Stocks Fall as Trump Announces Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum

[specsaregood]

It's a complex issue.

For Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve, a US tariff might expose their pyramid scheme, or make it crumble entirely. A tariff must be fought to the death (of the people calling for a tariff). This will be the establishment position.

For a pure free-trade advocate, you don't want any tariffs at all. Most will oppose it on principle, because it is a tariff that is theoretically under their control. The hope is that other trading partners will drop their tariffs and other hinderances to free trade in return.

But what to do when the trading partners do not reciprocate? This is the issue of "fair trade".

Here is one analogy for fair trade. Imagine the following impossible scenario:

- You and the Federal government are equals.
- The Federal government imposes a tax upon you.
- You don't believe in taxes, so you don't impose any taxes on the Federal government.
- Any time you want, you could impose an equivalent reciprocal tax on the Federal government. Do you ever do it?

Do you believe that having domestic manufacturing ability for Steel, Aluminum and the like is a matter of national security?

[dannno]

My guess is that he’ll reverse on this before it happens.

My guess is not.

Wanna wager?

[Zippyjuan]

Do you believe that having domestic manufacturing ability for Steel, Aluminum and the like is a matter of national security?

We do produce tons of steel ourselves- over 80 million metric tons and import about 35 million. As for it being a security issue, are you concerned that the countries we currently import from could decide to halt shipments in a crisis? Will Canada shut us down? Who do we get it from? (about five percent of our total steel used comes from China)



http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/02/news...ada/index.html

[specsaregood]

We do produce tons of steel ourselves- over 80 million metric tons and import about 35 million.

Yes, and Trumps stated intention for the tariff is to ensure that we keep producing in the years to come.

As for it being a security issue, are you concerned that the countries we currently import from could decide to halt shipments in a crisis? Will Canada shut us down? Who do we get it from? (about five percent of our total steel used comes from China)

I don't know, but I'd figure that when our currency finally implodes I doubt we'll see many shipments inbound. In fact that is when we will need all our manufacturing base we can get, in order to export.

I don't know about Canada and specific foreign countries isn't the important aspect. Yes, I think it is a matter of national security. I think having a manufacturing base in many areas is an issue of national security. I probably would't argue that tariffs are the best way to approach that issue, but if we are going to argue about the tariffs, we should debate it on the merits of its stated intention -- national security.

[Zippyjuan]

Yes, and Trumps stated intention for the tariff is to ensure that we keep producing in the years to come.


I don't know, but I'd figure that when our currency finally implodes I doubt we'll see many shipments. I don't know about Canada and specific foreign countries isn't the important aspect. Yes, I think it is a matter of national security. I think having a manufacturing base in many areas is an issue of national security. I probably would't argue that tariffs are the best way to approach that issue, but if we are going to argue about the tariffs, we should debate it on the merits of its stated intention -- national security.

The angle he has been pushing more is jobs- and tariffs to protect the steel industry will hurt jobs in all the industries which use steel. The net effect will be higher costs and fewer jobs.

The President, meanwhile, continued to press on via Twitter: "Our Steel and Aluminum industries (and many others) have been decimated by decades of unfair trade and bad policy with countries from around the world. We must not let our country, companies and workers be taken advantage of any longer. We want free, fair and SMART TRADE!"

[CaptUSA]

My guess is not.

Wanna wager?

All depends on who the last person in the room with him is, I suppose. Like everything else.

[specsaregood]

The angle he has been pushing more is jobs- and tariffs to protect the steel industry will hurt jobs in all the industries which use steel. The net effect will be higher costs and fewer jobs.

Yes, but nothing there goes to his intent or core reasoning for the tariffs. Perhaps go listen to the conference he had when the issue first came up rather than tweets.

[specsaregood]

Yes, but nothing there goes to his intent or core reasoning for the tariffs. Perhaps go listen to the conference he had when the issue first came up rather than tweets.

HEre are some details:


1962 Trade Expansion Act allows restrictions on imports in the interests of national security, not economics.

[Brian4Liberty]

Do you believe that having domestic manufacturing ability for Steel, Aluminum and the like is a matter of national security?

