Democrats losing lead on Republicans in midterm election polls

[Swordsmyth]

Republicans defending seats in some of the most competitive House races hold a financial advantage over Democratic challengers as the campaign for control of Congress enters a crucial phase, a Bloomberg tabulation of Federal Election Commission reports shows.
Democrats trying to wrest control of the House in November are running up against the power of incumbency and one of the main pitfalls of the surge of party enthusiasm in the first midterm of Donald Trump’s presidency: multicandidate primaries that splintered donors and drained campaign accounts.
Republicans had more cash-on-hand in 13 of 18 congressional districts where primaries have been held and that are rated as general election tossups by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. The tabulation was based on second-quarter reports that were due this week.
GOP candidates in the 18 districts collectively had $26.6 million in their bank accounts at the end of June, while Democrats have $16 million. A positive for the Democrats: they collectively out-raised the Republicans in those districts during the period, $18.4 million to $10.5 million. The second-quarter surge brought Democrats to parity in the districts -- they’ve raised $40.4 million so far in the cycle, compared to $40.2 million for Republicans.
In 12 of the 13 districts where the GOP has a cash-on-hand advantage, a Republican incumbent is running. Most of them had little or no opposition in their primary elections, meaning they could focus on fundraising and conserve resources.
While both parties will continue raising money right up to the election, the current Republican advantage will allow some GOP candidates to define their Democratic opponents in unflattering ways and steer the agenda during the earliest phase of the general election campaign.


On the House side, the top super-political action committee backing Republican efforts to hold onto the House majority had $71.4 million in the bank at the end of June. The Congressional Leadership Fund balance compares to $16.7 million in the bank as of the end of May for the House Majority PAC, which backs Democrats and must report its latest totals by Friday.
Party committees, like the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee will also play major roles and will file updated reports no later than Friday. The DCCC had a $60.6 million balance at the end of May, while the NRCC had $60.9 million.


The GOP money advantage is illustrated in Maine’s mostly rural 2nd District, where three Democrats competed in a June 12 primary to oppose Republican Representative Bruce Poliquin. The incumbent finished June with a roughly $2.3 million bank-balance advantage over Democratic challenger Jared Golden, a state legislator and Marine Corps veteran.
The cost of competitive Democratic primaries can also be seen in Kentucky’s 6th congressional district, where incumbent Representative Andy Barr had almost $2.8 million in his campaign chest at the end of June. His challenger, former Marine Corps fighter pilot Amy McGrath, ended the quarter with roughly $2 million less.
McGrath won a Democratic primary that included five other candidates, while Barr had only token opposition in his primary. She spent $1.1 million during the second quarter, while his expenditures totaled $367,106.
Tossup races with largest cash-on-hand differences

District	Republican	Democrat	Difference	More in bank
ME-02	Bruce Poliquin	Jared Golden	$2,318,932	Republican
KY-06	Andy Barr	Amy McGrath	$2,033,820	Republican
IL-06	Peter Roskam	Sean Casten	$1,690,807	Republican
CA-10	Jeff Denham	Josh Harder	$1,335,404	Republican
TX-32	Pete Sessions	Colin Allred	$931,103	Republican

Source: Federal Election Commission data compiled by Bloomberg



Candidates with bigger bank balances have more flexibility as Election Day nears and can afford robust television campaigns and canvassing operations.
"Every candidate wants to be the one with the most money in the bank," said Michael Beckel, research director at Issue One, which advocates for tighter limits on political giving. "If you have more money, you have more choices."

More at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ine&yptr=yahoo

[eleganz]

Beto O Rourke out raised Ted Cruz but its going to be such a waste of money. If the dems were smart, Beto would suspend his campaign and help winnable races.

They're all out for themselves and its a weak point that can and should be exposed.

[Swordsmyth]

There's just one problem with the Democrats' unending focus on Russia and the media's constant collusion chatter: few Americans care, because - drumroll - they have real lives in the real economy to worry about.
As the latest survey from Gallup shows: when asked what the most important problem facing the nation is, Russia did not even warrant a 1% - and worse still, it is declining in importance from there.

