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Thread: Saudi Arabia and OPEC are doomed.

  1. #631
    US President Donald Trump on Wednesday urged OPEC members not to slash production at their upcoming meeting, saying global oil prices should remain low.Trump's comment came as members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil-producing nations prepared to meet Thursday and Friday in Vienna to discuss lowering their output.
    "Hopefully OPEC will be keeping oil flows as is, not restricted. The World does not want to see, or need, higher oil prices!" Trump said on Twitter.

    More at: https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-ask...151252467.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
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  3. #632
    Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih met with the U.S. Special Representative for Iran, Brian Hook, on Wednesday, a day before OPEC is meeting to discuss new production cuts to rebalance the market, Reuters reported, quoting sources familiar with the meeting.
    While the topic of the Saudi-U.S. meeting was not immediately clear, it’s probably safe to assume that the energy minister of OPEC’s de facto leader and the U.S. official for Iran discussed the current and future impact of the U.S. sanctions on Iran on the global oil market.
    According to S&P Global Platts, the meeting between al-Falih and Hook, which neither side confirmed or agreed to comment, may have been held to exchange views on Saudi Arabia’s position at Thursday’s OPEC meeting and what level of production the cartel and allies might need to keep in order to factor in more losses of Iranian oil supply.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...EC-Summit.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  5. #633
    After six hours of discussions, OPEC didn’t agree on Thursday on any specific oil production cut agreement as members are quarrelling on how to divvy up the production cuts and who will be exempt from reducing output, while all signs point to the cartel waiting to see how much Russia will agree to cut before announcing a possible deal.
    OPEC canceled its scheduled after-meeting press conference on Thursday and Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said the cartel was still “deliberating” an agreement, after the meeting ended. The main proposal that was discussed was a cut of around 1 million bpd.
    “I am not confident of an agreement,” al-Falih said, adding that “Russia is not ready for a substantial cut.”
    Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak will be joining the talks with non-OPEC on Friday, after having received instructions from President Vladimir Putin on Russia’s position on joining the cuts.
    Even without having to wait for Russia’s consent, the OPEC meeting was more contentious than usual, with the main “sticking point” being getting agreement from all producers, according to the Saudi minister.
    Another sticking point was who could be exempt from the cuts.


    Apart from counting barrels and looking at demand forecasts, OPEC was dealing today with discontent from some members who blame Saudi Arabia for creating the oversupply by pumping at records, and for giving non-OPEC Russia a very big say in the cartel’s oil production policy.
    The deal-or-no-deal saga continues on Friday, while the oil market was left hanging, with prices down 3% at 1:16 p.m. EDT.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...The-Table.html


    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  6. #634
    Update: It would appear OPEC+ talks are over... Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak won’t make it back to Vienna Thursday to discuss cutting oil output with the OPEC+ group of crude producing countries, RIA Novosti reports, citing the ministry.

    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ement-tomorrow

    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  7. #635
    Qatar quits OPEC
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Dr. Ron Paul. "Stand up for what you believe in, even if you are standing alone." - Sophie Magdalena Scholl
    "War is the health of the State." - Randolph Bourne "Freedom is the answer. ... Now, what's the question?" - Ernie Hancock.

  8. #636
    The U.S.’s fastest growing oil field may have even more to give.The Permian’s Delaware Basin, the less drilled part of the giant West Texas and New Mexico oil field, holds more than twice the amount of crude as its sister, the Midland Basin, the U.S. Geological Service said Thursday.
    The Wolfcamp Shale and Bone Spring rock formations in the Delaware hold an estimated 46.3 billion barrels, the scientists said in their first assessment of the area. In addition, it holds about 281 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, about 18 times the amount in the Midland Basin, which is more heavily drilled and better known.
    The Midland and Delaware estimates are the USGS’s “largest continuous oil and gas assessments ever released,” Dr. Jim Reilly, the organization’s director, said in a statement. The amount consists of “undiscovered, technically recoverable resources,” the USGS said.
    The study only looked at the two rock formations, which are both well known to operators including Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc, EOG Resources Inc. and Occidental Petroleum Corp. Industry experts say there are as many as a dozen so-called ‘pay zones’ in the area.


