Target: Iran

[goldenequity]

Iranian FM Zarif to Saudi Arabia: Trump ‘humiliates’ you, but we extend our hand
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article...tend-our-hand/



========

https://twitter.com/PressTV/status/1047800407563689984

[AZJoe]

[Swordsmyth]

Iran’s crude oil exports plunged to 1.1 million bpd in the first seven days of October, sliding further down from 1.6 million bpd in September as we are just four weeks away from the return of the U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil, Reuters reported on Monday, citing tanker tracking data and an industry source tracking shipments.
Tanker shipments may vary week to week in a month, but the very low volumes in early October may suggest that Iran’s crude oil exports are taking a hit and are falling faster than the market had expected just two-three months ago.
According to Refinitiv Eikon tanker tracking data quoted by Reuters, not a single tanker headed to Europe in the first seven days of October. Iran’s tankers were bound for China, India, and the Middle East in the first week this month, according to the data.

More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...llion-Bpd.html

[Swordsmyth]

Iran’s condensate exports fell by 46 percent over the first six months of the Iranian year, from March to September, local news agency Isna reported, citing customs data. Quoting the Iranian-language source, Reuters reported condensate exports over the period totaled 4.644 million tons, compared with 8.629 million tons a year earlier.
Condensate is a major export product for Iran, making up a large portion of its total oil and gas exports. Buyers of the superlight crude are under more pressure than importers of “regular” crude since there are few alternate suppliers. S&P Global Platts reported in August that South Korea was particularly concerned and eager to win a sanction waiver to be able to continue buying Iranian condensate.
Reports about falling Iranian exports of oil and condensate abound, but there is one important detail: usually, these are reports about tracked tankers carrying Iranian oil and condensate.
At the beginning of October, for instance, Bloomberg reported that Iran’s oil and condensate exports had fallen to a two-and-a-half-year low at 1.72 million bpd, but noting these were tracked exports.
S&P Global Platts estimated Iran’s crude and condensate exports will drop to 1.1 million bpd this month, with the U.S. sanctions removing as much as 1.7 million bpd from markets from November on.
There are serious doubts that this much Iranian crude will actually leave the market. TankerTrackers.com reported in September that Iranian tankers were switching off their tracking devices after leaving their home ports, and later said that probably half of September’s exports were shipped with the trackers off.

More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...e-Exports.html

[Swordsmyth]

Iran's parliament passed a controversial bill designed to combat financing for terrorism in a hotly contested vote on Oct. 7, Deutsche Welle reported.

Iran's government is currently working to pass three bills designed to bring the country into compliance with the FATF before the intergovernmental organization has its next plenary meeting on Oct. 14. The FATF suspended active countermeasures against Iran's banking and financial sector pending the completion of Tehran's plan for promised reforms, which was launched in June 2016.

More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...rism-financing

[goldenequity]

S&P Global Platts estimated ..... the U.S. sanctions removing as much as 1.7 million bpd from markets from November on.
There are serious doubts that this much Iranian crude will actually leave the market. TankerTrackers.com reported in September that Iranian tankers were switching off their tracking devices after leaving their home ports, and later said that probably half of September’s exports were shipped with the trackers off.
More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...e-Exports.html

[Swordsmyth]

Iran's government will allocate coupons worth 1 million rials (around $24) each month for all 11 million citizens who receive subsidy support, Fars reported Oct. 9. In addition, similar coupons — which will be redeemable for food staples at major supermarket chains in the Islamic republic — worth 3 million rials will be given to 20 million people with monthly salaries under 30 million rials.

