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Thread: China: African Swine Fever Threatens Pork Production

  1. #1

    China: African Swine Fever Threatens Pork Production

    Hog farms in northeast China are reporting outbreaks of African swine fever that have killed numerous animals and forced farmers to cull more in an effort to stop the outbreak, Bloomberg reported Aug. 23.

    China is the world's largest producer of pork and is home to over half of the world's swine.

    More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...ork-production
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  3. #2
    Since the first case of African swine fever was reported in China in early August, more than 10 additional outbreaks have been reported. The disease is affecting six provinces, stretching more than 3,000 kilometers (1,864 miles) from Heilongjiang in the north to Zhejiang in the south. Now, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization has convened a three-day meeting of experts and representatives from countries in the region. They plan to develop a regional response to best prevent the spread of the viral hemorrhagic fever, which is not harmful to humans, beyond China's borders. As of Sept. 5, nearly 40,000 pigs had been culled in an effort to contain the disease. Restrictions have also been placed on the movement of the animals, and pork production and live hog markets have been shut down in the affected provinces.

    Since the beginning of August, pork prices have risen by about 8 percent in parts of China, and those increases could exacerbate the economic fallout from the trade dispute between the United States and China. Pork is one of the major agricultural products targeted in the disagreement, so a major infection of China's domestic supply could lead to shortages, further disrupting pork markets. These developments could weaken China's ability to continue to implement tariffs. The increase in prices has already led to unease in the bond market. Should those prices remain high, Beijing could be forced to use additional economic measures to suppress inflation. Pork prices are a significant contributor to the country's consumer price index, an important economic indicator.

    More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/artic...ade-dispute-us
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  4. #3
    The response to the disease is "extremely challenging" because the virus can survive for months in meat products and animal feed, said the FAO. Since August 03, there have been more than a dozen outbreaks of the virus across the country. This forced the government to enact new transport restrictions of live hogs in provinces where infections have been reported.
    The epidemic is now taking an economic toll on the annual $1 trillion industry. Pork spot prices in the country’s southern region have jumped ahead of a week-long holiday in October and highlight the need for increased imports.

    The FAO said officials in China, which produces about half the world’s pigs annually, had slaughtered as many as 40,000 swine in an attempt to control the disease. Slaughtering pigs and transportation limits of animals around China have pushed spot prices up more than 5% since August, according to government figures, adding to inflationary pressures as a trade war with the US also drives up soft agricultural prices.
    In a separate statement late last month, the FAO said the rapid "diverse geographical spread" of the virus in China had induced fears that the disease could move to other Asian countries.
    Dirk Pfeiffer, an animal health expert at the City University of Hong Kong, said a "much larger" number of pigs will probably have to be slaughtered in China over the next few weeks, further affecting pork prices.
    "We need to closely monitor the situation on the mainland, and in particular any imports of live pigs and pork products. We need to aim to get assurance that any live pigs are from areas demonstrated to be free from infection," he added.
    Average meat consumption by country:

    The world’s top ten pork producers:

    Experts are perplexed by how the disease, which was previously in the European Union, reached China. Theories include globalized markets with exported meats to the Eastern Hemisphere. Meanwhile, American traders are concerned about the price dynamics of the virus spreading across China.
    US lean hog futures advanced more than 12% since late August.

    However, they remain in a bear market since China slapped US producers with a retaliatory tariff.

    “The African swine fever in China has everybody abuzz… We’re building in a premium for that,” said Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.
    With the virus dangerously sweeping across various provinces in China and officials slaughtering tens of thousands of pigs, at what point will China demand more US pigs despite the tariffs?


    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...-fever-spreads
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  5. #4
    They are going to want to lower their tariffs on our goods so we can start exporting our animal products cheaply again.. or else it looks like we will be exporting anyway and they will have to pay the premium.
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc


    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    They are going to want to lower their tariffs on our goods so we can start exporting our animal products cheaply again.. or else it looks like we will be exporting anyway and they will have to pay the premium.
    If they don't drop the tariffs they will have unrest, if they do drop them they will lose the trade war bigly.
    China is doomed.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  7. #6
    China reported two new outbreaks of African swine fever in the Inner Mongolia region and Henan provinces as the highly contagious disease, which is deadly to pigs, spreads further nationwide, the state-run Xinhua news agency said on Friday.

