit of a pickle. China has been banking on the idea that consumers will pick up the slack in a weakening economy. Just last week, officials announced new stimulus measures to boost purchases of cars, home appliances and electronics. But with rising prices offsetting gains from tax cuts earlier this year, that’s starting to seem like wishful thinking. China’s growth is slowing much faster than the headline official data admit. Higher inflation will only constrain Beijing’s options for further easing.
    The first step in addressing this challenge would be to recognize the seriousness of African swine fever and armyworm. There’s little evidence Beijing has done that. Instead, Chinese officials have been snuffing out critical media coverage, underreporting data and putting an all-too-rosy sheen on their response to the crisis, not unlike what we saw with SARS in the early 2000s, as Bloomberg Opinion columnist Adam Minter has written.
    Second, Beijing needs to rapidly increase imports to slow expected price increases – even if China starts to skew its protein balance more toward chicken and beef. Theoretically, that would be a boon for other key pork suppliers, such as the U.S. and Germany. In reality, though, the shifting contours of the trade war make relying on U.S. imports unlikely, and China’s relationship with Europe is lukewarm at best.
    The existential problem facing Beijing is how to address rising food prices and a slowing economy, which have a history of triggering episodes of social unrest. If pork prices do climb 70% this year, as officials forecast, Beijing will face a very unhappy population eager to assign blame for the mismanagement of a crisis. That will be a lot scarier than missing a GDP target.


    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china...000036336.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  25. #51
    China will block pork imports from a third Canadian firm after a shipment was found to contain the banned feed additive ractopamine, the customs agency said on Tuesday, deepening a trade and diplomatic dispute with Canada.The firm in question is Frigo Royal Inc, the agency said on its Wechat account. Ractopamine is used in some countries to make leaner pigs but China does not allow its use or tolerate residues in imported meat.
    China will also strengthen inspections for the residue in all pork imports from Canada, the notice from the General Administration of Customs said. Quebec-based Frigo Royal did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
    China halted pork imports from two other Canadian producers, Olymel LP and Drummond Export, in April because of labeling problems. It has also blocked imports of canola.

    In the first four months of 2019, China was Canada's third-biggest pork export market, taking in C$310 million ($231.41 million) of pork, according to Statistics Canada.

    More at: https://news.yahoo.com/china-suspend...082919855.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  26. #52
    China said on Tuesday it wants the Canadian government to temporarily stop allowing meat shipments to China after bogus pork export certificates were discovered.
    The move disrupts a lucrative pork trade for Canada, the world's third-biggest shipper, and comes as China turns to meat imports after African swine fever killed millions of its pigs.
    Canada and China are also embroiled in a dispute after the chief financial officer of Huawei Technologies Co was detained in Vancouver on a U.S. arrest warrant.
    "It's a big loss, a huge market," said Martin Lavoie, CEO of Canada Pork International, an export marketing group. "You have alternative markets but (replacing) the volume of China, that's the challenge."
    China bought C$310 million ($236.32 million) worth of Canadian pork from January through April, making it Canada's third-largest market by value. It is Canada's largest pork market by volume.
    Canadian pork exporters are likely to find other buyers, such as Mexico, the United States and the Philippines, but may have to accept lower prices, Lavoie said. Canadian pork processors include Olymel, HyLife and Maple Leaf Foods.
    Buyers for specialty products such as pig feet may be hard to find, Lavoie said.


    China's move also applies to beef, but Canadian sales to China amounted to less than 3% of Canada's beef exports last year.
    An investigation by Beijing into Canada's export certificates revealed as many as 188 "counterfeit" veterinary health documents and the existence of "obvious safety loopholes," according to the Chinese Embassy in Canada.
    Ottawa has called in the Royal Canadian Mounted Police to investigate, but the Canadian government is not convinced the fraudulent meat shipments come from Canada.

