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Thread: Today - Italian General Election

  1. #1

    Default Today - Italian General Election

    Poll will close at 5pm EST.

    There are four main parties:
    -Democratic Party (the main leftist party, like our Democrats, governing incumbents)
    -Forza Italia (the main fake conservative party, like our Republicans)
    -Lega Nord (Italy's version of the alt-right, coalition partners with Forza Italia)
    -Five Star Movement (Italy's version of the bernie bros)

    The incumbent Democrats are expected to lose seats, while the others gain. It is expected that the right coalition (primarily Forza and Lega) will have a plurality of seats, with Five Star coming in second, and the left coalition (primarily the Democrats) coming in third, but with no party or coalition gaining a ruling majority, which will create a lot of political and economic instability.

    Latest polls:

    Dems - 21%
    Forza - 16%
    Lega - 15%
    Five Star - 26%



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  3. #2

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    The major point of interest here, IMO, is that the divide between the four major parties listed above mirrors the political divide in the US. If we had a parliamentary system, I expect the alt-right/Trumper wing of the GOP would end up splitting off into its own party (it might yet), with the Bernie Bros doing the same with respect to the Democratic Party.

    As for the effect of this election on Italy itself, assuming that no on wins a majority, I expect nothing much to change (which is a huge problem, because Italy very much needs change). The surprise outcome would be the right coalition winning, in which still nothing much would change I think, except there'd be an intensification of anti-immigrant/nationalist rhetoric (if not also action), though EU exit is probably off the table.

    Is there any good news within the Italian political scene? Best I can tell, the closest thing to a libertarian party is Italian Radicals, but they're subsumed within a coalition, within another coalition, so I'm not sure that we'll even see their individual results (which would be minuscule in any event). In short, no there's not much in the way of good news in Italian politics.

  4. #3

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    The Trumpbart, Goldman Sachs fellow is unsurprisingly endorsing the know nothings:

    Quote Originally Posted by Bannon
    “Italians often consider themselves provincial in world politics, but this is not so: you are on the crest of the wave, a fundamental test of the power of sovereignty, of what it means in the modern era, and this is exemplified by the issue of migrants,” he said. “All the problems of the Middle East and Africa have been dumped by the EU over Italy and people have had enough, they want their sovereignty. This election is crucial for the global populist movement.”
    http://www.corriere.it/esteri/18_mar...021d6049.shtml

    (english translation of his remarks here)

  5. #4

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    Polls Closed, First Exit Polls Coming Out:

    Chamber of Deputies (lower house)

    Right Coalition (Forza, Lega, et al) 35.5%
    5 Star Movement 30%
    Left Coalition (Democrats et al) 25.6%

    Senate (upper house)

    Right Coalition (Forza, Lega, et al) 36%
    5 Star Movement 30%
    Left Coalition (Democrats et al) 26.6%

    https://www.politico.eu/article/live...ampaign=buffer

  6. #5

    Default

    Italy just changed its electoral law and no one seems to quite understand it, but the consensus is that a party/coalition needs ~40% to govern.

  7. #6

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    Projections by Italian news channel La7 for the Senate, by individual party:

    Forza 14.1%
    Lega 17.3%
    5 Star 33.1%
    Democrats 18.7%

    It's noteworthy that Lega is ahead of Forza.

  8. #7

    Default

    Some Updates:

    -La Pen makes a comment in support of her fellow nationalists

    -Several new projections, showing Lega again ahead of Forza, and a close race between 5 Star and the Right Coalition in both houses

  9. #8

  10. #9

    Default

    Truth is a social construct. 👁👁

  11. #10

    Default

    Potential outcomes

    • Centre-right coalition (Forza Italia/Northern League): This had been touted as a likely option heading into the election. However, that’d been under the assumption that Forza Italia would outperform the Northern League. Since this has not been the case, serious questions have been raised over the possibility of this partnership being formed as Berlusconi (Forza Italia) is unlikely to want to play junior to the Northern League or back its leader Matteo Salvini as a candidate for PM. Therefore, some serious compromises would need to be made in order for this option to go-ahead.
    • Grand coalition (Forza Italia/Democratic Party): Heading into the election, this had been touted as the most likely outcome. However, the below-par performance by the Democratic Party makes this option mathematically difficult without involving the support of one of the more radical parties; an unlikely outcome. Furthermore, the poor performance of the Democratic Party makes the prospect of a centre-left coalition unviable.
    • Populist Government (Five Star/Northern League/Brothers of Italy): Such a coalition would depend on the willingness of the Five Star Movement which at this stage appears to be unlikely (despite a recent softening of their opposition to coalitions) given their anti-establishment views. Furthermore, despite being of the populist mould, the coalition would hold fairly wide-ranging views.
    • Repeat elections: Should all of the above options fail, Italian voters would be sent back to the voting booths in an attempt to break the deadlock. During this period, the current Gentiloni government would operate on a caretaker basis but the ongoing political uncertainty would likely act as a negative to Italian assets.

    * * *

    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...rket-stability
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  12. #11

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    Matteo Renzi Resigns As Democratic Party Leader

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-05/matteo-renzi-will-resign-democratic-party-leader
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  13. #12

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    The big story in all this, I'd say, is that Lega has supplanted Forza as the main "conservative" party.

    i.e. nationalism triumphant

    ...and responsible for governing that mess, which should be entertaining.

    Next election, massive pendulum swing the other way, perhaps a bolshevik-type revolution.
    Last edited by r3volution 3.0; 03-05-2018 at 09:41 PM.