    More at: https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-ch...-idUKKCN1LU23M
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  8. #7
    Speaking of pigs...

    see that red spot?

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1041458661032374272

    apparently... (as per friend o'mine in SC)...
    The 'New Bern' valley/watershed area is the Smithfield 'Pork Capital' of the US.
    (China bought Smithfield bout 5 yrs ago...)
    he sez...
    the swine are 'raised' on concrete slabs...
    which are then 'sprayed/water washed' hourly/regularly...
    the 'runoff'' blackwater is captured/held in giant aeration bermed, 'ponds'.
    Can't imagine what has happened/happening... ugh. uke:


    -----

    just found this...
    https://www.newsweek.com/florence-po...rolina-1123097

    Even if hogs are able to make it to higher ground, slaughterhouses and processing facilities in the path of the storm will be shut down until further notice, slowing pork deliveries. Smithfield Foods's Tar Heel, North Carolina pork processing site, the largest in the world, was forced to close last week, holding up production and delivery. The company also closed its Clinton, North Carolina facility.
    Last edited by goldenequity; 09-16-2018 at 06:17 PM.

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by goldenequity View Post
    Speaking of pigs...

    see that red spot?

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1041458661032374272

    apparently... (as per friend o'mine in SC)...
    The 'New Bern' valley/watershed area is the Smithfield 'Pork Capital' of the US.
    (China bought Smithfield bout 5 yrs ago...)
    he sez...
    the swine are 'raised' on concrete slabs...
    which are then 'sprayed/water washed' hourly/regularly...
    the 'runoff'' blackwater is captured/held in giant aeration bermed, 'ponds'.
    Can't imagine what has happened/happening... ugh. uke:


    -----

    just found this...
    https://www.newsweek.com/florence-po...rolina-1123097
    And ASF has started to spread in the EU too.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by goldenequity View Post
    Speaking of pigs...

    see that red spot?

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1041458661032374272

    apparently... (as per friend o'mine in SC)...
    The 'New Bern' valley/watershed area is the Smithfield 'Pork Capital' of the US.
    (China bought Smithfield bout 5 yrs ago...)
    he sez...
    the swine are 'raised' on concrete slabs...
    which are then 'sprayed/water washed' hourly/regularly...
    the 'runoff'' blackwater is captured/held in giant aeration bermed, 'ponds'.
    Can't imagine what has happened/happening... ugh. uke:


    -----

    just found this...
    https://www.newsweek.com/florence-po...rolina-1123097
    North Carolina’s hog-manure lagoons have stayed contained so far, according to the state, as the region continues to get pelted with rain from the remnants of Hurricane Florence.
    The state’s 4,000 lagoons are holding out, even though huge swaths of farmland in the state’s eastern corner are underwater, Governor Roy Cooper said. The lined earthen pits that hold treated waste had been a major environmental concern as unprecedented rain lashed North Carolina, with at least 30 rivers breaching their banks.
    "We are closely monitoring hog lagoons, and we haven’t had any reports of issues," Cooper said in a media briefing Sunday.
    However, some experts cast doubt on the governor’s assessment. The counties most severely affected by Florence are major swine-farm counties, with some barely above sea level, said Professor Mark Sobsey of the environmental sciences department at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
    “If farmland is completely submerged, it’s a good chance swine farms are completely submerged," Sobsey said. "I’d like to see some evidence to show that somehow swine farms and lagoons have been magically spared as everything else fell under water," he said. "It’s just a little bit hard to believe."

    More at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...north-carolina
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  12. #10
    Weaponizing Deadly Viruses: Historical Precedents (from 2009)
    https://www.infowars.com/weaponizing...al-precedents/

    In regard to swine flu, the San Francisco Chronicle reported on January 10, 1977, that CIA “operatives linked to anti-Castro terrorists introduced African swine fever virus into Cuba in 1971.” The outbreak, the first time the disease hit the Western Hemisphere, was labeled the “most alarming event” of 1971 by the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization. Cuba reacted to outbreak by slaughtering 500,000 pigs. An intelligence source told the newspaper “that early in 1971 he was given the virus in a sealed, unmarked container at Ft. Gulick, an Army base in the Panama Canal Zone. The CIA also operates a paramilitary training center for career personnel and mercenaries at Ft. Gulick.” The source said he was given instructions to turn the container with the virus over to members of an anti-Castro group.
    China is having outbreaks ya say..

