A thousand times, this^^^^^^Originally Posted by devil21
And yet computers are learning every day to do just that....replace "real" translators. I put real in quotes because trying to define real relating to this subject can get real sticky.LOLOLOLGoogle translate still $#@!s up basic $#@! like verb tenses EVEN WITH FULL CONTEXT. I've also seen numerous occasions of computer translators mixing up word order. Language is so human and "messy" I don't believe computers will be able to meaningfully replace real translators.
Again, you and others aren't understanding what AI is. It's a broad term, not a specific one. We are FAST closing in on AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) which is an AI system that can think like a human mind. You're using ANI (Artificial Narrow Intelligence) as the basis for your assertion. This is like telling someone their 18 month infant is a retard because they can't write and speak Latin.
"Self conquest is the greatest of all victories." - Plato
I hate to get all "sci-fi", but I agree with you. We are by nature curious and exploratory, and that combined with the tech advances we're in the middle of is where I see our next phase of "what to do" come together. Advanced AI systems will allow our scientific research and understanding of physics to really escalate, and I don't see why it won't lead to advances in applying theoretical physics to working reality. More so speaking to solving power issues with propulsion systems we already know can exist and work, and opening up space to us commercially.
"Self conquest is the greatest of all victories." - Plato
And what of human liberty and freedom?
Brother, I hope you are right and I am wrong, but I just don't see it.
At any rate, have a happy Thanksgiving.
Exactly.
Man does his best work when faced with adversity and risk.
This future we've built is based on doing nothing but eliminating risk and adversity.
oic. I'd like to see real proof that AI can imitate the language center of the brain. The most recent linguistic science I'm aware of hasn't been able to find AI/AGI that can truly recreate the brain's language center. (the things can do some cool parlor tricks, tho)
If you had said, "I want you to picture a man whose job is "emoji translator", I would have pictured that guy in my mind, except he has a man-bun.
Then you're not up to date.
Google's Deep Learning is a basic digital neocortex, and it learns patterns in sounds, images, ect. The exact same way you learned as a child to understand your environment and the language being spoken and taught to you. This VERY basic AI system is the main driver behind all the smooth operating systems of things like Siri or voice software on smartphones.
And Google's Deep Mind is an ANI system. So again, this is exactly like the infant anecdote. Is an 8 month old saying "dada" a cool parlor trick? Or is it that child learning? And if it's learning, how is it different from the way the AI systems are learning? Did your parents and environment not program you?
The biggest hindrance to AI advancement has been lack of computational power, but those road blocks are falling daily. It's that computational advance that has opened eyes to the realization that AGI is about to happen, and it will recreate your language center. Honestly, it'll surpass your language center because it'll be able to think and take in data at speeds our brains could never match.
Look, I know this subject gets into some Frankenstein $#@!. The morality of it is part of the reason I got out of automation robotics, because I realized my job was predicated on a success rate of how many people I could put out of work. I get torn with AI because part of gets like a kid when I step back and look at broadly at what kind of technologies this is going to open up to us. But I also get the feeling of "someone walking over my grave" when I realize the technologies this will open up to us. And I would say this to make you step back and take an objective look....people said the same thing about heart transplants and breaking the sound barrier to name a couple. They were fantasy, dangerous, and even an afront to God. But they happened. And this is going to happen. It's already happening.
AI will be a HUGE boon to home schoolers, as it will give the best in personalized learning. Combining AI with Immersive technology is going to educate our children in ways we never could. So it's not all bad nor scary.
"Self conquest is the greatest of all victories." - Plato
Thnx. Nah, that has happened since my formal linguistics studies so I didn't know of it. Tech tends to develop faster than formal education can keep up with it in many fields. :/ There are still lots of job agencies, boards, and freelance opportunities in my field, so for the short term at least I'm not too worried.~hugs~
I'm hip.Thnx. Nah, that has happened since my formal linguistics studies so I didn't know of it. Tech tends to develop faster than formal education can keep up with it in many fields. :/ There are still lots of job agencies, boards, and freelance opportunities in my field, so for the short term at least I'm not too worried.
And yeah, the field is advancing at a seriously scary pace. It's kind of self feeding/enabling in that as computational power grows, AI capability increases, which facilitates increases in computational power, which increases AI capability, and so forth.
