[Split] Who takes the blame for a crash?

[Madison320]

True. By the same token if more people are getting raises and doing well financially, nobody will care about anything that Democrats whine about.

I don't see how that's going to happen. We're sitting on 21 trillion in debt, 4 trillion in QE and 8 years of 0% interest. The collapse is not Trump's fault but since he stupidly took credit for the bubble he's going to get blamed for the collapse. That goes for any of the Trump supporters here who were giving Trump credit for the rise in the market and the low unemployment. They have to give Trump full blame for the crash.

[Cleaner44]

I don't see how that's going to happen. We're sitting on 21 trillion in debt, 4 trillion in QE and 8 years of 0% interest. The collapse is not Trump's fault but since he stupidly took credit for the bubble he's going to get blamed for the collapse. That goes for any of the Trump supporters here who were giving Trump credit for the rise in the market and the low unemployment. They have to give Trump full blame for the crash.

It doesn't matter if you can't see how that is going to happen if it does happen. Debt goes from 5T to 10T to 15T to 20T... round and round she goes and where it stops nobody knows. Hell we could see 40T of debt before Trump leave office. The reality remains that if people feel good about the economy in Nov of 2020, Trump will win. If people are unhappy, he will lose.

Facts about debt and deficits don't matter to 97% of voters.

[dannno]

I don't see how that's going to happen. We're sitting on 21 trillion in debt, 4 trillion in QE and 8 years of 0% interest. The collapse is not Trump's fault but since he stupidly took credit for the bubble he's going to get blamed for the collapse. That goes for any of the Trump supporters here who were giving Trump credit for the rise in the market and the low unemployment. They have to give Trump full blame for the crash.

Uh, that's not true..

Trump did have a lot of positive impact on the economy - businesses have been hiring and moving operations here and they have lower taxes and regulations now. Those are all real, positive things that can be attributed to Trump.

In fact, the reason stated for the downturn is that the economy is doing so well with job growth that they are expecting the interest rates to be increased to put the brakes on..

So whether this is a tipping point or not, I dunno.. but like you said the crash certainly can't be blamed on Trump since it was setup to fall.

[goldenequity]

I don't look at an economic crash as market driven or even market derived.
If it crashes it's because 'they' are throwing the levers or pulling the 'stops'.
The 'plunge protection team' days told us everything we needed to know.
My guess?
It's a message.. to Trump and Mnuchin/Treasury targeting the 'dark fortunes' in the recent executive order.
It's blowback and a warning.
'Triggering' all the computerized 'sell offs' today is child's play for them.
Just my opinion... can't prove a thing. imo.. it's ALWAYS at a 'tipping point'.

My days of day trading currencies are over.
It was 'fun' in 2000-2003/4/5...
400:1 leverage/straddling economic data release/no signal delay/hedging/stops that actually worked etc...

[Madison320]

Uh, that's not true..

Trump did have a lot of positive impact on the economy - businesses have been hiring and moving operations here and they have lower taxes and regulations now. Those are all real, positive things that can be attributed to Trump.

In fact, the reason stated for the downturn is that the economy is doing so well with job growth that they are expecting the interest rates to be increased to put the brakes on..

So whether this is a tipping point or not, I dunno.. but like you said the crash certainly can't be blamed on Trump since it was setup to fall.

Heads you win, Tails I lose! So according to you Trump should get credit for the market going up and Obama should get credit when it goes down? LOL!

Lower taxes does no good if you don't lower spending. All of the stuff you are talking about is meaningless compared to spending.

[dannno]

Heads you win, Tails I lose!

Nah, just short term vs. long term, basic economics.

If you tell businesses they are going to get lower taxes and less regulations they are going to invest more in their operations. If you deliver on those promises it will be sustainable. Both happened to some extent, and to that extent Trump is responsible for an improving economy and more jobs.

But the bigger pictures we see a lot of debt and money printing that has yet to be realized and factored into the economy, and we know Trump isn't responsible for that.

[Madison320]

Nah, just short term vs. long term, basic economics.