    They were just invited for Joint Military exercises in Russia.
    May be joining in Syria..

    just sayin'
    Liberty is lost through complacency and a subservient mindset. When we accept or even welcome automobile checkpoints, random searches, mandatory identification cards, and paramilitary police in our streets, we have lost a vital part of our American heritage. America was born of protest, revolution, and mistrust of government. Subservient societies neither maintain nor deserve freedom for long.
    Ron Paul 2004

    Registered Ron Paul supporter # 2202
    It's all about Freedom

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by pcosmar View Post
    Weaponizing Deadly Viruses: Historical Precedents (from 2009)
    https://www.infowars.com/weaponizing...al-precedents/



    China is having outbreaks ya say..

    They were just invited for Joint Military exercises in Russia.
    May be joining in Syria..

    just sayin'
    US diplomats involved in trafficking of human blood and pathogens for secret military program

    This and other upgraded bio-threat reduction facilities in the region are designed to stop diseases like plague and African swine fever from spreading globally.

    http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...=1#post6680677
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by pcosmar View Post
    Weaponizing Deadly Viruses: Historical Precedents (from 2009)
    https://www.infowars.com/weaponizing...al-precedents/



    China is having outbreaks ya say..

    They were just invited for Joint Military exercises in Russia.
    May be joining in Syria..

    just sayin'
    Western Europe on swine fever alert as Belgium sees wild boar cases

    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  15. #13
    Swordsmyth

    Do you ever have the thought that your chair is not nearly as safe as you think it is?

    I know some things (not everything)

    and my trust is not this world..

    Things are getting interesting in my old age,, and there is evil on the horizon.
    Liberty is lost through complacency and a subservient mindset. When we accept or even welcome automobile checkpoints, random searches, mandatory identification cards, and paramilitary police in our streets, we have lost a vital part of our American heritage. America was born of protest, revolution, and mistrust of government. Subservient societies neither maintain nor deserve freedom for long.
    Ron Paul 2004

    Registered Ron Paul supporter # 2202
    It's all about Freedom

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by pcosmar View Post
    Swordsmyth

    Do you ever have the thought that your chair is not nearly as safe as you think it is?

    I know some things (not everything)

    and my trust is not this world..

    Things are getting interesting in my old age,, and there is evil on the horizon.
    I don't understand what you mean by my "chair", I was agreeing with you that someone seems to be playing games with ASF.

    The world is a very dangerous place filled with evil and although it waxes and wanes it will overall get worse until Armageddon.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    I don't understand what you mean by my "chair", I was agreeing with you that someone seems to be playing games with ASF.

    The world is a very dangerous place filled with evil and although it waxes and wanes it will overall get worse until Armageddon.
    Your Chair.. Where you sit.. thought that part was simple..

    Understanding that other part as a reality, puts you ahead of those that wish to make people "better". or believe in a better world.

    it is what it is.
    Liberty is lost through complacency and a subservient mindset. When we accept or even welcome automobile checkpoints, random searches, mandatory identification cards, and paramilitary police in our streets, we have lost a vital part of our American heritage. America was born of protest, revolution, and mistrust of government. Subservient societies neither maintain nor deserve freedom for long.
    Ron Paul 2004

    Registered Ron Paul supporter # 2202
    It's all about Freedom

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by pcosmar View Post
    Your Chair.. Where you sit.. thought that part was simple..
    It should have been but I have encountered many people on the internet who use arcane metaphors and the like so I wasn't completely sure.


    Quote Originally Posted by pcosmar View Post
    Understanding that other part as a reality, puts you ahead of those that wish to make people "better". or believe in a better world.

    it is what it is.
    But we can improve our area or at least limit the decay around us temporarily, there will always be better and worse regions around the world.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by goldenequity View Post
    Speaking of pigs...

    see that red spot?

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1041458661032374272

    apparently... (as per friend o'mine in SC)...
    The 'New Bern' valley/watershed area is the Smithfield 'Pork Capital' of the US.
    (China bought Smithfield bout 5 yrs ago...)
    he sez...
    the swine are 'raised' on concrete slabs...
    which are then 'sprayed/water washed' hourly/regularly...
    the 'runoff'' blackwater is captured/held in giant aeration bermed, 'ponds'.
    Can't imagine what has happened/happening... ugh. uke:


    -----

    just found this...
    https://www.newsweek.com/florence-po...rolina-1123097
    “Rainfall amounts across the region have not exceeded the available capacity of farm lagoons on whole across the industry,” the North Carolina Pork Council said. “Lagoon levels were low ahead of the storm” after the waste was used as crop fertilizer, the group said.