Source: Gallup
As David Sirota noted, "Gallup recently did a poll of what Americans say is the most important problem facing the country. One finding: the percentage of Americans saying “Situation with Russia” is the most important problem is literally too small to represent with a number. "
So with all that energy expended on pinning the Russia collusion tail on Trump's campaign donkey, let alone former FBI Director Comey's insistence that 'anyone voting Republican is anti-American', we are reminded of the blinkered view of the world so many suffer from and what Steve Bannon said yesterday at CNBC's "Delivering Alpha" conference: The Democrats abandoned the American worker.

The meddling was on the margin, and the Democrats need to accept this. The collusion - they haven't found one shred of evidence.
The Democrats have yet to embrace why they lost...[they] have wanted a do-over since 2:30 am on Nov. 9 - and they've lied and they've bitched and in November they'll get their do-over...but on November 6, the deplorables will be plenty jacked up.

But in November, voters will render their decision, and whatever they decide it'll be on Trump's platform of economic nationalism, which has boosted economic growth and created jobs.

"It's an up or down vote, the economy, the tax cuts the whole package. I think the Fed's going to say in the second quarter it's at 4%...because of economic nationalism."

So, will The Left find policies to run on that are not "socialism"? and are not "not Trump"?




More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...tuation-russia

[eleganz]

Dems have a +8 advantage on RCP average right now. Trump is gonna hurt a little on Russia but his biggest vulnerability right now is the tariffs, which I suppose he is attempting to offset by his phase 2 tax cuts.

[Swordsmyth]

Democratic voter registrations are falling in Florida ahead of what is supposed to be a blue wave midterm election, according to records the state published Monday.
Numbers show that Democratic Party registrations have fallen about 2 percentage points since the 2016 elections. Republican numbers, meanwhile, have held steady at 35 percent, while no-party registrations have increased about 3 points, the data shows. Independents are surging in Florida.
The situation doesn’t look much better for Democrats on the national stage.
Their advantage over Republicans in the generic ballot continues to tumble, dipping from a 10-point advantage Democrats held during May to just 4 points in June, according to a June 7 NBC News poll.

More at: https://thepoliticalinsider.com/flor...ontent=2278066

[Jamesiv1]

Back in 1988 I predicted the Dems would get soundly hammered in the 2018 mid-terms.

I stand by that prediction.

[Zippyjuan]

Democratic voter registrations are falling in Florida ahead of what is supposed to be a blue wave midterm election, according to records the state published Monday.
Numbers show that Democratic Party registrations have fallen about 2 percentage points since the 2016 elections. Republican numbers, meanwhile, have held steady at 35 percent, while no-party registrations have increased about 3 points, the data shows. Independents are surging in Florida.
The situation doesn’t look much better for Democrats on the national stage.
Their advantage over Republicans in the generic ballot continues to tumble, dipping from a 10-point advantage Democrats held during May to just 4 points in June, according to a June 7 NBC News poll.

More at: https://thepoliticalinsider.com/flor...ontent=2278066

From that link:

Democrats enjoy a 10-point advantage on congressional preference, with 50 percent of registered voters wanting a Democratic-controlled Congress, versus 40 percent who want a GOP-controlled one.

Democrats held a 7-point edge on this question back in April, 47 percent to 40 percent.

[Danke]

Back in 1988 I predicted the Dems would get soundly hammered in the 2018 mid-terms.

I stand by that prediction.

I remember that.

[Swordsmyth]

From that link:

They will need more than that, their voters are concentrated in big cities.

[Jamesiv1]

I remember that.

And you know where you were then,
Girls were girls and men were men,
Mister we could use a man like Herbert Hoover again,
Didn't need no welfare states
Everybody pulled his weight,
Gee our old Lasalle ran great,
Those were the days.

[Swordsmyth]

A tracking poll sets up a panel of thousands of voters and returns to them repeatedly over months. That lets pollsters discern the factors driving voter decisions — and gauge how attitudes change as the campaign wears on. In 2016, only two major surveys’ final predictions foresaw a Trump victory. Both of them — from the LA Times/USC and IBD/TIPP — were tracking polls.
“It gives us a great advantage in trying to explain the meaning of the poll results,” Salvanto said.
This year, the CBS Battleground Tracker “is concentrating on the districts that we think will make a difference,” he said. “Remember, in a midterm, you have to watch each congressional seat — don’t pay attention to national numbers.”
Just as a presidential race is not a national contest but a collection of 51 separate elections (one for each state and for the District of Columbia), November’s midterm involves elections for 435 House districts and 35 Senate seats. The collective result will determine which party gains enough seats to control each congressional chamber.
“For pollsters, midterms are the most interesting and difficult challenge we face,” Salvanto said.
Not only must they consider 470 unique races, “there’s never more than a third or at best 40 percent turnout in midterm elections,” he noted. “So we’re looking for a subsample of a subsample” of voters.
For 2018, the CBS News Battleground Tracker has gathered a panel of nearly 5,700 registered voters. Almost all of them live in the 50 to 60 districts that might switch from Republican to Democrat, or vice versa, in November — the only races that matter, when it comes to control of Congress.


