Saudi Arabia and OPEC are doomed.

[Swordsmyth]

OPEC is pivoting toward BRICS.

Nothing will save them.

[Zippyjuan]

It will go down again, and it is not high enough for them now.

How high is "high enough"? (yes, oil goes up and down and OPEC goes on.....)

How low before they "fail"?

[Swordsmyth]

How high is "high enough"?

High enough to sustain the member countries budgets and pay off their people to not revolt.

[Zippyjuan]

High enough to sustain the member countries budgets and pay off their people to not revolt.

So there is quite a bit of "wiggle room".

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-s...-idUSKCN18G0TD

Saudi Arabia says comfortable with 2017 budget deficit

RIYADH (Reuters) - The Saudi government is comfortable with this year’s budget deficit, the country’s finance minister said on Saturday, adding that authorities may slow austerity measures slightly in line with recommendations by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

[devil21]

Nothing will save them.

I don't see BRICS giving up oil consumption any time soon. Its evident by how the emissions pacts always specify China will scale back emissions starting at some nebulous future date. I agree that OPEC's, and indeed oil consumption overall, days are numbered but that's a long ways off. There's still too much oil/gas required for the development still needed in China and India, in particular. Russia obviously can supply it's own oil. Brazil gets theirs from Venezuela. etc. I enjoy running threads like these for historical reference but if you're waiting for the end of OPEC it's going to be a looooong thread.

[Swordsmyth]

So there is quite a bit of "wiggle room".

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-s...-idUSKCN18G0TD

OPEC always puts up a good front, if they admitted they were in trouble the crisis would accelerate.

[Swordsmyth]

Shell: Breakeven For Brazilian Pre-salt Less Than $40

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Shell-Breakeven-For-Brazilian-Pre-salt-Less-Than-40.html

[Zippyjuan]

I don't see BRICS giving up oil consumption any time soon. Its evident by how the emissions pacts always specify China will scale back emissions starting at some nebulous future date. I agree that OPEC's, and indeed oil consumption overall, days are numbered but that's a long ways off. There's still too much oil/gas required for the development still needed in China and India, in particular. Russia obviously can supply it's own oil. Brazil gets theirs from Venezuela. etc. I enjoy running threads like these for historical reference but if you're waiting for the end of OPEC it's going to be a looooong thread.

Brazil produces their own. They do import some light oil from the Middle East but none from Venezuela (which has heavy, thick, sulfurous oil requiring lots of refining).

but if you're waiting for the end of OPEC it's going to be a looooong thread

Agree.

[devil21]

Brazil produces their own. They do import some light oil from the Middle East but none from Venezuela (which has heavy, thick, sulfurous oil requiring lots of refining).

Fair enough. I meant more forward looking than past or current conditions. One can assume that as part of BRICS, Brazil will undergo large development projects and would look to closest geographical oil suppliers for additional needed oil. If they were smart they'd do like we've done and suck up everyone else's oil before using much of our own. Anyway, IIRC, Venezuelan govt said they would start selling in multiple currencies, including the real. That whole region has a lot of untapped oil though.

[Swordsmyth]

Iraq Seizes Saudi Share In U.S. Oil Market

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Iraq-Seizes-Saudi-Market-Share-In-US-Oil-Market.html

[Swordsmyth]

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman supports extending the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil production cuts past March 2018, Bloomberg reported Oct. 26.

More at:https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...opec-cuts-2018

[Swordsmyth]

The Qatar Blockade Could Cause A Regional Recession

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/The-Qatar-Blockade-Could-Cause-A-Regional-Recession.html

[Swordsmyth]

U.S. Crude Imports Soar Amid Rising Refinery Output

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Crude-Imports-Soar-Amid-Rising-Refinery-Output.html

[Zippyjuan]

Maybe you could just leave a standing link to Oil Price front page. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/

[Swordsmyth]

Mexico Spends Record $1.25 Billion On 2018 Oil Hedge

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Mexico-Spends-Record-125-Billion-On-2018-Oil-Hedge.html

[Swordsmyth]

Canadian Oil Drilling To Grow In 2018

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Canadian-Oil-Drilling-To-Grow-In-2018-Petroleum-Association.html

[Swordsmyth]

Another Gulf Crisis: Dinar Devaluation Looms As Bahrain Begs Neighbors For Bailout

Despite the recent rise in oil prices, all is not well among the allies in the Gulf. The 'pegged-to-the-dollar' Bharaini Dinar has tumbled in the last few days as Bloomberg reports the nation has asked Gulf Arab allies for financial assistance as it seeks to replenish its foreign-exchange reserves and avert a currency devaluation - which could spread contagiously through MidEast markets.