    More at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rence-subsides
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post




    But we can improve our area or at least limit the decay around us temporarily, there will always be better and worse regions around the world.
    I attempt to do so where I am. (where ever I find myself)

    but I am just passing thru
    Liberty is lost through complacency and a subservient mindset. When we accept or even welcome automobile checkpoints, random searches, mandatory identification cards, and paramilitary police in our streets, we have lost a vital part of our American heritage. America was born of protest, revolution, and mistrust of government. Subservient societies neither maintain nor deserve freedom for long.
    Ron Paul 2004

    Registered Ron Paul supporter # 2202
    It's all about Freedom

  22. #19
    The Chinese eat so much pork that when its price goes up, the cost of other things rises, too. For the Communist Party, therefore, keeping affordable meat on the table is vital, not least for the stability of the economy. In 2007, for example, an estimated 45m pigs died in China from "blue ear pig disease". Pork prices rocketed; the annual rate of increase of the consumer price index (sometimes known as the "consumer pig index" because of the creature's prominent role in it) hit a ten-year high. Panic buying ensued. There were reports of customers being injured in a crush on a supermarket escalator when rushing to buy cheap chilled pork in Guangzhou, and a general pork-buying frenzy across China. Imports doubled.
    In response the party established the world's first pork reserve, some of it in frozen form and some the live, snorting variety. This aims to keep pork affordable and reasonably priced: when pigs become too expensive, the government releases some of its stock onto the market; if they become too cheap, the reserve buys more porkers to keep farmers in profit. Other pro-pork policies include grants, tax incentives, cheap loans for farms and free animal immunisation--all intended to boost intensive pig farming and to keep plates loaded high with Chinese pork. According to Chatham House, a London-based think-tank, the Chinese government subsidised pork production by $22 billion in 2012. That is roughly $47 per pig.

    Feeding the pigs is not farmers' only concern. Their greatest fear is disease: growth slows when a pig gets sick, and, even more worryingly, swine on modern Chinese farms tend to be genetically similar (many are half-siblings), so when one gets ill, much of the herd may succumb.

    More at: https://www.businessinsider.com/chin...-2014-12/?IR=T
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  23. #20
    moar pig fackz:

    'feral pigs' are 'open season' all year round in Texas.
    utterly destructive to cattle grazing and crops/fields
    hunted with helicopters
    have cross-bred 'in the wild' with 'original sport pigs' brought from Europe in the 1800's
    they have 'tusks'
    they can grow (wait for it....) to 800 pounds.

  24. #21
    @Swordsmyth
    .... the Lugar Lab story just crashed into your swine thread.


    Defensive bioweapon? DARPA wants insects to spread genetically modified viruses… to ‘save crops’
    https://www.rt.com/usa/440367-darpa-...ies-bioweapon/


    "The Russian military is now looking into the outbreaks of African swine fever since 2007 that originated in Georgia and spread into Russia, Europe and China."

    “The infection strain in the samples collected from animals killed by the disease in those nations was identical to the Georgia-2007 strain,” Igor Kirillov, commander of the Russian military branch responsible for defending troops from radiological, chemical and biological weapons, said on Thursday.

    The Pentagon, however, rejected Moscow’s concerns as part of “a Russian disinformation campaign directed against the West.”

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by goldenequity View Post
    @Swordsmyth
    .... the Lugar Lab story just crashed into your swine thread.


    Defensive bioweapon? DARPA wants insects to spread genetically modified viruses… to ‘save crops’
    https://www.rt.com/usa/440367-darpa-...ies-bioweapon/


    "The Russian military is now looking into the outbreaks of African swine fever since 2007 that originated in Georgia and spread into Russia, Europe and China."

    “The infection strain in the samples collected from animals killed by the disease in those nations was identical to the Georgia-2007 strain,” Igor Kirillov, commander of the Russian military branch responsible for defending troops from radiological, chemical and biological weapons, said on Thursday.