Salvanto’s polling currently indicates that few House seats will change hands in November — and that the GOP could very well hold its majority in the House. “In this era, a district’s voting patterns from the past tend to stay that way,” Salvanto said. “Not as many partisans today are willing to cross party lines.” Of the nation’s 435 House districts, fully 85 percent will almost certainly stick with its current party affiliation come November, Salvanto projects.
Choosing the 15 percent of districts that could flip is as much an art as a science, Salvanto said, but “there’s already a consensus forming among pollsters on what districts they are.”
The potential swing districts are scattered from coast to coast. One of Salvanto’s battlegrounds is right here in New York City — NY-11, in Staten Island and south Brooklyn, currently held by Republican Dan Donovan and being challenged by Democrat Max Rose. Others are in states from Texas to Maine to California to, yes, previously underpolled Michigan.
Some are picked for their demographic profile. “For example, we know Democrats have been trying to win suburban voters with college degrees, so we’re looking at the districts with many of those voters,” Salvanto said.
“We also look at where the campaigns are spending money,” he noted — a sign that the parties’ own internal data sees a potential pick-up or a possible loss.
“Overall, the districts in play tend to be more suburban and more affluent than the rest of the country,” he said. “But no single district will tell the national story.
“Right now I think this election looks like a toss-up,” Salvanto said. “We see a Democrat pickup in the House of Representatives in the 20-odd seat range, but Republicans could certainly hold on to the House.” The GOP holds a slim 43-seat House majority, with six vacancies.
“Even though Republicans have not fared well in special elections so far this cycle, it does look like they will be turning out for the midterms,” Salvanto said. “So far we do not see a large number of Republicans saying they will flip and vote for a Democrat.”
GOP voters in the past have been much more likely than Democrats to turn up and cast ballots in midterm elections, regardless of each party’s enthusiasm level ahead of Election Day.
So Democrats are literally betting the House on their ability to capture large numbers of voters who don’t normally vote in midterm elections. “They have to bring new voters in,” Salvanto said.
Democratic anger against President Trump gives them a shot at doing just that. “A large number of Democrats are contesting districts they have not contested before,” Salvanto pointed out. “That has new people coming into politics — younger, more women, more ethnicities — making for some interesting dynamics.”
But, according to his tracking poll, “voters say the Democrats need to do more than just oppose Trump,” he said. “They’re asking, ‘What are they arguing we’ll get if they take the majority?’ ”

Negative media coverage actually has the potential to drive GOP turnout to higher-than-average levels in November. “Among Republicans, Trump’s biggest backers feel driven to come to his defense,” Salvanto’s poll finds.

More at: https://nypost.com/2018/08/18/cbs-ne...e-is-unlikely/

[Swordsmyth]

As American Thinker’s Thomas Lifson writes, “I think it is obvious that the 90% of the media operating as adjuncts of the Democratic Party intend to discourage Republicans so deeply that they do not turn out and vote.... Republicans are doomed! That’s the media’s story, and they’re sticking to it.” But Rasmussen — the most accurate polling outfit during the historic 2016 election — has just released a poll saying otherwise. As it reported Wednesday:
For the first time in months, Democrats and Republicans are tied on the Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot.
The latest telephone and online survey finds that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Another 44% would now opt for the Republican. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
A week ago, Democrats held a 48% to 41% lead on the generic ballot.

If Rasmussen doesn’t convince, there’s always the Tampa Bay Times, which, as Lifson noted, “is not exactly a Republican rag.” As it reported Thursday, “Nearly 1.4 million Floridians have already voted in next Tuesday’s primary.... Republicans have strong leads over Democrats in both voting by mail and in early voting. Statewide, Republicans account for 47 percent of all votes, and Democrats 42 percent.”
This is significant because there are actually more Democrats than Republicans in Florida — approximately 250,000 more. So while all the enthusiasm (and red-hot anger) are supposed to be on the left, the GOP is outperforming the Democrats turnout-wise even more than the 47/42 ratio indicates.
Of course, Republicans are more likely to vote in general; of even greater significance, they’ve enjoyed an average midterm turnout advantage since 1978 of three percentage points relative to their registration numbers.

