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Thread: U.S. Farm-Export Prices Drop Most Since 2011

  1. #61
    Quote Originally Posted by Danke View Post
    Going into debt with OPM is not always a bad thing, but for many farmers it is because the collateral they have to put up is their land. Default, lose the farm and your children's inheritance.

    My cousins have a farm that their grandfather and father grew in size by leasing land and saving until they could purchase. They did this strategy throughout the years while others bowered and went bust in lean times or when interest rates increased. Remember Farm Aid?
    Do u have a graph showing that farmer went bust during lean years? I am sure that graph would help someone out on this forum . Jokes aside

    Don't remember farm aid, but I couldn't agree with the point about taking loans(loads or money) is not always a bad thing. Yes, it is a riskier path to follow than what your cousin did but that path failing because of govt positive intervention should piss ppl on this forum off.



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  3. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by phill4paul View Post
    Huh?
    Yea

  4. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    It is unwise to finance farm equipment if you want to survive and thrive in the future . Cash is the way to go.

  5. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by juleswin View Post
    Yea
    ...



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  7. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by juleswin View Post
    Do u have a graph showing that farmer went bust during lean years? I am sure that graph would help someone out on this forum . Jokes aside

    Don't remember farm aid, but I couldn't agree with the point about taking loans(loads or money) is not always a bad thing. Yes, it is a riskier path to follow than what your cousin did but that path failing because of govt positive intervention should piss ppl on this forum off.
    Damage from trade wars is the responsibility of those who start them, that means it isn't Trump's fault for defending America.
    I am mad at the foreign countries who started the trade wars.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  8. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by juleswin View Post
    Do u have a graph showing that farmer went bust during lean years? I am sure that graph would help someone out on this forum . Jokes aside

    Don't remember farm aid, but I couldn't agree with the point about taking loans(loads or money) is not always a bad thing. Yes, it is a riskier path to follow than what your cousin did but that path failing because of govt positive intervention should piss ppl on this forum off.
    You weren't born then or even a gleam in your daddy's eye.

  9. #67
    So , I take it Jules has never smoked weed with Willie .
    Do something Danke

  10. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    So , I take it Jules has never smoked weed with Willie .
    Never smoked it with him, but have to him. I'd like to do it in person.


  11. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by angelatc View Post
    I am pretty sure this never actually happened, Mr. Strawman.
    You would be wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by H_H View Post
    It doesn't even cause any effect. Look, all these farm products are commodity products. They are globally interchangeable. They are traded on an efficient global market.

    Let's say China tariffs- -- or forget that: even embargoes! -- all American soybeans. OK? What effect will that have. Let's see: No more soybeans sold to China.

    From America.

    Is China still going to consume soybeans?

    Ahh.....

    So the price of soybeans is 800 let's say. This is a global, worldwide price, remember, on a global, worldwide market. China embargoes the US. What then happens to the soybean price?

    Well, again, does China keep consuming soybeans?

    They do? Well imagine that. So that means they will be buying an equal number of beans from someone else. From Chile or Lima or wherever. And so that means those beans are being re-routed and whose will fill the void in their former destinations? Could it be beans from...... Iowa?

    It all evens out and makes no difference in the end. The price is still 800. One soybean is much like another. The market is liquid. It's akin to sitting in the middle of a pond with a big bucket, scooping up water from one side of the boat and dumping it out on the other side. How long will it take you to punish all those bad fish on the left side by lowering their water level?

    How long?

    Yeah.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Pinochet is the model
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Liberty preserving authoritarianism.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Enforced internal open borders was one of the worst elements of the Constitution.

  12. #70
    Quote Originally Posted by angelatc View Post
    Again, not only did that never happen, the article you posted clearly states The figures exclude the price effect from any tariffs.
    That just means that the price that they're quoting is the price not including the tax rate.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Pinochet is the model
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Liberty preserving authoritarianism.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Enforced internal open borders was one of the worst elements of the Constitution.

  13. #71
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    You would be wrong.
    HH may still be right.

    FROM YOUR ARTICLE:

    The figures exclude the price effect from any tariffs.
    So the price drop would have happened anyway.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  14. #72
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    HH may still be right.

    FROM YOUR ARTICLE:



    So the price drop would have happened anyway.
    RIF

    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    That just means that the price that they're quoting is the price not including the tax rate.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Pinochet is the model
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Liberty preserving authoritarianism.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Enforced internal open borders was one of the worst elements of the Constitution.



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  16. #73
    What have those chicoms been doing with all these beans anyway ? Cooking bugs and chicken feet in street oil ? How much can Danke eat ?
    Last edited by oyarde; 08-15-2018 at 08:27 PM.
    Do something Danke

  17. #74
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    Here , poor farmers barely making it do not accept govt money and have jobs . I oppose the USDA and subsidies . So you know , those nearly all go to corporations and wealthy people.
    I live here in the Heartland, as do you. There aren't any poor farmers here - they're all making bank.

  18. #75
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    That just means that the price that they're quoting is the price not including the tax rate.
    Just?

