Democrats losing lead on Republicans in midterm election polls

[Swordsmyth]

Taking Congress back from the Republicans in this year's midterm elections may be more difficult for Democrats than anticipated, according to recent polling.
A new poll from ABC News and the Washington Post shows Democrats’ advantage is narrowing in a so-called “generic ballot”, where voters are asked which party they plan to favour in the coming election. In January, Democrats lead Republicans in a generic matchup by 12 per cent. In April, that lead was just 4 per cent.


The polls come in advance of the November midterms, when the two parties will battle for control of Congress. The most potential for change exists in the House, where Democrats need to flip just 24 seats to regain the majority. The calculations thus far have looked to be in their favour, as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings hit historic lows and dozens of Republican politicians announced their resignations.
But the ABC/Washington Post results show that lead is narrowing somewhat, with Republicans making sizeable gains among white voters. An average of the generic polls from Real Clear Politics had Democrats leading Republicans by 6.2 per cent on Monday, compared to 9.3 per cent at the beginning of last month.

More at: https://www.yahoo.com/news/democrats...163700225.html

Blue Ebb Tide

[timosman]

We need more RINOs switching sides to the rescue.

[oyarde]

First off , 12 percent is a ridiculous figure unless you are just polling heavy dem states where they already control the seats and they will never be up for grabs .

[Aratus]

Sean Hannity's lawyer just got his office raided by the powers that be,
POTUS is about to sign a presidential pardon for Sean Hannity I hear...

[Aratus]

Duckies... It's a Yellow DAWG Democrat year even up in the North!

[Swordsmyth]

The lead held by Democrats over Republicans on generic ballot polls ahead of the 2018 midterm elections is beginning to slip, a new CNN poll suggests.
Overall, 31 percent of respondents in a poll released Wednesday told CNN that they believe the country would be better off with Democrats in control of Congress, while 30 percent said Republicans should hold the reins. However, the largest proportion of respondents, at 34 percent, said it makes no difference to them who is in charge.
Among registered voters asked whether they would vote Democratic or Republican in their congressional district if the elections were held today, Democrats had a three-point advantage, at 44 percent to 41 percent, which is within the poll's margin of error.
Democrats have seen a steady decline in their advantage over Republicans in recent months, according to CNN polling, falling from a 16-point advantage in February to a 6-point one in March, to just a 3-point lead this week, roughly six months away from the midterm elections.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll similarly found last month that Democrats' lead over Republicans among registered voters was only 4 points, at 47 percent to 43 percent, down from a 12-point lead the poll found Democrats held in January.

Democrats still have an edge in enthusiasm, according to CNN. Among respondents who said they are excited to vote in November, more plan to vote Democratic than Republican, at 53 percent to 41 percent.
But enthusiasm does seem to be growing among GOP voters. According to the CNN poll, 44 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters said they were "very enthusiastic" about voting, which is a jump from 36 percent in March.

More at: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...ic-ballot-poll

[dannno]

The lead held by Democrats over Republicans on generic ballot polls ahead of the 2018 midterm elections is beginning to slip, a new CNN poll suggests.
Overall, 31 percent of respondents in a poll released Wednesday told CNN that they believe the country would be better off with Democrats in control of Congress, while 30 percent said Republicans should hold the reins. However, the largest proportion of respondents, at 34 percent, said it makes no difference to them who is in charge.
Among registered voters asked whether they would vote Democratic or Republican in their congressional district if the elections were held today, Democrats had a three-point advantage, at 44 percent to 41 percent, which is within the poll's margin of error.
Democrats have seen a steady decline in their advantage over Republicans in recent months, according to CNN polling, falling from a 16-point advantage in February to a 6-point one in March, to just a 3-point lead this week, roughly six months away from the midterm elections.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll similarly found last month that Democrats' lead over Republicans among registered voters was only 4 points, at 47 percent to 43 percent, down from a 12-point lead the poll found Democrats held in January.

