Boom. You can't out tariff us. Period. This Trump knows.

[The Rebel Poet]

I was wondering when you'd start floating Ivanka or some other Trump to replace Donald.

Haven't we had our fill of "royal" American political dynasties yet?

This × 1000.

[Swordsmyth]

I was wondering when you'd start floating Ivanka or some other Trump to replace Donald.

Haven't we had our fill of "royal" American political dynasties yet?

I've mentioned Don Jr. as a possibility many times before but I'm not committed to him until I see who else runs and what his platform is.

His family connections are entirely irrelevant, what matters is his policies.

[Swordsmyth]

President Donald Trump’s $28 billion farm bailout may be paying many growers more than the trade war with China has cost them.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s calculations overshot the impact of the trade conflict on American soybean prices, according to six academic studies, a conclusion that is likely to add to criticism that the bailout has generated distortions and inequalities in the farm economy.
“It’s clear that the payment rates overstated the damage suffered by soybean growers,” said Joseph Glauber, the USDA’s former chief economist who published a review of the research in late November. “Based on what the studies show, the damages were about half that.”
The academic research has focused on soybeans in part because the crop has been the most visible target of Chinese retaliation and overall received the most trade aid. But the method the department used to calculate trade losses also likely overstates the conflict’s financial impact on most other farm products, though for a few commodities it may understate the true impact, Glauber, now a senior fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, said in an interview.
The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean a bonanza for American farmers, who are being financially squeezed on other fronts, including a global commodity glut that is depressing prices and a year of wild weather that is damaging crop yields.

More at: https://news.yahoo.com/trump-28-bill...090000447.html

[TheCount]

President Donald Trump’s $28 billion farm bailout may be paying many growers more than the trade war with China has cost them.

Yay?

[Swordsmyth]

The US trade deficit shrank to its smallest since June 2018 in October, as trade with China extended its slide with goods imports from the nation dropping to a fresh three-year low.
The overall U.S. deficit in goods and services trade narrowed to $47.2 billion in October (less then the $48.5bn expected)...



Merchandise imports from China declined 4.8% from the prior month to $35.3 billion...



More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...lest-16-months

[The Rebel Poet]

The US trade deficit shrank to its smallest since June 2018 in October, as trade with China extended its slide with goods imports from the nation dropping to a fresh three-year low.
The overall U.S. deficit in goods and services trade narrowed to $47.2 billion in October (less then the $48.5bn expected)...



Merchandise imports from China declined 4.8% from the prior month to $35.3 billion...



More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...lest-16-months

Why does this matter?

[acptulsa]

Why does this matter?

It's from zerohedge and it has charts.

You know how he and Zippy are. If you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, baffle 'em with bullcharts.

[Swordsmyth]

In a positive gesture, China said on Friday that it will waive import tariffs for some soybeans and pork shipments from the United States, as the two sides try to thrash out a broader agreement to defuse their protracted trade war.

“The goal (of this move) is to expand purchases and reassure the United States,” said a Chinese source who advises Beijing on the trade talks.
“It should be interpreted as a positive signal. Despite the many political difficulties the two sides face, economic and trade cooperation and moves to stop the escalation of the trade war are in the interest of both parties.”


U.S. pork exports to China and Hong Kong are already up 47% in volume terms from January to September, even with high duties in place.
A second adviser to the Chinese government said exemptions on the products suited Beijing, as they helped meet market demand for such goods while reducing the trade surplus with the United States.
“We might as well buy soybeans from the U.S. rather than from Brazil. Brazil is actually selling us what was purchased from the United States and they even hiked the prices up before selling to us. In that case, we’d better just buy from the United States,” she said.

More at: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/06/chin...l-gesture.html

[Swordsmyth]

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status...64210947559425

[dannno]

[XNavyNuke]

Orange Man continues to destroy the world economy. Argentina's leftist government, China's go-to source, is raising the evil tariffs of agricultural commodity exports. Will this chaos never cease?

http://www.feedandgrain.com/blog/u.s...-on-trade-news

Argentina's new left-wing government ramped up export taxes on grains and soybeans and their derivatives on Saturday in a widely anticipated move.