And yeah, by no means do I mean to come across as something like "your job is gone tomorrow"...lol. But honestly? Best case scenario.....10 years. But more probable is 5 years. The 5 to 10 year variance will depend on how fast our current breakthroughs in quantum computing evolve. My wife is already seeing AI systems used in the hospital she works. The system is current on all research, papers, FDA approvals, medical discoveries, and constantly updates itself. It hasn't replaced the hands on diagnostics from doctors, but is used more as a tool to help diagnose and insure best possible treatment. But it's caused my wife to take a more technical interest in what I used to do because she's realizing that we're not far at all from systems like that used in conjunction with robotics replacing the bulk f medical personnel and leaving the doctor as more of a "systems engineer" to oversee.
"Self conquest is the greatest of all victories." - Plato
Sorry, I haven't been around much lately to respond to this...
If you only look at things in a static world, it's easy to be fearful, but if you understand human dynamics, you can see the bad and the good. Let me try to show you how it could lead to more liberty. (remember, I said "try")
First, traffic laws - in today's world, the police state uses traffic laws to perform all manner of violations of liberty. With self-driving vehicles, many of the road regulations that we have today will disappear. Stop lights, speed limit signs, unsafe lane changes, reckless driving, failure to yield... they all go away. And with them, the men in blue who enforce traffic violations. Red-light cameras?? There won't even be red lights to hang them on. This also works for pedestrians (check out shared space zones and amplify it with self-driving cars), no more jaywalking...
Next, mobility - there are many people who are unable to drive today and their freedom of movement is very limited. Young, old, sick, and those without a "license" have difficulty getting around. Taxis and buses are not everywhere. Even able-bodied people spend a crazy amount of time shuttling their kids from soccer to piano lessons, etc. Ordering up a vehicle to take you where you want to go will open up a whole new world to people. You don't need an able. licensed driver to waste his time to take you some place - his productivity will be used elsewhere. And think about the ability to travel while under the influence of whatever you want - you are no longer a danger to people.
Licensing - in today's world, a driver's license is used for damn near everything. But that will change when people stop driving. I'm sure there will still be some kind of ID (they'll never let you go unidentified), but it won't be a driver's license that you have to pass a government test for and pay to maintain.
Roads - why do we need governments? Roads, of course. This has been the libertarian bugaboo for ages. But when the majority of vehicles on the roads are maintained by corporation fleets, they have the incentive to maintain the roadways themselves in order to keep their vehicles damage-free. Road-building and maintenance will be baked into the costs of dialing up a car - not your taxes.
Insurance - When the cars are driving themselves, it's the company that owns the car that needs the insurance - not you.
Automobile regulations:
In other words, despite the doom and gloom, there are ups and downs to everything. It's all a matter of your perspective.
Last edited by CaptUSA; 12-08-2017 at 12:08 PM.
"And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works." - Bastiat
"It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere." - Voltaire
Yes, let's do that...
The shift will be to mulct the population with drive by mile fees.First, traffic laws - in today's world, the police state uses traffic laws to perform all manner of violations of liberty. With self-driving vehicles, many of the road regulations that we have today will disappear. Stop lights, speed limit signs, unsafe lane changes, reckless driving, failure to yield... they all go away. And with them, the men in blue who enforce traffic violations. Red-light cameras?? There won't even be red lights to hang them on. This also works for pedestrians (check out shared space zones and amplify it with self-driving cars), no more jaywalking...
This will never happen.Next, mobility - there are many people who are unable to drive today and their freedom of movement is very limited. Young, old, sick, and those without a "license" have difficulty getting around. Taxis and buses are not everywhere. Even able-bodied people spend a crazy amount of time shuttling their kids from soccer to piano lessons, etc. Ordering up a vehicle to take you where you want to go will open up a whole new world to people. You don't need an able. licensed driver to waste his time to take you some place - his productivity will be used elsewhere. And think about the ability to travel while under the influence of whatever you want - you are no longer a danger to people.
You will still be required to maintain a state of "cat like readiness" at all times, and you still will be required to be licensed in some way.
No drinking, no reading your kindle, no FedBooking, no fellatio, no fun of any kind.
