Boom. You can't out tariff us. Period. This Trump knows.

[Swordsmyth]

Though China wasn't the only Asian nation where manufacturing activity slumped last month, according to a slate of almost unilaterally disappointing PMI readings released earlier this week, the tend over the past year is increasingly clear: The trade war is President Trump's to win, as more tech companies resolve to move at least some production outside of the mainland.



And in the latest warning to Beijing that the trade war is having a real, and perhaps irreversible, impact, Nikkei Asian Review reports that HP, Dell and Amazon are joining the wave of consumer-electronics manufacturers who are planning to shift production elsewhere.
The burgeoning exodus, which also reportedly includes a half-dozen Apple suppliers (most notably Foxconn), Nintendo, Sony and others is threatening China's status as the global manufacturing hub.

HP and Dell, the world's No. 1 and No. 3 laptop manufacturers, who are responsible for a combined 40% of the world's production, are planning to shift 30% of their production elsewhere.
Lenovo Group, Acer and Asustek Computer are also evaluating plans to shift production elsewhere. And Amazon is planning to shift at least some of the production for its Kindle e-reader and Echo assistant. For all of these companies, the focus would mostly be on products bound for the US.
HP has already drawn up plans to move some 20% to 30% of production outside China, and is reportedly looking to build out a new supply chain in Thailand and Taiwan. The move could begin as soon as the end of the current quarter, though Nikkei's sources cautioned that it's not set in stone.


Dell, meanwhile, has already started a "pilot run" of notebook production in Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines, though it still has reservations about a possible shortage of skilled workers.

More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...-leaving-china

[Swordsmyth]

The largest supplier of consumer goods in the world - China's Li & Fung - has said that Chinese factories are becoming "urgent and desperate" as US retailers move out of the country amid the ongoing trade war, according to Bloomberg, and more factory shut downs are likely to follow as the trade war continues.

Companies like Li & Fung Ltd., which designs, sources and transports consumer goods from Asia for some of the world’s biggest retailers, are being pushed by their American clients to shift production out of China.
Spencer Fung, chief executive officer said: “U.S. clients are definitely very, very worried. Everyone is making razor-thin margins already and most people have a huge percentage in China. So if the biggest source increases the price by 25%, they are worried.”
And although he didn’t specify Walmart by name, the US retailer is the company's second largest customer, accounting for 7.6% of its revenue.


Because of its position as a liaison connecting American retail companies to Asian factories, Fung has a clear perspective of the shifts taking place around the world due to the trade war. While trade deal talks have "resumed" following a recent ceasefire, there are signs that the global supply chain, traditionally very reliant on China as the factory to the world, is being permanently transformed. Companies like Intel, Apple, and Amazon have all said they are reviewing their global supply chain.
Fung continued, talking about President Trump and his Twitter habits: "Nobody’s investing, nobody’s buying. The trade war is causing people to stop investment because they don’t know where to put the money. Many people put the money into Vietnam with one tweet."
Looking ahead, China’s contribution to Li & Fung's total sourcing will fall from 59% in 2015 to less than 50% this year for the first time.
Meanwhile, at the same time as Chinese factories are suffering, other Asian hubs have become beneficiaries. Americans have already seized all the manufacturing capacity in Vietnam as a result.
“Vietnam, for example, is full, completely full. There’s no extra capacity for the U.S. companies to get in,” Fung said.


To preserve market share, Chinese factories are slashing prices out of sheer desperation, creating an opportunity for European and Japanese consumer brands. Fung is advising clients to take advantage of these prices.


More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...-and-desperate

[Swordsmyth]

Import/Export Prices Tumble

[Swordsmyth]

Some Chinese companies are seeking new purchases of U.S. agricultural products, China's official Xinhua news agency said on Sunday, citing authorities, as Beijing and Washington look for ways to end a protracted trade war.

Chinese businesses have made inquiries with U.S. exporters to buy crops and agricultural products and applied for the lifting of tariffs, Xinhua said, citing Chinese authorities. China's Customs Tariff Commission will arrange for experts to appraise the Chinese companies' tariff exclusion applications, Xinhua said.