Democrats still have an edge in enthusiasm, according to CNN. Among respondents who said they are excited to vote in November, more plan to vote Democratic than Republican, at 53 percent to 41 percent.
But enthusiasm does seem to be growing among GOP voters. According to the CNN poll, 44 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters said they were "very enthusiastic" about voting, which is a jump from 36 percent in March.

More at: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...ic-ballot-poll

The real polling didn't actually change that much, they just have to start bringing the fake numbers more in line with reality before the real deal happens.

[Swordsmyth]

The real polling didn't actually change that much, they just have to start bringing the fake numbers more in line with reality before the real deal happens.

Perhaps, but I doubt it hasn't gotten worse at all for the Demoncrats due to recent events.

[Swordsmyth]

For the very first time since April of 2017, when Real Clear Politics first started monitoring the average, the Democrat advantage in the generic ballot has dipped below 5 percent, to just 4.7 percent.

Until this week, Democrats enjoyed a steady average of a +5 percent advantage. Of late, that average has climbed as high as +13 percent. But since then, the erosion, in fits and starts, has steadily drifted downward, and now, at least in this election season, it is at a record low.
For the sake of context, in 2014, with a 2.4 percent GOP advantage in this same poll, Republicans picked up only 13 House seats.
During the 2010 mid-terms, with a 9.4 percent GOP advantage, Republicans picked up 63 House seats.
In 2006, with an 11.5 percent Democrat edge, Democrats picked up 31 seats.
This year, Democrats will need to flip 24 seats to retake the House, which is looking a lot less doable when you consider that with a huge 11.5 percent advantage, Democrats were only able to snatch 31 seats.
With just a 4.7 percent advantage, Democrats are likely within range of handing the gavel to Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), but a closer look at the movement of the numbers shows that Democrat energy has been flat, while GOP energy is building.
On March 1, Democrats earned 45.9 percent support, while Republicans earned just 36.6 percent. Today, Democrats sit at 45 percent compared to the GOP’s 40.3 percent.

More at: http://www.breitbart.com/big-governm...-hits-new-low/

[Swordsmyth]

Polling by Reuters shows that Republicans are now six points ahead of Democrats in the race for the U.S. Congress, a remarkable turnaround given that they were once as much as 16 points behind.

The numbers show that when registered voters are asked, “If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live?” the GOP comes out on top.
40.7 per cent of respondents said they would vote for a Republican, with 34.5 per cent saying they would vote for a Democrat.

The numbers are huge because they completely contradict the narrative that Democrats were set to easily take the House in a “blue wave”.
As recently as December, a CNN poll had Democrats 16 points ahead, a lead that has now been utterly obliterated.
The results point to the fact that Americans are very happy with how President Trump has reinvigorated the economy.
Nearly two out of three Americans polled by CBS say the economy is either “very good” or “somewhat good.”
Dilbert creator Scott Adams offered wry commentary on the Congressional poll, tweeting, “On the plus side, Democrats still have 100% support from MS-13 and Iran.”

On the plus side, Democrats still have 100% support from MS-13 and Iran. https://t.co/gYSKlpWY9V
— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) May 22, 2018

https://www.infowars.com/huge-republ...essional-poll/

[enhanced_deficit]

That is highly amazing development, media owners employees finally coming to their senses and putting breaks on fakenews polls.


Un-related

No proof that Trump 50% approval polls, Kanye tweets are Neocons 'thank you' for Syria bombing / Blocking Gaza killings investigation

[Swordsmyth]

The poll, conducted May 24-30 with 5,693 registered voters in competitive and potentially competitive congressional districts, also found that the contest for House control is now a “toss-up,” with 219 seats likely to go Democratic and 216 tilting Republican in the November election.