Sure there will. The groundwork is already laid for that with TWIC. The worst of both worlds, mandatory inclusion in a comprehensive government snoop check and and ID database, at a cost triple to quadruple that of government issued DL, all paid not to government, but directly to the military surveillance complex.Licensing - in today's world, a driver's license is used for damn near everything. But that will change when people stop driving. I'm sure there will still be some kind of ID (they'll never let you go unidentified), but it won't be a driver's license that you have to pass a government test for and pay to maintain.
Meh, never really cared much about the "muh roads" argument.Roads - why do we need governments? Roads, of course. This has been the libertarian bugaboo for ages. But when the majority of vehicles on the roads are maintained by corporation fleets, they have the incentive to maintain the roadways themselves in order to keep their vehicles damage-free. Road-building and maintenance will be baked into the costs of dialing up a car - not your taxes.
Insurance - When the cars are driving themselves, it's the company that owns the car that needs the insurance - not you.
Rather have one government monopoly that at least I have a slight bit of impact on, than a corporate oligarchy.
Think any corporation, scared to death of litigation, is gonna let me ride my motorcycle without a helmet on their roads?
More people, with more technology, crowded into more city, means less freedom.In other words, despite the doom and gloom, there are ups and downs to everything. It's all a matter of your perspective.
Always.
This sounds like a good episode of "Black Mirror".
-Major General Smedley Butler, USMC,There are only two things we should fight for. One is the defense of our homes and the other is the Bill of Rights. War for any other reason is simply a racket.
Two-Time Congressional Medal of Honor Winner
Author of, War is a Racket!
- Diogenes of SinopeIt is not that I am mad, it is only that my head is different from yours.
As a homeschooler, I must agree with you here. Current models of educational instruction were meant to meet the demands of the 19th century and industrialization. Basically an assembly line model to crank 'worker bees' into the broader economy. It simply won't suffice for the 21st century. We literally have the entire cumulative knowledge of human history at our very fingertips... all we need is custom methods of delivery to our children in order to create a highly advanced level of instruction. I am as excited as I am scared for the future my children are growing up in. I am charged with educating them for a world that NO ONE knows what it will be like.
-Major General Smedley Butler, USMC,There are only two things we should fight for. One is the defense of our homes and the other is the Bill of Rights. War for any other reason is simply a racket.
Two-Time Congressional Medal of Honor Winner
Author of, War is a Racket!
- Diogenes of SinopeIt is not that I am mad, it is only that my head is different from yours.
Exactly! This is where I am as well. Although, I've gotten pretty good at ignoring my fears and concentrating on my excitations. Life is more fun that way.
"And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works." - Bastiat
"It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere." - Voltaire
Another benefit of self driving, remote controlled electric car pods:
When that happens in the future, the command from "authority" will direct your self driving car pod to immediately pull over at the nearest safe space and shut down until the weather crisis is declared all clear by "authorities".
Regardless of it being "safe" or not, nor with any regard to your getting back home.
Stuck at the airport, every day.
I, for one, can't wait for that.
A savage barbaric tribal society where thugs parade the streets and illegally assault and murder innocent civilians, yeah that is the alternative to having police. Oh wait, that is the police
We cannot defend freedom abroad by deserting it at home.
- Edward R. Murrow
...I think we have moral obligations to disobey unjust laws, because non-cooperation with evil is as much as a moral obligation as cooperation with good. - MLK Jr.
How to trigger a liberal: "I didn't get vaccinated."
Automated = Slow
https://www.ericpetersautos.com/2017...utomated-slow/
By eric - December 12, 201715648
How fast will automated cars go? Will it take you longer – or less – to get where you want to go?
The answer to those questions can be discovered by taking a ride on a city bus or any other government-run public conveyance
They all operate at Least Common Denominator Speed – which will be the defining parameter for automated vehicles. For the same reason that a government-run train (DC’s Metro, for instance) accelerates very gradually, so as not to upset the fearful, the old, small children. When it stops it does so in the same manner. Gradually, with great caution for the equilibrium of the average. It will sometimes just sit. For no apparent reason.
And then, you wait.
Other examples include elevators and escalators. Or commercial aviation, for that matter. They could all go much faster in terms of the technology but don’t because they must accommodate the average person.
The below-average person.