Hu Xijin, the editor in chief of China's nationalist Global Times newspaper, tweeted in English earlier on Sunday that Chinese importers have started arrangements for purchasing U.S. agricultural products, and suggested that the United States and China could soon resume in-person trade talks.
"This is a prominent part from Chinese side as the two countries have signaled goodwill to each other recently. It also indicates China-U.S. trade consultations will restart soon," Hu said.
Trump said on Friday that Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin had a very good talk with his Chinese counterpart the day before. He has also touted U.S. economic performance, and said China is "not doing very well".
China has confirmed that Vice Premier Liu He and Commerce Minister Zhong Shan spoke by phone on Thursday with Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer regarding "further consultations, as well as the implementation of presidential consensus reached in Osaka".
China made its biggest purchase of U.S. sorghum since April earlier this month, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data issued on Thursday.

More at: https://news.yahoo.com/1-chinese-com...111753425.html

[Swordsmyth]

It might seem an unlikely time for U.S. farmers to look to China for more business but the devastating impact of African swine fever on the Chinese pork industry is trumping concerns about trade wars and tariffs.Experts estimate the disease will wipe out about a third of China's pork production this year, or 18 million tonnes. That's twice the amount of pork exported worldwide every year and enough to feed U.S. consumers for almost two years.
The U.S. trade war with China initially forced U.S. pork exporters to scour the world for new markets but as the swine fever crisis deepens they're gearing up for new opportunities to supply the Chinese market later this year and next.
The catch for U.S. hog farmers is that if they want to take advantage of the surge in Chinese pork demand, they can't feed their pigs with the growth drug ractopamine which is widely used in the United States but banned in China.
In recent years, the European Union has provided roughly two-thirds of China's pork imports, excluding offal, with Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark the main suppliers, according to Chinese customs data.
Potential demand is so huge, however, that the EU alone can't satisfy it. U.S. producers of ractopamine-free pigs could benefit, either by supplying China or making up shortfalls in other regions targeting the Chinese market.
Sixth-generation Iowa hog farmer Mike Paustian would certainly like to benefit from producing pigs without ractopamine, even though it helps pigs quickly build lean muscle instead of fat.
Paustian said his buyer at Tyson Foods Inc., the biggest U.S. meatpacker, was considering paying a premium for pork free of ractopamine, which is also banned in the European Union, and that could push some farmers to stop using it.


Rival U.S. pork producer Smithfield Foods, which is owned by China's WH Group, already raises all of the hogs on its company-owned and contract farms without the drug.
Traders and analysts said Smithfield was reconfiguring its U.S. processing operations to direct meat to China, which produced half the world's pork before swine fever decimated the industry.
Diana Souder, a Smithfield spokeswoman, declined to comment on the specific changes but said the company upgraded a plant in Smithfield, Virginia as "part of a broader initiative to better organise our production to meet demand".
"Not just Smithfield, but every U.S. pork processor will be shipping more product to China and the demand side is just expected to be strong, certainly into 2020," Smithfield CEO Ken Sullivan told analysts on a call.
The ongoing trade war between Beijing and Washington hit U.S. pork exports to China last year when its market share halved to 7% from 14% a year earlier, according to Chinese customs data.
But as African swine fever swept across China during the second half of 2018, expectations for demand started to pick up - even though duties on U.S. pork going to China were raised to 62% from 12% last year as part of tit-for-tat trade sanctions.
According to data from the U.S. Meat Export Federation, U.S. pork exports to China and Hong Kong rose 33% in May from a year earlier to 45,442 tonnes - though exports for the first five months of 2019 were still 7% lower than in 2018.
David Williams, head of strategic sourcing and commodities risk management at U.S. company CTI Foods, said U.S. hog farmers had already benefited indirectly from swine fever as it had driven up pork prices generally.
The price rises were sorely needed because many U.S. farmers had expanded output to supply a string of new U.S. processing plants, just as separate U.S. trade disputes with Mexico and China hit trade volumes.
"They got a lifeboat," said Williams, adding that increasing demand from China could be an added bonus.
"They're going to have to get this pork from somewhere," said Williams, who formerly led export sales and futures trading for Cargill's meat business unit. "The U.S. is going to benefit, so is Brazil and Europe."
He said monthly U.S. pork exports to China could treble by the end of 2019, assuming the two countries strike a trade deal.


Demand from China is expected to remain strong next year as a plunge in the number of breeding sows means it will take time to rebuild the country's pig stock. As many as half of China's sows may have died, according to industry estimates shared with Reuters.