If you tell businesses they are going to get lower taxes and less regulations they are going to invest more in their operations. If you deliver on those promises it will be sustainable. Both happened to some extent, and to that extent Trump is responsible for an improving economy and more jobs.

But the bigger pictures we see a lot of debt and money printing that has yet to be realized and factored into the economy, and we know Trump isn't responsible for that.

Trump is not responsible for the old debt and money printing but he is for the future. He's cutting taxes and raising spending. He appointed dovish Jerome Powell to head the Federal Reserve.

Trump should not have been bragging about the market he should have been warning about it. Duh.

[nikcers]

Trump is not responsible for the old debt and money printing but he is for the future. He's cutting taxes and raising spending. He appointed dovish Jerome Powell to head the Federal Reserve.

Trump should not have been bragging about the market he should have been warning about it. Duh.

That debt is growing as Trump prioritizes building more bombs to drop on the middle east and bragging about the market instead of balancing the budget and getting rid of the debt. President Trump isn't candidate Trump, and that interest rate is a farce and the real correction may be coming soon, Trump will be responsible if he doesn't try to stop it. Trump isn't a patsy he is complicit, he is part of the problem.

“No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it's not the same river and he's not the same man.”-Heraclitus

[Madison320]

That debt is growing as Trump prioritizes building more bombs to drop on the middle east and bragging about the market instead of balancing the budget and getting rid of the debt. President Trump isn't candidate Trump, and that interest rate is a farce and the real correction may be coming soon, Trump will be responsible if he doesn't try to stop it. Trump isn't a patsy he is complicit, he is part of the problem.

I agree although if Trump were to actually do the right thing and cut spending and raise rates he'd crash the economy into depression. But we'd come out of it with a healthy economy. Instead he's just trying to keep the bubble going like Obama and Bush.

[nikcers]

I agree although if Trump were to actually do the right thing and cut spending and raise rates he'd crash the economy into depression. But we'd come out of it with a healthy economy. Instead he's just trying to keep the bubble going like Obama and Bush.

That's bull$#@! the economy would be doing better if we allowed it to correct. While Trump is doing a good job isolating us from the world we are still too big to fail. People still give us credit, we wouldn't lose that credit if we started to be fiscally responsible it would maybe help our credit. One of the reasons why the United States credit score got downgraded was because of this, and the sequester was a result, Trump wants to get rid of all sequesters, he has made his intentions clear.

[Schifference]

That's bull$#@! the economy would be doing better if we allowed it to correct. While Trump is doing a good job isolating us from the world we are still too big to fail. People still give us credit, we wouldn't lose that credit if we started to be fiscally responsible it would maybe help our credit. One of the reasons why the United States credit score got downgraded was because of this, and the sequester was a result, Trump wants to get rid of all sequesters, he has made his intentions clear.

That doesn't work with the mid-term narrative that everyone is doing better and has more money, Vote Republican!!

[nikcers]

That doesn't work with the mid-term narrative that everyone is doing better and has more money, Vote Republican!!

Its not partisan at all! For months, I have seen partisans of all stripe walk around like they are hypnotized talking about how great the economy and stock market is doing, but when I talk about specifics they go blank and can't defend their phoney alchemy.

[acptulsa]

I agree although if Trump were to actually do the right thing and cut spending and raise rates he'd crash the economy into depression. But we'd come out of it with a healthy economy. Instead he's just trying to keep the bubble going like Obama and Bush.

That's bull$#@! the economy would be doing better if we allowed it to correct.

First Madison accuses dannno of saying, 'Heads I win tails you lose,' and dannno says that's not true, his actual argument was, 'Tails I win, heads you lose.'

Then Madison says the economy would be better off if we allowed the bubble to burst, and allowed a natural recovery to happen. And he gets told that's bull$#@!, that the best thing for it would actually be a correction.

Madison, I don't quite understand how your 'lies' magically become truths when someone else parrots them. Have you ever tried speaking a lie into a tape recorder, to see if it's the truth when it's replayed?

