Democrats losing lead on Republicans in midterm election polls

[Swordsmyth]

With stocks at record highs and President Trump gloating at the "record strength" of the US economy, it appears confidence is coming back as sentiment among Republicans reached an all-time record high in the latest Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index.

That's quite a red wave...

The peak spread in confidence between Democrats and Republicans occurred in July 2004 (heading into George W Bush's 2nd term election)... President Trump is currently very close to that peak...

Additionally, Gallup reports forty-five percent of Americans now have a favorable view of the Republican Party, a nine-point gain from last September's 36%. It is the party's most positive image since it registered 47% in January 2011, shortly after taking control of the House in the 2010 midterm elections. Forty-four percent give the Democratic Party a favorable rating.



We note that Independents are well, independent, with sentiment soaring to its highest since Dec 2000...

As Bloomberg highlights, political independents have split from Democrats and grown more optimistic as the economy has forged ahead.


More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...rs-record-high

[Swordsmyth]

[Swordsmyth]

Democrats got a gut check with a new poll from Quinnipiac showing that their lead in the generic ballot had been sliced by half for the midterm elections.
“Blue wave” loses momentum
The Quinnipiac University poll found that Democrats had a generic ballot lead of 7 points, with 49 percent of Americans saying they’d vote for a Democrat while 42 percent said they’d vote for a Republican.
This lead represents half of the advantage the Democrats had in the same poll from September, when 52 percent of Americans said they’d vote for Democrats, while only 38 percent said they supported Republicans.

More at: https://www.theblaze.com/news/2018/1...term-elections

[r3volution 3.0]

Democrats got a gut check with a new poll from Quinnipiac showing that their lead in the generic ballot had been sliced by half for the midterm elections...The Quinnipiac University poll found that Democrats had a generic ballot lead of 7 points

That's quite misleading, not only because it's a single poll, but because the earlier version of that poll (showing Dems +14) was an extreme outlier.

The RCP average has had Dems +7-8 for the past 6 weeks. The current value is +7.4.

[Swordsmyth]

That's quite misleading, not only because it's a single poll, but because the earlier version of that poll (showing Dems +14) was an extreme outlier.

The RCP average has had Dems +7-8 for the past 6 weeks. The current value is +7.4.

If even a left leaning poll shows a dramatic swing away from the Demoncrats, that says something.

[Zippyjuan]

Based on most recent polls: US Senate: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...vote-6185.html



Current Senate:


Congressional polls:


Current House:

[r3volution 3.0]

If even a left leaning poll shows a dramatic swing away from the Demoncrats, that says something.

It says something, but not that the Dem lead has dropped by anything like half.

If I'd argued a month ago on the basis of this same poll that the Dems had a 14 point lead you'd have objected on the same grounds I am now.

[oyarde]

Dems have zero to offer . Zero . So you get to see if anything but the inner city welfare vote is interested in Zero . Pubs do not do themselves any favors by spending too much . It is easy to understand conservatism . Conserve .

[Swordsmyth]

It says something, but not that the Dem lead has dropped by anything like half.

If I'd argued a month ago on the basis of this same poll that the Dems had a 14 point lead you'd have objected on the same grounds I am now.

I didn't say it said they dropped by half but it might mean it dropped less or it might mean it dropped more but it does mean it is dropping.

[r3volution 3.0]

I didn't say it said they dropped by half

The Glenn Beck story you posted suggested that.

...they obviously chose to write about that particular poll because it showed by far the most dramatic drop.

but it might mean it dropped less or it might mean it dropped more but it does mean it is dropping.

The best indicator is the average of polls, which, as I said, has been pretty steady at 7-8 for 6 weeks.

I know you're eager to repeat the GOP media narrative about the Kavanaugh thing hurting Dems, but that isn't reflected in the data.

It might be in the future, but it isn't now.

[Zippyjuan]

Dems have zero to offer . Zero . So you get to see if anything but the inner city welfare vote is interested in Zero . Pubs do not do themselves any favors by spending too much . It is easy to understand conservatism . Conserve .