    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meet-...100000276.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  9. #637
    OPEC and its Russia-led allies agreed on Friday to slash oil production by more than the market had expected despite pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to reduce the price of crude.The producer club will curb output from January by 0.8 million barrels per day versus October levels while non-OPEC allies contribute an additional 0.4 million bpd of cuts, in a move to be reviewed at a meeting in April.
    Oil prices jumped about 5 percent to more than $63 a barrel as the combined cut of 1.2 million bpd was larger than the minimum 1 million bpd that the market had expected.


    The OPEC deal had hung in the balance for two days - first on fears that Russia would cut too little, and later on concerns that Iran, whose crude exports have been depleted by U.S. sanctions, would receive no exemption and block the agreement.
    But after hours of talks, Iran gave OPEC the green light and Russia said it was ready to cut more.
    Russia gave a commitment to reduce output by 228,000 bpd from October levels of 11.4 million bpd, though it said the cuts would be gradual and take place over several months.
    The country's energy minister, Alexander Novak, said Russian President Vladimir Putin had discussed an output decrease with Saudi Prince Mohammed.
    Iraq, OPEC's second-largest producer, pledged to cut 140,000 bpd. Falih said Saudi production had dropped to 10.7 million bpd in December from 11.1 million in November and was set to decline to 10.2 million bpd in January.
    Iran, Libya and Venezuela were effectively given exemptions. Nigeria, which has been exempt since the previous round of cuts from January 2017, agreed to participate.

    Bob McNally, president of U.S.-based Rapidan Energy Group, said the details of the cut were "fuzzy" and would likely result in a lesser reduction than the headline figure.
    "President Trump will not be happy to see today’s headlines, but how strongly he reacts depends mainly on whether crude prices rise strongly as a result in coming days and weeks."

    More at: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/opec-...--finance.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  10. #638
    After Russia agreed on Friday to cut its oil production as part of the non-OPEC group tasked with cutting 400,000 bpd of oil production, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said it would take Russia “months” to get down to its requested level.
    While there were no specific figures or targets released to the public for each individual member of the OPEC and non-OPEC groups to hit, non-OPEC was saddled with a 400,000 bpd burden, while OPEC itself agreed to cut 800,000 bpd. Unofficial sources, according to Tass, has Russia’s portion of the cuts pegged at 228,000 bpd, which is 2% of its October levels.
    Shortly after the meeting concluded on Friday, Alexander Novak dampened high spirits among the oil bulls. “The oil production will be reduced, just as two years ago, as quickly as possible in terms of technology. I think it will take several months,” Novak said at the after-meeting press conference.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...Implement.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  11. #639
    Saudi Arabia could reduce its daily crude oil shipments abroad by as much as 1 million barrels next month, Reuters reports, quoting unnamed sources close to Riyadh. According to them, the move would be motivated by weaker demand due to seasonal patterns in consumption and Saudi Arabia’s commitment to the new production cut agreed last week in Vienna.
    In total, the sources said, Riyadh will likely export an average 7.3 million bpd in January. This compares with less than 8 million bpd this month, also a decline from November, when the Kingdom exported 8.3 million bpd.
    Saudi Arabia will once again shoulder the greatest burden of the OPEC-wide cuts, cutting 500,000 bpd from its December production levels, which stand at an average 10.7 million bpd, the same as in October. The cartel and its partners agreed to cut production from October levels, by 2.5 percent for every OPEC member besides Libya, Iran, and Venezuela.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...ext-Month.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  12. #640
    OPEC and its non-OPEC partners are set to officially sign a cooperation agreement in March of next year, the UAE’s energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said, according to Reuters.
    The agreement will be officially signed in March in Saudi Arabia, the oil minister said, and will seek to align OPEC with non-OPEC oil producers, most importantly Russia, on matters likely to include achieving market balance—specifically production quotas. The term “market balance” is the new phrase OPEC is using instead of referencing specific oil prices, after OPEC in October steered its members away from any words that may put it at odds with proposed U.S. legislation called the NOPEC Act.
    OPEC and a group of non-OPEC members reached an agreement on Friday to cut production starting in January 2019. OPEC’s portion of the production cuts was 800,000 bpd, with Saudi Arabia’s accounting for 500,000 bpd of that. The non-OPEC countries agreed to 400,000 bpd of the production cut, with Russia accounting for approximately 230,000 bpd of the 400,000.
    Russia, for its part, said it would take “months” for that level of cut to be achieved. Likewise, OPEC’s production cuts are unlikely to shrink by 800,000 bpd immediately on January 1st, and will more than likely take months as well.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...-In-March.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  14. #641
    The commissioning of a mega refinery and petrochemical complex worth US$44 billion and involving Saudi Aramco and ADNOC has been pushed out by two years to 2025, a top executive at the Indian consortium part of the project told Reuters on Tuesday.
    Ratnagiri Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd (RPPL), the joint venture company responsible for the huge 1.2 million bpd complex construction and development, had initially scheduled the commissioning for 2023. According to the website of the joint venture, the refinery is expected to be commissioned by the year 2025, and is planned to produce high-quality automotive and aviation fuels, plus a wide range of petrochemical products.
    “The project will be completed in 2024 and commissioning will be in 2025,” B. Ashok, the chief executive of RPPL, told Reuters on Tuesday.
    The joint venture company now has more detailed information on the refinery configuration and the availability of people to build it, according to Ashok.
    In June this year, Saudi Aramco and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) signed a framework agreement and a memorandum of understanding with a consortium of Indian national oil companies to join the mega project at Ratnagiri in the Maharashtra state on India’s west coast.

