Democrats losing lead on Republicans in midterm election polls

[Swordsmyth]

The latest poll on the midterms is making Democrats nervous. Said anti-Trump MSNBC commentator Mika Brzezinski on Monday, “Democrats can still win the midterms but with time running out, the message and the momentum appears to be on Donald Trump’s side.”
She was referring to the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll’s results which were released on Monday, which noted:
Hand in hand with Republicans’ increased election interest is a rise in Mr. Trump’s job-approval rating to 47%, the highest mark of his time in office, with 49% disapproving of his performance. That is an improvement from September, when 44% approved and 52% disapproved of his performance.
Democrats still lead on the question of which party should control Congress. Among poll respondents identified as likely voters, 50% prefer Democrats, while 41% prefer Republican control, about the same as in last month’s poll.
Among all registered voters, a broader group of respondents, Democrats’ advantage over the GOP is narrower — 48% to 41%.
As The New American reported on Monday, the issue in November isn’t healthcare and it isn’t the economy. It’s Donald Trump. His remarkable jump in the polls in just the last 30 days is what’s making Brzezinski nervous. She added:
We've been talking about the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, which has some favorable signs for Democrats. But also plenty for Republicans to like. Fred Yang, the democratic pollster who works on the survey for NBC and the Journal, said, “What we all thought would be a blue wave is running into a rip tide of uncertainty that has been created with a surge of Republican intensity.”
That “surge of Republican intensity” — stoked by the Democrats’ outrageous handling of the confirmation hearings for Justice Brett Kavanaugh — is at the highest level ever recorded. As GOP pollster Bill McInturff, who assisted with the poll, said, “It’s a barnburner. There’s a switch that’s been flipped.… They [Republican voters] are engaging in the campaign and the process.”

For Brzezinski, the polls showed something even worse:
Throw the national polls out and go race by race, and what you see is a stark reality for the Democratic Party. Barring some dramatic change, control of the Senate is out of reach, and Republicans are fighting very hard to keep the speakership and control of the House and they just might.
Donald Trump is talking about trade, crime, immigration and judges. What are the Democratic issues that pack the same kind of inspiring, emotional punch? Democrats can still win these midterms, but with time running out the message and the momentum appears to be on Donald Trump's side. Democrats have two weeks to turn that around. Can they? For those who are growing increasingly concerned we're about to see a repeat of 2016, there is no time to waste.
It may already be too late. Wrote the Wall Street Journal’s Janet Hook: “Although Democrats are preferred in the national [generic] poll overall, their advantage has vanished in the House districts that matter most. In districts rated as the most competitive … the parties are dead even on the question of which one should control Congress. In last month’s poll, Democrats led by 13 points.”

More at: https://www.thenewamerican.com/usnew...ue-wave-fading

[Swordsmyth]

The Republican National Committee raised nearly three times as much money as the Democratic National Committee in September with $26.2 million in donations compared to the DNC's $9.7 million.
The strong September numbers contribute to a similarly dominant third quarter for the RNC, which raised $57 million in the quarter compared to the DNC's $27 million. In the current election cycle, the DNC has only raised $136 million compared to the RNC's $270 million in donations.

More at: https://freebeacon.com/politics/rnc-...ers-september/

[Swordsmyth]

Republican businessman John Cox has surged in the race for California governor, trailing Democrat Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom by only 7.4% in the latest KFI-NBC poll, conducted by Thomas Partners Strategies.

The poll, released last Wednesday and conducted Oct. 12-14 via landline telephones, shows Newsom with 50.7%, and Cox with 43.3% among likely voters, with a margin of error of about 3.5%. It is the latest poll to show Cox within single digits — perhaps closing a gap that other polls have shown near 20 points.
The poll might be considered an outlier, but shows voters evenly divided over Proposition 6, the ballot initiative to repeal the state legislature’s 2017 gas tax hike of 12 cents per gallon.
It is the second poll in California to show Cox within single digits of Newsom — though the Democrat is shown to have passed the crucial 50% mark, and the poll suggests Cox may struggle to overcome Democrats’ registration advantage.
The poll also notes: “Republicans have eclipsed Democrats in their levels of enthusiasm beyond the margin of error this week. Lastly week the enthusiasm was high on both sides but was tied within the margin.” Among Republicans, 79.0% said the election was “very important,” compared to just 73.7% for Democrats.