    More at: https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-shutou...184118645.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  27. #53
    This actually could be a blessing in disguise for people's health.
    “The spirits of darkness are now among us. We have to be on guard so that we may realize what is happening when we encounter them and gain a real idea of where they are to be found. The most dangerous thing you can do in the immediate future will be to give yourself up unconsciously to the influences which are definitely present.” ~ Rudolf Steiner

  28. #54
    Cargill Inc shuttered animal-feed mills in China in recent months partly because the rapid spread of a fatal hog disease has reduced demand, a company executive said on Friday.

    The outbreak accelerated closures of Cargill animal-feed mills in coastal regions of China that were also prompted by a westward shift over the past decade of the areas in which livestock are raised, Warta said. Most of the facilities will not be re-opened even if China gets African swine fever under control, he said.
    Cargill closed three feed and animal-nutrition plants in the second half of the fiscal year that ended on May 31, representing an approximately 150,000-metric-tonne reduction in capacity, according to the company.


    Cargill reported on Thursday that reduced hog feed demand in China, along with the ongoing U.S.-China trade war and flooding in the U.S. Midwest, led to a 41% slide in adjusted quarterly profits.
    For the first six months of 2019, China's soybean imports dropped 14.7% from the same period last year as African swine fever curbed demand for hog feed, Chinese customs data showed on Friday.
    Expectations for China to boost meat imports after losing hogs has caused some livestock producers in exporting countries to feed animals longer so that they grow bigger, Warta said.

    More at: https://news.yahoo.com/cargill-shuts...200419958.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  29. #55
    Pork prices have been sent soaring and herds devastated as African swine fever tears through China's massive pig-farming industry, forcing the country to ramp up imports to satisfy demand -- but analysts warn worse is yet to come.
    More than 1.1 million pigs have been killed or culled so far as authorities scramble to contain a virus that has spread to neighbouring countries since the first cases emerged in August 2018 and for which there is no vaccine.
    But the figure is widely believed to be much higher, as official data show China's pig herd totalled 347.6 million in the first half of the year, down 60 million from the same period last year. Pork prices soared by a fifth in June alone.
    "The worst is yet to come," said Jan-Peter Van Ferneij, who monitors foreign markets at the French Pork Institute.
    "For now it's the numbers (of pigs) that are falling. Then it will be production... and consumption will fall," he said.


    To meet demand, Beijing has increased pork imports, with shipments from the European Union rising 37 percent between January and April, according to European Commission figures.
    Brazil has also become a big source of imports.
    China is only importing frozen pork and the meat is going to larger cities, said Jan-Peter Van Ferneij, who monitors foreign markets at the French Pork Institute.
    Prices, meanwhile, could go up as much as 40 percent in the next six months, according to a note by Nomura bank.
    Authorities have sought to reassure the public.
    Earlier this month, agriculture officials said production was "slowly recovering", with 44 new incidences of fever detected over the past seven months, compared with 99 from August to December last year.
    But the malady is far from over. Another outbreak was reported on Wednesday in southwest Sichuan province, with 21 pigs infected in a farm of 102 pigs.
    An April report by Dutch financial group Rabobank said African swine fever was now affecting up to 200 million pigs, and the expected 30 percent loss in pork production was almost a third larger than the annual US pork production.

    More at: https://news.yahoo.com/swine-fever-s...030807121.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  30. #56
    It might seem an unlikely time for U.S. farmers to look to China for more business but the devastating impact of African swine fever on the Chinese pork industry is trumping concerns about trade wars and tariffs.Experts estimate the disease will wipe out about a third of China's pork production this year, or 18 million tonnes. That's twice the amount of pork exported worldwide every year and enough to feed U.S. consumers for almost two years.
    The U.S. trade war with China initially forced U.S. pork exporters to scour the world for new markets but as the swine fever crisis deepens they're gearing up for new opportunities to supply the Chinese market later this year and next.
    The catch for U.S. hog farmers is that if they want to take advantage of the surge in Chinese pork demand, they can't feed their pigs with the growth drug ractopamine which is widely used in the United States but banned in China.
    In recent years, the European Union has provided roughly two-thirds of China's pork imports, excluding offal, with Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark the main suppliers, according to Chinese customs data.
    Potential demand is so huge, however, that the EU alone can't satisfy it. U.S. producers of ractopamine-free pigs could benefit, either by supplying China or making up shortfalls in other regions targeting the Chinese market.
    Sixth-generation Iowa hog farmer Mike Paustian would certainly like to benefit from producing pigs without ractopamine, even though it helps pigs quickly build lean muscle instead of fat.
    Paustian said his buyer at Tyson Foods Inc., the biggest U.S. meatpacker, was considering paying a premium for pork free of ractopamine, which is also banned in the European Union, and that could push some farmers to stop using it.