    By investing in the giant Indian refinery, the national oil companies of leading OPEC producers Saudi Arabia and the UAE would secure off-take for their crude in a strategic fast-growing oil market in Asia.
    However, the process of land acquisition for the new giant complex has been put on hold due to strong opposition from local farmers, many of whom depend on their land for their income and livelihoods, the chief minister of Maharashtra, Devendra Fadnavis, said in November. According to Reuters, thousands of farmers are not eager to give up their land.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...y-Delayed.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  15. #642
    Russia is planning to reduce its oil production by 50,000 bpd to 60,000 bpd in January as part of the new OPEC+ deal, and will not be cutting its 228,000-bpd share outright at the start of the agreement, Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday.
    Russia has already drafted a timetable for how much oil production it would reduce each month until it reaches its share of the OPEC/non-OPEC production cut, Novak said, reaffirming Moscow’s position that its reduction would be gradual, just like in the previous agreement between OPEC and the Russia-led non-OPEC partners.
    While Russia will be making the lion’s share of the non-OPEC 400,000-bpd cut, it would take months to reach the 228,000-bpd production reduction, Novak said on Friday, after OPEC and its allies sealed the deal.
    The agreement calls for 2.5 percent cuts from the October production levels, which for Russia was a post-Soviet record high of 11.4 million bpd.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...n-January.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  16. #643
    A variant of the Shamoon malware that hit Saudi Aramco’s servers six years ago is back, Axios reports, citing a release from the cybersecurity unit of Alphabet, Chronicle. According to the Chronicle release, the company had detected a file infected with Shamoon in its database VirusTotal.
    The malware, Chronicle said, was uploaded from Italy and is different from the previous two variants. Those moved through networks via pre-programmed credentials while this one stays on the computer it is installed on first. There is no command and control infrastructure that would allow the attackers to communicate with the virus, and what the virus does this time is encrypt all files irreversibley rather than replacing them with politically significant images, Axios reports.
    While the cybersecurity experts at Chronicle figure out what the malware is all about this time, they do note it comes on the heels of a report from Italy’s oilfield services major Saipem that it had become the target of a cyberattack, with the most severe blow suffered by its network in the Middle East.
    Reuters quoted Saipem’s head of digital and innovation operations, Mauro Piasere, as saying the company’s servers in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait had been affected by malware, with the origin of the attack Chennai, India.