More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...ving-subsidies

[Swordsmyth]

Iran’s crude oil production dropped by 371,000 bpd between the second quarter of this year—when the U.S. announced the return of the sanctions—and September, according to the secondary sources in OPEC’s closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report published on Thursday.
Iran’s oil production in September plunged by 150,000 bpd from August to reach 3.447 million bpd last month. This compares to average Iranian production of 3.818 million bpd in the second quarter this year, as per OPEC’s secondary sources, highlighting the fact that Iran has been cutting oil production, although not at the fast rate at which its exports have been dropping over the past two months.
Iran, for its part, claims a much smaller loss in its oil production—Tehran self-reported to OPEC that its crude oil production in September stood at 3.755 million bpd, down by 51,000 bpd from August, when Iran self-reported production of 3.806 million bpd, compared to OPEC’s secondary sources estimate of 3.597 million bpd for August. Iran’s self-reported average production for the second quarter was 3.804 million bpd.
Among all OPEC members, Iran booked the steepest decline in production in September, followed by another slump in Venezuela—this time by 42,000 bpd to below the 1.2-million-bpd mark—1.197 million bpd, according to secondary sources.
Other OPEC members, however, almost entirely compensated for the loss of production in Iran and Venezuela—OPEC’s total production increased by 132,000 bpd in September to 32.761 million bpd. OPEC’s biggest producer Saudi Arabia opened up the taps to add 108,000 bpd of production last month, lifting output to 10.512 million bpd. Riyadh’s self-reported number is very close to the secondary sources—10.502 million bpd.

More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...n-Outages.html

[Swordsmyth]

India hasn’t worked out yet a payment system for continued purchases of crude oil from Iran, Subhash Chandra Garg, economic affairs secretary at India’s finance ministry, said on Friday.

More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...l-Imports.html

[goldenequity]

moved

[goldenequity]

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/stat...85063439290368
https://www.thenational.ae/world/the...ation-1.780959

[homahr]

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/stat...85063439290368
https://www.thenational.ae/world/the...ation-1.780959

It won't affect Hezbollah.

Also Lebanon will more than likely legalize the cannabis crop: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/c...lley-921840054

Cannabis farmers in Deir el Ahmar said they sold their cannabis production to traders who then exported them. “We are just a dot compared to the production in the Shia regions of the Bekaa,” said the owner of a small shop in the town centre, who added that he sold his production to “Shia”.None of the villagers would discuss whether Hezbollah, Lebanon’s powerful Shia party which dominates the Bekaa as well as being a major player in national politics, was involved.

But cannabis fields are visible in areas close to Deir El Ahmar where Hezbollah’s flags can be seen flying.
Hezbollah has been accused by the US of being involved in drug trafficking, a claim it has denied. It’s media office would also not comment to MEE on the legalisation of cannabis for medical purposes.

Hezbollah hasn't said anything yet about the legalization, but they do not seem to be opposed. And if they were opposed, they would face a backlash. Hezbollah is very shrewd politically and they know where the political winds are blowing. Consume cannabis and support Hezbollah!



During the 2006 war with israel; there were anti-hashish campaigns in israel that said if you smoke hashish your'e supporting Hezbollah, so don't smoke hashish.

[goldenequity]

yah... I remember in the early 80's the Bekka Valley was BOOMING with cannabis and poppies... lots of trans-national commerce from it.
Hezebollah was in its infancy.

[pcosmar]

yah... I remember in the early 80's the Bekka Valley was BOOMING with cannabis and poppies... lots of trans-national commerce from it.
Hezebollah was in its infancy.

Blond Lebanese,, and Afghan hash were available in the 70s,, Fell off when Russia Invaded Afghanistan.
Paki finger hash wasn't bad either.

[homahr]

Blond Lebanese,, and Afghan hash were available in the 70s,, Fell off when Russia Invaded Afghanistan.

Blond Lebanese hash and blond Lebanese women. Both are probably really fun.

[Swordsmyth]

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has confirmed that 14 Iranian security forces were abducted in Sistan-Baluchistan near the Iran-Pakistan border, Iranian state-run news agency Islamic Republic News Outlet reported Oct. 16. The Sunni militant group Jaish al-Adl has claimed responsibility for the attack and the abductions.