    Rival U.S. pork producer Smithfield Foods, which is owned by China's WH Group, already raises all of the hogs on its company-owned and contract farms without the drug.
    Traders and analysts said Smithfield was reconfiguring its U.S. processing operations to direct meat to China, which produced half the world's pork before swine fever decimated the industry.
    Diana Souder, a Smithfield spokeswoman, declined to comment on the specific changes but said the company upgraded a plant in Smithfield, Virginia as "part of a broader initiative to better organise our production to meet demand".
    "Not just Smithfield, but every U.S. pork processor will be shipping more product to China and the demand side is just expected to be strong, certainly into 2020," Smithfield CEO Ken Sullivan told analysts on a call.
    The ongoing trade war between Beijing and Washington hit U.S. pork exports to China last year when its market share halved to 7% from 14% a year earlier, according to Chinese customs data.
    But as African swine fever swept across China during the second half of 2018, expectations for demand started to pick up - even though duties on U.S. pork going to China were raised to 62% from 12% last year as part of tit-for-tat trade sanctions.
    According to data from the U.S. Meat Export Federation, U.S. pork exports to China and Hong Kong rose 33% in May from a year earlier to 45,442 tonnes - though exports for the first five months of 2019 were still 7% lower than in 2018.
    David Williams, head of strategic sourcing and commodities risk management at U.S. company CTI Foods, said U.S. hog farmers had already benefited indirectly from swine fever as it had driven up pork prices generally.
    The price rises were sorely needed because many U.S. farmers had expanded output to supply a string of new U.S. processing plants, just as separate U.S. trade disputes with Mexico and China hit trade volumes.
    "They got a lifeboat," said Williams, adding that increasing demand from China could be an added bonus.
    "They're going to have to get this pork from somewhere," said Williams, who formerly led export sales and futures trading for Cargill's meat business unit. "The U.S. is going to benefit, so is Brazil and Europe."
    He said monthly U.S. pork exports to China could treble by the end of 2019, assuming the two countries strike a trade deal.


    Demand from China is expected to remain strong next year as a plunge in the number of breeding sows means it will take time to rebuild the country's pig stock. As many as half of China's sows may have died, according to industry estimates shared with Reuters.

    Pork prices in China have already risen substantially since March and the agricultural ministry has said they could surge by 70 percent in the coming months as a result of the outbreak. Pork accounts for more than 60% of Chinese meat consumption.
    "The rebuilding of China's sow herd could also take several years given the potential recontamination risk," ratings agency Fitch said in a July 9 report, which noted swine fever was having a positive impact on Smithfield's debt ratings.
    China is not the only country hit. There have been outbreaks of swine fever in Vietnam, Cambodia, Mongolia, North Korea and Laos. It has also already spread across parts of central and eastern Europe and even been found in wild boars in Belgium.
    EU export prospects would suffer a massive blow if the disease, which does not harm people, reached top European exporting nations such as Germany or Spain.
    European industry sources said a surge in Chinese buying earlier this year had largely emptied warehouses and the flow of pork exports, while still steady, was not quite as strong now due to limited supplies.


