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Thread: Saudi Arabia and OPEC are doomed.

  1. #631
    US President Donald Trump on Wednesday urged OPEC members not to slash production at their upcoming meeting, saying global oil prices should remain low.Trump's comment came as members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil-producing nations prepared to meet Thursday and Friday in Vienna to discuss lowering their output.
    "Hopefully OPEC will be keeping oil flows as is, not restricted. The World does not want to see, or need, higher oil prices!" Trump said on Twitter.

    More at: https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-ask...151252467.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

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    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

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  3. #632
    Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih met with the U.S. Special Representative for Iran, Brian Hook, on Wednesday, a day before OPEC is meeting to discuss new production cuts to rebalance the market, Reuters reported, quoting sources familiar with the meeting.
    While the topic of the Saudi-U.S. meeting was not immediately clear, it’s probably safe to assume that the energy minister of OPEC’s de facto leader and the U.S. official for Iran discussed the current and future impact of the U.S. sanctions on Iran on the global oil market.
    According to S&P Global Platts, the meeting between al-Falih and Hook, which neither side confirmed or agreed to comment, may have been held to exchange views on Saudi Arabia’s position at Thursday’s OPEC meeting and what level of production the cartel and allies might need to keep in order to factor in more losses of Iranian oil supply.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...EC-Summit.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  5. #633
    After six hours of discussions, OPEC didn’t agree on Thursday on any specific oil production cut agreement as members are quarrelling on how to divvy up the production cuts and who will be exempt from reducing output, while all signs point to the cartel waiting to see how much Russia will agree to cut before announcing a possible deal.
    OPEC canceled its scheduled after-meeting press conference on Thursday and Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said the cartel was still “deliberating” an agreement, after the meeting ended. The main proposal that was discussed was a cut of around 1 million bpd.
    “I am not confident of an agreement,” al-Falih said, adding that “Russia is not ready for a substantial cut.”
    Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak will be joining the talks with non-OPEC on Friday, after having received instructions from President Vladimir Putin on Russia’s position on joining the cuts.
    Even without having to wait for Russia’s consent, the OPEC meeting was more contentious than usual, with the main “sticking point” being getting agreement from all producers, according to the Saudi minister.
    Another sticking point was who could be exempt from the cuts.


    Apart from counting barrels and looking at demand forecasts, OPEC was dealing today with discontent from some members who blame Saudi Arabia for creating the oversupply by pumping at records, and for giving non-OPEC Russia a very big say in the cartel’s oil production policy.
    The deal-or-no-deal saga continues on Friday, while the oil market was left hanging, with prices down 3% at 1:16 p.m. EDT.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...The-Table.html


    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  6. #634
    Update: It would appear OPEC+ talks are over... Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak won’t make it back to Vienna Thursday to discuss cutting oil output with the OPEC+ group of crude producing countries, RIA Novosti reports, citing the ministry.

    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ement-tomorrow

    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  7. #635
    Qatar quits OPEC
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Dr. Ron Paul. "Stand up for what you believe in, even if you are standing alone." - Sophie Magdalena Scholl
    "War is the health of the State." - Randolph Bourne "Freedom is the answer. ... Now, what's the question?" - Ernie Hancock.

  8. #636
    The U.S.’s fastest growing oil field may have even more to give.The Permian’s Delaware Basin, the less drilled part of the giant West Texas and New Mexico oil field, holds more than twice the amount of crude as its sister, the Midland Basin, the U.S. Geological Service said Thursday.
    The Wolfcamp Shale and Bone Spring rock formations in the Delaware hold an estimated 46.3 billion barrels, the scientists said in their first assessment of the area. In addition, it holds about 281 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, about 18 times the amount in the Midland Basin, which is more heavily drilled and better known.
    The Midland and Delaware estimates are the USGS’s “largest continuous oil and gas assessments ever released,” Dr. Jim Reilly, the organization’s director, said in a statement. The amount consists of “undiscovered, technically recoverable resources,” the USGS said.
    The study only looked at the two rock formations, which are both well known to operators including Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc, EOG Resources Inc. and Occidental Petroleum Corp. Industry experts say there are as many as a dozen so-called ‘pay zones’ in the area.