Automated cars will be programmed similarly. This is not hypothetical. They already are.
If you’ve had a chance to drive a new car equipped with automated technology such as Emergency Automated Braking or Lane Keep Assist you will have had a taste of The Future of Transportation. The possibility that it might become necessary to brake becomes the actuality of braking, every time – because computers are programmed and don’t do nuance.
The sensors detect an object in the vehicle’s intended path – such as a car up ahead that appears to be stopped but is actually in the process of turning off. Computers – being programmed, reactive things – cannot intuit that the driver isn’t stopped in the middle of the road and that car will be out of your vehicle’s intended path by the time you get there.
Hence, no need to stab the brakes.
You wouldn’t. The computer will.
These systems do the same when they decide you’ve cut a pass too close. Or are trying to. It isn’t actually too close. It’s just too close for the embedded parameters that govern the system. Which – keep in mind – will be laid down according to the fiat of a programmer. Or more exactly, will be laid down according to the fiat of the same joy-sucking, initiative-stomping bureaucrats who currently posit absurdly low speed limits, prohibit perfectly safe U turns and rights-on-red.
Believe me. Hear me. I – in my role as a car journalist – have experienced this in multiple new cars saddled with bits and pieces of the all-controlling technology that is Our Future -unless we somehow put the kibosh on it.
Automated systems such as Emergency Automated Braking, Pedestrian Detection and Lane Keep Assist are programmed to over-react out of a super-abundance of Cloverian caution – not unlike your aging mother-in-law, who won’t even make a legal right on red unless there isn’t another car within a quarter-mile of hers and then only if pestered to make it . Who begins to slow down a quarter mile before she gets to her turn – and then practically stops in the middle of the road before actually making her turn.
Once all cars have this peremptorily programmed mother-in-law under the hood, the automated cars behind hers will also dutifully brake.
None would think of going around her – as you might, in your autonomous car – because automated cars don’t think and besides that would be illegal and the controlling intelligence is no longer yours but the embedded programming.
The automated car will not stray out of its lane, cross the double yellow to pass a herd of Lance Armstrong wannabees or come to a rolling stop at a vacant intersection, in order to avoid wasting time and fuel. All the foregoing would require situational judgment, the weighing of pros and cons – which the programming isn’t capable of exercising. If the automated car is confronted with a situation outside its parameters, it will simply stop. Like the automated Chevy Bolt GM rolled out in San Francisco last week. It encountered a double-parked taco truck, which flummoxed the automated know-it-all.
So it just parked itself.
The GM car still had a steering wheel and human-control could intervene. But what happens when the steering wheel and human control are taken out of the equation?
All automated cars will queue up at the same (slow) pace.
None shall pass. Ever again.
The taco truck-bedazzled Bolt “never mov(ed) faster than 20 miles per hour . . . (and) reacted more conservatively than a human driver, for example slowing to a near-stop after sensing a bike approaching in the opposite lane.”
Punching the gas to blast past a road Clover could become as distant a memory as the catalytic converter test pipe.
Automation of cars will mean the end of ebb and flow. No room for the exercise of individual judgment. No going faster than the herd. No stepping out of the queue.
Once you’re in – you’re in. Like riding the Metro.
This idea that we’ll all be conveyed from A to B by a computerized Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is as preposterous as the idea of an efficient and speedy DMV. Everything the government does is necessarily one-size-fits all.
Being caged in an automated car will be like having to wait behind old people on escalators. The Automated cars of Our Future will have to function this way if only for liability reasons. You can’t hold the occupant of an automated car responsible for what the programming does. So the default program will be: Slow, overcautious, herd-like and – whenever a situation arises that requires a split second judgment call – it will be decided on hewing to the letter of the law, no matter how irrelevant to the actual situation; on the basis of risk-avoidance, no matter how remote or improbable.
The one comfort – if it is one – will be that you’ll be allowed to keep yourself perpetually distracted by watching videos on YouTube or gabbling on the phone.
Where's the bathroom in this thing?Being caged in an automated car will be like having to wait behind old people on escalators. The Automated cars of Our Future will have to function this way if only for liability reasons. You can’t hold the occupant of an automated car responsible for what the programming does. So the default program will be: Slow, overcautious, herd-like...