The new law establishes a 12% duty for corn, wheat, sorghum, sunseeds and barley.

The export tariff on soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil is increased to 30%.

Argentina is the largest exporter of soybean meal and soybean oil.

Argentina is the third largest exporter of corn.

XNN

[Swordsmyth]

China on Thursday unveiled a new list of import tariff exemptions for six chemical and oil products from the United States, days after the world's two largest economies announced a Phase 1 trade deal.The exemptions will be for one year from Dec. 26, the Finance Ministry said, without providing a value for the imports excluded from duties.
Duties already imposed on U.S. products would not be refunded, the ministry added.
The tariff waivers will apply to four chemical products, such as metallocene high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and a special grade of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE), and refined oil products that include white oil and food-grade petroleum wax.


China waived import tariffs for some soybeans and pork shipments from the United States on Dec. 6, before the two sides reached a Phase 1 trade deal to cancel tariffs that were planned to take effect on Dec. 15.
China said it will continue to work on the product exemptions and release the second batch of waivers at an appropriate time.

More at: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china...093956310.html

[Swordsmyth]

China will lower tariffs on products ranging from frozen pork and avocado to some type of semiconductors next year, the finance ministry said, as Beijing looks to boost imports amid a slowing economy and a trade war with the United States. Next year, China will implement temporary import tariffs, which are lower than the most-favored-nation tariffs, on over 850 products, said the finance ministry. That compared with 706 products that were taxed at temporary rates in 2019.


The tariff rate for frozen pork will be cut to 8% from the most-favored-nation duty of 12%, while the rate for frozen avocado will be reduced to 7% from the most-favored-nation duty of 30%, said the ministry in a statement on its website.
Tariffs for some asthma and diabetes medications will be set at zero, said the ministry, while duties on some wood and paper products will be lowered too.
Import tariffs on multi-component semiconductors will be cut to zero.
China will also further lower most-favored-nation import tariffs on some information technology products from July 1, said the ministry.

More at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN1YR02Z

[Swordsmyth]

One year after China did not import even one ounce of US soybeans as the trade feud was escalating at the end of 2018, in November 2019, China - which has found itself roiled by soaring food prices - saw its imports of US soybeans surge to the highest in 20 months after more American cargoes cleared customs ahead of the alleged signing of the Phase One trade deal in January.
According to data from China's Customs Administration, China’s inbound shipments from the U.S. more than doubled to 2.6 million tons, the highest since March 2018, and up from about 1.1 million tons in October. As noted above, in November of 2018 - when the trade war between the two nations was escalating rapidly - China imported no U.S. soybeans.

As Bloomberg notes, citing USDA data, China’s total commitments in the current marketing year hit 10.5 million tons, compared with just 2 million tons the previous year.


More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...ation-explodes

[Swordsmyth]

According to advance good trade balance data from the Census Bureau, November saw the smallest goods trade deficit since before President Trump was elected.



The $63.2 billion deficit was considerably smaller than the $68.7 billion expected:

• Imports fell 1.3% in Nov. to $199.568b from $202.249b in Oct.
  
• Exports rose 0.7% in Nov. to $136.375b from $135.450b in Oct.

Auto exports rose 3.4%.

More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...-trump-elected

[Swordsmyth]

China's agriculture ministry said Monday that it had approved two new genetically modified crops for import from the U.S., reported Reuters.
The announcement comes ahead of a potential Phase 1 trade deal signing between Beijing and Washington next month. The U.S. has long demanded that China imports more genetically modified crops.
According to Reuters, the new crops approved for import were Corteva AgriScience's DAS-81419-2 soybean and 55-1 papaya, developed by the USDA and Hawaii University.
"This further expands channels for imports of U.S. agricultural products, and helps pave the way for buying more U.S. soybeans," said Li Qiang, chief analyst with Shanghai J.C. Intelligence Co. Ltd.