    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meet-...100000276.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  9. #637
    OPEC and its Russia-led allies agreed on Friday to slash oil production by more than the market had expected despite pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to reduce the price of crude.The producer club will curb output from January by 0.8 million barrels per day versus October levels while non-OPEC allies contribute an additional 0.4 million bpd of cuts, in a move to be reviewed at a meeting in April.
    Oil prices jumped about 5 percent to more than $63 a barrel as the combined cut of 1.2 million bpd was larger than the minimum 1 million bpd that the market had expected.


    The OPEC deal had hung in the balance for two days - first on fears that Russia would cut too little, and later on concerns that Iran, whose crude exports have been depleted by U.S. sanctions, would receive no exemption and block the agreement.
    But after hours of talks, Iran gave OPEC the green light and Russia said it was ready to cut more.
    Russia gave a commitment to reduce output by 228,000 bpd from October levels of 11.4 million bpd, though it said the cuts would be gradual and take place over several months.
    The country's energy minister, Alexander Novak, said Russian President Vladimir Putin had discussed an output decrease with Saudi Prince Mohammed.
    Iraq, OPEC's second-largest producer, pledged to cut 140,000 bpd. Falih said Saudi production had dropped to 10.7 million bpd in December from 11.1 million in November and was set to decline to 10.2 million bpd in January.
    Iran, Libya and Venezuela were effectively given exemptions. Nigeria, which has been exempt since the previous round of cuts from January 2017, agreed to participate.

    Bob McNally, president of U.S.-based Rapidan Energy Group, said the details of the cut were "fuzzy" and would likely result in a lesser reduction than the headline figure.
    "President Trump will not be happy to see today’s headlines, but how strongly he reacts depends mainly on whether crude prices rise strongly as a result in coming days and weeks."

    More at: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/opec-...--finance.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  10. #638
    After Russia agreed on Friday to cut its oil production as part of the non-OPEC group tasked with cutting 400,000 bpd of oil production, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said it would take Russia “months” to get down to its requested level.
    While there were no specific figures or targets released to the public for each individual member of the OPEC and non-OPEC groups to hit, non-OPEC was saddled with a 400,000 bpd burden, while OPEC itself agreed to cut 800,000 bpd. Unofficial sources, according to Tass, has Russia’s portion of the cuts pegged at 228,000 bpd, which is 2% of its October levels.
    Shortly after the meeting concluded on Friday, Alexander Novak dampened high spirits among the oil bulls. “The oil production will be reduced, just as two years ago, as quickly as possible in terms of technology. I think it will take several months,” Novak said at the after-meeting press conference.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...Implement.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  11. #639
    Saudi Arabia could reduce its daily crude oil shipments abroad by as much as 1 million barrels next month, Reuters reports, quoting unnamed sources close to Riyadh. According to them, the move would be motivated by weaker demand due to seasonal patterns in consumption and Saudi Arabia’s commitment to the new production cut agreed last week in Vienna.
    In total, the sources said, Riyadh will likely export an average 7.3 million bpd in January. This compares with less than 8 million bpd this month, also a decline from November, when the Kingdom exported 8.3 million bpd.
    Saudi Arabia will once again shoulder the greatest burden of the OPEC-wide cuts, cutting 500,000 bpd from its December production levels, which stand at an average 10.7 million bpd, the same as in October. The cartel and its partners agreed to cut production from October levels, by 2.5 percent for every OPEC member besides Libya, Iran, and Venezuela.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...ext-Month.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  12. #640
    OPEC and its non-OPEC partners are set to officially sign a cooperation agreement in March of next year, the UAE’s energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said, according to Reuters.
    The agreement will be officially signed in March in Saudi Arabia, the oil minister said, and will seek to align OPEC with non-OPEC oil producers, most importantly Russia, on matters likely to include achieving market balance—specifically production quotas. The term “market balance” is the new phrase OPEC is using instead of referencing specific oil prices, after OPEC in October steered its members away from any words that may put it at odds with proposed U.S. legislation called the NOPEC Act.
    OPEC and a group of non-OPEC members reached an agreement on Friday to cut production starting in January 2019. OPEC’s portion of the production cuts was 800,000 bpd, with Saudi Arabia’s accounting for 500,000 bpd of that. The non-OPEC countries agreed to 400,000 bpd of the production cut, with Russia accounting for approximately 230,000 bpd of the 400,000.
    Russia, for its part, said it would take “months” for that level of cut to be achieved. Likewise, OPEC’s production cuts are unlikely to shrink by 800,000 bpd immediately on January 1st, and will more than likely take months as well.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...-In-March.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  14. #641
    The commissioning of a mega refinery and petrochemical complex worth US$44 billion and involving Saudi Aramco and ADNOC has been pushed out by two years to 2025, a top executive at the Indian consortium part of the project told Reuters on Tuesday.
    Ratnagiri Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd (RPPL), the joint venture company responsible for the huge 1.2 million bpd complex construction and development, had initially scheduled the commissioning for 2023. According to the website of the joint venture, the refinery is expected to be commissioned by the year 2025, and is planned to produce high-quality automotive and aviation fuels, plus a wide range of petrochemical products.
    “The project will be completed in 2024 and commissioning will be in 2025,” B. Ashok, the chief executive of RPPL, told Reuters on Tuesday.
    The joint venture company now has more detailed information on the refinery configuration and the availability of people to build it, according to Ashok.
    In June this year, Saudi Aramco and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) signed a framework agreement and a memorandum of understanding with a consortium of Indian national oil companies to join the mega project at Ratnagiri in the Maharashtra state on India’s west coast.