More at: https://www.breitbart.com/midterm-el...an-enthusiasm/

[Swordsmyth]

The latest polling out of Arizona provides more indication that the race to become the state’s next U.S. senator is falling into GOP Rep. Martha McSally’s favor.
A New York Times/Siena College poll shows McSally beating Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema by two percentage points, 48 percent to 46 percent. The survey — conducted between Oct. 15 and 19 — reached out to 606 people across the state. It carries a margin of error of 4.2 percent, indicating the election is still a tossup.
While the race is still anyone’s game, the latest poll shows a change in direction for McSally. Over the summer, the Republican congresswoman and combat veteran was trailing Democrat Sinema by as much as double digits. However, the GOP nominee has since closed the gap, and is now leading in the Real Clear Politics average of recent surveys. In an ABC poll released Oct. 9, McSally lead by six percentage points.

More at: https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/21/m...a-senate-poll/

[Swordsmyth]

Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is holding on to the Minnesota Senate seat that she currently occupies, but a recent poll shows her lead over Republican challenger state Sen. Karin Housley has tightened to single digits.
The Star Tribune and Mason-Dixon poll released Monday shows that Housley is trailing the Democratic incumbent by six points, just outside of the 3.5 point margin of error. Smith is leading 47 to 41 percent. This is 10 points tighter than an NBC News-Marist poll conducted weeks earlier that had Smith at a commanding 16-point lead.

More at: https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/22/m...ce-tina-smith/

[dannno]

Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is holding on to the Minnesota Senate seat that she currently occupies, but a recent poll shows her lead over Republican challenger state Sen. Karin Housley has tightened to single digits.
The Star Tribune and Mason-Dixon poll released Monday shows that Housley is trailing the Democratic incumbent by six points, just outside of the 3.5 point margin of error. Smith is leading 47 to 41 percent. This is 10 points tighter than an NBC News-Marist poll conducted weeks earlier that had Smith at a commanding 16-point lead.

More at: https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/22/m...ce-tina-smith/

Does anybody really believe the polls moved that much?

I definitely think Republicans have been gaining momentum, but most of this is the same as what happened in 2016.. they had the polls rigged hard for the Democrats, but then as the election got closer they had to put the polls closer to the realm of reality to save face.

[Swordsmyth]

Does anybody really believe the polls moved that much?

I definitely think Republicans have been gaining momentum, but most of this is the same as what happened in 2016.. they had the polls rigged hard for the Democrats, but then as the election got closer they had to put the polls closer to the realm of reality to save face.

I don't think there was that much movement but there is movement our direction.

I don't think the vote zombies have been as fired up as they have claimed all along, you can't stay enthusiastic for 2 years and the Dems have tried to keep them whipped up constantly instead of letting them rest, I have said that they are going to cause burnout in their voter base and I think they have, I expect them to have obviously low turnout.

[r3volution 3.0]

Since you always quote the RCP average, last time dems swept the RCP average over-performed by 4 points. Dems will need +5.5 to win the house battle. If everything were held today and we go by the RCP model, you'd be wrong bud.

In these next two weeks anything can still happen and then its all about turnout, which the polling averages assumed a Dem surge and Republicans with low excitement. RCP average is bunk right now.

Well, they're currently at +7.7, so I'm not sure what you're saying...

[Swordsmyth]

Well, they're currently at +7.7, so I'm not sure what you're saying...

I think he is saying that you should subtract 4 points:

last time dems swept the RCP average over-performed by 4 points.

[r3volution 3.0]

I think he is saying that you should subtract 4 points:

Ah, if so, I missed that.

In any event, I'm not really interested in debating these reasons-to-ignore-the-polls theories.

Let's wait two weeks and see what happens.

My money says the Dems take dozens of seats, and probably the majority in the House (GOP will keep the senate, maybe even gain a seat).

[enhanced_deficit]

Democrats losing lead on Republicans in midterm election polls

Dems Losing Lead on RINOs

Fixed it.


That is encouraging.. especially fior a future 3rd party that is not puppet of same money baggers in this theatre of the puppets with different costumes but same masters.

[Swordsmyth]

Dems Losing Lead on RINOs

Fixed it.

The GOP is currently a mixed bag.