Reuters also said China renewed import licenses for ten other genetically modified crops, including BASF developed T25 corn, A5547-127 soybean, T45 canola, Oxy-235 canola, and Ms8Rf3 canola.
Bayer-owned Monsanto Far East Ltd's MON89788 soybean, 15985 cotton, and H7-1 beet were also reapproved for import, along with DuPont subsidiary Pioneer's 305423 soybean and 305423×GTS40-3-2 soybean.
With the signing of the Phase 1 trade deal expected next month, China's Customs Administration reported last week that inbound agriculture shipments from the U.S. more than doubled to 2.6 million tons, the highest since March 2018, and up from about 1.1 million tons in October.


More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/commoditie...ops-us-imports

[devil21]

Soybeanz iz serial business y'all. Trade dealz being had cuz soybeanz.

I do look forward to the pics of 5'1 chinese men with man boobs in a few years. And won't it be fun when all American oil is sent to China while we putter around in automonous electric cars with 12 mile ranges? 6 if you're on a list.

[Swordsmyth]

The trade deficit fell sharply in November for the second month in a row and sank to the lowest level in three years, reflecting a decline in Chinese imports and the reemergence of the U.S. as an energy superpower.
The trade gap dropped 8.2% to $43.1 billion in November, the government said Tuesday, basically matching the MarketWatch forecast. It’s the smallest deficit since October 2016.
Most of the decline recently has been tied to a shrinking deficit with China, whose imports have fallen in the face off stiff U.S. tariffs. Surging U.S. oil exports were another contributor.
If the gap remains around the same size in December, the U.S. could post the first annual decline in its trade deficit in 2019 in six years.

More at: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...war-2020-01-07

[Swordsmyth]

China customs vice minister Zou Zhiwu said Tuesday that China's imports from the United States rebounded in November and December, and that positive U.S.-China trade sentiment has boosted companies' confidence in December.Zou added that Chinese agricultural imports from the United States were at 14.1 billion yuan ($2 billion) in December, and that soybean, pork imports rebounded significantly in the month.

More at: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china...030434399.html

[Swordsmyth]

“Conventional economic models ignore how Trump’s tariffs boost investment and national security,” wrote Peter Navarro, the President’s Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy.
His Jan 13th WSJ opinion piece, like most things Navarro publishes, provide real insight into Trump policy/thinking. But Navarro is an annoying hothead, so most people dismiss him.
I’ve condensed his piece: “Critics of Trump’s transformational trade policies continue to insist that the tariffs are hindering rather than helping the boom. Yet with each new tariff the economy remains robust, wages continue to rise, and inflation stays muted (while the economic losses for China continue to grow).

Tariffs have spurred growth, not hampered it. Why have the gloom-and-doom forecasters been so wrong? The errors come from flaws in traditional economic models. Anti-tariff analysts typically rely on static "partial equilibrium" models. While a tariff on steel might boost employment in that industry, for example, the price of steel would rise for car makers downstream, which would then suffer lower production and fewer jobs.
Each tariff shrinks total employment, depresses wages, and increases inflation—or at least that’s how these forecasts typically go. Yet what is missing from these forecasts is a 'general equilibrium' analysis of tariffs, which would assess the whole economy, with a concomitant 'dynamic scoring' of their effects, to account for the new investment tariffs induce. Over time this tariff-induced investment, along with lower taxes and sensible deregulation, will boost growth and job creation. Higher domestic production will also help offset any price hikes from the tariffs.


Trump’s imposition of actual tariffs has made the threat of tariffs more credible, and a variety of tariff threats have borne robust results. In addition to missing the upside of supporting American industries, critics overlook the ways the US has suffered under open trade. Expanded trade with China in the 2000s contributed to the loss of tens of thousands of American factories and millions of manufacturing jobs and the hollowing out of many communities. What followed was an associated rise in the rates of divorce, drug addiction, crime, depression and death, particularly among blue-collar men no longer able to support their families at a decent wage.
The national-security externalities associated with Trump trade policy may be even more consequential. A case in point is the tariffs being used as leverage to defend America’s technological crown jewels from being forcibly transferred to Chinese companies—from artificial intelligence, robotics and autonomous vehicles to quantum computing and blockchain. These industries comprise the core of the next generation of weapons systems needed to repel threats from rivals like China, Russia and Iran.
One must ask the anti-tariff forecasters: Where are the benefits of a freer and more secure American homeland counted in your models? An honest, modern analysis of the Trump tariffs would acknowledge the widespread market distortions that currently disadvantage American workers, parse the complex ways tariffs affect trade partners’ behavior, appropriately discount short-term price impacts, and dynamically score the many long-term positive effects.