CBS News Battleground Tracker: A closer look at the parties

In battleground districts where control of House will be decided, eight in 10 of Trump’s 2016 backers say they’re sticking with GOP for Congress. https://t.co/4F5EMxQxp3pic.twitter.com/X80yunh8hE
— CBS News (@CBSNews) June 3, 2018

The results, which belie longstanding predictions of a “blue wave” that would sweep Republicans out of power, show that “control is totally up for grabs,” given the poll’s nine-seat margin of error.
Those voting for Democrats were split on the reason for their vote, with 51 percent saying it was a vote in favor of Democratic policies and 49 percent describing it as a vote against President Trump and Republicans.
Meanwhile, 73 percent of those voting for Republicans said their support was for the White House and Trump policies, with 27 percent calling it a vote against the Democrats.

More at: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...lity-voters-s/

[timosman]

[Swordsmyth]

Predictions of a Blue Wave in the upcoming midterm elections fueled by opposition to President Donald Trump may not be considering the president’s popularity with his base and the enthusiasm of Republican voters, according to a new poll by Rasmussen Reports.

On June 7, 2018, Trump had a 49 percent approval rating compared to Barack Obama, who had a 46 percent approval rating on June 7, 2010.
The poll also found GOP voters more enthusiastic than Democrats and independents about casting a vote in November and found voters overall more enthusiastic about getting to the ballot box than in the last midterm.
Rasmussen reported:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 70% of Likely Republican Voters say they are more likely to vote this year than they have been in past election years. That compares to 64% of Democrats and 51% of voters not affiliated with either major political party.
Among all Likely Voters, 62 percent say they are more likely to vote this year. Only six percent say they are less likely to do so, while 30% say they are just as likely to vote this November as in any other year.
By comparison, in July 2014, 57% said they were more likely to vote that November compared to past elections. Enthusiasm was higher two years ago during the presidential campaign, with 67% who said they were more likely to vote.

The poll also found Trump supporters more likely to vote than those who oppose the president and his policies.
Some 73% of voters who strongly approve of Trump’s job performance are more likely to vote, with 65% of voters who strongly disapprove of the job the president is doing likely to vote.

More at: http://www.breitbart.com/big-governm...-for-midterms/

[Danke]

[timosman]

We are $#@!ed. We need to hire another Zippy.

[Swordsmyth]

President Donald Trump’s campaign to discredit special counsel’s investigation may be working: A new Politico/Morning Consult poll puts Robert Mueller’s favorability at just 32 percent.
More people — 36 percent — have an unfavorable opinion of Mueller than a favorable one. The remaining 32 percent don’t have an opinion or say they haven’t heard of Mueller.
This is just one poll, but it may be an unsettling sign that the president’s attacks on the special counsel — bolstered by conservative media — are having an effect, at least among Republicans. A total of 53 percent of Republicans view Mueller unfavorably, up from 27 percent in July 2017, according to Politico. Democrats’ opinions have also dipped slightly; now 24 percent see Mueller unfavorably versus 21 percent in July 2017.
The Politico/Morning Consult poll was conducted June 7-10 among 1,994 registered voters, and covered an array of topics, not just on Mueller and the special counsel investigation.

More at: https://www.vox.com/2018/6/13/174600...mp-russia-poll

[Swordsmyth]

A new poll by CBS News suggests that if Democrats were hoping the crush of illegal immigrants at the U.S. border would spark a “blue wave” in November’s midterms, they might need to come up with a new strategy.
Democrats are seeing their lead over Republicans in a generic ballot preference shrinking, even in a poll conducted during some of the most intense media coverage of illegal immigrants and the fate of their children when crossing into the U.S.
The CBS poll, conducted in partnership with YouGov, found Democrats holding a four-point advantage — 40 percent to 36 percent — when respondents were asked which party they would like to see win control of Congress in November. The remaining 24 percent of respondents replied “doesn’t matter” to the question.
By comparison, an NBC poll asking the same question at the beginning of June found 50 percent of respondents wanted to see Democrats take control of Congress, or 10 points higher than Republicans.
That’s a 60 percent drop in the margin enjoyed by Democrats in about a three-week period, suggesting either poor methodology by one of the two organizations, or the fact the immigration crisis has not hurt Republicans as they prepare for the midterms.

More at: https://www.westernjournal.com/ct/bo...start-of-june/

[Jamesiv1]

Very good video. Spot on content value and excellent production. Clever girl.