If we don't have any, what would an enemy bomb?

Obviously industry is important to national security for multiple reasons. And it has been a travesty for decades, especially with regard to technology that has been exported just for the cheap labor overseas.

But this is a different subject than trade alone. The tariff is being proposed for multiple reasons. Trump has long talked about fair trade and past lame trade agreements. Then there is the jobs angle. And now it is proposed as a solution to the national security issue.

I'd say there are better ways to fix the security problem. Government spends a lot of money. They love to hold that money back for all kinds of political reasons, and also government contracts come with many strings. They could easily specify "we will buy these planes, and they will be made 100% domestically".

On the other hand, Obama and his buddy Immelt thought it would be a good idea to export production to China, along with all of the technology to do it. No worries, the Chinese would never use that technology and production capability to build up their own military. And they would never, ever, secretly imbed flaws, backdoors, kill switches, etc.

Now why did China stop purchasing all kinds of US tech? Oh yeah, it's because the US government requires backdoors in everything. But China would never do that.

The progressive globalists prefer the US to be weakened until irrelevant as compared to their future global socialist state. It will be hard for the US to do anything once the entire population is fat, ignorant, lazy, addicted and begging for mommy to take care of them. The plan is on course.

[r3volution 3.0]

Even though they're talking about implementing this as soon as next week, I'm still skeptical.

The protectionist lobby is influential, but the free trade lobby more so (or at least it has been for some decades).

Regardless, The Donald deserves all the odium anyone can heap on him for this idiocy.

[Zippyjuan]

Even though they're talking about implementing this as soon as next week, I'm still skeptical.

The protectionist lobby is influential, but the free trade lobby more so (or at least it has been for some decades).

Regardless, The Donald deserves all the odium anyone can heap on him for this idiocy.

Whatever happens, it won't be instituted next week. This was basically a "pre-announcement" that they intended to levy the tariffs. Next week was supposed to be the actual announcement (and that was looking iffy too). The folks trying to put together the plan were shocked that Trump announced it- they didn't have any idea what they were going to do yet as far as those tariffs.

[r3volution 3.0]

Whatever happens, it won't be instituted next week. This was basically a "pre-announcement" that they intended to levy the tariffs. The folks trying to put together the plan were shocked that Trump announced it- they didn't have any idea what they were going to do yet as far as those tariffs.

I'd also like to know what authority Trump has (or thinks he has) to do this unilaterally.

...which appears to be the plan, as I've heard nothing about any Congressional action.

[Zippyjuan]

Article a couple years ago: https://www.marketplace.org/2016/08/...gy-not-trade-0

Steel's decline was about technology, not trade

“American steel,” Donald Trump intoned while laying out his economic plan in Detroit yesterday. “Steel! American steel! We'll send new skyscrapers soaring all over our country. We will put new American metal into the spine of this nation.”

Trump said he would “put our coal miners and our steel workers back to work!”

The candidate suggested that trade deals and regulation had cost the United States hundreds of thousands of jobs in manufacturing industries like auto, steel and coal. And he suggested that doing away with both would bring those jobs back.

But a look at recent research on the U.S. steel industry shows that when it comes to the decline of American steel industry jobs, globalization and regulation had very little to do with it.

In the four decades beginning in the early 1960s, the steel sector lost 400,000 jobs — a five-fold drop, according to Allan Collard-Wexler, assistant professor at Duke, who examined the history of the industry using detailed census data.

Initially, “we thought this was going to be all about trade,” he said. He was in for a surprise.

Even though jobs disappeared, actual steel output declined by a small amount, roughly 20 percent — nowhere near accounting for the loss in jobs. Steel production wasn’t leaving the United States as much as it was just requiring fewer workers.

“It was increases in the productivity of the steel industry that are generating this huge drop in employment,” said Collard-Wexler.

Specifically, something came along called the minimill – essentially a process for recycling scrap steel and turning it into higher quality steel.

It was more efficient and cheaper. “Recycling steel is a less-intensive process than smelting it from scratch,” he said.

This innovation drove a lot of steel mills out of business. Specifically, the least productive and least efficient mills. The old mills that remained in business were the ones that could produce the highest quality grades of steel.