Pork prices in China have already risen substantially since March and the agricultural ministry has said they could surge by 70 percent in the coming months as a result of the outbreak. Pork accounts for more than 60% of Chinese meat consumption.
"The rebuilding of China's sow herd could also take several years given the potential recontamination risk," ratings agency Fitch said in a July 9 report, which noted swine fever was having a positive impact on Smithfield's debt ratings.
China is not the only country hit. There have been outbreaks of swine fever in Vietnam, Cambodia, Mongolia, North Korea and Laos. It has also already spread across parts of central and eastern Europe and even been found in wild boars in Belgium.
EU export prospects would suffer a massive blow if the disease, which does not harm people, reached top European exporting nations such as Germany or Spain.
European industry sources said a surge in Chinese buying earlier this year had largely emptied warehouses and the flow of pork exports, while still steady, was not quite as strong now due to limited supplies.


Given the potential for a protracted trade war, U.S. farmers may still be wary of being overly dependent on Chinese trade. Canadian pork exporters initially benefited from the surge in demand by exporting more ractopamine-free pigs.
But Chinese officials found ractopamine in a Canadian pork shipment in June. Three Canadian exporters have now been banned from selling to China and Beijing has called for all Canadian meat imports to be suspended.
Canada's share of China's pork imports ranged from 11% to 14% in the 2016-2018 period, Chinese customs data shows.


Another major pork exporter, Brazil, is expecting to increase shipments by more than 20% in 2019 to almost 800,000 tonnes thanks to Chinese demand, producer group ABPA has said.
Brazil allows the use of ractopamine but has been exporting pork free of the growth drug for about six years, Rui Vargas, a director at ABPA said. More companies are adopting ractopamine-free protocols to export pork, he said, declining to name any.
The magnitude of lost pork production in China, however, means some Chinese consumers may need to change their diets.
"Consumers will need to shift part of their pork consumption to other products. This should result in a higher demand for other proteins, particularly poultry meat," the European Commission said.

More at: https://news.yahoo.com/insight-u-far...010000320.html

[Swordsmyth]

The United States has shipped several million tonnes of soybeans to China since the two countries' leaders met in June, Chinese state media said on Sunday, an apparent sign of goodwill before trade talks in Shanghai this week.

China has made enquiries to U.S. suppliers for the purchase of soybeans, cotton, pork sorghum and other agricultural products since July 19, and some sales have been made, state broadcaster CCTV said, citing China's National Development and Reform Commission and Ministry of Commerce.
"As long as the American agricultural products are reasonably priced and of good quality, it is expected that there will be new purchases," the report said.
Companies involved in the sales have applied for exclusions to tariffs on agricultural goods with Chinese customs officials, it said.
It added that the moves show China's willingness to promote U.S. products and make good on a consensus reached between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Osaka in June.

More at: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-shi...114149495.html

[devil21]

More tariffs announced today and stocks tanked. Metals shot up. 10-25%+ higher cost on imported products for Americans incoming.

"Tariffs are a disaster. We're cooked." - American Apparel CEO, interview on CNBC today.

[Swordsmyth]

More tariffs announced today and stocks tanked. Metals shot up. 10-25%+ higher cost on imported products for Americans incoming.

"Tariffs are a disaster. We're cooked." - American Apparel CEO, interview on CNBC today.

We will do just fine as we have with the previous tariffs, tell Xi we appreciate his concern but he should be worried about his own economy that is going to collapse.

[Swordsmyth]

New federal earnings figures for ALL Americans, including minorities, are panicking the Left, because they are so good for Donald Trump

A cluster of economic reports just released confirm the continuing strength of the U.S. economy. This is especially impressive in light of the perceived global slowdown, including the economic powerhouses of Germany and China.
Wednesday’s report from accounting firm ADP showed job growth across all sectors of the economy in July, as well as across all sizes of businesses. The goods-producing sector — mining, construction, and manufacturing — added 9,000 jobs last month, while the services sector — transportation, education, healthcare, and hospitality — gained 146,000 jobs. Small businesses (1-49 employees) hired 11,000 new people in July; medium-sized businesses (50-499 employees) added 67,000 workers; and large businesses (over 500 employees) brought on 78,000 people.
This was in line with expectations and well above the estimated 100,000 new jobs needed to keep up with population growth.
Thursday’s report from the Labor Department showing further declines in initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits confirmed the health of the labor market.