That is encouraging.. especially fior a future 3rd party that is not puppet of same money baggers in this theatre of the puppets with different costumes but same masters.

This is actually true, if the Demoncrats implode there will be a chance to create a new party to the right of the GOP with libertarian leanings.

[r3volution 3.0]

This is going to be funny.

...to watch the red tribe get slaughtered by the blue tribe.

It's like a vacation to Papua New Guinea.

[Swordsmyth]

This is going to be funny.

...to watch the red tribe get slaughtered by the blue tribe.

It's like a vacation to Papua New Guinea.

You've got it backwards............as usual.

[r3volution 3.0]

You've got it backwards............as usual.

I know that you have an interest in the outcome.

I was going to comment on that, but it doesn't matter.

[Swordsmyth]

I know that you have an interest in the outcome.

I was going to comment on that, but it doesn't matter.

Everyone has an interest in the outcome, the question is why you want the psychos to win.

[r3volution 3.0]

Everyone has an interest in the outcome, the question is why you want the psychos to win.

They'll be winning either way.

[Swordsmyth]

They'll be winning either way.

Moral/sanity equivalence is the last refuge of a scoundrel.

[r3volution 3.0]

Moral/sanity equivalence is the last refuge of a scoundrel.

I'm not rooting for the scoundrels..

[Swordsmyth]

I'm not rooting for the scoundrels..

No, you the scoundrel are rooting for the psychos.

[r3volution 3.0]

No, you the scoundrel are rooting for the psychos.

Ah, I see.

[Schifference]

Is it common practice for former presidents to campaign vigorously against current administration? Obama and Biden seem to be hard at it. I don't ever remember previous presidents campaigning against administration. I thought it was practice to leave office and not interfere with what new administration did. Say what you want about George junior but I don't think he went around dissing Obama or the democrats when out of office.

[Schifference]

I would interpret Obama campaigning as a sign that the democrats are very scared and weak. If this were a football game the score would be tied with 1 minute remaining not one minute remaining and one team with a 40 point lead.

[Schifference]

Is Soros paying Obama? I am confident he is not doing this for free or at a loss for the cause.

[AuH20]

I doubt they listen to him. He knows.

[Swordsmyth]

Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly of Indiana may have given his GOP opponent Mike Braun the rope to hang him with by voting "No" on Justice Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court. As of now, Braun is four points ahead of Donnelly, putting him on track to unseat him in the Senate should the trend continue.
According to the Washington Examiner, internal campaign polling from Mike Braun shows that he is leading his Democratic opponent by a narrow margin.
"The survey of 800 likely voters, conducted Oct. 14-17, showed Braun with a 44-40 percent advantage over Donnelly, who voted against Kavanaugh's confirmation after a nasty partisan battle that saw his nomination rocked by uncorroborated allegations of sexual misconduct," reports the outlet.

Braun's top strategists, Jon Kohan and Josh Kelley, said Donnelly's fall coincided with the Kavanaugh vote, which they claim was "political suicide" in a red Hoosier state. "Since Senator Donnelly committed the equivalent of political suicide by voting against Justice Kavanaugh a little more than two weeks ago, the bottom has fallen out of his campaign," they said in a statement.

More at: https://www.dailywire.com/news/37440...eads-paul-bois

[Swordsmyth]

But while the new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll out today gives Democrats a nine-point advantage nationwide in voting for the House, it tells a different story in the battleground seats that will determine control:

The Democratic advantage has vanished in House districts that matter most. In districts rated as most competitive, the parties are dead even on which one should control Congress. In last month’s poll, Dems led by 13 points among registered voters and 6 points among likely voters.

In other words, Republicans have a real chance to beat the odds and hold their losses below the 23 seats that would transfer House control.

More at: https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/...e-predictions/

[Swordsmyth]

And while poll suggest that Republicans are closing the gap with Democrats, increasing the likelihood that they retain control of the House and the Senate following the Nov. 6 midterm, the Dems are worried that signs of interest among Latino voters won't translate to the voting booth. According to Bloomberg, one survey released Sunday found 71% of Latinos registered high interest in the midterms, a jump from the 49% of Latinos who said that in mid-September. Among voters under 35, the poll said 51% expressed high interest, which is lower than the 65% average for all registered voters.
This is hugely problematic for Democratic strategists, because there are 31 GOP-controlled districts where Hispanics make up one-quarter of the population or more.

