Over three years ago, when the full extent of the student debt crisis was becoming apparent, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee released a startling analysis and long-term forecast which showed two things: i) up to a third of all student loans are likely to end up unrepaid...
... and ii) the total amount total student loans, which currently amount to $1.48 trillion (nearly 50% more than all the credit card debt in America), is set to hit a whopping $3.3 trillion by 2024.
Fast forward to this week, when a Brookings Institution report offered a new set of dire observations suggesting that "the looming student default crisis is worse than we thought."
The analysis "suggests that nearly 40% of borrowers may default on their student loans by 2023," a staggering number if one assumes the TBAC's forecast that there will be roughly $2.5 trillion in student loans outstanding by 2020 (see chart above). It would mean that no less than $1 trillion in student loans will be in some form of default in two years, an outcome which will necessitate another indirect, if ultimately taxpayer funded bailout from the US treasury: recall that the vast majority of student debt is currently issued by the US government.
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