https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...ot-hampered-it

[Swordsmyth]

U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday signed a proclamation increasing tariffs on derivative steel products by an additional 25 percent and boosting duties on derivative aluminum products by an additional 10 percent.Trump said Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and South Korea are exempt from the additional tariffs on derivative steel products, and Argentina, Australia, Canada and Mexico are exempt from the added duties on derivative aluminum articles.

More at: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump...021844176.html

[Swordsmyth]

Anxieties about the knock-on impact to the global economy from the coronavirus outbreak, which appears on track to shave whole percentage points off China's GDP, have pushed stock futures back into the red Thursday morning.

But during an interview with Maria Bartiromo that aired on Thursday, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross argued that the North American economy might benefit from the outbreak as companies "reevaluate their supply chains" to factor in emergent outbreak risk.


While Ross insisted that he didn't want to appear insensitive, it's pretty clear to him that the outbreak could help "accelerate the return of jobs to North America."

"First of all, every American's heart has to go out to the victims of the coronavirus. I don't want to talk about a victory lap over a very unfortunate very malignant disease. But the fact is, it does give business another thing to consider when they go through their review of their supply chain. On top of all the other things - you had SARS, you had the African swine virus there, now you have this - it's another risk factor that people need to take into account."
"I think it will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America, some to the US and some to Mexico as well," Ross said.
Watch the clip below:

Secretary Wilbur Ross says coronavirus will be good for [checks notes] American jobs: "I think it will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America." pic.twitter.com/Y4SbDIcTi4
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) January 30, 2020

Bartiromo conceded that Ross had made an interesting point.
"Ah, that's a good point," Bartiromo responds.


More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...s-back-america

[Swordsmyth]

China on Thursday announced that it will halve tariffs on hundreds of U.S. goods worth about $75 billion.
Retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. goods will be cut from 10% to 5%, and from 5% to 2.5% on others, according to a statement from China’s Ministry of Finance. The adjustments will take effect from 1:01 p.m on Feb. 14, it said, without specifying which time zone it was referring to.
The cuts apply to about $75 billion worth of imports from the U.S. that was slapped with tariffs on Sept. 1, 2019, according to a separate statement on the ministry’s website.
After the cut, duties on U.S. crude will be reduced to 2.5%, from 5%, and the tariff on soybeans will be trimmed by 2.5%.
The statement on the Ministry of Finance website said the move was made in order to “advance the healthy and stable development of China-U.S. trade.” A separate article on the website noted the cut in tariffs was timed in conjunction with a U.S. decision in January to halve tariffs on Feb. 14 for $120 billion of Chinese goods — from 15% to 7.5%.

More at: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/chin...-us-goods.html

[Swordsmyth]

The U.S. government on Friday said it would increase tariffs on aircraft imported from the European Union to 15% from 10%, ratcheting up pressure on Brussels in a nearly 16-year transatlantic dispute over aircraft subsidies.

The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office said it remained open to reaching a negotiated settlement with the EU on the issue, but could revise its actions if the EU imposed tariffs of its own in connection with a pair of disputes over the subsidies.
In a statement released late on Friday, USTR said it would make minor modifications to 25% tariffs imposed on cheese, wine and other non-aircraft products from the EU, including dropping prune juice from the list. It did not raise the tariff rates on those product, as it had suggested it might do in October.
The higher aircraft tariff will take effect March 18.