More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...kistani-border

[homahr]

Iran Deserves Credit for the Ruin of ISIS

Posted By Scott Ritter

Until recently the United States viewed the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, as a major threat to regional stability in the Middle East. Barack Obama made it a mission to roll back ISIS’s territorial and propagandistic gain [1], and Donald Trump campaigned on a promise to “kick ISIS’s ass [2].” The United States expended considerable effort, both military and political, in a campaign to defeat the terror group in Iraq and, to a lesser extent, Syria.


But there is also no doubt that the bulk of the effort came from Iran, not the United States. Without Iranian involvement, ISIS would still have a formidable presence in both Iraq and Syria.


ISIS was born out of the ashes of the American invasion of Iraq. [3] Their rise was the logical extension of a process that saw the fabric of secular Sunni society torn asunder by an American occupier unwilling to further empower a Sunni ruling elite that had been loyal to Saddam Hussein. Washington failed to understand the resentment engendered within the Sunni community when Iraq’s Shia, some of whom were beholden to Iran, came to power.


Traditional Sunni tribal power structures were eviscerated as a result, only to be replaced with radicalized Sunni youths beholden to only themselves. Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) was al-Qaeda in name only—its mission wasn’t to export jihad to the West, but to free Iraq from the grips of an American and Iranian occupation.


America’s campaign against AQI never resulted in that movement’s destruction. Instead, the United States, in an effort to free itself of the burden of war created when it invaded Iraq in the first place, withdrew from Iraq in 2012 [4], leaving the final phase of AQI’s destruction in the hands of the Iraqi government. This period coincided with the start of the civil unrest in Syria and the creation of a radicalized Islamist opposition to Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad. The willingness to cede large swaths of Syrian territory to Islamist forces as a means of destabilizing Assad created the conditions for the birth of ISIS in the deserts of both central Syria and western Iraq.


When ISIS advanced on the Iraqi cities of Ramadi and Fallujah, the American-trained and -equipped Iraqi army was unable to halt its advance. Soon the major city of Mosul fell to ISIS [5], and its forces pushed down the Tigris River valley to the outskirts of Baghdad.


The story of Iraq’s struggle to form a viable resistance to ISIS in the aftermath of the fall of Mosul is little known, and even less appreciated, by the United States. The formation of so-called “Popular Mobilization Forces [6],” or PMF—organized at the behest of Iraq’s senior Shia leadership, and trained, equipped, and led by Iran—was the single most important factor behind the halting of ISIS’s drive on Baghdad and its eventual eviction from Iraqi territory.


Western media have paid a disproportionate amount of attention to the actions of a select few American-trained Iraqi security forces, which, with ample support from U.S. airpower and advisors, helped end fighting in and around Mosul. All the while, they’ve ignored that the lion’s share of the fighting was done by the Iranian-directed PMF. This fact was not lost on the Iraqi people, many of whom (though not many of the Sunnis) hold the PMF in the highest regard. This sentiment has propelled many of the senior leadership of the PMF into political prominence in Baghdad.


For Iran, the ISIS phenomenon is not limited to Iraq. It is seen as part and parcel of a concerted effort undertaken by the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf Arab nations to overthrow Assad in Syria, diminish the power and influence of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and roll back Iranian influence in both Syria and Iraq. ISIS’s geographic presence in Syria, concentrated as it was in the central and northeastern deserts, made it a secondary target compared to the al-Qaeda affiliates operating in and around Aleppo and Damascus.


As the Syrian government, with the assistance of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, gained the upper hand in the fight against the American- and Saudi-backed al-Qaeda groups, however, the importance of ISIS as a source of anti-regime resistance grew. While ISIS never had the power to challenge Damascus directly, the efforts undertaken by the Syrian coalition to defeat ISIS diverted resources needed in the larger fight [7]. As such, the continued existence of a viable ISIS presence on Syrian soil was deemed an acceptable outcome by the United States as it sought to contain Iran’s presence on Syrian soil.