    The Pentagon, however, rejected Moscow’s concerns as part of “a Russian disinformation campaign directed against the West.”
    I thought there might be a connection when I saw this in timosman's wikipedia link in that thread:

    . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richar...ealth_Research

    This and other upgraded bio-threat reduction facilities in the region are designed to stop diseases like plague and African swine fever from spreading globally.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  26. #23
    Reuters Top News
    @Reuters
    2 hod.
    JUST IN: China agriculture ministry says new African swine fever outbreak confirmed in Anshan City, Liaoning Province

  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by goldenequity View Post
    Reuters Top News
    @Reuters
    2 hod.
    JUST IN: China agriculture ministry says new African swine fever outbreak confirmed in Anshan City, Liaoning Province
    China said on Monday it has confirmed a new outbreak of African swine fever in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of northern China, as authorities struggle to contain the highly contagious disease. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said a slaughterhouse in the city of Hohhot reported the outbreak, adding that four pigs were infected with, and two had died from, African swine fever.
    The world’s top pork producer has seen a steady stream of new outbreaks since the first case was reported in early August. Authorities have banned the transport of live hogs and pig products from regions bordering provinces where African swine fever has been reported, shut live markets and banned the use of feed derived from pig blood in order to contain the disease.

    More at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKCN1M40UU
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  29. #25
    China banned imports of pigs, wild boars and products from Bulgaria following an outbreak of African swine fever in the European country, Chinese customs said on Monday. China also ordered the return or destruction of products shipped from Bulgaria, according to a statement published on the official WeChat account of the China’s General Administration of Customs on Monday and dated September 28.
    The orders were effective from that date.
    Beijing also banned visitors from bringing in pigs, wild boars, and products from Bulgaria and would seal the products on board any transport vehicles passing through China, the statement said.

    More at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKCN1MI113
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    China said on Monday it has confirmed a new outbreak of African swine fever in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of northern China,
    October 8, 2018 / 7:53 PM / Updated 3 hours ago
    China reports second African swine fever outbreak in Liaoning province this week
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKCN1MJ06J

    BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s northeastern province of Liaoning has reported a new outbreak of African swine fever,
    the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday, the province’s second case in two days.
    The latest outbreak occurred on a farm with 460 pigs in the city of Anshan, killing 160 pigs and infecting another 160, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said.
    Local authorities have banned the movement of hogs, related products and animals that are easily infected both into and outside the affected area.
    On Monday, the city of Yingkou reported a swine fever case which killed 93 pigs and infected 334 others.
    -----------

    yeah this is a diff one.. another outbreak..

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by goldenequity View Post
    October 8, 2018 / 7:53 PM / Updated 3 hours ago
    China reports second African swine fever outbreak in Liaoning province this week
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKCN1MJ06J

    BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s northeastern province of Liaoning has reported a new outbreak of African swine fever,
    the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday, the province’s second case in two days.
    The latest outbreak occurred on a farm with 460 pigs in the city of Anshan, killing 160 pigs and infecting another 160, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said.
    Local authorities have banned the movement of hogs, related products and animals that are easily infected both into and outside the affected area.
    On Monday, the city of Yingkou reported a swine fever case which killed 93 pigs and infected 334 others.
    -----------

    yeah this is a diff one.. another outbreak..
    I predict it won't be the last.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  32. #28
    A funny thing happened on the way to hog slaughter this year; after much talk of the domestic herd swelling in size - and a setback after Hurricane Florence hit North Carolina which should have normalized by now, analysts expecting a a spike in slaughter rates have been left scratching their heads over a puzzling shortfall, according to Bloomberg.

    Further compounding supply woes is a highly contagious pig virus, African Swine Fever, which is spreading rapidly through China - the world's #1 consumer of pork. Several new outbreaks of the disease were reported his week.

    The spread of swine fever in China is increasing the chances the Asian nation will need to import more of the meat, according to Cobank. China would likely buy from the European Union and Canada, but American producers could still capitalize on the reduced global competition in pork, the U.S. agricultural lender said in a report Tuesday.
    The pig-virus outbreak has caused increased volatility for hog futures. A measure of 60-day volatility peaked last month, but could surge anew if the disease continues to spread. -Bloomberg
    The combined factors sent hog futures up by the exchange limit of 3 cents on Wednesday, settling at 57.525 cents a pound - a spike of 11% this week.
    "We don’t have this backup in market hogs like we expected," said Rich Nelson, chief strategist at Allendale Inc. in McHenry, Illinois - who suggested that perhaps USDA estimates of rising animal inventories may have been improperly calculated.
    Nelson says that the industry had anticipated a prolonged slaughter this year, topping 2.6 million animals per week - yet the actual figures have been consistently lower than expected, and are unlikely to breach the expected figures until just before Thanksgiving at this point.