+rep and subscribed to her channel.

[Danke]

Very good video. Spot on content value and excellent production. Clever girl.

+rep and subscribed to her channel.

[RonZeplin]

Polls said that Hillary would win, they were wrong.

Polls say that Republicans will win. If we learn from past polling results, it's clear that the GOP will lose.

Polling results show that, polls are wrong.

[Swordsmyth]

Polls said that Hillary would win, they were wrong.

Polls say that Republicans will win. If we learn from past polling results, it's clear that the GOP will lose.

Polling results show that, polls are wrong.

Polls tend to be skewed in favor of the left.

[timosman]

Polls tend to be skewed in favor of the left.

Reality has a liberal bias.

[thoughtomator]

Polls tend to be skewed in favor of the left.

I'd wager 15-20% of respondents to your average media poll have to answer in Spanish.

[Swordsmyth]

Reality has a liberal bias.

Actually reality tends to be conservative and leave the pollsters looking stupid.

[eleganz]

I wonder how red the political map would be if illegal aliens weren't voting.

[Philhelm]

I wonder how red the political map would be if illegal aliens weren't voting.

It would look like a slaughtered pig.

[Swordsmyth]

The "Walk Away" movement

[Swordsmyth]

The Washington Post found that most Americans disagree with the position pushed by a federal judge in California demanding that the Trump administration quickly release migrants with children who have entered the country illegally and allow the family to stay until a future hearing — the illegal immigration-promoting "catch and release" policy of the Obama administration.

Unfortunately for the #AbolishICE Democrats, the Post found "broad support" not for the Democrats' preferred policy, but for Trump's approach:

Despite the legal setback, the Post-Schar School poll shows broad support for the policy Trump administration lawyers pushed for, including among a wide range of political groups. Keeping immigrant families in detention rather than releasing them garners support from 74 percent of Republicans and 60 percent of independents. Democrats — 89 percent of whom disapprove of Trump’s handling of immigration — are almost evenly split on the question, with 49 percent saying families should be detained, while 50 percent say they should be temporarily released.
There is little gender gap on the question, with 59 percent of men and 57 percent of women preferring to detain immigrant families together until their case is resolved. That compares with child-parent separations, about which women were 25 percentage points more likely than men to say they “strongly opposed” (65 percent vs. 40 percent).

As Ed Morrissey points out, that majority support is also consistent in one particularly important demographic this year: "battleground" voters, who support it 64/35. It's also supported by non-battleground voters 60/35.

While a plurality of Hispanics (45/50) disagree with Trump's policy, a plurality of African-Americans (48/45) support it.
Meanwhile, the polling data for the unofficial 2018 Democrat slogan is not looking good at all. Here's what a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll learned:

Only 1 in 4 voters in the poll, 25 percent, believe the federal government should get rid of ICE. The majority, 54 percent, think the government should keep ICE. Twenty-one percent of voters are undecided.
But a plurality of Democratic voters do support abolishing ICE, the poll shows. Among Democrats, 43 percent say the government should get rid of ICE, while only 34 percent say it should keep ICE. Majorities of Republicans (79 percent) and independents (54 percent) want the government to keep ICE.

More at: https://www.dailywire.com/news/33058...&utm_content=1

[Swordsmyth]

Republican National Committee fundraising is fiery hot: the RNC has now raised $213 million for the 2017-2018 election cycle, at least $100 million more than the Democratic National Committee raised during the same time period.
The RNC raised $13.9 million in June, a record for June in a non-presidential year, as The Washington Free Beacon reports. In addition, the RNC has no debt and $50.7 million cash on hand, quintupling the cash on hand held by the DNC.
RNC chair Ronna McDaniel asserted, "What I see when I travel the country is that Americans continue to be enthusiastic about President Trump and the Republican agenda. That enthusiasm has allowed for me to grow our war chest and invest it into what has become the biggest ground game in our Party’s history."

More at: https://www.dailywire.com/news/33194...&utm_content=1