[Madison320]

First Madison accuses dannno of saying, 'Heads I win tails you lose,' and dannno says that's not true, his actual argument was, 'Tails I win, heads you lose.'

Then Madison says the economy would be better off if we allowed the bubble to burst, and allowed a natural recovery to happen. And he gets told that's bull$#@!, that the best thing for it would actually be a correction.

Madison, I don't quite understand how your 'lies' magically become truths when someone else parrots them. Have you ever tried speaking a lie into a tape recorder, to see if it's the truth when it's replayed?

Yeah, I'm giving up, I have no idea what they are talking about. I thought my point was pretty simple. Basic Ron Paul free market economics 101.

[nikcers]

Yeah, I'm giving up, I have no idea what they are talking about. I thought my point was pretty simple. Basic Ron Paul free market economics 101.

Doing the right thing won't cause the economy to crash, in fact it might stop the economy from crashing. This is a false narrative to perpetuate phoney alchemist's economic policies... They can't do proper ecnomics because it will crash the economy and then the democrats will take over..

[acptulsa]

Doing the right thing won't cause the economy to crash...

Where did you get that idea?

One, a correction is a crash. Those things are the same things. Achieving some sort of normalcy is clearly the right thing to do, but in the short term, that means bubbles popping.

Two, doing the right thing will cause the evil to wreak all the havoc they can, and the ignorant to do things that aren't helpful too. How do you propose to prevent that?

Ron Paul never promised us a rose garden. He told us doing the right thing would surely lead to a crash. The reason we would want to do that is so we can rebuild on a foundation if sound money, which would result in a more stable prosperity that reaches more people than just the one percent.

[nikcers]

Where did you get that idea?

One, a correction is a crash. Those things are the same things. Achieving some sort of normalcy is clearly the right thing to do, but in the short term, that means bubbles popping.

Two, doing the right thing will cause the evil to wreak all the havoc they can, and the ignorant to do things that aren't helpful too. How do you propose to prevent that?

Ron Paul never promised us a rose garden. He told us doing the right thing would surely lead to a crash. The reason we would want to do that is so we can rebuild on a foundation if sound money, which would result in a more stable prosperity that reaches more people than just the one percent.

2008 was a correction that I wouldn't qualify as a crash. We actually staved off a further credit downgrade by passing the sequester.

[acptulsa]

2008 was a correction that I wouldn't qualify as a crash.

This does not put you in the majority. You might take into account that some odd 97% of the population uses a different definition of 'crash' than you do.

That is, if you want what you say to be understood.

[nikcers]

This does not put you in the majority. You might take into account that some odd 97% of the population uses a different definition of 'crash' than you do.

That is, if you want what you say to be understood.

The real crash is what happens when we keep doing what we are doing and that is not going to be pretty. You think some people losing their house is a crash that's laughable.

[acptulsa]

The real crash is what happens when we keep doing what we are doing and that is not going to be pretty. You think some people losing their house is a crash that's laughable.

The real crash is when you roll your Ford Exploder down an embankment and it blows up and burns for seven hours. If you think backing into a parking lot light post is a crash, that's laughable.

Maybe. But if you don't take into account that many people use the word just that way, you will be misunderstood.

[Zippyjuan]

Uh, that's not true..

Trump did have a lot of positive impact on the economy - businesses have been hiring and moving operations here and they have lower taxes and regulations now. Those are all real, positive things that can be attributed to Trump.

In fact, the reason stated for the downturn is that the economy is doing so well with job growth that they are expecting the interest rates to be increased to put the brakes on..

So whether this is a tipping point or not, I dunno.. but like you said the crash certainly can't be blamed on Trump since it was setup to fall.

All trends which started about 2010 under Obama.

[Madison320]

I just wanted to clarify something here. My position is that we're overdue for an economic crash no matter what Trump does. The total debt is 21 trillion. Rates have been historically low for 9 years. We've printed over 4 trillion. You don't have to be an economist to know that all that stimulus has to lead to a massive withdrawal.