If we get conservatives in power, maybe we can get that spending down. Wait- it is still going up.

[oyarde]

If we get conservatives in power, maybe we can get that spending down. Wait- it is still going up.

A problem that should be taken seriously .

[eleganz]

That's quite misleading, not only because it's a single poll, but because the earlier version of that poll (showing Dems +14) was an extreme outlier.

The RCP average has had Dems +7-8 for the past 6 weeks. The current value is +7.4.

I don't think its a fluke, I believe a gallup poll today had GOP favorability up to 45 and Dems with no movement at 44.

Kavanaugh was the trigger.

[r3volution 3.0]

I don't think its a fluke, I believe a gallup poll today had GOP favorability up to 45 and Dems with no movement at 44.

Favorability polls are nice when you don't have election polls, but we do have election polls, showing basically no movement.

[eleganz]

Favorability polls are nice when you don't have election polls, but we do have election polls, showing basically no movement.

Election polls are all over the place and the reason why they different so much is because these pollsters think they can predict what a democratic surge looks like, those that predict a larger turnout will obviously have a bigger favor to the dems and vice versa.

Voter excitement very high and is now near leveled after Kavanaugh so it would be a mistake for them to poll giving surge advantage to the dems only.

[r3volution 3.0]

Election polls are all over the place and the reason why they different so much is because these pollsters think they can predict what a democratic surge looks like, those that predict a larger turnout will obviously have a bigger favor to the dems and vice versa.

Voter excitement very high and is now near leveled after Kavanaugh so it would be a mistake for them to poll giving surge advantage to the dems only.

Not really, apart from a brief tightening over the summer, the polls have been pretty consistently D +7-8 for many months.

[Swordsmyth]

A new round of Fox News battleground polls shows a Republican trend in the fight for the U.S. Senate. The GOP candidates are helped by increased interest in the election among Republicans and pro-Donald Trump sentiment.
There’s been an uptick in GOP interest in all five states surveyed. Compared to early September, the number of Republicans feeling “extremely” interested in the upcoming election is up by 2 points in Arizona, up by 9 points in Indiana, up 8 points in both Missouri and North Dakota, and up 11 points in Tennessee. In each state, Republicans are now just as likely as Democrats to say they are extremely interested -- erasing an edge Democrats had in several states last month.


Starting with Arizona, here are the state-by-state results:
Arizona
Democrat Kyrsten Sinema tops Republican Martha McSally by a 47-45 percent margin in the Senate race to fill the open seat of retiring Republican Sen. Jeff Flake. Last month, Sinema was up 47-44 percent (September 8-11).
Sinema is helped by strong backing among women (+9 points), voters under age 45 (+14) and Hispanics (+29). She also enjoys greater party loyalty, as 91 percent of Democrats back her vs. 83 percent of Republicans for McSally.
READ THE COMPLETE ARIZONA POLL RESULTS.
However, McSally’s overall support is stronger, with 83 percent of her backers saying they are certain to vote for her compared to 71 percent of Sinema’s.
Veterans prefer McSally, a retired Air Force pilot, by a 25-point margin. In addition, she leads among white voters (+5) and voters over age 45 (+4).
The two candidates are about equally liked. For Sinema, 48 percent have a favorable opinion vs. 41 percent unfavorable. For McSally, it’s 46-45 percent.
President Trump won Arizona by nearly four percentage points in 2016. That’s in line with his current job rating, as 51 percent of the state’s likely voters approve, while 47 percent disapprove.
Indiana
Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly tops Republican challenger Mike Braun by two points (43-41 percent), while Libertarian Lucy Brenton takes 6 percent. Eight percent are undecided.
That’s a reversal from early September, when Braun had a two-point edge (45-43 percent).


