Trump touts falling aluminum prices after tariffs

[nikcers]

Actually, it does. That aside, we were not speaking of industries, but entire economies. BIG difference. It's one thing when your 30' cabin cruiser sinks with 3 people aboard. There is a big difference in degree when a cruise ship with seven thousand people goes under.




That sucks dead bunnies, but it is not the same as having no food.



The pretending was the opposite - that the world had somehow come to an end, or was about to.

I don't think anyone is saying it wasn't bad - I sure am not. But people were not dying by the millions, if even by the handfuls. I'm sure a few suicides can be rightly linked to the downturn, and as I before acknowledged, many lost their shirts - but the fact that new shirts could be had is prima facie proof that the economy had not come anywhere near to crashing. Had it, the corpses would have been piled high.

When an economy crashes for real, government is unable to bail out people because there is nothing left with which to do so. It is a most dangerously unfortunate habit of men to inflate truth with words unsuited to a circumstance. "Oh my GOD, the economy has CRASHED!!!". No, $#@!, it hiccuped or farted and some people were hurt. Nobody went hungry. Hospitals didn't run out of medicines. Fuels didn't become unavailable. Fertilizers didn't disappear, along with entire crops.

A market crash is not good, but it is nothing compared with a general economic crash wherein the transactional infrastructure collapses into rubble. That is very serious business and has happened only a relatively few times throughout human history. Even the black plague didn't quite bring about European economic collapse, though it seems to have come uncomfortably close.

A big ship takes a long time to turn around and a long time to sink. I bet people didn't even think the titanic was sinking because they were convinced that it was unsinkable. Just imagine if a bunch of people started to bail out the water constantly, it would even take longer to sink..

[Aratus]

U.S. aluminum prices are dropping, despite a 10% tariff imposed by President Donald Trump on the metal in early March intended to protect U.S. companies and allow for the creation of new manufacturing plants, one of his main promises during the 2016 presidential election.
The president touted the falling aluminum costs -- down 4% from when the White House first announced the tariffs -- on Twitter early Friday morning.
“Despite the Aluminum Tariffs, Aluminum prices are DOWN 4%. People are surprised, I’m not!” he wrote. “Lots of money coming into U.S. coffers and Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!”

More at: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics...-after-tariffs
@Aratus

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WHAT IF THE ECONOMY IS ABOUT TO REALLY TANK...

[goldenequity]

U.S. ATTEMPTS TO PUT FORCEFUL, SANCTION PRESSURE ON RUSSIA DO NOT LOOK LIKE SEEKING DIALOGUE;
THEY ARE UNDERMINING GLOBAL STABILITY - RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY
(yes. they indeed are.)


--------------

Russia’s aluminum deliveries to Japan halted over US sanctions
http://tass.com/economy/1000715
Russia accounts for about 15% of Japan’s aluminum imports, according to Rusal Japan




Teaming up with China...

Russian Aluminum Giant Seeks Rescue From US Sanctions In China
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...anctions-china

One week ago, when we first discussed the upcoming surge in commodity prices - especially aluminum and nickel - following Trump's latest Russian sanctions,
which in turn
sent the stock and bond prices of Russian aluminum giant Rusal crashing amid fears the company
would be unable to access capital markets now that it has become "radioactive" to western banks,
we suggested that it do the next logical thing:
"seek funding in China" or approach Beijing as a market that is exempt from US sanctions: after all, China itself has a ravenous demand for the product.



As it turns out, that's precisely what the company - owned by Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska -has done.

----

While Beijing may be able to quietly provide Rusal with funding, China may not be the "all-in" savior Rusal is seeking.

SUPPLY
As a reminder, the world’s biggest aluminum producer has already been cutting excess capacity, and has been exporting, and in some cases dumping,
huge volumes of aluminum products it doesn’t need domestically and exchange warehouses are brimming with record stockpiles.
What’s more, its own aluminum industry is being targeted by U.S. trade tariffs.

“It’s understandable that Rusal is looking for a solution from China as the country is the world’s biggest market of the metal,”
“We’ll see major concerns from the Chinese side amid the current sensitivity in the global trade environment.”

Meanwhile, the most likely outcome is that as US sanctions persist, Russia's aluminum output will remain in limbo,
which will cripple European procurement, as the continent is Rusal's biggest buyer...



while sending global supply chain for aluminum -
which is used in everything from planes made by Boeing to Ford trucks to Campbell soup to Budweiser beer cans - in disarray.



And since Rusal supplies about 6% of the world’s aluminum or about 17% of production outside China,
and operates mines, smelters and refineries from Ireland to Jamaica,
the impact of recent sanctions has sent aluminum prices soaring to the highest since 2011.