    By investing in the giant Indian refinery, the national oil companies of leading OPEC producers Saudi Arabia and the UAE would secure off-take for their crude in a strategic fast-growing oil market in Asia.
    However, the process of land acquisition for the new giant complex has been put on hold due to strong opposition from local farmers, many of whom depend on their land for their income and livelihoods, the chief minister of Maharashtra, Devendra Fadnavis, said in November. According to Reuters, thousands of farmers are not eager to give up their land.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...y-Delayed.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  15. #642
    Russia is planning to reduce its oil production by 50,000 bpd to 60,000 bpd in January as part of the new OPEC+ deal, and will not be cutting its 228,000-bpd share outright at the start of the agreement, Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday.
    Russia has already drafted a timetable for how much oil production it would reduce each month until it reaches its share of the OPEC/non-OPEC production cut, Novak said, reaffirming Moscow’s position that its reduction would be gradual, just like in the previous agreement between OPEC and the Russia-led non-OPEC partners.
    While Russia will be making the lion’s share of the non-OPEC 400,000-bpd cut, it would take months to reach the 228,000-bpd production reduction, Novak said on Friday, after OPEC and its allies sealed the deal.
    The agreement calls for 2.5 percent cuts from the October production levels, which for Russia was a post-Soviet record high of 11.4 million bpd.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...n-January.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  16. #643
    A variant of the Shamoon malware that hit Saudi Aramco’s servers six years ago is back, Axios reports, citing a release from the cybersecurity unit of Alphabet, Chronicle. According to the Chronicle release, the company had detected a file infected with Shamoon in its database VirusTotal.
    The malware, Chronicle said, was uploaded from Italy and is different from the previous two variants. Those moved through networks via pre-programmed credentials while this one stays on the computer it is installed on first. There is no command and control infrastructure that would allow the attackers to communicate with the virus, and what the virus does this time is encrypt all files irreversibley rather than replacing them with politically significant images, Axios reports.
    While the cybersecurity experts at Chronicle figure out what the malware is all about this time, they do note it comes on the heels of a report from Italy’s oilfield services major Saipem that it had become the target of a cyberattack, with the most severe blow suffered by its network in the Middle East.
    Reuters quoted Saipem’s head of digital and innovation operations, Mauro Piasere, as saying the company’s servers in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait had been affected by malware, with the origin of the attack Chennai, India.