ISIS in Syria lingers on, despite the fact that U.S. military power could ensure its almost immediate elimination. The reason for the stay of execution is not entirely clear, but it could well be that the U.S. sees ISIS as a useful foil against Iran. Efforts by the United States to roll back Iran’s presence inside Syria have recently become more volatile in the wake of fiery rhetoric from senior Trump administration officials and actions undertaken by Iran to harden their positions. The American policy of Iranian rollback includes the re-imposition of economic sanctions and support for opposition groups opposed to the Iranian theocracy.


The latter point is very sensitive. This sensitivity has only been heightened by remarks from Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman suggesting that any struggle for influence between Riyadh and Tehran ought to take place “inside Iran, not in Saudi Arabia [8],” and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s encouraging Iranian Arab minorities to rise up in opposition to the Iranian government.


When gunmen linked to ISIS attacked a military parade in the Iranian city of Ahvaz [9], killing and wounding dozens, the Iranian government was quick to blame the United States and Saudi Arabia, among others, and promise retaliation in kind. This prompted National Security Advisor John Bolton to declare to Iran that “there will indeed be hell to pay [10]” if Iran or its proxies attacked the U.S. or its allies.


A few days later, Iranian rockets were launched [11], not against American targets in Basra, but locations in Syria linked to ISIS. While the Iranian strike was in clear retaliation for the Ahvaz attack, the rockets were emblazoned with slogans hostile to the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. This made it clear that the strike was meant for a broader audience. Among those who took notice were the American forces located a mere three miles away from the targets struck by the Iranians.


Rising tensions and strong rhetoric, if not carefully managed, could easily lead to an unintended—and dangerous—escalation of hostilities. This could test President Donald Trump’s uncertain appetite for direct conflict. Moreover, the American effort to stir up an Iranian opposition could do more to unite competing power factions within Iran’s leadership, and unite Iranians behind that leadership, than to divide and weaken the Iranian polity. The Trump administration seems to operate under the delusion that Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, are operating in different spheres with somewhat disparate interests. U.S. efforts to drive a wedge between Rouhani and Khamenei will not only prove fruitless, but backfire, closing the door to any potential negotiations and cementing a hardline response that will have Rouhani, the IRGC, and the supreme leader united in their opposition.


The United States is engaged in a dangerous double game with ISIS that is not only hypocritical in the extreme—given the 9/11 attacks on American soil that precipitated this whole sorry affair—but counterproductive to American national security interests. It has both empowered and legitimized the very Iranian theocracy it seeks to contain.


Rather than relying on ISIS as a foil to blunt Iranian influence in Syria and terrorize its citizenry at home, the Trump administration should recognize the positive role that Iran has played in defeating ISIS. It should build upon that recognition to craft a wider regional peace process that both recognizes the realities inherent in Syria today and reduces the tensions that prompt Iran to lean forward in such an aggressive manner. Unfortunately, such thinking seems beyond the capabilities of Mike Pompeo and John Bolton. As such, America will continue to pursue poorly thought out policies with no chance of success without any thought to either cost or consequence.


Scott Ritter is a former Marine Corps intelligence officer who served in the former Soviet Union implementing arms control treaties, in the Persian Gulf during Operation Desert Storm, and in Iraq overseeing the disarmament of WMD.

[Swordsmyth]

Reliance Industries has stopped importing Iranian crude oil ahead of U.S. sanctions against Tehran that enter into effect on November 4, a senior company official told Reuters. He added that the company had increased its intake from other Middle Eastern producers and the United States to compensate.
It’s no wonder Reliance has stopped importing Iranian crude. One of India’s biggest industrial conglomerates with a substantial international presence has exposure to the U.S. financial system that it needs to reckon with, therefore limiting the chance of violating U.S. sanctions that would close its access to U.S. banks. Earlier this year, an unnamed source from the company had told Reuters that insurers working with Reliance had also advised it to stop buying Iranian crude.