Meanwhile, as the world refuses to accept Rusal's product,
the Russian aluminum giant is said to be stockpiling large quantities of aluminum at one of its plants in Siberia, according to Reuters.
With the firm’s own storage space filling up with unsold aluminum, Rusal executives in Sayanogorsk, in southern Siberia,
have had to rent out additional space to accommodate the surplus stock, one of the sources told Reuters.



DISARRAY
“Aluminum sales have broken down. And now the surplus aluminum is being warehoused in production areas of the factory itself,”

Several people connected to Rusal said that Oleg Deripaska, the company’s main shareholder who along with the company
was included on a U.S. sanctions blacklist, visited Sayanogorsk this week for a closed-door meeting with staff.

Reuters spoke to a contractor at the Sayanogorsk plants who said the stockpiled ingots, stacked on pallets, were building up fast.
He said two days’ worth of production would fill up a five-car train, but already a week had gone by with aluminum piling up.

“Can you imagine a week?” he said. “There’s a hell of a lot there, a hell of a lot. It’s being stockpiled, it’s not being shipped.”

An electrician working for Rusal said the ingots were being squeezed into all available space.

“The storage is not quite full,” said the electrician, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal company affairs.
“Something is still being loaded all the same, some stuff is being shipped.”

* * *

To be sure, the Russian company will hardly give up without a fight:
on Tuesday its Hong-Kong traded shares, which had lost more than 60% since the sanctions were announced last week,
surged nearly 30% to HK$1.81 on speculation Trump will stop, and maybe roll back sanctions.

But until that happens,
Rusal is likely to target sales in alternative markets across the Middle East, Turkey and China
to make up for lost exports to western markets, Morgan Stanley analysts said.

Finally there is the other wildcard: inflation.
As noted above, aluminum and nickel have been driven to multi-year highs as the turmoil unleashed by U.S. sanctions spreads.
On Thursday, aluminum surged to the highest level since 2011, trading at $2,668.50 a ton;
Goldman forecasts prices could surge to $3,000 in the near term as the impact overwhelms the market
and as no new suppliers can ramp up production to take over Rusal's market share.

[TheCount]

Aluminium prices in the United States have soared and are expected to diverge from those traded on the London Metal Exchange after the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Russian producer Rusal (0486.HK).

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1HP1AW

[Swordsmyth]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1HP1AW

That has nothing to do with the tariffs.

[TheCount]

That has nothing to do with the tariffs.

Both the tariffs and the sanctions came from Trump.

[Swordsmyth]

Both the tariffs and the sanctions came from Trump.

One is part of a trade strategy the other is part of an attempt to beat off the Russiaphobia, without the Russiagate witch hunt Trump wouldn't have agreed to the sanction.

[TheCount]

One is part of a trade strategy the other is part of an attempt to beat off the Russiaphobia, without the Russiagate witch hunt Trump wouldn't have agreed to the sanction.

Russiagate is more important than American workers to Trump?

How many jobs will be lost as part of his personal protection strategy?

[Swordsmyth]

Russiagate is more important than American workers to Trump?

How many jobs will be lost as part of his personal protection strategy?

Staying in office to keep doing what he believes is good for the country must be balanced against economic pain, I can't say if he chose the right balance or not.

[TheCount]

Staying in office to keep doing what he believes is good for the country must be balanced against economic pain, I can't say if he chose the right balance or not.

Do you also support his use of war to keep himself in office?

[Swordsmyth]

Do you also support his use of war to keep himself in office?

I didn't say I supported this and I certainly don't support war.

[TheCount]

I didn't say I supported this and I certainly don't support war.

Yes you did.

Staying in office to keep doing what he believes is good for the country must be balanced against economic pain, I can't say if he chose the right balance or not.

If you opposed the concept entirely, you would not be ambivalent.

[Swordsmyth]

Yes you did.





If you opposed the concept entirely, you would not be ambivalent.

You are not usually this stupid, this is zippy level idiocy.
I didn't say I supported it or that I opposed it, if he is thrown out of office his replacement will enact even more sanctions and maybe even start a war with Russia, it is possible that a few sanctions now prevent more later and/or a war, I do not have the necessary information to judge whether he is striking the best balance or not, I oppose the sanctions on principle but most of the blame goes on the RINOs for forcing Trump's hand, I absolutely oppose war and do not believe that it is needed for him to prevent worse things.

[goldenequity]

Palladium Surges 17% In 9 Days On Russian Supply Concerns
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...upply-concerns

Palladium bullion has surged a massive 17% in just nine trading days.
From $895/oz on Friday April 6th to over $1,052/oz today (April 19th).