  19. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by juleswin View Post
    You cannot bait me into going that line of talk. I know you have this answers but your bias and your hero worship for Trump has stunted your thinking faculty.
    Everything is Trumps fault. Now go away.

  20. #77
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    HH may still be right.

    FROM YOUR ARTICLE:


    So the price drop would have happened anyway.
    Which makes more sense. Look at this chart of the global price over a 5 year spread: https://www.indexmundi.com/commoditi...eans&months=60


  21. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by angelatc View Post
    Which makes more sense. Look at this chart of the global price over a 5 year spread: https://www.indexmundi.com/commoditi...eans&months=60

    Trump manipulated the markets from Jan 2014 to Jan 2016.
    Pfizer Macht Frei!

    Openly Straight Man, Danke, Awarded Top Rated Influencer. Community Standards Enforcer.


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    The Federalist Papers, No. 15:

    Except as to the rule of appointment, the United States have an indefinite discretion to make requisitions for men and money; but they have no authority to raise either by regulations extending to the individual citizens of America.

  22. #79
    Quote Originally Posted by angelatc View Post
    Which makes more sense. Look at this chart of the global price over a 5 year spread: https://www.indexmundi.com/commoditi...eans&months=60

    At worst some speculators are manipulating the hype to drive down the price slightly, China is buying US soybeans and those who would have bought the Brazilian beans that China bought will probably buy US beans instead.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  23. #80
    China made a “dumb move” in targeting America’s heartland with tariffs. Soybeans are a case in point.
    “I understood politically why they chose soybeans, but they made a dumb move,” says John Baize, a market analyst with the U.S. Soybean Export Council. The U.S. is the number one exporter of soybeans. Brazil is number two. No one comes close after that except for Argentina, which is the largest exporter of soymeal and soybean oil.
    Soybeans don’t fall from the sky, so China has very little mega-markets outside of the U.S. Brazil is the only one, really. And now they are paying more for soy at a time when soy prices are near rock bottom thanks to record acreage and harvest sizes in Brazil and the U.S.
    Soy is the number one item China buys from the U.S. and a top three item from Brazil. That alone stands as a testament to just how important that crop is to feed not only the Chinese but Chinese fish and Chinese livestock that live on the stuff.

    “What’s going to happen is that if they don’t buy from the U.S. they will be short by about 20%,” estimates Baize. “This will impact feed grain and food in general, and the Chinese will pay the price for that,” he says.
    China has up to two years worth of reserve stocks. They could dig into those instead of buying. But then they will just need to replenish those reserves next year, meaning more demand and the likelihood of rising soybean prices.


    The U.S. could, in theory, lose some China market share to Brazil. But as Brazil soy is not limitless and low prices have many traders holding onto what they have anyway, they will end up selling less to Europe, the world’s No. 2 soy market after China. Less Brazil beans to Europe means more American beans to Europe. As the U.S. risks losing China market share to Brazil, so Brazil risks losing European market share to the Americans.
    The 25% tariff on soybeans is almost entirely priced into the price difference between U.S. soy and Brazilian soy. Brazilian soy always costs more simply because it is harder to get it out of the country. Today, soy prices in Brazil cost at least $2.60 more per bushel.
    The price differential is all because of Trump’s trade war and China’s retaliation. The last time the spread between Brazilian soy and American soy was this high was back in 2014 when the U.S. supply shrunk to near historic lows.
    “Trump has really confused the market, and that’s why prices are higher here now,” says Mauro Ulian, a commodities broker with Nova Futura Investimentos in Săo Paulo. A trucker’s strike in Brazil earlier this year also impacted soy premium prices, but nothing like the effect Trump has had.


    Normally prices ebb and flow with harvest season. This year is different. Trump sent prices higher, even though Chinese demand is not any greater than it’s been before. “It is definitely not because of Chinese demand. Chinese demand for Brazil soy is within historic norms; nothing exceptional,” says Ulian.
    China may end up buying from the U.S. and paying the price.
    “I’ll say this much, Trump has been a positive force for Brazilian farmers,” says Samuel Garcia Filho, a commodity broker with H.Commcor in Săo Paulo. “Low soy prices have been made up for by the rise in premium prices. For the Amewricans, we are hearing that Brazil-based exporters will buy from the U.S. cheap and sell to the Chinese high if they have to.”
    Over the last few years, roughly 75% of Brazil soy was shipped to China. That number is expected to go to 90% this year, according to Agribusiness Intelligence Informa in Sao Paulo.
    “Brazil will have the most expensive soy in the world," says Aedson Pereira, a market analyst with Informa. “The higher cost will probably restructure the global soy trade. The EU, Japan, Mexico and the countries of southeast Asia will likely focus their attention on buying from the U.S. instead,” he says.
    In 2017, Brazil exported 53.8 million tons of soy to China. This year, that number is expected to be around 66 million tons even though China is not really saving much by buying there. More Brazil soy to China means less soy elsewhere. The U.S. soy farmer will gladly sell where the Brazilians are not.