    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...-makes-traders
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  33. #29
    10/29/2018
    Christine McCracken

    Few people are as knowledgeable about the meat industry as Christine McCracken, executive director, animal protein, at Rabobank.
    I sat down with her at the company’s U.S. headquarters on Park Avenue in New York City to talk risks and rewards in the pig business right now.


    SF: What’s top of mind today?

    CM: African Swine Fever [ASF] in China. We’re so heavily dependent now on exports. About 26% of our pork is exported. It all comes down to China.
    Given the lack of biosecurity, the number of pigs in the country, and the fact that half are backyard pigs, there’s almost no way they can get ASF under control.
    So they’re likely to have massive losses, and the question is how do they backfill those losses?
    We are focused on how quickly they can ramp up production. How are they going to feed their people? Because if they don’t feed their people, they’ve got a massive political issue.
    Food insecurity is not a good recipe for future political aspirations.

    SF: Are we getting good data on what’​s happening there?

    CM: No. A lot of contacts have gone dark because there’s a press ban right now in China.
    There are people who have had contacts in China for years and they haven’t heard from them for a month. It’s kind of scary.

    SF: What can we assume about the spread of the virus?

    CM: It is all over China. They don’t have a great track record with controlling viruses.
    They are trying to trace contaminated blood meal from infected pigs, but it was distributed all over before this got full-blown.

    The question isn’t whether or not ASF is there, it’s magnitude and speed. How quickly are the losses going to add up?
    We’re watching the pork supply leading up to the Chinese New Year. They’ll need a big supply for the holiday.
    After they move through all that inventory, how do they replenish it?

    They’ve lifted the travel restrictions to get pigs to plants in some areas.
    They’re trying to get pigs killed because they’re backing up on the farms and can’t get to the packing plants.
    There’s no human health impact, so they are going to feed their people with the pork they can get from ASF-infected animals.

    SF: Has China given up eradicating ASF?

    CM: I think so. Why else would they lift the restrictions? It would be nearly impossible for them to have it under control at this point.
    SF: Where will it spread next?

    CM: All over Asia. Vietnam will probably be next, and that’s a top-10 producer.


    SF: What does this mean for the U.S. pork industry? Some people say it could be a good thing.

    CM: It could be good…until we get it. Risk and reward. The reward is fantastic, and that’s tangible and probable. Right now, the anticipation is pushing the market.
    We’re dealing with a lot of pork. If ASF wasn’t out there, it would be a far different picture today.
    We were looking at massive losses and some probable liquidation and bankruptcies in the industry through this fall and winter,
    and that looks a lot different today than it did in August. We were looking down the barrel of a disaster.

    SF: Will we get the virus here?

    CM: If we do, we will likely be one of the last to get it. I don’t think it will enter a commercial herd. It will come in with an infected wild boar, uncured meat, or feedstuffs.

    SF: What happens if we get it?

    CM: There will be an immediate trade ban for at least 72 hours on everything moving from the country.
    After that, the government will designate a containment area in a buffer zone, similar to what they’ve done in Europe, and that region is not allowed to trade.
    My view is, we’d likely be the last global region to get ASF. At that point, most trading partners are not going to have any other sources without ASF.

    SF: What is another issue in agriculture you are following?

    CM: Labor. There are seven new broiler plants coming online in the next 18 months, and each one needs hundreds of workers or more.
    So, that’s at least 5,000 new poultry plant workers. Where are they all coming from?

    We are looking for labor solutions as an industry aside from automation, which everybody is doing to the extent possible.
    There’s no easy solution. Raising wages didn’t do it. Companies are putting in free health care programs for families, gyms, cafeterias, better parking, childcare programs, and more.

    This is a global problem. Mexico is having similar issues. Even Cambodia has a worker shortage for their poultry plants. That’s not good.

    We need to encourage kids to look at trades and rethink the educational skills people need.
    We’re running out of plumbers, electricians, and truck drivers. People in the older generation who had those skills are retiring and we have this void across many industries.

    SF: More pork producers have entered the packing industry, such as Pipestone System (as WholeStone Farms) buying the Hormel plant in Fremont, Nebraska.

