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Thread: 'Is Curing Patients a Sustainable Business Model?' Goldman Sachs Analysts Ask

  1. #1

    Default 'Is Curing Patients a Sustainable Business Model?' Goldman Sachs Analysts Ask

    https://science.slashdot.org/story/1...s-analysts-ask

    In an April 10 report for biotech clients, Goldman Sachs analysts noted that one-shot cures for diseases are not great for business as they're bad for longterm profits. The investment banks' report, titled "The Genome Revolution," asks clients: "Is curing patients a sustainable business model?" The answer may be "no," according to follow-up information provided. Slashdot reader tomhath shares the report from Ars Technica:

    Analyst Salveen Richter and colleagues laid it out: "The potential to deliver 'one shot cures' is one of the most attractive aspects of gene therapy, genetically engineered cell therapy, and gene editing. However, such treatments offer a very different outlook with regard to recurring revenue versus chronic therapies... While this proposition carries tremendous value for patients and society, it could represent a challenge for genome medicine developers looking for sustained cash flow."

    For a real-world example, they pointed to Gilead Sciences, which markets treatments for hepatitis C that have cure rates exceeding 90 percent. In 2015, the company's hepatitis C treatment sales peaked at $12.5 billion. But as more people were cured and there were fewer infected individuals to spread the disease, sales began to languish. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that the treatments will bring in less than $4 billion this year. [Gilead]'s rapid rise and fall of its hepatitis C franchise highlights one of the dynamics of an effective drug that permanently cures a disease, resulting in a gradual exhaustion of the prevalent pool of patients," the analysts wrote. The report noted that diseases such as common cancers -- where the "incident pool remains stable" -- are less risky for business.
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  3. #2

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    The mask slips.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  4. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    The mask slips.
    On our economy.
    Truth is a social construct.

  5. #4

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    There will always be pools of patients for other diseases. Take the win and move on to other diseases. More money for research and development. It's not a zero sum game.

    Of course nobody ever talks about the free cures. A consistent practice of abstinence until marriage would wipe out new cases of HIV/AIDS in one generation. Stopping IV drug use and promiscuity would eliminate most forms of hepatitis. Nobody ever talks about that.

    Some commercials make me mad. The one about HepC drives me crazy. I don't have to be tested for it because I practiced abstinence until marriage and so did husband. Neither one of us used drugs at all. We are at no risk.
    "There are two freedoms - the false, where a man is free to do what he likes; the true, where he is free to do what he ought."~~Charles Kingsley

  6. #5

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    It's not good for business that wants to rely on a captive market or does not diversify.

    Anyway isn't there inherent value to a company's reputation for helping people this way? So the initial customer pool dried up from curing them they should take that success story to other investors.

    Now maybe the other investors worry about any additional patient pools drying up, but c'mon think about this is as a developing technology being refined or R & D paying for itself. Meanwhile the good reputation gained helps in forging business relationships not necessarily dependent on just this specific treatment.

  7. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by euphemia View Post
    Of course nobody ever talks about the free cures. A consistent practice of abstinence until marriage would wipe out new cases of HIV/AIDS in one generation. Stopping IV drug use and promiscuity would eliminate most forms of hepatitis. Nobody ever talks about that.
    So would using condoms.
    Truth is a social construct.



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