This was expected as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted in his remarks following the board’s decision to cut the Fed Funds rate by one-quarter of one percent: “People who live and work in low-and middle-income communities tell us that many who have struggled to find work are now getting opportunities to add new and better chapters to their lives.”
Indeed those “new and better chapters” are characterized by remarkable growth in real (inflation-adjusted) wages, as noted by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA): “Wages in the United States increased 5.48 percent in June 2019 over the same month in the previous year.” According to the BEA, wage growth has been increasing since last December, staying at or above five percent on an annualized basis since February. Put another way, a worker earning $20 an hour a year ago is now making $21 an hour. In addition, he is keeping most of it in his pocket as inflation remains benign, at well below two percent.
Parsing the BEA report reveals another bright spot: Based on slightly different metrics, the number of employed workers increased by 247,000 last month, 91,000 higher than ADP’s report. Further the number employed full-time increased by 453,000 last month, while the number of part-time workers fell by 174,000. This confirms that not only are there more full-time workers, many part-time workers are being promoted to full-time status.
All of which continues to be reflected in healthy consumer confidence, as reported by the University of Michigan’s index. It moved higher in July to 98.4 from July 2018’s 97.9, while its Index of Consumer Expectations jumped by 3.2 percent, from 87.3 in July a year ago to 90.1. Said Michigan’s chief economist Richard Curtin: “Consumer sentiment remained … at quite favorable levels since the start of 2017.”

More at: https://www.thenewamerican.com/econo...of-u-s-economy

[Swordsmyth]

Wow. Go Wilburine! U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has slapped a whopping $4.4 billion countervailing duty on Chinese cabinet manufacturers. The rate of manufacturing subsidy identified within the ‘wood cabinet‘ study shows a massive 229% subsidy rate via discounted land, free lumber, electricity, raw materials, direct grants from government and discounted loans from Chinese banks to enhance export incentives.

The current study and duty only applies to wood cabinets and vanities, but if you ever wondered how come Chinese furniture is so cheap, well, it’s not a stretch to consider those same subsidy rates likely apply to their household furniture and wood products.

(Bloomberg) Add $4.4 billion in imported cabinets to the long list of Chinese goods slapped with U.S. levies in the escalating trade dispute between Washington and Beijing.
The Commerce Department said Tuesday it will ask the U.S. Customs and Border Protection to collect cash deposits from importers of the wooden cabinets and vanities from China based on subsidy rates of as much as 229%. Commerce issued a preliminary determination in response to a petition filed earlier this year by the American Kitchen Cabinet Alliance, alleging at least $2 billion in harm from the Chinese shipments.

The petition alleged dumping margins of more than 200%. Tim Brightbill, a trade lawyer from Wiley Rein LLP in Washington representing the industry, said in March that Chinese exporters get double-digit subsidy margins based on the number of programs supporting their domestic industry, including discounted land, electricity, raw materials, grants, discounted loans and export incentives.
“Today’s determination gives the American kitchen cabinet industry the hope it needs in our fight against China’s unfair trade practices,” Stephen Wellborn, director of product and research development at U.S. manufacturer Wellborn Cabinet and a member of the American alliance, said in an emailed statement. (more)

That $4.4 billion is a pretty hefty duty within a relatively small manufacturing sector. Can you imagine if anyone has filed a trade/manufacturing complaint against the much larger ‘wood furniture’ and household goods? Jumpin’ ju-ju bones.
In related news a lot more exporters operating manufacturing in China are starting to see the writing on their noses, realizing that Trump tariffs are only going to get worse, and are making plans to get the heck out of China, ASAP.

(CMP) Traditional export manufacturers in China’s Pearl and Yangtze River Delta regions already struggling under the weight of existing tariffs levied by the Trump administration expect the new tariffs on US$300 billion of Chinese imports to cause their businesses to shrink, force them to lay off workers, and for some, speed up relocation plans. (more)

Think of China like a big lake filled with U.S. dollars and economic value; the result of our purchases of their products. Through his ASEAN discussions with Vietnam, S Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, Japan, et al, President Trump has stealthily built a thin levy, an ASEAN dam of sorts, that will direct the China lake of economic value into Southeast Asia.