More at: https://www.thenewamerican.com/usnew...ling-blue-wave

[Swordsmyth]

Maryland Democrats have not yet mounted anything resembling a serious challenge to Republican governor Larry Hogan, in a state where Democrats enjoy a 2-to-1 registration advantage. Democratic challenger Ben Jealous is struggling in fundraising and Hogan consistently enjoys a double-digit lead in polling. You could arguably say the same thing about Charlie Baker’s lead in Massachusetts, but that state has a tradition of GOP governors — Mitt Romney, Jane Swift, Paul Cellucci, Bill Weld.





While Democrats are wildly enthused about Texas Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke, the Lone Star State’s gubernatorial race doesn’t appear competitive at all, with the latest NBC News poll putting incumbent Republican Greg Abbott ahead of Democrat Lupe Valdez by 19 points. (NBC’s poll put Cruz ahead of O’Rourke by just four points. Do you think there will be a 15-point split in the results between the Texas governor and Senate race? Stranger things have happened, but not many.)


Florida’s Bill Nelson has been in the U.S. Senate for three terms, and he might as well have been in the witness-protection program. Sure, he’s not exactly a whirling dervish of raw political charisma, and Florida has a lot of separate media markets and attracts a lot of transplants who might be less familiar with the state’s representatives, but a Mason-Dixon poll last month found that just 36 percent of likely voters recognized his name and felt favorable to him. Another 31 percent felt negative, 26 percent recognized his name but didn’t feel anything towards him, and 7 percent of likely voters didn’t recognize his name. That’s actually something of an improvement; last fall nearly half of Florida voters told a pollster that they didn’t know enough about him to have an opinion. Nelson’s not a goner, but Democrats will rightfully wonder how a three-term incumbent could enter a reelection bid in such weak shape.

Few would predict Republicans to win a Senate race in New Jersey, but there are some sounds of rattles in the engine for incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez, who was indicted on corruption charges in a trial that ended with a hung jury. First, a Quinnipiac poll showed Menendez ahead of Republican Bob Hugin by six points; the same survey found 49 percent of respondents think Menendez was involved in “serious wrongdoing” and only 16 percent disagreed. Last week, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee purchased $117,000 worth of ad time to defend Menendez and on Tuesday, the DSCC added another $340,000 in the New York market.


More at: https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...&utm_content=1

[Swordsmyth]

With 99% of precincts reporting in Florida, about 120,000 more Republicans turned out to vote for governor than Democrats. We'll see how many of the ~700k Repub voters who didn't vote for Trump's candidate today do so in Nov. And Dems now fielding 1st black nominee in FL history. https://t.co/ffFxLV94XZ
— Jory Rand (@ABC7Jory) August 29, 2018

[timosman]

[Swordsmyth]

LOL

[Swordsmyth]

A Rasmussen Reports poll shows a majority of American voters — 68 percent — believe that illegal immigration is a “major problem” and that the federal government is not doing enough to fix it.

The poll also shows that 43 percent of voters consider illegal immigration to be a “very serious” problem.

More at: https://www.breitbart.com/big-govern...-doing-enough/

[Swordsmyth]

Democrats Turn to Therapy Dogs To Encourage Young Voters to Register

LOL

https://twitter.com/RealKyleMorris/s...82274203865088

[enhanced_deficit]

'Putting Israel First' may turn out to be dumb strategy for MAGA if recent Iran/Syria reports are confirmed as non-fakenews.

If turned out that recently leaked Netayahu tape is real, GOP-Jarvanka/Adelson wing could get demolished in next election.

[eleganz]

With 99% of precincts reporting in Florida, about 120,000 more Republicans turned out to vote for governor than Democrats. We'll see how many of the ~700k Repub voters who didn't vote for Trump's candidate today do so in Nov. And Dems now fielding 1st black nominee in FL history. https://t.co/ffFxLV94XZ
— Jory Rand (@ABC7Jory) August 29, 2018

FL gov races has been close in the past two elections, even in 2010, the Republicans barely won with a 60k vote difference. This is going to be a democratic momentum year, FL governorship could go to a socialist or they could reject a socialist...