    Given the potential for a protracted trade war, U.S. farmers may still be wary of being overly dependent on Chinese trade. Canadian pork exporters initially benefited from the surge in demand by exporting more ractopamine-free pigs.
    But Chinese officials found ractopamine in a Canadian pork shipment in June. Three Canadian exporters have now been banned from selling to China and Beijing has called for all Canadian meat imports to be suspended.
    Canada's share of China's pork imports ranged from 11% to 14% in the 2016-2018 period, Chinese customs data shows.


    Another major pork exporter, Brazil, is expecting to increase shipments by more than 20% in 2019 to almost 800,000 tonnes thanks to Chinese demand, producer group ABPA has said.
    Brazil allows the use of ractopamine but has been exporting pork free of the growth drug for about six years, Rui Vargas, a director at ABPA said. More companies are adopting ractopamine-free protocols to export pork, he said, declining to name any.
    The magnitude of lost pork production in China, however, means some Chinese consumers may need to change their diets.
    "Consumers will need to shift part of their pork consumption to other products. This should result in a higher demand for other proteins, particularly poultry meat," the European Commission said.

    More at: https://news.yahoo.com/insight-u-far...010000320.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  32. #57
    China detected African swine fever virus in live pigs being transported to the northeastern Liaoning province, the official Xinhua News Agency said on Saturday, underlining the challenge facing Beijing in its bid to control the contagious disease.Three trucks carrying a total of 205 pigs from provinces was stopped within the jurisdiction of Liaoning, according to Xinhua, adding that 22 pigs were found dead.

    More at: https://news.yahoo.com/china-detects...160106948.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  33. #58
    The price of China's favorite food is about to hit all time highs.

    As a result of the decimation of Chinese pig herds, which have been crippled by the ongoing spread of so-called "pig ebola", i.e. African swine fever which has crippled domestic pork production, RaboBank expects China's pork prices to hit a record high by the fourth quarter of 2019 even as imports continue to surge.
    Last Tuesday China's customs data showed that pork imports in June surged from the previous year, as the world's top consumer of the meat stocked up on supplies after African swine fever swept across the country's pig herds. China brought in 160,467 tonnes of pork in June, up 62.8% from the same month last year, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. This was down 14% from 187,459 tonnes imported in May.

    China's pork imports for the first six months of the year came in at 818,703 tonnes, up 26.3% from a year earlier according to Reuters. Meanwhile, pork prices rose by nearly 30% in June compared with a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, with the spread of African swine fever showing no sign of abating, causing domestic production to plunge.

    Retail pork prices have also increased in recent weeks but at a slower pace than whole sale prices, with prices up 34.6% from a year earlier at 27.29 yuan per kg as of July 10. And while China's agriculture ministry is investigating local veterinary authorities in 10 provinces as it tries to slow the ongoing spread of the deadly African swine fever virus, few analysts expect it to succeed, and instead see prices rising even higher:
    China’s pork and hog prices are likely to break the previous record high in 2016 by the fourth quarter,” said Pan Chenjun, senior analyst for animal protein at Rabobank. He also expects pork production to fall by 30% or about 16 million tonnes, leaving a gaping hole in the country’s protein supply. Analysts warn the disease could hit some farms more than once, and ratings agency Fitch forecasts pork output will stay below 2018 levels through 2021.
    Rabobank pointed out that Chinese data showed that sow, or mother pig, inventory had dropped 26.7% and the number of hogs had fallen 25.8% at the end of June compared with a year ago. But it believes that the herd losses in specific regions are much worse, down by 40 to 60 per cent since last August. For 2019, the bank expects the total herd loss to exceed 50 per cent.