Men are more likely to back Braun by a 9-point margin, while women pick Donnelly by 11.
READ THE COMPLETE INDIANA POLL RESULTS.
Voters with a college degree support Donnelly by 10 points, while those without a degree go for Braun by 3 points.
Strength of support is about equal: 77 percent of Braun’s backers say they are certain to vote for him. It’s 74 percent for Donnelly.
If Donnelly votes against Kavanaugh, 30 percent say it would make them more likely to vote for him, 32 percent say less likely, and 34 percent say no difference.
The Democrat announced he would vote against Kavanaugh on September 28, after Senate Judiciary Committee hearings that included testimony by Christine Blasey Ford on her sexual assault allegations against Kavanaugh.
While Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 19 points in Indiana, today Hoosier voters approve of his job performance by just 6: 52 percent approve, while 46 percent disapprove.
Missouri
The Missouri Senate race is all tied up at 43 percent apiece for incumbent Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill and Republican challenger Josh Hawley, while other candidates garner 8 percent and six percent are undecided. Three weeks ago, McCaskill was up 44-41 percent (September 8-11).


The survey also finds the race tied, 46-46 percent, in a hypothetical two-way matchup.
READ THE COMPLETE MISSOURI POLL RESULTS.
Suburban women (+15 points) and voters under age 45 (+6) are more likely to back McCaskill.
The gender gap is somewhat diminished, as McCaskill’s advantage among women stands at 4 points, down from 9 points last month.
Hawley has the edge among men (+5 points) and rural voters (+22).
About three-quarters of both McCaskill’s (75 percent) and Hawley’s supporters (74 percent) feel certain they will back their candidate.
McCaskill announced she would vote against Kavanaugh September 19, a week before Kavanaugh and Ford testified.
Among the 28 percent of voters who say they could still switch candidates, almost twice as many say McCaskill voting against Kavanaugh’s confirmation would make them less inclined to back her.
In general, voters have mixed views of both McCaskill (48 favorable vs. 48 unfavorable) and Hawley (47-45 percent).
The president remains popular in the Show-Me State: a majority of 54 percent approves of the job Trump is doing, while 45 percent disapprove. He won Missouri by 19 points.
North Dakota
Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats this year, along with Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill and Indiana Sen. Joe Donnelly.
The survey shows Heitkamp may be in the most difficult position, as Republican challenger Kevin Cramer now leads by 12 points (53-41 percent). Last month, he was up by four (48-44 percent).
READ THE COMPLETE NORTH DAKOTA POLL RESULTS.


The shift comes mainly from declines in support for Heitkamp among women (was up by 7 points, now trails by 4), and voters with a college degree (was up by 7, now trails by 8).
More Democrats back Heitkamp (94 percent) than Republicans back Cramer (87 percent), but in a state so red that Trump won by nearly 40 points, that isn’t enough.
Strength of support is also with Cramer. Nearly 9 in 10 (87 percent) of his supporters are sure of their vote, compared to 8 in 10 Heitkamp backers (79 percent).
Heitkamp remains undecided on Kavanaugh. If she votes against his confirmation, twice as many say they would be less likely (34 percent) rather than more likely (17 percent) to vote for her.
By a 64-35 percent margin, likely voters approve of the president. That 29-point spread comes close to matching his 36-point margin of victory in 2016.
Meanwhile, Republican Kelly Armstrong (51 percent) leads Democrat Mac Schneider (34 percent) by 17 points for the state’s only House seat, which Cramer vacated to run for Senate.
Tennessee
The president held a rally Monday in Johnson City, Tennessee. He won the state by 26 points, and voters there still love him. Likely voters in the Volunteer State approve of Trump’s job performance by 60-39 percent.
READ THE COMPLETE TENNESSEE POLL RESULTS
That helps put Republican Marsha Blackburn ahead of Democrat Phil Bredesen by a 48-43 percent margin. Blackburn’s 5-point advantage is inside the poll’s margin of error.
Last month, she had a 3-point edge over Bredesen. They are competing for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Bob Corker.
Women go for Bredesen by 5 points, while men are more likely to pick Blackburn by 17. Among white men, her lead grows to 30 points.
Bredesen stays in the game by garnering greater party loyalty (92 percent of Democrats back him compared to 82 percent of GOP for her), while also taking 10 percent of Republicans.
About the same share of Bredesen (79 percent certain) and Blackburn (77 percent) supporters say they are certain to vote for them.
Plus, roughly equal numbers have a positive view of both Blackburn (50 favorable vs. 41 unfavorable) and Bredesen (51-39 percent), who served as Tennessee’s governor from 2003 to 2011.
Governor Pollpourri
In the Arizona governor’s race, Republican incumbent Doug Ducey leads: 55 percent vs. 37 percent for Democrat David Garcia. One in five of Sinema’s supporters (20 percent) split their ballot and back the Republican, Ducey, for governor.
By a 17-point margin, Tennessee likely voters back Republican Bill Lee (53 percent) over Democrat Karl Dean (36 percent) in the state’s gubernatorial race. Fourteen percent of those backing Bredesen in the Senate race defect to support Lee, the Republican, for governor.