Don't need a weather man to know which way the wind blows
How fast do you need to go when the range of travel is limited to a 10 mile radius within city limits? That's where this goes.
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
pick a year.
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Pick a year for what? For when human pilots will be replaced? Any guess I give will be in windows of 20 years, so nothing to write home about. You have to understand that previous concerns weren't valid due to lacking accompanying tech like computational power. That hurdle is shrinking daily, and as it progresses so does AI's potential. And as AI's potential grows, so does computing power possibilities. And so on and so on.
Will it be in 3 years? 5? 10?
Who knows. 10 years would be indicative of some massive jumps for it to happen that fast, and by happen I am speaking to infant steps of beginning implementation. But by the time 2040-2050...that window is here....it's more cynical to say it won't happen than it will. The main thing holding back AGI right now is waiting for true quantum computing to be achieved. Once that happens, things will move at a blur. But AI can't mature into it's full possibilities until it can be given the computational power it needs to evolve.
"Self conquest is the greatest of all victories." - Plato
Was doing some reading, and came across an article that made me think of you. It deals with tech and your field specifically, as well as talks to issues they are having to overcome. I thought you might enjoy it.Thnx. Nah, that has happened since my formal linguistics studies so I didn't know of it. Tech tends to develop faster than formal education can keep up with it in many fields. :/ There are still lots of job agencies, boards, and freelance opportunities in my field, so for the short term at least I'm not too worried.
Excerpt from article:
Despite their growing popularity, apps and services such as these have come to criticism for their inability to accurately infer the meaning of what is being said. Humans often use context to determine the meaning of words, and consider how individual words interact with each other. These combinations are in constant change owing to evolving human creativity.
The latest technologies offer the most viable solution yet. UK-based startup Mymanu is deploying “smart” earbuds to make conversations in multiple languages easier with the Clik.
Clik earbuds contain a microphone and microprocessor that does the “brain” work, and promises to translate 37 different languages in real time. The ear bud analyses an entire sentence in order to “understand” the context of what is being said and issue an appropriate interpretation. It’s understood the maximum waiting time for translation is 5-10 seconds.
While translation technology no longer fails as often as it used to and may eventually replace translators for the more mundane (or less nuanced) tasks where “good enough” is good enough, the tech still seems to be lacking the human element.
Link: http://www.digitalistmag.com/future-...428?cp=4870428
A link to the article covering the earbuds they discuss if you're interested:
Article excerpt:
So how does it work? Once you've got your buds and grabbed the Mymanu companion smartphone app you'll be able to download 9 language packs. These contain the 37 different languages including French, Spanish and Japanese. These can be synced and stored on the truly wireless in-ears.
Once you've chosen what language you want to hear it will automatically detect the language being spoken and doesn't require any data connection. If you're speaking to somebody that's in another country or you're on a conference call where several different people are speaking different languages, then you'll need to use the cloud to provide the translation.
Link: https://www.wareable.com/hearables/m...ice-specs-3753
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"Self conquest is the greatest of all victories." - Plato
Interesting! Kurwa!I personally work primarily in literary translation, tho. Interpreting is something I won't be good enough to do for a while yet. This poses a slew of challenges for computers. Since it lacks the context of voice inflection and whatnot, the translator has to use some literary skill as well as translating skill. I'm sure you've read a slavish translation of something in your life-it's tedious and painful, amirite? That's why ya need a translator who knows the target language!
You cannot give Reputation to the same post twice.
Whenever this thread gets bumped and I read this post, I can't not laugh.
Just the sheer absurdity of this current world that I'm living in.... which looks nothing like anything I imagined the future to be when I was a kid.
The Bastiat Collection · FREE PDF · FREE EPUB · PAPER Frédéric Bastiat (1801-1850)
- "When law and morality are in contradiction to each other, the citizen finds himself in the cruel alternative of either losing his moral sense, or of losing his respect for the law."
-- The Law (p. 54)- "Government is that great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else."
-- Government (p. 99)- "[W]ar is always begun in the interest of the few, and at the expense of the many."
-- Economic Sophisms - Second Series (p. 312)- "There are two principles that can never be reconciled - Liberty and Constraint."
-- Harmonies of Political Economy - Book One (p. 447)· tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito ·
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