More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...ian-Crude.html

[Swordsmyth]

U.S. sanctions on Iran take effect in a little over two weeks, and the Trump administration has already had quite a bit of success in knocking Iranian supply offline. But, at the same time, it is very far from its goal of cutting Iranian oil exports to “zero” as it has promised.
The International Energy Agency estimates that Iran’s oil exports fell to 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in September, down 800,000 bpd from a recent peak in April at 2.4 mb/d. The losses are expected to continue, but few analysts really believe the Trump administration will manage to cut Iran’s exports to zero.
According to Reuters, “an unprecedented volume of Iranian crude oil is set to arrive at China’s northeast Dalian port this month and in early November before U.S. sanctions on Iran take effect.” An estimated 20 million barrels are destined to flow from Iran to China over the next few weeks, up from the usual 1 to 3 million barrels each month.
Other data from the IEA backs up this trend. Iran has been storing a portion of its oil production on ships in the Persian Gulf, a practice that it resorted to during the previous period of international sanctions between 2012 and 2016. It is difficult to simply turn off oil production, and with onshore storage filling up, Iran has been forced to store oil at sea. However, while Iran’s floating storage spiked in September, it actually fell back in October, “as several cargoes set sail for China and India, data from Kpler showed,” the IEA wrote in its report.


Meanwhile, there is other evidence to suggest that Iran is succeeding in shipping much more oil than is officially reported. NITC tankers have shut off their tracking devices in order to keep up oil shipments in the dark. Some satellite data suggests that a greater number of tankers are heading to India that is thought to be the case. The IEA said in its October Oil Market Report that India’s purchases from Iran jumped from 390,000 bpd in August to 600,000 bpd in September.
The furtive shipments from Iran to India demonstrate the limits of U.S. power. Discounts, off-the-books shipments, bartering and other clandestine maneuvers should keep some Iranian oil flowing even after November 4. For instance, Iran has discounted its oil by the most in 14 years, according to Bloomberg, making it hard to pass up for would-be buyers.
Still, Iran’s oil exports have indeed suffered a significant blow from the looming sanctions. China’s imports from Iran fell to 430,000 bpd in September, the lowest amount since 2016. Sinopec’s trading unit, Unipec, has said that it slashed the amount of oil it is buying from Iran because of pressure from the United States. Europe purchased 420,000 bpd in total in September, down 240,000 bpd from the second quarter. These volumes, in particular, are likely most at risk as European companies are much more intertwined with the United States, and as such, are vulnerable to American sanctions.

More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...Sanctions.html

[enhanced_deficit]

Why the Khashoggi Murder Is a Disaster for Israel, Neocons' War Drive Against Syria & Iran


The grisly hit-job on Khashoggi has implications far beyond its exposure of the Saudi Crown Prince as brutal and reckless. In Jerusalem and D.C., they’re mourning their whole strategic concept for the Mideast - not least, for countering Iran

Daniel B. Shapiro
Oct 17, 2018 3:50 PM

The shocking brutality of Jamal Khashoggi’s abduction and murder by Saudi security forces cannot be papered over, no matter how implausibly it is dressed up as an interrogation gone wrong or the work of rogue actors.

But its implications go deeper than the tragedy visited upon Khashoggi’s family and fiancee. It raises fundamental questions for the United States and Israel about their whole strategic concept in the Middle East.

On the one hand, cynics could argue that the brazenness of Khashoggi’s murder differed only in degree, than kind, from the longstanding behavior of Arab autocrats, including those allied with the United States.

There are no boy scouts in the Middle East, and the U.S.-Saudi alliance has persisted through decades of repressive Saudi policies against their own people.

[Swordsmyth]

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an intergovernmental organization force established to counter money laundering, has chosen to continue suspending countermeasures against Iran until February 2019 to give the Islamic republic more time to enact reforms and bring its financial system in line with global standards, Reuters reported Oct. 19.