More at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN20900L

[Swordsmyth]

The Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) of China has approved the import of live chickens from the US after farmers across the country were ordered to cull tens of millions of chickens because of the Covid-19 outbreak.
The MOA had banned poultry meat imports from the US in 2015 due to avian influenza threats.
As a concession for the phase one trade deal, China had lifted poultry meat import bans and now has allowed the import of live chickens, reported the Financial Times.
Beijing allowing the MOA to approve the import of live chickens is mostly because the mass culling has led to a sharp increase in prices. At the moment, China isn't just facing a shortage of food, but also an economic crisis, and couple both of those together, the real threat of protests and riots in many cities, some larger than NYC, could be nearing.

"There is no question China's chicken population will fall sharply in the coming months," said Qiu Cong of Jinghai Poultry Industry Group. "The chicks are gone and farmers are struggling to make ends meet."
A report by Wang Zhongqiang, a former director at the China Animal Husbandry Association, and Ning Zhonghua, a professor at China Agricultural University, said farmers had culled upwards of 100 million young chickens since the virus broke out. Though the figure is approximately 1% of China's annual production of 9.3 billion chickens, it's currently having an impact on prices.

More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/af...ive-poultry-us

[Swordsmyth]

China will grant exemptions on retaliatory duties imposed against 696 U.S. products, the most substantial tariff relief to be offered so far, as Beijing seeks to fulfill commitments made in its interim trade deal with the United States. The announcement on Feb. 18 comes after the “phase one” trade deal between the two countries took effect on Feb. 14 and is the third round of tariff exemptions that China has offered on U.S. goods.

U.S. goods eligible for tariff exemptions include key agricultural and energy products such as pork, beef, soybeans, liquefied natural gas and crude oil, which were subject to extra tariffs imposed during the escalation of the bilateral trade dispute.


Other products subject to exemption on additional tariffs imposed include denatured ethanol and wheat, corn and sorghum. Some medical devices and metals including copper ore and concentrates, copper scrap, and aluminum scrap are also subject to exemptions.
Pharmaceutical products such as recombinant human insulin and some antibiotics are also among U.S. products eligible for tariff exemptions.

More at: https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-...s_3241666.html

[Swordsmyth]

China on Friday suspended more punitive tariffs on imports of U.S. industrial goods in response to a truce in its trade war with Washington that threatened global economic growth.Financial markets have welcomed announcements by both sides of reductions in penalties on each other’s goods, though they have yet to resolve much of the conflict that erupted in 2018 over Beijing’s technology ambitions and trade surplus.
Goods affected by the latest reduction include industrial components and medical and factory equipment, according to the Finance Ministry. It gave no details of the value of goods affected but said penalties were suspended for one year, effective Feb. 28.

More at: https://apnews.com/050e9d6229ca1d40ff48d62f01bc1d74

[XNavyNuke]

So much for the political commercials featuring farmers in front of their equipment being auctioned off.

U.S. farm exports to China hit new August record thanks to soybeans
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com...oybeans-braun/

U.S. agricultural exports to China had a sluggish start to 2020 relative to the lofty expectations set forth by the Phase 1 trade agreement, but the August value soared substantially over that of the prior months owing to strong soybean shipments.

U.S. cotton exports to China hit a seven-and-a-half-year high in August, while corn shipments to the Asian country reached an all-time record. But the combined export value of cotton and corn, the No. 2 and 3 items in August, was less than half that of soybeans, emphasizing the importance of the oilseed in the trade relationship.

XNN

[axiomata]

Harris was horrible in the debates. This was the only topic that she landed a few punches.

[XNavyNuke]

Only one day into the B-H Administration and already soybean futures are rising on the promise of great relations with China.

China’s soybean imports in 2021-22 likely to hit new high of 110 mil mt: Platts Analytics

China’s soybean imports in 2021-22 marketing year (October-September) is likely to exceed 110 million mt, hitting an all-time high, on sharper-than-expected hog and sow herd recovery from the African swine fever, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics.

Even for 2020-21 marketing year, China’s soybeans import is expected to eclipse the US Department of Agriculture’s forecast of 100 million mt, according to China-based analysts.

Pop's is going to make his friends in the futures markets VERY happy!

XNN