At any given moment Trump can blow that dam by triggering bigger tariffs. The exodus will benefit those who partnered with Trump. Vietnam’s economy has jumped over eight percent so far this year…. almost exclusively as a result of companies leaving China.
China has no substantive tools in their economic armory to defend against President Trump in a one-on-one battle. And Trump keeps landing body blows, the latest was the seizure of all Venezuelan assets. The number one investor in Venezuela is China (by a mile). China owns 49% of PDVSA Venezuela’s state owned oil company as an example.
The labeling of China as a currency manipulator opens the door to even more sanctions, and Beijing has no measurable way to respond. Beijing can threaten other trade partners, but more than China everyone wants access to the U.S. market; so no-one wants to become a target for Trump by standing near Xi Jinping or engaging in transnational shipping.


More at: https://theconservativetreehouse.com...ese-companies/

[Swordsmyth]

As if China did not have its hands full with a trade war, a plunging yuan and growing civil unrest in Hong Kong, which is fast becoming the potential epicenter for the next global crisis (and which Steve "The Big Short" Eisman thinks is the next black swan), it now also has deflation to worry about at a time when its ability to boost liquidity in the system is severely limited... or maybe it's surging inflation.

On Friday, China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that Producer Price Index, i.e. factory prices, fell 0.3% in July from a year ago, missing the modest 0.1% decline expected by analysts. This was the first annual decline in China's PPI in three years - since August 2016 - and just like back then, was largely the result of tumbling commodity prices which in turn depressed both manufacturing and raw material goods prices. And with oil sliding, and iron ore especially plunging, not to mention the whole trade war thing, it does not seems like a rebound here is imminent at all.
Worse, since PPI is closely linked to corporate profitability, the decline suggests that China is badly lagging in the credit impulse arena despite having started off 2019 with a bang and some of the biggest increases in Total Social Financing on record.
So what's the big deal: China has always been able to boost inflation, all it had to do was turn on the credit spigot and inject a few trillion in new bank and shadow loans into the economy.
Well, maybe in the past this was the case, but this time it will have a big headache, because even as PPI declined for the first time in three years, consumer prices jumped 2.8%, and coming in hotter than the 2.7% expected. This was tied for the highest annual headline inflation since February 2018, and before that one would have to go all the way to 2013 to find a hotter CPI print.

A continuation of recent trends, the bulk of the inflation was the result of sharply higher food prices, which surged 9.1% Y/Y as China continues to battle the rapid spread of "pig ebola" which some expect will eradicate half of China's entire pig population, leading to even higher prices.
Sure enough, pork prices soared 27% in July from a year ago, the highest in three years, but that wasn't even the worst of it: the prices of fresh fruit soared by 39%, the highest since 2006!



This combination of lower factory gate prices and soaring consumer prices is, needless to say, the worst possible outcome for Beijing, whose firepower to stimulate the economy using conventional means is severely limited; that this comes at a time when China is caught in an ever escalating trade war with the US certainly doesn't help.

Who knows: a few more downward nudges to the Chinese economy, and Trump may win the trade war against Beijing well before the 2020 presidential election.

More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...nflation-soars

[Swordsmyth]

"We're not going to be doing business with Huawei," President Donald Trump told reporters on Friday, according to Bloomberg.
Trump's announcement will prohibit US agencies and companies from buying Huawei telecoms products, unless the US and China can come to an agreement over trade. Trump said "China wants to do something, but I'm not doing anything yet. 25 years of abuse — I'm not ready so fast."
Trump's statement comes amid China's refusal to buy US agricultural goods — a move that's said to be in retaliation of Trump's tariffs on imports from China.
The US is also reportedly delaying US companies from doing business with Huawei, according to a Bloomberg report.

More at: https://news.yahoo.com/trump-announc...145152721.html

[Swordsmyth]

Jeffrey Peterson says in a twitter thread that he watches Asian news feeds and what comes out in them is the shock and confusion of the Chinese that a President is standing up to them and looking out for America for once.