  14. #13

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    The League of 5-Star Gentlemen

    It looks like Five Star Movement will take more than 30% of the final tally, which is a couple of points above where polling had it tracking when the blackout went into effect two weeks ago.
    The bigger result is that of The League (formerly The Northern League) who came off their secessionist mountain and ran hard on a platform of euroskepticism and anti-immigration.
    The most important person in Italian politics right now is The League’s leader, Matteo “The EU can go F&%k itself” Salvini.
    When the final votes are revealed, if The League out-polled Silvio “Establishment Stalking Horse” Berlusconi’s Forza Italia! then he has the hammer in coalition negotiations.
    This is exactly the situation I was hoping for in this election. Because this paves the way for Salvini to pull out of the weak coalition with Berlusconi and form a stronger government with Five Star.
    And at that point the price of Tums in Germany rises sharply on new demand. Because the ‘agita’ over Italy’s untenable banking and debt situation will be enormous.
    But, if you want to know what the real issue is just look at this map of Italian unemployment.

    1% GDP growth is not something to cheer about when you have this kind of capital destruction for half of a country. And with the euro above $1.20, just like Germany wants it, this is only making it harder for Italy to compete in world markets.
    In other words, German strong-euro policy is creating the very election results now creating agita in Berlin.
    Forza Populism!

    Politicians are stupid.
    They don’t know anything about currency, capital flow or substitution effects… except when it feathers their nests. But, when a policy is inconvenient to them they invariably blame ‘the market’ which is another way of saying ‘blaming the people.’
    When the people rise up and vote to end their clown show they cry “Fascism!” or “Populism!”
    But this trend is in place all around Europe and it won’t end here. Next month Hungary goes to the polls. It’s leader Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party have the opportunity to grab a super-majority with coalition members and begin altering the Hungarian constitution to the desires of Hungarians, not the EU.
    Italy just gave Hungary a big boost of adrenaline to do just that. It also gave Poland an assist in resisting Angela Merkel’s crusade to crush Polish sovereignty for the second time by Germany in under a century.
    There comes a point where lying to your people doesn’t work anymore. They can see with their own eyes what’s happening and no amount of gaslighting via polls, economic statistics or Alinsky-style shame tactics works anymore.
    That’s what’s happening in Italy. And that’s the beginning of the end of the European Project.
    Debt Crisis! Dead Ahead!

    Right now the market has been lulled into a false sense of security by the ECB’s manipulation of bond yields via its asset purchasing program, i.e. QE. Five year Italian Credit Default Swap spreads are at a 6-month low thanks to a lack of concern about these election results.
    So far, there has been no knee-jerk reaction but that can and will change if Salvini and Five Star head Luigi Di Maio put their heads together and form a workable coalition.
    Because Italy’s banking system is more functionally insolvent than everyone else’s (by orders of magnitude) there will be a push by the market to resolve this situation.
    For months I’ve been warning you that that all we needed was a trigger to end this counter-trend rally in the euro and firm up the U.S. dollar.
    We’ve seen the rush into the euro while bond yields began rising a few months ago. This is an investor class moving to cash pre-positioning for a chaotic market. We’ll see a bit more of this while these results are digested and there is still hope for a Grand Coalition deal between Berlusconi’s center-right coalition and the failing Democrats.
    But, more likely is what I just laid out above. So, the next step will be the wholesale pulling out of assets from Europe once Salvini rejects a deal from Berlusconi and he and Di Maio form a government.
    And once that occurs, CDS rates will rise, bond yields (already under pressure from a tightening Fed) will rise as well and the next wave of the cycle can begin.
    Salvini knows the euro is the main source of Italy’s pain. He’s said as much. Now here’s the opportunity to heal Italy as a country and bring the North, where The League is strong, and the South, where Five Star is strong, together for an Italy which stands up to the depredations of a voracious EU bureaucracy.
    As I’ve pointed out multiple times, the German people have no desire to bail out Italy. They wouldn’t bail out Greece, a much smaller problem. They just voted for no bail-outs and are marching in the streets against more strain on their social fabric via Merkel’s immigration policy.
    So, the only path forward in Italy’s best interest is Salvini and Di Maio coming together and selling a showdown with Germany over the euro and debt relief. Once they move forward with reforms both Brussels and the IMF will not back the true face of the EU will be shown and I expect an already angry Italy will shift very quickly towards Italeave just like what happened in the U.K. with Brexit.


    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...y-forza-italia
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  15. #14

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    Russia Blamed For Italian Election Outcome

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-06/russia-blamed-italian-election-outcome
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  16. #15

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    In what's probably a nightmare scenario for the millions of Italians who supported left or center-left candidates, Forza Italia leader and former four-time prime minister Silvio Berlusconi has decided to support Matteo Salvini, the candidate of the euroskeptic Northern League, in his attempt to form a government after Euroskeptic and anti-establishment parties performed (once again) far better than expected.
    Italy's March 4 election was widely viewed as a victory for Berlusconi and the other members of his "center-right" coalition with two far-right parties. And now Berlusconi has confirmed that the coalition will unify behind the candidate of the anti-immigrant Norther League.

    Berlusconi's Forza Italia garnered just 14% of the vote compared with 17% for the North Northern League, and the members of the coalition had agreed before the vote to support whoever received the largest share. Before the vote, polls expected Forza Italia to win the largest share of the vote. Still, with a combined 37% of the vote total, the coalition still fell short of the 40% threshold needed to form a government, setting Italy up for a leadership showdown that could last for months.


    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ext-government
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  17. #16

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    The leaders of Italy's main parties failed to form a new government in the first round of talks, the Wall Street Journal reported April 5. Italian President Sergio Mattarella said no party or coalition had the required support to secure a parliamentary majority.

    More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...overnment-fail
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment






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