Palladium has surged on concerns about supply from Russia which is the world's largest producer of palladium
with various estimates of its contribution to total global palladium production ranging from 40% to 50%.

Russia and increasingly unstable South Africa control more than three-quarters of the world’s palladium supply, according to Johnson Matthey.
Global palladium demand outstripped supply by 23 tonnes (25.4 tons) in 2017,
so depleted stocks of this very rare and finite metal were already running low.
Palladium is a key component in the global car industry and this will cause difficulties for international car manufacturers.

========


(Just as an aside... the 'bill' being fasttracked through Russian lawmakers to restrict RE and tech metals has now been 'slowed'
to be voted on.... now set for mid-May.
This was supposedly due to a 'Putin request' to temper the rising rhetoric coming from the Russian lawmakers.
Trump for his part on Monday... put a 'crimp' on the next 'round' of Nikki's policy decisions. )

[Zippyjuan]

https://www.npr.org/2018/04/19/60329...d-consequences

For One California Company, Trump's Tariffs Have Unintended Consequences

In the struggling canned goods industry, Pacific Coast Producers is a survivor, taking some 700,000 tons of fruit grown by California farmers each year and canning it for sale in supermarkets and large institutions such as hospitals.

This year the company, based in Lodi, Calif., is facing another challenge that promises to make turning a profit that much harder: President Trump's tariffs on steel imports.

"That one cost increase is more than half of what we make," says Dan Vincent, the company's president and chief executive.

Pacific Coast Producers' plight underscores some of the unintended consequences of the Trump administration's decision last month to impose 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from other countries. The administration said the tariffs were needed to protect domestic sources of the metals, which are vital for national security.

The tariffs will help steelmakers compete by allowing them to raise their prices, but companies that rely on imported steel products, such as Pacific Coast Producers, will see their costs rise, says Edward Alden, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

"That's why tariffs are a risky strategy in a truly global economy," he says.

He notes that the cost of steel makes up about 20 percent of his company's annual expenses of about $355 million. A 25 percent tariff on steel could thus end up costing the company about $17 million. Its annual profit is about $24 million, he says.

And Vincent points out another irony about the tariffs: Foreign companies that import products such as canned peaches into the United States won't face the same cost increase, because they aren't subject to the tariffs.

"They won't hurt our Chinese competitors at all, because they import a finished good. That's classified as canned peaches. That's not classified as steel. So a steel tariff doesn't apply," Vincent says.

More at link.

[The Rebel Poet]

One is part of a trade strategy the other is part of an attempt to beat off the Russiaphobia, without the Russiagate witch hunt Trump wouldn't have agreed to the sanction.

Ah, of course:
Is Donald Trump Flip Wilson now?

[TheCount]

Is Donald Trump Flip Wilson now?

"The Devil" is probably apt.

Isn't that how pretty much everyone on here would have described a Guiliani / Bolton tag team prior to the rise of Trump Delusion?

[Zippyjuan]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1HP1AW

[Swordsmyth]

The U.S. softened its position on sanctions against Russian metals giant United Co. Rusal, sparking a record plunge in aluminum prices.
For the first time, the U.S. Treasury discussed a path for lifting the sanctions on Rusal, saying it would provide relief if Oleg Deripaska relinquished control. It also extended the deadline for companies to wind down dealings with the Russian aluminum producer by almost five months.
Rusal petitioned to be removed from the sanctions list and Treasury granted the extension while it considers the appeal, according to a statement from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
“Rusal has felt the impact of U.S. sanctions because of its entanglement with Oleg Deripaska, but the U.S. government is not targeting the hardworking people who depend on Rusal and its subsidiaries,” Mnuchin said.
Aluminum plunged in response as traders speculated that supply disruptions could ease. Prices fell as much as 9.4 percent, the most ever. U.S. metal producers also dropped, with Alcoa Inc. sliding 12 percent.

More at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...eripaska-sells

[dannno]

sparking a record plunge in aluminum prices.

People who don't know the future and are anti-Trump really need to stop trying to predict the future.. Well, I mean, they can try and predict the future if they want but they should really refer to it as a prediction rather than a forgone conclusion..

[TheCount]

[devil21]

One company today (Thor, maker of RVs) reported in their earnings that aluminum tariffs are already affecting their bottom line. Raw materials prices rising.

[TheCount]

One company today (Thor, maker of RVs) reported in their earnings that aluminum tariffs are already affecting their bottom line. Raw materials prices rising.

It's entirely possible and, I think, likely that we will lose more technical, better paying jobs related to the production of finished goods at companies like Thor in order to create a small number of jobs which are related to raw material production. That's taking an economic and developmental step backwards.