[Swordsmyth]

laptop maker Inventec Corp. said it will to shift production of notebooks for the U.S. market out of China within months, adding to the tech industry’s exodus as the world’s two largest economies escalate their trade war.Inventec plans to move its entire American-bound laptop operation to its home base of Taiwan within two to three months, President Maurice Wu said on a post-earnings call Tuesday. Wu’s company assembles Apple Inc.’s AirPods and produces notebook computers for HP, which accounts for an estimated third of its revenue.
Underscoring the difficulty of making such long-term production decisions, President Donald Trump said just hours later that the U.S. would push back implementation of tariffs on Chinese-made laptop and other products to December from September. But tech companies aren’t waiting for a trade resolution. From Inventec to Apple-assembler Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Taiwanese companies that make most of the world’s electronics are reconsidering their reliance on the world’s No. 2 economy as Washington-Beijing tensions simmer.
“The trade war is very painful for us,” Wu said, concluding a call during which executives shared how production shifts have hurt the company’s efficiency and margins.
Rising tariffs on Chinese-made products threaten to wipe out their margins and up-end a well-oiled, decades-old supply chain. Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc., Sony Corp. and Nintendo Co. are said to be among those now weighing their options away from the line of fire, such as Southeast Asia and India. Alphabet Inc.’s Google has already shifted much of its production of U.S.-bound motherboards to Taiwan, Bloomberg News has reported.
Inventec’s shift marks one of the most dramatic relocations since Trump announced his decision to slap 10% tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese imports -- including consumer gadgets from smartphones to notebooks -- originally slated for next month. Spurred on by clients, which include household names like Dell Technologies Inc. and Nintendo, many Taiwanese contract manufacturers are now drawing up contingency plans, shifting select assembly operations or exploring alternative venues.

More at: https://news.yahoo.com/very-painful-...093211924.html

[Swordsmyth]

[CaptainAmerica]

I already have their shotguns.

keep your 100 yard inaccuracy. Ill keep my 600-800 yard m1a scout squad by sprinfield armory. China garbage .

[fedupinmo]

keep your 100 yard inaccuracy. Ill keep my 600-800 yard m1a scout squad by sprinfield armory. China garbage .

Yes, the Type 59 is quite inaccurate at 100 yards.
That reminds me... I forgot one.



BTW the AR-10 is much more accurate than the M1A, is more modular and has many more scope mounting choices. You can also almost buy two of them before you can get your M1A updated with the proper mil-spec M14 parts.

Here's another Chinese I should have bought when I had the chance:

[devil21]

A local metal supplier quoted me DOUBLE the price for the exact same raw stainless steel products (stainless angle) that they charged back in November. I asked why the double price? Answer was "Tariffs, sorry".

But no, "tariffs" aren't passed on to the end buyer, right Donald?

I'm sure most would unquestioningly pay that doubled price but when I called them out for doubling it, when metal tariffs are only a ~15% increase, they lowered the price to around that 15% increase. I didn't bother to ask if the steel was actually sourced from outside the US in the first place. So what I saw was a tariff presumably being passed on to me and attempted price gouging on top of it.

[Swordsmyth]

A local metal supplier quoted me DOUBLE the price for the exact same raw stainless steel products (stainless angle) that they charged back in November. I asked why the double price? Answer was "Tariffs, sorry".

But no, "tariffs" aren't passed on to the end buyer, right Donald?

I'm sure most would unquestioningly pay that doubled price but when I called them out for doubling it, when metal tariffs are only a ~15% increase, they lowered the price to around that 15% increase. I didn't bother to ask if the steel was actually sourced from outside the US in the first place. So what I saw was a tariff presumably being passed on to me and attempted price gouging on top of it.

You got conned. (why doesn't that surprise me?)

US Import and Export prices surprisingly rose MoM (Imports +0.2% vs -0.1% exp and Exports +0.2% vs -0.1% exp), but, both import and export prices have deflated YoY for three straight months...



More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...straight-month

I thought tariffs were going to kill us all with rising prices?

[phill4paul]

You got conned. (why doesn't that surprise me?)

No $#@!. So because a local retailer told him the price was doubled devil21 assumes it's tariffs. Then the supplier comes down 85% on his price and devil21 thinks he's a shrewd negotiator. $#@!! Didn't ever occur to him that if the tariffs really hit that hard they would be taking a loss with an 85% markdown. I'd have told 'em to $#@! off and found another supplier.

[Swordsmyth]

No $#@!. So because a local retailer told him the price was doubled devil21 assumes it's tariffs. Then the supplier comes down 85% on his price and devil21 thinks he's a shrewd negotiator. $#@!! Didn't ever occur to him that if the tariffs really hit that hard they would be taking a loss with an 85% markdown. I'd have told 'em to $#@! off and found another supplier.