At the same time, Collard-Wexler said, wages for the remaining steel workers rose significantly. “Steel workers today are much better paid than they were in the past.”

For Margaret McMillan, the story of American steel is a symbol of what has happened throughout the manufacturing economy. “Technology has played a huge role in changes in the manufacturing sector and in other industries as well,” she said. “It’s added value to the economy, consumer goods prices are lower because of technological progress.”

There are sectors that have lost jobs due to trade – textiles for example – and many economists believe growth in Chinese manufacturing in the early 2000s also cost U.S. jobs (though many are skeptical as to whether that damage is ongoing today). But the whole story can’t be told without technology.

[enhanced_deficit]

As long as POTUS and people connected to him did not benefit from this Wall Street move, it should not be called 'inside falling' or 'inside trading'.

[Intoxiklown]

Spending on what? Durable goods? Food? I don't have the numbers in front of me. :/ The way ya weight these figures makes a difference. Pretty interesting, eh?

Yeppers.

I don't recall any specific breakdown, just that the report said consumer spending.

Another thing I found curious was also that no one spoke of any correlation of the Fed's chair Powell speaking to committees both the day Trump announced the tariffs and the following day. A lot of the things he said were pretty much translated by Wall Street as, "The Fed doesn't have your back as much as you'd like". Of course, and I'm sure most all of us can agree to this, there is little doubt that Fed wouldn't run those presses 24/7 if need be to keep things "afloat".

[CaptUSA]

My guess is that he’ll reverse on this before it happens. Might be a good time to get some Boeing or Caterpillar stock on the cheap.

Hmmm... Boeing up 2.34% yesterday; Caterpillar up 3.24%. Hope you took my advice on Friday.


(this was based on the recognition that these new proposed tariffs are probably not going to happen)

[oyarde]

I would consider Cat stock to be highly overvalued . Price / Earnings make it look like a third world country . I would consider it a maybe buy @ 53 1/3 and it is currently @ 153.37 . Been as low as 90 in the past yr.

[oyarde]

Gold up @ 1335 today , yesterday West Texas Light Sweet closed up over 2 percent at 62.57 and Brent Crude up as well , over 65 1/2 . Wholesale gasoline @ 1.93 and Copper at 3.11 . Today , silver up to 16 3/4 and ask has been as high as about 16.95 . Dow at 24.818 with no real sign it will again reach past 26K before the end of April . One yr oil forecast still sits @ 71 .

[Zippyjuan]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/06/amer...iff-plans.html

American aluminum giants urge Trump to change tariff plans


American aluminum producers told President Donald Trump in a letter that they are "deeply concerned" about the effect global tariffs would have on their industry, including jobs.

They offered alternatives, including targeting China.

"We fear that the proposed tariff may do more harm than good," the group said in Monday's letter, which was signed by Heidi Brock, president and CEO of the Aluminum Association. The group represents 114 producers and other companies, including Alcoa, Vulcan and Rio Tinto Alcan, which collectively employ 713,000 workers in the United States.

They urged the president to look at alternatives to his proposed 10 percent tariff on aluminum imports, including a levy targeting China's aluminum industry and an exemption for Canadian, European and other foreign producers.

"Unfortunately, the tariffs proposed will do little to address the fundamental problem of massive aluminum overcapacity in China, while impacting supply chains with vital trading partners who play by the rules," the letter said.

In an email to CNBC, Brock said, "We share the president's goal for a thriving U.S. aluminum industry but a global tariff lets China off [the] hook while hurting our vital trading partners that support U.S. job growth. Aluminum is a unique industry with a specific challenge tied to Chinese overcapacity and any remedy needs to tackle that issue first and foremost."

After Trump announced plans for the tariff on Thursday, Alcoa put out a statement saying the company "appreciated" the attention on the industry, but "vital trading partners" such as Canada should be exemp

[oyarde]

Nikkei up 375 , gold pushed to 1340 . Boeing stock closed today @ 348.92 , which is more than I would pay . If you caught it at a low this past yr of 173 , yesterday would have been a good day to sell . P/E ratio still too high for a stock that expensive ( about 26 ) .