The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted September 29-October 2, 2018 by telephone (landline and cellphone) with live interviewers among likely voters in Arizona (716), Indiana (695), Missouri (683), North Dakota (704) and Tennessee (666). Results based on the full sample in each state have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Registered voters were randomly selected from a statewide voter file (except in ND where all eligible voters were included), and respondents answered screening questions about their likelihood to vote in the November elections.

More at: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...p-senate-races

[dannno]

Election polls are all over the place and the reason why they different so much is because these pollsters think they can predict what a democratic surge looks like, those that predict a larger turnout will obviously have a bigger favor to the dems and vice versa.

Voter excitement very high and is now near leveled after Kavanaugh so it would be a mistake for them to poll giving surge advantage to the dems only.

LOL, ya, this is exactly what happened when Trump got elected - me and others here were literally screaming from the rooftops that the Democrat turnout was being over-represented in the polls and they were taking raw polling data that showed Trump was doing well and making it look like the dems were going to do better because they would have higher turnout and some retards here didn't listen, and they still won't admit they were wrong.

[Swordsmyth]

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, shifted three Senate races in favor of Republicans as well as one Senate race toward Democrats less than five weeks out from the midterm elections.
Cook moved Senate races in Montana, Nebraska and New Jersey all in favor of Republicans. Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) faces one of the most competitive race this cycle, which was shifted from lean Democrat to toss-up. Tester is running against state auditor Matt Rosendale (R) in a state where President Trump won by double-digits in 2016.
Jennifer Duffy, a Senate race analyst at Cook Political Report, said that Tester initially looked likely to sail to reelection with a comfortable lead in polling and Rosendale facing a crowded primary. Duffy noted that the fight over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh's nomination is energizing the GOP base, though she still gives Tester a slight advantage in the toss-up race.
Tester has said he won't vote to confirm Kavanaugh, who faces sexual assault allegations that have threatened to derail his nomination. Kavanaugh has vehemently denied all allegations.

Cook also moved Sen. Bob Menendez’s (D-N.J.) race from likely Democrat to lean Democrat and Sen. Deb Fischer’s (R-Neb.) race from likely Republican to solid Republican.

The election handicapper also shifted Ohio’s Senate race toward Democrats. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) has consistently lead Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Ohio) by double-digit margins, despite Trump winning the state by 8 points in 2016. Cook moves the race from lean Democrat to likely Democrat.

More at: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...ds-republicans

[Swordsmyth]

As the vicious battle over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation approaches its end, and with just weeks before the midterms, President Trump’s approval numbers are looking up.
According to the latest results from Rasmussen’s tracking poll of likely voters, Trump has just hit the 50% mark. “The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance,” Rasmussen reports. “Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove.”

More at: https://truepundit.com/trumps-approv...on-vote-nears/

[Swordsmyth]

Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn (TN) has an eight-point lead over Democrat Phil Bredesen in the race for outgoing Sen. Bob Corker’s (R-TN) seat in November, according to a new poll.

The poll published by CBS/YouGov on Sunday shows Blackburn at 50 percent versus Bredesen’s 42 percent.
Polls earlier in the year had shown Blackburn behind Bredesen by two points. The CBS/YouGov poll was conducted in the lead-up to the Senate’s vote on confirming Justice Brett Kavanaugh, between Oct. 2-5.