    “The servers involved have been shut down for the time being to assess the scale of the attack,” Piasere said.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...2-Is-Back.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  17. #644
    OPEC+ will need to stay 700,000 bpd below its agreed targets of 31.8 million bpd through 2019 in order to bring a recovery in Brent prices to the $70 level, Rystad Energy says.
    The OPEC countries and Russia agreed on December 7 to cut oil production by 1.2 million bpd in 2019 – slightly larger than the 1.0 million bpd cut expected by many observers.
    “The OPEC+ agreement predictably came up short of what Rystad Energy argued would be required to fully balance the market in 2019. The agreed production cuts will not be enough to ensure sustained and immediate recovery in oil prices. The muted market reaction seen thus far comes as no surprise to us”, Rystad Energy head of oil market research Bjornar Tonhaugen says.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...Should-Do.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  18. #645
    Saudi Arabia decided in 2016 to impose taxes on expat dependents as part of Crown Prince MbS drive of Saudisation of the economy. Bloomberg writes; Announced in 2016 as part of a drive to increase non-oil government revenue — a key goal of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s economic transformation plan — the fees have been unpopular with business owners in a country accustomed to cheaper foreign labor. Partly as a result, hundreds of thousands of foreigners have left the kingdom, hitting the already-struggling economy but failing to make much of a dent in Saudi unemployment.
    As of earlier this year over 800,000 expats had left the country. Now the country contemplates of removing or reducing the “fee/tax” as the economy falters. Bloomberg continues;
    While it’s unlikely the fees will be canceled altogether, a ministerial committee is looking at modifying or restructuring them, one of the people said. A decision is expected within weeks, two of the people said.
    All this comes back of the fact Saudisation is not working. The working age population in Saudi Arabia have in essence no desire to with work jobs equivalent to their skill levels. Business Insider reports;
    Many companies are reported to be circumventing the policy’s local employee quota requirement by hiring Saudis and paying them small salaries for what are in effect bogus jobs — a process termed “fake Saudisation.
    “Employers say young Saudi men and women are lazy and are not interested in working and accuse Saudi youth of preferring to stay at home rather than to take a low-paying job that does not befit the social status of a Saudi job seeker,” Bassnawi said, adding that fake Saudisation “could create a generation of young men and women who are not interested in finding a job and who prefer to get paid for doing nothing.”
    Saudi Arabia is in a difficult situation. Their disastrous war in Yemen costs about $200m/daily. Recent oil declines hit the Saudi economy harder than any other country. With its total dependence on foreigners on every facet of its society there is risk continues low oil prices and a lack of economic development in the country will lead to disaster. Maybe the only way Saudis might get some leeway is that there is a War in the Middle East.


    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...y-and-military
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  19. #646
    It’s the time of the year when oil companies start announcing their budgets for next year and besides a steady albeit guarded optimism, one thing stands out: oil majors are doubling down on their shale endeavors.
    Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Hess Corp all announced their capex plans for next year in the last few days and all three have big plans for U.S. shale. In fact, Conoco said it would allocate half of its budget on onshore operations in the United States, while Hess Corp said the bulk of its US$1.89 billion production growth budget, or US$1.425 billion, would be poured into the Bakken play.
    Chevron has earmarked US$3.6 billion for expanding its production in the Permian and another US$1.6 billion will be invested in other shale plays in the United States. That makes a total of US$5.2 billion for U.S. shale, which is substantially higher than this year’s budget of US$4.3 billion.
    Anadarko, which made its 2019 spending plans public last month, said it planned to allocate more than two-thirds of its 2019 budget to shale operations, with a particular focus on the Delaware Basin in the Permian and the DJ basin in Colorado.
    According to Bloomberg, shale has become “a safe haven” for Big Oil amid the recent increased volatility in prices. The argument is that shale production costs are much lower than a few years ago and combine with the opportunity for a steady production increase and quicker returns than conventional projects.