The FATF's statement is much harsher than those that have accompanied previous extensions, suggesting that Iran may have received its final warning and that the organization will reimpose countermeasures in February 2019 if Iran fails to enact promised reforms.

More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...-enact-reforms

[goldenequity]

Press TV
Iran demands Pakistan secure immediate release of abducted security forces
http://ptv.io/2eQB
(it was a cross border kidnap a few days ago.... )

[goldenequity]

chinahand
"According to the anonymous source, Turkey's top oil refinery Tupras has been granted a waiver by Washington regarding the sanctions."
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/201..._137546866.htm …

manooch kargar
Turkey just saved Trump billions by hiding the torture-kill tape?

Here is a video of MbS calling Iranians 'the new Nazis' and blaming Iran for Saudi Arabia economic problems.


what a joke he is


Ali Özkök
Meanwhile:
We want France to become the No. 1 investor in SaudiArabia, business leader tells French businessmen
http:/bit.ly 2q46L7l

[Swordsmyth]

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that unlike Obama's 2013 Iran blockade, it would be harder for countries to get waivers on Iran oil sanctions as the US is already working on disconnecting Iran from the SWIFT network and dismissed concerns that oil prices could rise, saying the market had already factored in the output losses.
Speaking in an interview with Reuters in Jerusalem on Sunday at the start of a Middle East trip, Mnuchin said countries would have to reduce their purchases of Iranian oil by more than the roughly 20% level they did from 2013 to 2015 to get waivers. "I would expect that if we do give waivers it will be significantly larger reductions," said the US Treasury Secretary.
To achieve the US goal of further isolating Iran from the global financial community, Mnuchin said that the U.S. Treasury was already in negotiations with the Belgian-based financial messaging service SWIFT which intermediates the bulk of the world’s cross-border dollar-denominated transactions, on disconnecting Iran from the network. Washington has been pressuring SWIFT to cut Iran from the system as it did in 2012 before the nuclear deal.
Validating European concerns that the US can and will weaponize the dollar at will and use the reserve currency as a global bargaining chip, Mnuchin's threats confirmed that although the United States does not hold a majority on SWIFT’s board of directors, the Trump administration could impose penalties on SWIFT unless it disconnects from Iran, pressuring it to comply with US demands.
"I can assure you our objective is to make sure that sanctioned transactions do not occur whether it’s through SWIFT or any other mechanism,” he said, “Our focus is to make sure that the sanctions are enforced."
While Mnuchin declined to give details of the talks with SWIFT executives, he said that the Treasury Department would identify “as quickly as possible” banks that would be allowed to process transactions for humanitarian funding to Iran, and by implication identifying all the banks that would be isolated. "We want to get to the right outcome, which is cutting off transactions,” he said, declining to comment on which banks would be selected.


More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...t-iran-network

[goldenequity]

Press TV
Iran demands Pakistan secure immediate release of abducted security forces
http://ptv.io/2eQB
(it was a cross border kidnap a few days ago.... )

https://twitter.com/Ozkok_/status/1054099261841907712

[Swordsmyth]

China’s largest refiners, state-held Sinopec and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), haven’t booked any crude oil cargoes from Iran for November due to fears that in doing so, they would be in breach of the U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil returning in less than two weeks, Reuters reported on Wednesday, quoting two people with direct knowledge of the plans.

More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...-November.html

[goldenequity]

China’s largest refiners, state-held Sinopec and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), haven’t booked any crude oil cargoes from Iran for November due to fears that in doing so, they would be in breach of the U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil returning in less than two weeks, Reuters reported on Wednesday, quoting two people with direct knowledge of the plans.
More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...-November.html

Pussies.

[Swordsmyth]

Iraq will stop trucking crude oil from its northern Kirkuk oil field to Iran in November in order to comply with sanctions imposed on its neighbour by the United States, two sources familiar with Iraqi oil export operations said on Friday.