More at: https://www.breitbart.com/big-govern...sen-tennessee/

[Swordsmyth]

Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz leads Democrat challenger Beto O’Rourke 50 to 44 in a CBS YouGov poll conducted October 2-5.

The survey of 1,031 registered and likely Texas voters released Sunday showed Cruz with a six point lead over O’Rourke in the more recent CBS battleground tracker poll.

More at: https://www.breitbart.com/big-govern...-october-poll/

[timosman]

Pelosi: House Democrats are working hard to give you a present this November:

[Swordsmyth]

A Tuesday New York Times poll of Congressional races has Republicans in the lead ahead of the Nov. 6 midterm elections.

First results of @UpshotNYT/@SienaResearch Poll:#TNsen:
Blackburn (R) 54 (+14)
Bredesen (D) 40
(120 LV)#TXsen:
Cruz (R – Inc) 54 (+12)
O’Rourke (D) 42
(200 LV)#NVsen:
Heller (R – inc) 48 (+3)
Rosen (D) 45
(212 LV)https://t.co/056GPn74cO
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 9, 2018

The polling also shows Republican candidates for the U.S. House leading in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina, which are typically hard-fought races in districts that can swing either left or right.

For example, the poll shows incumbent Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.) leading Democrat challenger Ron DiNicola by an eight point margin in Pennsylvania’s 16th Congressional District.
In North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District, incumbent Rep. Ted Bud (R-N.C.) leads challenger Kathy Manning, funded by Silicon Valley, by a modest six points.
Incumbent Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Ohio) leads challenger Aftab Pureval outside the margin of error, in Ohio’s 1st Congressional District, according to the poll.
“Our poll is a good result for Republicans. It’s just one poll, though,” the paper reassuringly told its leftist readers of the Ohio race.
The poll also shows Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, billed as one of the Democrats’ most vulnerable seats, essentially tied. Former State Rep. Joe Radinovich, a Democrat, has a meager one point lead over Republican city commissioner Pete Stauber.

More at: https://bigleaguepolitics.com/new-yo...-in-tn-and-tx/

[angelatc]

LOL, ya, this is exactly what happened when Trump got elected - me and others here were literally screaming from the rooftops that the Democrat turnout was being over-represented in the polls and they were taking raw polling data that showed Trump was doing well and making it look like the dems were going to do better because they would have higher turnout and some retards here didn't listen, and they still won't admit they were wrong.

I admittedly thought Trump didn't have a chance, because I heard the same "the polls are wrong!!!" stuff in 2007 and 2012. I have no idea what to think now.

I am not thrilled with the GOP, but I will admit that I do enjoy ticking off the Democrats.

[dannno]

I admittedly thought Trump didn't have a chance, because I heard the same "the polls are wrong!!!" stuff in 2007 and 2012. I have no idea what to think now.

I am not thrilled with the GOP, but I will admit that I do enjoy ticking off the Democrats.

The polls were wrong in 2007 and 2012, but the difference was they suppressed his polling so low (1-2% range) that a lot of people who otherwise would have voted for him decided not to because of the low polling - so they voted for someone who "had a chance". Trump's low polling didn't keep anybody from voting for him because he was the best option who had a chance to win.

The other reason they suppressed his polling was to keep him out of the media, they blacked him out so nobody knew he was a contender or a good option. If they had truthful polling, more people would have been interested, he would have then polled even higher and actually may have had a shot if he had been treated fairly.

[timosman]

http://knockthe.vote/

[timosman]

Skip to 7:00 if you don't want to listen to the entire speech.

[thoughtomator]

I am not thrilled with the GOP, but I will admit that I do enjoy ticking off the Democrats.

The Republicans have people like Rand Paul, Jim Jordan, Mike Lee, Mark Meadows, etc, for which there is no Democrat equivalent whatsoever.

The Democrats are a savage mob that aims to tear you limb from limb.

Shouldn't be too hard to prefer one over the other.

[timosman]