    CM: Producers always want to own a packing plant because they feel like they’re losing out on huge margins.
    That’s great if you want to diversify and get involved in another part of the food system.
    The problem is, those plants don’t run themselves. They require a lot of investment in upgrades.

    I’m really happy for Pipestone that they’ve fulfilled their dream of owning a plant. Now, the work starts. It is not clear if that plant will be as easy to fix as they expect.
    They have really smart people and they will figure it out, but it will take a lot of time and a lot of money. Labor will probably be an issue for this plant, too.
    Today they say they have enough labor. That’s great until the Costco broiler plant opens next door.

    SF: What are some issues for agriculture down the road?

    CM: I’ve been giving a lot of speeches lately on the development of alternative protein and what that means for traditional agriculture.
    There are people creating new products in that space that are very impassioned, well-funded, and confident that animal agriculture is ruining the environment.
    How this sector develops alongside traditional animal protein will matter.

    Another big issue is succession. At least half of pork producers don’t do enough succession planning.
    There are a few that have done a nice job, like Schwartz Farms and Holden Farms in Minnesota. Otherwise, I think you’ll probably see more Pipestone-type management of farms.

    On a positive note, I see more young people coming to ag meetings lately. I think they like farming. My son isn’t growing up on a farm, but he wants to go into agriculture. He’s really focused on gene editing. He says, “People will always have to have food.”

    SF: Tell me about Rabobank.

    CM: We work with all types of companies up and down the food chain here in the U.S. and around the world. In pork, we work with most of the packers and many of the large producers. Rabo AgriFinance, a U.S. subsidiary that provides financing directly to growers, has made it a priority to serve more in the pork industry.

    SF: What’s one last prediction?

    CM: A recession is around the corner. This could mean big change for the entire agricultural complex – pork included.

    BIO

    Name: Christine McCracken
    Title: Executive director, animal protein, Rabobank
    Hometown: Springfield, Minnesota
    Education: Bachelor of science, University of Georgia, agricultural economics and international agricultural business. Masters, University of California-Davis, agricultural economics
    Career: Spent 20 years on Wall Street following the food and agriculture stocks. Founded and merged several companies. Came to Rabobank in 2017 as a protein industry analyst.
    Rabobank: Global leader in food and agriculture financing, headquartered in the Netherlands.

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by goldenequity View Post
    10/29/2018
    Christine McCracken

    Few people are as knowledgeable about the meat industry as Christine McCracken, executive director, animal protein, at Rabobank.
    I sat down with her at the company’s U.S. headquarters on Park Avenue in New York City to talk risks and rewards in the pig business right now.


    SF: What’s top of mind today?

    CM: African Swine Fever [ASF] in China. We’re so heavily dependent now on exports. About 26% of our pork is exported. It all comes down to China.
    Given the lack of biosecurity, the number of pigs in the country, and the fact that half are backyard pigs, there’s almost no way they can get ASF under control.
    So they’re likely to have massive losses, and the question is how do they backfill those losses?
    We are focused on how quickly they can ramp up production. How are they going to feed their people? Because if they don’t feed their people, they’ve got a massive political issue.
    Food insecurity is not a good recipe for future political aspirations.

    SF: Are we getting good data on what’​s happening there?

    CM: No. A lot of contacts have gone dark because there’s a press ban right now in China.
    There are people who have had contacts in China for years and they haven’t heard from them for a month. It’s kind of scary.

    SF: What can we assume about the spread of the virus?

    CM: It is all over China. They don’t have a great track record with controlling viruses.
    They are trying to trace contaminated blood meal from infected pigs, but it was distributed all over before this got full-blown.

    The question isn’t whether or not ASF is there, it’s magnitude and speed. How quickly are the losses going to add up?
    We’re watching the pork supply leading up to the Chinese New Year. They’ll need a big supply for the holiday.
    After they move through all that inventory, how do they replenish it?

    They’ve lifted the travel restrictions to get pigs to plants in some areas.
    They’re trying to get pigs killed because they’re backing up on the farms and can’t get to the packing plants.
    There’s no human health impact, so they are going to feed their people with the pork they can get from ASF-infected animals.

    SF: Has China given up eradicating ASF?

    CM: I think so. Why else would they lift the restrictions? It would be nearly impossible for them to have it under control at this point.
    SF: Where will it spread next?

    CM: All over Asia. Vietnam will probably be next, and that’s a top-10 producer.