And he is SO sure that the second price is because of the tariffs because ORANGE MAN BAD.

It never occurred to him that if his supplier lied the first time he is probably lying the second time.

It's a very old game to see how far you can push someone and then "back down" if they resist. 2 steps forward, 1 step back. It leaves the mark thinking he won.

[phill4paul]

And he is SO sure that the second price is because of the tariffs because ORANGE MAN BAD.

It never occurred to him that if his supplier lied the first time he is probably lying the second time.

It's a very old game to see how far you can push someone and then "back down" if they resist. 2 steps forward, 1 step back. It leaves the mark thinking he won.

Hey, he got 85% off the asking price and walked away believing he was a shrewd negotiator. Win/win.

[devil21]

@Swordsmyth @phill4paul
I'm just playing Donald's (and yours) perception game of tariffs. I've said many times on RPF that I have yet to find much, if any, real evidence of tariffs being imposed, in the form of legal executive orders or otherwise. Hence my use of "tariffs". My hypothesis in the above post was that a tariff of 15% had raised the raw price but the seller was gouging on top of it (thanks Donald, MAGA by giving retailers an excuse to gouge the average person?)

That seems like a reasonable conclusion. But by both of your conclusions, tariffs are having no price impact and only grant retailers the ability to price gouge under an official story, courtesy of Donald. Sounds like a win for the little guy Fortunately I knew that the price shouldn't be any higher than 15% if there was indeed a higher raw price passed on to the seller. I don't know how many others weren't aware and paid the price gouge cost. Tariffs or not, higher prices is obviously the impact.

[specsaregood]

No $#@!. So because a local retailer told him the price was doubled devil21 assumes it's tariffs. Then the supplier comes down 85% on his price and devil21 thinks he's a shrewd negotiator. $#@!! Didn't ever occur to him that if the tariffs really hit that hard they would be taking a loss with an 85% markdown. I'd have told 'em to $#@! off and found another supplier.

FWIW, Up until Aug 1st, Iron Ore prices had just about doubled in the past year. Its dropped significantly in the past couple weeks; but that price change in the iron ore would definitely have affected steel prices (independent of tariffs).
https://www.marketindex.com.au/iron-ore

[devil21]

FWIW, Up until Aug 1st, Iron Ore prices had just about doubled in the past year. Its dropped significantly in the past couple weeks; but that price change in the iron ore would definitely have affected steel prices (independent of tariffs).
https://www.marketindex.com.au/iron-ore

Thanks. That has been my ongoing hypothesis regarding "tariffs". They're a cover story for dollar devaluation that leads to higher domestic prices of materials and finished goods. If any retailers decide to further price gouge that's an extra kick in the gut on top of being lied to about why prices are rising.

[specsaregood]

Thanks. That has been my ongoing hypothesis regarding "tariffs". They're a cover story for dollar devaluation that leads to higher domestic prices of materials and finished goods. If any retailers decide to further price gouge that's an extra kick in the gut on top of being lied to about why prices are rising.

It was more than just the dollar and tariffs. Iron Ore was specifically hit hard because production was shutdown because of the big dam disaster in Brazil and a number of the biggest mines have been taken offline during the year for safety inspections.

[devil21]

It was more than just the dollar and tariffs. Iron Ore was specifically hit hard because production was shutdown because of the big dam disaster in Brazil and a number of the biggest mines have been taken offline during the year for safety inspections.

Good info, thanks. I don't feel "conned" at all, though I'm sure SS thinks he knows a con when he sees one. Birds of a feather and all.

[Swordsmyth]

Home Depot’s suppliers are trying to head off some of the increased costs from rising tariffs by moving at least some of their production out of China, executives told investors Tuesday.
“I’m not aware of a single supplier who was not moving some form of manufacturing outside of China,” said Ted Decker, executive vice president of merchandising. “So we have suppliers moving production to Taiwan, to Vietnam, to Thailand, Indonesia and even back into the United States.”

More at: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/20/home...-of-china.html

[Swordsmyth]

Since the trade war began last March, the renminbi has weakened 13% against the U.S. dollar, neutralizing some of the tariffs imposed by the U.S. on imports from China.

More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...-slows-46-june


They also cut prices and increased subsidies.

[phill4paul]

STILL not out tariffed.