    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...rice-Drop.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  20. #647
    Now nearly a week removed from the OPEC+ agreement, confidence in the efficacy of the deal is becoming shaky.
    Immediately after OPEC+ announced cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), a flurry of reports from oil analysts and investment banks congratulated the group on a job well done. After all, the 1.2 mb/d figure was larger than the market had anticipated.
    However, reality is beginning to set in. First, the cuts might not be realized in January, despite the promise. Russia indicated that it was going to slow walk the cuts, phasing in an initial 50,000 to 60,000 bpd in reductions in January. This is significant because Russia is the main actor in the non-OPEC cohort. The non-OPEC group is expected to slash output by 400,000 bpd, but if Russia is only going to do its part gradually over the next few months, the non-OPEC cuts might not reach the promised levels anytime soon. Moreover, because there are no country-specific allotments, it will be hard to hold any producer accountable.
    That undermines confidence in the deal. “Compared to early last week, the outcome was rather disappointing, the whole process wasn’t convincing, and it’s still uncertain whether they will actually cut,” ABN Amro senior energy economist Hans van Cleef told Bloomberg.
    While oil traders are suddenly doubting the integrity of the deal, even if OPEC+ were to adhere to its promised cuts, it still might not be enough. That’s because there are other factors that could leave the market oversupplied. Cracks in the global economy are growing, demand is showing signs of strain, and supply continues to rise.
    The EIA just issued its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, and the agency still expects significant production growth from U.S. shale despite the downturn in prices. The EIA lowered its forecasted 2019 WTI prices by $10 per barrel from its previous report, yet it kept its supply forecast unchanged – it still thinks that U.S. oil production will rise from 10.9 mb/d in 2018 to 12.1 mb/d in 2019, despite the significant downward revision in prices.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...nt-Cut-It.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  21. #648
    WTI prices briefly popped above $52 before fading quickly after Bloomberg reported that after flooding the US market in recent months, Saudi Arabia plans to slash exports starting in January in an effort to dampen visible build-ups in crude inventories.

    Bloomberg reports that, according to people briefed on the plans of state oil company Saudi Aramco, American-based oil refiners have been told to expect much lower shipments from the kingdom in January than in recent months following the OPEC agreement to reduce production


    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ng-oil-exports
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  23. #649
    The Wall Street Journal has exposed Saudi Arabia's stock market rescue squad...
    The Journal pulls no punches in turning the conspiracy theory into conspiracy fact, noting that the government of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has spent billions to counter selloffs in recent months.
    According to a Wall Street Journal analysis of trading data and interviews with multiple people with direct knowledge of government intervention efforts, the Saudi government has placed huge buy orders, often in the closing minutes of negative trading days, to boost the market.
    Most notably, while the Saudi stock exchange normally discloses how much stock the government buys, the recent purchases after political crises have been concealed from public view. That is because the government, rather than buying stock directly, has routed its money through asset managers at Saudi financial institutions who run funds that don’t need to reveal their clients, those people say.

    Through the upheaval, MbS' government has been keen to show the world that Saudi Arabia remains safe for foreign investors.
    “We need to highlight to the world that Saudi investment is good,” said a Saudi government official.
    To prop up the market, the government has bought stocks via its sovereign Public Investment Fund, or PIF, say people familiar with the matter.
    While the PIF’s recent stock purchases aren’t publicly disclosed, they’re openly discussed by Saudi traders.
    “In the bad days of Saudi Arabia, when there are troubles related to government, you see these flows coming in,” said Abdullah al Marshad, a trader at Saudi Arabia’s Samba Financial Group.
    “It tells people: Don’t worry.”
    But, as Antoine van Agtmael, who coined the term "emerging market" almost 40 years ago, warns:
    ...government intervention makes the Saudi stock exchange “more of a fake market, and that kind of undermines the trust of investors in the long run.”
    But in the short-term, all that matters is a bull market and the financial projection of economic strength, and as details of Jamal Khashoggi's murder in a Saudi consulate building emerged, the Tadawul All Shares Index (TASI) experienced 10 volatile days of trading. The Tadawul entered its steepest decline of 2018: Share prices sank 5% between Oct. 10 and 11. People familiar with the matter say most of the buying came from the PIF.

    Zoomed in the moves are all the more impressive and sudden. A selloff sent the market down about 2% on Oct. 22. In the 40 or so minutes before the market closed that day, heavy buying boosted it by more than 3%.

    How is it done? Very simple - When local share prices falter, one of these people says, PIF chief Yasir al Rumayyan tells deputies to start buying. They use the messaging program WhatsApp to contact managers at institutions including state-controlled NCB Capital Co. who manage PIF funds, this person says.

    The Journal concludes that data and interviews show the government bolstered the market by buying about $2 billion in stock that week, but of course, local (and state-sponsored) media credited the crown prince's remarks for saving the world.


    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...n-team-exposed
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