[Aratus]

The forum poll here seems 50/50 split with only twenty votes or so.
Half think the seats lost in the House will be zero to five, others cluster
closer to the number 25. Some of us might be correct. What matters
is the voters. A long term four decade House Democrat lost to a total
newbie in yesterday's MA primary. Am not sure if she's a Bernie person but
I sense a trend. Any gain by fielding a moderate/centrist seems to cut
against the trends and undercurrents. Trump may have isolated himself
from the GOP Party apparatus. It may be impossible for him to win, even
if one of Mitch McConnell's departing actions is to "pack" the U.S Supreme
Court, whether Trump survives the next two years, or its POTUS PENCE.
Rand has a solid core support. If Mitch McConnell falters the way Jim Bunning
did, can we be open to the idea of a brilliant member of the HOUSE of REPs
.................................................. ...................................running???

[Swordsmyth]

https://twitter.com/nightlypolitics/...37607545298945

Hat Tip: Timosman

[timosman]

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/201...ft-california/

September 9, 2018

This weekend, in an unprecedented move, former President Barack Obama went on the campaign trail to push the far-left Democrat agenda in the upcoming November elections.
But, it didn’t quite turn out like he expected.
Only 750 people showed up at his event in far left California!
Far left George Soros related Think Progress reported over the weekend about former President Obama’s event in Anaheim, California –

ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA — Former President Obama made his first campaign stop of the midterm elections in Orange County, California Saturday to stump for seven Democratic House candidates running in districts currently held by Republicans but that Hillary Clinton won in 2016.

About 750 people attended the event at Anaheim Convention Center, where Obama delivered a short speech centered on unity and the “politics of hope.” And, after a story about getting kicked out of Disneyland when he was caught smoking in the Magic Kingdom after a concert as a teenager, Obama issued an impassioned critique of Trump and the state of American democracy and encouraged the crowd to back the candidates he came to support.

President Trump on the other hand continues to fill up collesiums around the US at his events.

[timosman]

[Anti Globalist]

Can't wait to see these beta male cuck democrats get destroyed in the midterms.

[eleganz]

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/201...ft-california/

To be fair, it was probably a room of 750 people who could write maxed out checks to multiple candidates.

If Obama wanted to, he could do several thousand easily.

[timosman]

To be fair, it was probably a room of 750 people who could write maxed out checks to multiple candidates.

If Obama wanted to, he could do several thousand easily.

I don't think so. The interesting thing about people is once you out of power they don't give a $#@! about you.

[timosman]

[Swordsmyth]

CBS/YouGov polls show Republicans are in good shape to pick up U.S. Senate seats in Montana and Missouri.

In his race against incumbent Democrat Sen. Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Josh Hawley is tied 45 to 45 percent. This is the fourth consecutive poll to show the pair tied. As of now, in the Real Clear Politics poll of polls, the Republican is clinging to a statistically insignificant .4 percent lead.
The good news for Hawley is that McCaskill has not hit 50 percent in a single poll, which is usually a bad sign for the incumbent.
In Montana, Democrat incumbent Sen. Jon Tester leads his Republican challenger, Matt Rosendale, by only two points, 47 percent to 45 percent.
Currently, Real Clear Politics poll of polls shows Tester with a 4.3 percent lead. Not much polling has come out of Montana, but Tester’s lead has dwindled from an eight-point advantage in June to just two points currently.
As of now, Republicans hold a narrow 51-49 majority in the U.S. Senate and are also hoping to pick up Florida and North Dakota, where the Republican challengers are now in the lead, and Indiana, where the Republican appears to be closing in fast.

Because of his legal and ethical problems, incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) is in a tighter-than-expected race to hold his seat.

More at: https://www.breitbart.com/big-govern...s-virtual-tie/

[Swordsmyth]

According to the latest WSJ/NBC News poll, 61% of Republican voters say they're very interested in voting on Nov. 6, when Republicans will be looking to stop the Dems from retaking control of the House. To put that number in context, the poll showed that 65% of Democrats said they're very interested in the vote. Over the first eight months of 2018, Democrats boasted an aggregate 12-point advantage over the Republicans on this metric - an advantage that has shrunk considerably.



More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...trumps-economy