The trigger for the crash is going to be rising interest rates. If we do the right thing and remove the artificial support for low interest rates and shrink government, rates will rise and crash the economy, but at least we won't have high/hyperinflation. If we do the wrong thing and keep the artificial support for low rates, but increase government, rates are going to rise DESPITE the artificial attempts to keep rates low, and that's going to crash the economy AND the dollar.

The problem is that Trump has chosen plan B.

[dannno]

The problem is that Trump has chosen plan B.

Sounds good for bitcoin.

[enhanced_deficit]

Some were saying it is due to high use of volatility products in recent years.

Some conspiracy theorists were saying it started on same day first christian federal reserve chairman in decades was appointed. Don't see credible cause n effect relation there.

[Zippyjuan]

Some were saying it is due to high use of volatility products in recent years.

Some conspiracy theorists were saying it started on same day first christian federal reserve chairman in decades was appointed. Don't see credible cause n effect relation there.

Like alcohol?

[timosman]

Like alcohol?

Nice try Zippy. The company policy is no drinks on weekends. Can you hold till Monday?

[Krugminator2]

All trends which started about 2010 under Obama.

Obama was terrible for the economy. The recession ended in March of 2009 right after he took office and economic growth was slower under Obama than any post WWII President. Steep downturns should lead to steep recoveries. It didn't happen.

Obama's increased taxes (like the Medicare NIIT tax and raising the top rate) and his out of control regulatory agencies harmed the economy. Increased tax and regulation are the last thing you do in an economic downturn. Obama gets a D- on the economy. I give him a D- and not an F because the Sequester happened by accident under his Presidency. Name one policy that he did that was helpful for economic growth. What? Cash for Clunkers? That goofy homeowners credit?

[Zippyjuan]

Obama was terrible for the economy. The recession ended in March of 2009 right after he took office and economic growth was slower under Obama than any post WWII President. Steep downturns should lead to steep recoveries. It didn't happen.

Obama's increased taxes (like the Medicare NIIT tax and raising the top rate) and his out of control regulatory agencies harmed the economy. Increased tax and regulation are the last thing you do in an economic downturn. Obama gets a D- on the economy. I give him a D- and not an F because the Sequester happened by accident under his Presidency. Name one policy that he did that was helpful for economic growth. What? Cash for Clunkers? That goofy homeowners credit?

The sequester was written by the Republican Congress- not the president. They were also the ones who increased taxes- they, not the president, write spending and taxation bills. A president can only sign or veto the bill- not write or change it. Presidents get both too much blame and too much credit for what happens in the economy. Trump too is trying to take credit he does not deserve for how the economy is performing.

[Krugminator2]

The sequester was written by the Republican Congress- not the president.

That's true. The Republicans do deserve 99% of the credit for the Sequester. But President Obama could have vetoed it but he didn't because he thought it would never come into fruition. He did not believe Republicans would allow an across the board cut, which fell heavily on military bases, to happen. It did. So I raised his letter grade up one pip to D-.

They were also the ones who increased taxes- they, not the president, write spending and taxation bills. A president can only sign or veto the bill- not write or change it. Presidents get both too much blame and too much credit for what happens in the economy. Trump too is trying to take credit he does not deserve for how the economy is performing

Obama vetoed an extension of the Bush tax cuts or they somehow sunset. You think the Republican Congress wanted to raise taxes? They weren't permanent, so of course he is to blame for that tax hike. The NIIT was part of Obamacare. It literally has his name in the title. OBAMAcare. I feel like he bares the responsibility for that tax hike. He did sign it into law.

And the regulatory agencies that increased regulations were his appointees. He wanted those increase in regulations just Trump gets the credit for the cuts in regulation.

[timosman]

The sequester was written by the Republican Congress- not the president. They were also the ones who increased taxes- they, not the president, write spending and taxation bills. A president can only sign or veto the bill- not write or change it. Presidents get both too much blame and too much credit for what happens in the economy. Trump too is trying to take credit he does not deserve for how the economy is performing.

I am curious what is the expected IQ of the demographic you are trying to target with this nonsense. It can't be above 99.