More at: https://www.yahoo.com/news/iraq-halt...143149051.html

[Swordsmyth]

The European Union's plan to skirt U.S. sanctions against Iran through a special vehicle to process transactions with the Islamic republic has struggled because no EU member state is willing to host the vehicle for fear of retribution from Washington, the Financial Times reported Oct. 28.

More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...t-us-sanctions

[Swordsmyth]

In what must seem like a nightmare scenario for Iran, not only is another U.S. president leveling sanctions against its economy, and particularly that economy’s lifeblood, its oil sector, but the current U.S. president has admittedly made it his mission to drive Tehran to its knees over what he sees as non-compliance over the 2015 nuclear accord between western powers and Tehran.


As recently as the start of this month, the oil markets narrative was that perhaps President Donald Trump had pushed a bit too hard by reimposing sanctions against Iran. Oil markets, for their part, were jittery while both global oil benchmark Brent and U.S. Benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures hit four-year highs largely on supply concerns. Some predicted that $100 per barrel oil by the end of the year was imminent, while Tehran maintained a defiant tone, stating that neither Saudi Arabia nor OPEC would be able to pump enough oil to compensate for the loss of Iranian barrels, estimated between 500,000 bpd and 1 million bpd.
Now, what a different just a few weeks can make. Oil prices are now trending downward, falling for a third consecutive week as global stock markets tumbled and oil markets focused on a weaker demand outlook for crude going forward. Brent crude fell 2.7 percent last week and is down 10.5 percent from its October 3 high of $86.74. WTI ended the week down some 2.2 percent and has now dropped around 12 percent from its recent high of on October 3. Moreover, in a sign of things to come, hedge-fund and money managers are trimming their bets that crude oil prices will rise.
Oil market headwinds, perhaps even storm clouds are brewing over a slowdown in economic growth due to trade war tensions between Washington and Beijing, and a stronger dollar weighing on emerging market economies, with those countries seeing an exodus of currency for higher yielding, safer havens like the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. A stronger dollar also increases the price for oil import dependent countries, with India, the Philippines, Indonesia and others particularly vulnerable.
Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York said on Friday that “We’ve seen oil prices sell off here throughout the correction we’ve had in the broad market. The concern in the sell-off is clearly global growth, and that’s immediately reflected in oil prices.” UBS analysts, for their part, expect oil demand to grow more slowly in 2019, on higher oil prices and weaker economic growth. Barclays currently sees the oil market flipping into oversupply in the first quarter of next year.


How all of this plays out remains to be seen, but with a general downturn in economic growth and a slowdown in oil growth demand going forward, the loss of Iranian barrels now looks easily manageable - a scenario sure to cause consternation for Tehran.

Even Saudi Arabia is bracing for a possible return of oil supply overhang, a recent nightmarish situation for Riyadh as recently as 2015 and 2016 when it was forced to turn to Russia and form the so-called OPEC+ to trim oil production and return OECD oil inventories to five-year average while giving support to beleaguered prices that had dipped below $30 at the start of 2016.
Saudi Arabia’s OPEC governor said on Thursday the market could face oversupply in the current quarter, and after a slump in global equities clouded the outlook for demand. “The market in the fourth quarter could be shifting towards an oversupply situation as evidenced by rising inventories over the past few weeks,” Adeeb al-Aama told Reuters. Saudi Arabian energy minister Khalid al-Falih said there could be a need for intervention to reduce oil stockpiles after increases in recent months.
Amid these developments, Tehran has toned down then eliminated its defiant insistence that oil markets were headed for trouble with the loss of Iranian barrels. Now, the country needs a new narrative. Moreover, the fallout for Iran remains clear. With most major importers of Iranian crude, including India and even China, already falling into compliance with U.S sanctions, the Iranian government will have to move quickly to not only make up the shortfall in oil revenue needed for state coffers but to also appease already festering public angst over the fall of the country’s currency (the rial), high inflation, unemployment and ongoing economic problems in the Islamic Republic.

More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...re-coming-true