Bloomberg reports, according to people with knowledge of the talks, Bahrain has asked for a bailout.

The request was made to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two of the people said.

A third person said Kuwait was also asked.

The countries responded by requesting the island kingdom do more to bring its finances under control in return for the money, the people said on condition of anonymity because the discussions were private.

The talks are at an early stage, one person said.

More at: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...igbors-bailout

[Swordsmyth]

A string of arrests of senior government officials in Saudi Arabia has also struck Aramco board member Ibrahim al-Assaf, a former Finance Minister in the Kingdom. The situation apparently remains volatile and the arrest could spell further trouble for Aramco’s IPO next year.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...Crackdown.html

[Swordsmyth]

OPEC: U.S. Shale To Rise Much Faster Than Expected

Higher oil prices, robust oil demand growth, and higher upstream activity will lead to faster-than-previously-expected growth in U.S. shale production until 2022, OPEC said in its World Oil Outlook 2017 published on Tuesday.
Compared to last year’s annual OPEC outlook, the medium-term outlook for non-OPEC liquids growth has “changed quite considerably”, the cartel said, citing the “US tight oil sector’s resilience and ability to bounce back.”
“Most strikingly, US tight oil production has exceeded previous growth expectations and is currently forecast to contribute to a rise in overall US liquids by some 0.6 mb/d in 2017 and then 0.9 mb/d in 2018. This contrasts with an annual decline in US liquids in 2016, overall non-OPEC production. In the medium-term, total non-OPEC liquids are forecast to grow by 4.9 mb/d to 62 mb/d in 2022, of which 3.8 mb/d is incremental supply from the US alone,”

More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Pric...-Expected.html


U.S. shale producers promise both higher output and returns

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-shale-output/u-s-shale-producers-promise-both-higher-output-and-returns-idUSKBN1D401F


Aramco Oil Reserves Audit Unlikely To Be Completed In 2017

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Aramco-Oil-Reserves-Audit-Unlikely-To-Be-Completed-In-2017.html

[Swordsmyth]

Bakken Oil Production Rises As Oil Prices Jump

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Bakken-Oil-Production-Rises-As-Oil-Prices-Jump.html

[PierzStyx]

Ziplogic.

If you're going to quote him, do it in full.

Zippy: ... Lower prices makes it harder for some fracking producers to be profitable- forcing them to shut down. That lowers supply and would allow Saudi Arabia and Russia to increase their market share and will raise price in the future for them. Russia's "cut" isn't much of a cut for them- prior to the latest production allocation they cranked up their facilities to maximum output- a level they would have difficulties sustaining. The "cut" takes them "down" to their usual output.

[PierzStyx]

If Venezuela would turn its back on Socialism it would break OPEC in just a few years and become one of the richest countries on the planet. Or at least have a stable economy.

[Swordsmyth]

China’s oil imports fell to just 7.3 million barrels per day in October, a sharp decline from 9 mb/d a month earlier.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...tion-Soon.html

[Swordsmyth]

Satellite Images Reveal Saudis May Be Lying How Much Oil They Have In Storage

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-08/satellite-images-reveal-saudi-arabia-may-be-lying-about-its-oil-storage

[Swordsmyth]

Government data indicates American output hit an all-time high last week, signaling the resilience of North American drilling as oil prices begin another recovery.
The U.S. produced 9.62 million barrels of oil per day through November 3^rd, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said today, overtaking the previous high that occurred back in June 2015.
The agency’s Petroleum Status Report from last week said exports hit an all-time high at two million bpd as well.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...Time-High.html

[Swordsmyth]

Saudis To Cut Oil Exports By 120,000 BPD In December

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudis-To-Cut-Oil-Exports-By-120000-BPD-In-December.html

[Swordsmyth]

U.S. Rig Count Sees Significant Increase

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Pric...-Increase.html

[Swordsmyth]

OPEC Chairman: Output Cuts Are The ‘’Only Viable Option’’

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/OPEC-Chairman-Output-Cuts-Are-The-Only-Viable-Option.html

[Swordsmyth]

Iraqi Oil Minister Jabar al-Luaibi said the government plans on increasing oil production to one million barrels per day from the Bai Hasan and Avana oil fields in Kirkuk, Reuters reported Nov. 13.

https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...duction-kirkuk

[Swordsmyth]

Iraq Oil Revenue Not Enough For Sustainable Development

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iraq-Oil-Revenues-Not-Enough-For-Sustainable-Development.html