    The biggest problem for American soy producers is not the tariff. It’s soybean oversupply.
    Soy futures are expected to fall a little further if the U.S. harvest this fall is as good as the market forecasts. Soy prices are around $8.38 a bushel in the U.S. and over $10.50 per bushel in Brazil. China effectively gave itself a global soybean tariff.

    More at: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapo.../#4f0338622bc7
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  25. #81
    If I was selling beans to china I might see about selling them US beans from my brazilian office at 10 1/2 or so.
    Do something Danke

  26. #82
    I would give this thread one star if I could .
    Do something Danke

  27. #83
    In order to contribute to the site in a more positive manner I have a soy thread in off topic.
    Do something Danke

  28. #84
    Quote Originally Posted by angelatc View Post
    Just?
    Yes. As the title says, it is the export price, not the import price. That means that it does not include the tariffs.

    In other words, the price of purchasing the soybeans may have gone up, but the sale price - the amount of money that the farmers are getting - has gone down. -14% export price, +25% tariff, for example, is a net price increase, but the government is getting that revenue, not farmers.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Pinochet is the model
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Liberty preserving authoritarianism.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Enforced internal open borders was one of the worst elements of the Constitution.

  29. #85
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    Yes. As the title says, it is the export price, not the import price. That means that it does not include the tariffs.

    In other words, the price of purchasing the soybeans may have gone up, but the sale price - the amount of money that the farmers are getting - has gone down. -14% export price, +25% tariff, for example, is a net price increase, but the government is getting that revenue, not farmers.
    The figures exclude the price effect from any tariffs.
    So HH is right. The price didn't change, only the way the money was distributed.

    It's like you think we don't understand economics or something. So you create this huge strawman just so you can start a thread showing that you're right or something.

    Trust me - we all understand tariffs and their effects on trade. Where we differ is believing if they should be used as economic weapons. I am personally weary of losing the war on the middle class that the communists are waging. There's no support for unregulated free trade, which is my first choice, so I'm content to sit back and see what happens here.

  30. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by Danke View Post
    Trump manipulated the markets from Jan 2014 to Jan 2016.
    Actually , if you think about , bean prices are poised to continue down . From about 2014 - 2018 there are record yields , china has a two yr stockpile and they use it for livestock and fish feed . Kind of expensive to be using for that. I would expect them to try cheaper stuff eventually .
    Do something Danke

  31. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by angelatc View Post

    It's like you think we don't understand economics or something.

    Yeah, TheCount really bristles when some people here challenges his economic views. He bragged to me once in a half-assed way about his credentials. I am guessing he is some type of econ teacher.


    So you create this huge strawman just so you can start a thread showing that you're right or something.
    I don't know his bigger motivation in posting these threads: Because he gets paid to do so, or because he's trying to toot his own horn.

    By the way, Sonny Tufts is a tax lawyer and pulls the same shenanigans as TheCount.
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members

  32. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    I would give this thread one star if I could .



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  34. #89
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    Official Media Report: ”Farm Prices Drop 5.3 PerCENT!!!!!! Aack! Emergencium!!”

    Ha. Gotcha. And here I thought Helmuth had assured me that tariffs and trade wars can't affect prices. Must be unrelated. Hyuk, Hyuk.
    Wonks, ya can’t disprove Climate Change by pointing to weather reports. Duh. Some of us Believe in SCIENCE.




    I mean, not you, obviously, but decent people. Socially-acceptable-thinking people. Just because you read a weather report about how it snowed today in some podunk flyover dump of a town, full of deplorables, does not somehow magically disprove SCIENCE, nor, indeed, even address it on its same level.

    ...

    Hmm, are you all going to get this?

    Mayhaps I’m getting too esoteric.

    Should I go all literal and actually explain myself? Or do the smart kids already get it and say nah, H_H, don’t be lame. Leave lameitude to the midget slaver.

    i’ll go with not being lame for now.

    I will point out that he A’d me a Q on that other thread: “Oh, so does that mean tariffs never affect prices, durf durf?” And I, being the helpful servant I am, was all “I was applying sound and irrefutable analysis to one (1) specific situation which actually exists in reality, namely this one. So, nay, oh midwitted snarky one.” Question answered, answer dishonestly ignored in new thread.

    Like, that’s what you get with these people. No sincerity. No conversation. No humanity. Just totally dishonest. Relentlessly, unfailingly, dishonest.

    “Helmuth said things that affect prices can never affect prices.”



    “...But obviously they affect prices. And look at the latest pricing weather report. Ha! It proves, like, so much. So proofy. Lookit ma big brain. Just luckadit already! Big enuff to dupe all these moron oompa-loompas. Ha!”

    Sad.

    Just sad.

    So sad.


    Anyways all y’all wake me when the Chinamen decide to start eating less soy. Just like I *said*. But austerity’s hard. Dietary changes are particularly hard, for plebes. Does Xi have enough yang for that ying? Try it, pung-yo buddy. Bring-bríng!
    Last edited by H_H; 08-20-2018 at 09:06 AM.

  35. #90
    Tl;dr
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Pinochet is the model
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Liberty preserving authoritarianism.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Enforced internal open borders was one of the worst elements of the Constitution.

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