    SF: What does this mean for the U.S. pork industry? Some people say it could be a good thing.

    CM: It could be good…until we get it. Risk and reward. The reward is fantastic, and that’s tangible and probable. Right now, the anticipation is pushing the market.
    We’re dealing with a lot of pork. If ASF wasn’t out there, it would be a far different picture today.
    We were looking at massive losses and some probable liquidation and bankruptcies in the industry through this fall and winter,
    and that looks a lot different today than it did in August. We were looking down the barrel of a disaster.

    SF: Will we get the virus here?

    CM: If we do, we will likely be one of the last to get it. I don’t think it will enter a commercial herd. It will come in with an infected wild boar, uncured meat, or feedstuffs.

    SF: What happens if we get it?

    CM: There will be an immediate trade ban for at least 72 hours on everything moving from the country.
    After that, the government will designate a containment area in a buffer zone, similar to what they’ve done in Europe, and that region is not allowed to trade.
    My view is, we’d likely be the last global region to get ASF. At that point, most trading partners are not going to have any other sources without ASF.

    SF: What is another issue in agriculture you are following?

    CM: Labor. There are seven new broiler plants coming online in the next 18 months, and each one needs hundreds of workers or more.
    So, that’s at least 5,000 new poultry plant workers. Where are they all coming from?

    We are looking for labor solutions as an industry aside from automation, which everybody is doing to the extent possible.
    There’s no easy solution. Raising wages didn’t do it. Companies are putting in free health care programs for families, gyms, cafeterias, better parking, childcare programs, and more.

    This is a global problem. Mexico is having similar issues. Even Cambodia has a worker shortage for their poultry plants. That’s not good.

    We need to encourage kids to look at trades and rethink the educational skills people need.
    We’re running out of plumbers, electricians, and truck drivers. People in the older generation who had those skills are retiring and we have this void across many industries.

    SF: More pork producers have entered the packing industry, such as Pipestone System (as WholeStone Farms) buying the Hormel plant in Fremont, Nebraska.

    CM: Producers always want to own a packing plant because they feel like they’re losing out on huge margins.
    That’s great if you want to diversify and get involved in another part of the food system.
    The problem is, those plants don’t run themselves. They require a lot of investment in upgrades.

    I’m really happy for Pipestone that they’ve fulfilled their dream of owning a plant. Now, the work starts. It is not clear if that plant will be as easy to fix as they expect.
    They have really smart people and they will figure it out, but it will take a lot of time and a lot of money. Labor will probably be an issue for this plant, too.
    Today they say they have enough labor. That’s great until the Costco broiler plant opens next door.

    SF: What are some issues for agriculture down the road?

    CM: I’ve been giving a lot of speeches lately on the development of alternative protein and what that means for traditional agriculture.
    There are people creating new products in that space that are very impassioned, well-funded, and confident that animal agriculture is ruining the environment.
    How this sector develops alongside traditional animal protein will matter.

    Another big issue is succession. At least half of pork producers don’t do enough succession planning.
    There are a few that have done a nice job, like Schwartz Farms and Holden Farms in Minnesota. Otherwise, I think you’ll probably see more Pipestone-type management of farms.

    On a positive note, I see more young people coming to ag meetings lately. I think they like farming. My son isn’t growing up on a farm, but he wants to go into agriculture. He’s really focused on gene editing. He says, “People will always have to have food.”

    SF: Tell me about Rabobank.

    CM: We work with all types of companies up and down the food chain here in the U.S. and around the world. In pork, we work with most of the packers and many of the large producers. Rabo AgriFinance, a U.S. subsidiary that provides financing directly to growers, has made it a priority to serve more in the pork industry.

    SF: What’s one last prediction?

    CM: A recession is around the corner. This could mean big change for the entire agricultural complex – pork included.

    BIO

    Name: Christine McCracken
    Title: Executive director, animal protein, Rabobank
    Hometown: Springfield, Minnesota
    Education: Bachelor of science, University of Georgia, agricultural economics and international agricultural business. Masters, University of California-Davis, agricultural economics
    Career: Spent 20 years on Wall Street following the food and agriculture stocks. Founded and merged several companies. Came to Rabobank in 2017 as a protein industry analyst.
    Rabobank: Global leader in food and agriculture financing, headquartered in the Netherlands.
    You must spread some reputation around....
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

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