"It’s just a really, really big question about who’s going to turn out to vote," Lake said. "We could lose Senate seats over it. We could lose - the margin in the House could be greatly reduced. There are a good 15 seats where the millennial and Latino vote make a huge difference, could be the margin of victory."

In the past, any interest ahead of the vote expressed by young voters and minorities didn’t translate at the ballot box, as both demographics largely sat out the midterms in 2014, 2010 and 2006. Historically, the trend in non-presidential elections is that voters are older, white and married - demographics that often benefit Republicans.
In 2014, Hispanics comprised 25.1% of eligible voters but just 6.8% of the electorate. In 2010, they accounted for 21.3% of eligible voters and 6.6% of the electorate. In 2006, a strong year for Democrats, they were 17.3% of eligible voters and just 5.6 percent of the electorate.
One strategist perfectly summed up the contradiction in the data: while young voters are "very, very fired up, but the question is: Are they fired up for the next protest or for the next election?"


More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...spanic-turnout

[eleganz]

Ah, if so, I missed that.

In any event, I'm not really interested in debating these reasons-to-ignore-the-polls theories.

Basing an assumption on the RCP average is wrong and is as much a theory as it is to say that that the polls should be ignored. So why does one theory carry weight and the other doesn't?

The last year's worth of polls have been assuming dem surge and now there is no dem surge so all of those polls are irrelevant. The only ones that are relevant are those conducted post-Kavanaugh and there have been very little conducted post-Kavanaugh as house races are expensive to poll.

But yes the only way to know is to wait it out.

[Swordsmyth]

As with many states, Nevada has unique election laws. It has early voting, but on the first weekend only the two population centers of Las Vegas (Clark County) and Reno (Washoe) are open. The “red rurals” are all closed. A false picture thus unfolds after the first two days. However, there was still room for concern at first: Democrats were doing better in Washoe County than they have historically.
What a difference a few days makes. Once the red rurals opened, Republican early votes flooded in and at the same time Clark began to see a dropoff. In fact, the shift has been so stunning that Nevada Democrat analyst John Ralston of the “Ralston Report” went from all but popping the champagne on Sunday to now warning that Democrats will need a “Clark firewall” to prevent a total disaster.


There won’t be a firewall. My confidante and analyst on Nevada, “The Dentist,” has run the numbers and they are shocking. Keep in mind Trump only lost the state by 27,000 votes, and that Republicans have gained 29,000 net new registrations in Nevada since 2016.

What the Dentist found was the the rate of return for the Democrats has crashed, literally last night plummeting from a dropoff of 73% from the 2016 totals to 79%. Put another way, right now the Democrats are projected to get only 21% of their 2016 totals. In terms of numbers of votes, the Dentist calculates that Jackie Rosen, the Democrat senate candidate, will be a whopping 35,000 votes short of winning! Dean Heller would win more comfortably than anyone imagined if these numbers hold up. Adam Laxalt would likewise win the governorship, and it would mean both NV3 and NV4 congressional districts would be once again seriously vulnerable.
But let’s jump from Nevada’s silver mines to the Iron Range of Minnesota where similar developments are unfolding: it now appears that Cong. Keith Ellison is crashing so hard he may take down the entire Minnesota establishment with him. Right now my sources in Minnesota are confident that Ellison will lose the Attorney General race, and by more than 5 points. But the news gets better for Republicans: all state candidates are including Ellison in their ads, and it is having a serious impact. Not only is Karin Housley now well within the margin of error, but suddenly Jim Newberger is just outside the MOE in his race with Amy Klobuchar—a seat until last week considered entirely safe! The governor’s race is now very close. More!? Word is that all the red districts are turning out at 2016 levels and above, and that virtually every candidate except Erik Paulsen now has the wind at his or her back. Paulsen, of course, was a neverTrumper who is paying for it, as all neverTrumpers nationally are.
It’s too bad, because there is an opportunity for the old Vikings’ Sweep in Minnesota. Now Paulsen may be on the bench.
These “canaries” suggest, for the first time, that the massive early and absentee advantages the Republicans are piling up may translate into the House races and seriously open up the possibility of the Republicans actually gaining a seat or two in the House.

More at: https://bigleaguepolitics.com/data-g...r-republicans/