"Putin Is The New Master Of The Middle East"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...er-middle-east
As Bloomberg writes today, "the Israelis and Turks, the Egyptians and Jordanians -
they’re all beating a path to the Kremlin in the hope that Vladimir Putin, the new master of the Middle East,
can secure their interests and fix their problems."
And now, none other than Saudi Arabia is the latest to make friendly overtures toward the Kremlin,
when Saudi King Salman visits Moscow on Wednesday, the first monarch of the oil-rich kingdom to do so.
At the top of his agenda will be reining in Iran, a close Russian ally seen as a deadly foe by most Gulf Arab states.
SYRIA CHANGED 'REALITY'
As Bloomberg concedes, until very recently, Washington stood alone as the go-to destination for such leaders.
Now, however, "American power in the region is perceptibly in retreat" a testament to the success of Russia’s military intervention in Syria,
which has not only succeeded in squashing the local Islamic State threat,
but kept President Bashar al-Assad in power after years of U.S. insistence that he must go.
“It changed the reality, the balance of power on the ground,” said Dennis Ross, America’s former chief Mideast peace negotiator
who advised several presidents from George H. W. Bush to Barack Obama.
“Putin has succeeded in making Russia a factor in the Middle East. That’s why you see a constant stream of Middle Eastern visitors going to Moscow.”
The tables began to turn in 2013, when the U.S. under Obama decided not to attack Assad.
Two years later, Putin sent troops and planes to defend him.
For the most part, America’s local allies were firmly in the Assad-must-go camp.
They were disillusioned when U.S. military might wasn’t deployed to force him out.
Russia’s clout in the region has grown “because Obama allowed it to,’’ said Khaled Batarfi, a professor at Alfaisal University’s branch in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
“Unfortunately he withdrew to a great extent from the Middle East.’’
That view is widespread.
It was bluntly expressed last month by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
who spent years urging American action against Assad. Talks with the U.S. “couldn’t get any results,’’ he said.
And, as discussed here previously, Turkey has now alligned with Russia and Iran in a plan to de-escalate the conflict.
It’s “achieving a result,’’ Erdogan said.
SAUDIS
Meanwhile, in the most bizarre reversal, the Saudis, who had financed rebels fighting against Assad
as well as radical, Al Qaeda splinter groups and according to Hillary Clinton, the Islamic State itself,
are cooperating with Russia in coaxing the opposition to unite for peace talks –
which will likely cement the Syrian leader in power, even as Saudi Arabia has splintered from its long-time ally Qatar.
As the goal of regime-change in Syria recedes, priorities have shifted.
The Saudis and other Arab Gulf powers are urging Russia to reduce Iran’s role in Syria,
where Hezbollah and other Shiite militias supported by Tehran have provided shock troops for Assad’s offensive.
“Russia is better off not to be on one side of it. That’s the key message," Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a U.A.E.-based political analyst, told Bloomberg.
“Here is the king, representing Arab Gulf countries, representing a lot of geopolitical weight, coming to Russia.
And Russia has to take that into consideration.’’
However
any expectations the Saudi monarch may have of inserting a wedge between Russia and Iran will soon be dashed:
Putin won’t shift his stance on Iran to accommodate Saudi wishes.
ISRAEL
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has visited Russia four times in the past 18 months,
has also found it hard to sway the Russian leader.
In August, Netanyahu told Putin that Iran’s growing foothold in Syria is “unacceptable.’’
In September he told CNN that the Iranians are trying to “colonize’’ Syria with the aim of “destroying us and conquering the Middle East."
Russia, though, refused his demand for a buffer zone inside Syria that would keep the forces of Iran and Hezbollah
at least 60 kilometers (37 miles) from the Israeli border, instead, Russia offered a 5-kilometer exclusion zone.
While Russia didn’t give way on the buffer zone, it has a tacit understanding
that permits Israel to carry out airstrikes against Hezbollah in Syria, said Andrey Kortunov,
director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, a research group set up by the Kremlin.
It’s been mediating, along with Egypt, to end the decade-old inter-Palestinian rift between Fatah in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza.
Putin invited rival Libyan factions to Moscow, after a series of peace efforts by other countries came to nothing.
Russia has become a leading investor in oil-rich Iraqi Kurdistan,
and was one of the few world powers to refrain from condemning its recent vote on independence.
Russia also rejected a U.S. demand to make the Euphrates river a dividing line
between Syrian government troops and U.S.-supported forces in eastern Syria.
This led to a race to capture territory from retreating Islamic State fighters in a strategic and oil-rich border region,
and is currently manifesting itself in the scramble to control Drer Ezzor.
Putin has another material advantage over American presidents according to Paul Salem, vice president of the Middle East Institute in Washington.
He has no Congress to worry about, and no elections that he risks losing.
Putin has been around for almost two decades, a long time in geopolitics, with “very consistent leadership, a consistent message,” Salem said.
“He says what he does, he does what he says.”
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Originally Posted by goldenequity
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