    China began to import more pork in March when domestic wholesale prices started to rise. Imports of US pork – which fell 75% to 1,609 tonnes between July and December 2018 after China retaliated with tariffs in response to US duties on Chinese goods – have soared. Since January, imports from the US have more than tripled from 5,788 tonnes to 17,603 tonnes in May. While US pork imports to China face a 62% tariff, Bloomberg has cited unnamed sources saying that Beijing has approved duty waivers for some Chinese companies.
    African swine fever will also put downward pressure on middle-class consumer spending, which Beijing is counting on to help boost growth in an economy that is expanding at its slowest pace in nearly three decades. China’s middle class accounts for around 400 million people, or 28.6% of the 1.4 billion population.
    According to SCMP, economists at Capital Economics warned that Chinese consumption growth will be weighed down in the near term by consumer price inflation which is set to reach an eight-year high, due in large part to rising pork prices resulting from African swine fever.
    “This will drag down real income growth and likely lead to a further deterioration in consumer sentiment,” they said in a report this month.
    This also means that China is facing its first stagflationary episode since 2011: last month, China’s consumer price index
    rose 2.7% Y/Y, driven by higher food prices in pork and fruits, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. And with spending curtailed, China's economy will likely continue to contract even as prices of food stables rise.
    * * *
    Meanwhile, and as a result, prices for other meats including chicken and duck, are also expected to rise substantially, putting further pressure on the discretionary spending of Chinese consumers.
    One direct - and soon to be very rich - beneficiary of China's pig ebola are duck farmers. As the SCMP reports, on a 30-hectare (74-acre) plot of land in China’s Shandong province poultry hub, more than half a million white-feathered ducks are busy eating, chattering and laying eggs to produce cheap meat for thousands of factory canteens.
    With birds already packed into around 60 open-sided buildings, farm owner Shenghe Group is expanding further, aiming to raise output by 30 per cent this year to capture record profits as a plunge in pig numbers shrinks production of pork, China’s favourite meat.
    “The market prospects are very good now because of African swine fever,” said Shenghe Chairman Wang Shuhong, whose firm sells about 300,000 ducklings a day for fattening and slaughter.


    Meanwhile, soaring pork prices have already fueled a surge in poultry meat demand. Chicken breast is about 20% more expensive than a year ago, while duck breast has nearly tripled in price to 14,600 yuan (US$2,125) a tonne, according to Shenghe. While this is still only about half the cost of pork, but such prices are unheard of in China, where breast is typically the cheapest part of the bird.
    As the SCMP also reports, about 80% of the world’s ducks are raised in China, but are traditionally eaten in the south, where fried duck tongues, braised feet and spicy duck neck are popular snacks, and duck intestines make up a hotpot.
    In recent years, as pork prices spiked, more ducks have been processed for use by cost-conscious catering firms, supplying large canteens feeding schools, factories, businesses and the military. These buyers are now switching as much pricey pork as they can to duck.
    A procurement manager with a catering firm that supplies about 100 large clients around China said he has replaced about 20 per cent to 30 per cent of the pork on menus with either chicken or duck meat. He declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue.

    “We may switch even more. But our concern is that the poultry price is now going up as well,” he said.
    The price of day-old ducklings, sold by farms like Shenghe, has hovered around 6 yuan, three times the usual level, since July last year. While the torrid price surge eased last month as farmers held off restocking during hot summer weather, they are rising again and set to go higher, said Dong Xiaobo, China general manager for French genetics company Orvia, the No. 2 supplier of breeding ducks.
    Orvia is sold out six months ahead and has even had calls from pig farmers considering raising ducks after losing their hogs to African swine fever.

    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...hinas-pigs-die
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  34. #59
    Does 2125.00 seem cheap for a ton of duck breast ? I mean , how many ducks does it take to equal that , 6K ? Duck breast is pretty high here once you buy a Federal duck stamp , state duck stamp , hunting license , buy the box of more expensive enviromentalist steel shot and take a two bag max for a day, probably over 80.00 a pound .
    Do something Danke

  35. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    Does 2125.00 seem cheap for a ton of duck breast ? I mean , how many ducks does it take to equal that , 6K ? Duck breast is pretty high here once you buy a Federal duck stamp , state duck stamp , hunting license , buy the box of more expensive enviromentalist steel shot and take a two bag max for a day, probably over 80.00 a pound .
    Hunted duck SHOULD be cheaper than farmed duck.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

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