    “The servers involved have been shut down for the time being to assess the scale of the attack,” Piasere said.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...2-Is-Back.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  17. #644
    OPEC+ will need to stay 700,000 bpd below its agreed targets of 31.8 million bpd through 2019 in order to bring a recovery in Brent prices to the $70 level, Rystad Energy says.
    The OPEC countries and Russia agreed on December 7 to cut oil production by 1.2 million bpd in 2019 – slightly larger than the 1.0 million bpd cut expected by many observers.
    “The OPEC+ agreement predictably came up short of what Rystad Energy argued would be required to fully balance the market in 2019. The agreed production cuts will not be enough to ensure sustained and immediate recovery in oil prices. The muted market reaction seen thus far comes as no surprise to us”, Rystad Energy head of oil market research Bjornar Tonhaugen says.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...Should-Do.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  18. #645
    Saudi Arabia decided in 2016 to impose taxes on expat dependents as part of Crown Prince MbS drive of Saudisation of the economy. Bloomberg writes; Announced in 2016 as part of a drive to increase non-oil government revenue — a key goal of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s economic transformation plan — the fees have been unpopular with business owners in a country accustomed to cheaper foreign labor. Partly as a result, hundreds of thousands of foreigners have left the kingdom, hitting the already-struggling economy but failing to make much of a dent in Saudi unemployment.
    As of earlier this year over 800,000 expats had left the country. Now the country contemplates of removing or reducing the “fee/tax” as the economy falters. Bloomberg continues;
    While it’s unlikely the fees will be canceled altogether, a ministerial committee is looking at modifying or restructuring them, one of the people said. A decision is expected within weeks, two of the people said.
    All this comes back of the fact Saudisation is not working. The working age population in Saudi Arabia have in essence no desire to with work jobs equivalent to their skill levels. Business Insider reports;
    Many companies are reported to be circumventing the policy’s local employee quota requirement by hiring Saudis and paying them small salaries for what are in effect bogus jobs — a process termed “fake Saudisation.
    “Employers say young Saudi men and women are lazy and are not interested in working and accuse Saudi youth of preferring to stay at home rather than to take a low-paying job that does not befit the social status of a Saudi job seeker,” Bassnawi said, adding that fake Saudisation “could create a generation of young men and women who are not interested in finding a job and who prefer to get paid for doing nothing.”
    Saudi Arabia is in a difficult situation. Their disastrous war in Yemen costs about $200m/daily. Recent oil declines hit the Saudi economy harder than any other country. With its total dependence on foreigners on every facet of its society there is risk continues low oil prices and a lack of economic development in the country will lead to disaster. Maybe the only way Saudis might get some leeway is that there is a War in the Middle East.


    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...y-and-military
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  19. #646
    It’s the time of the year when oil companies start announcing their budgets for next year and besides a steady albeit guarded optimism, one thing stands out: oil majors are doubling down on their shale endeavors.
    Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Hess Corp all announced their capex plans for next year in the last few days and all three have big plans for U.S. shale. In fact, Conoco said it would allocate half of its budget on onshore operations in the United States, while Hess Corp said the bulk of its US$1.89 billion production growth budget, or US$1.425 billion, would be poured into the Bakken play.
    Chevron has earmarked US$3.6 billion for expanding its production in the Permian and another US$1.6 billion will be invested in other shale plays in the United States. That makes a total of US$5.2 billion for U.S. shale, which is substantially higher than this year’s budget of US$4.3 billion.
    Anadarko, which made its 2019 spending plans public last month, said it planned to allocate more than two-thirds of its 2019 budget to shale operations, with a particular focus on the Delaware Basin in the Permian and the DJ basin in Colorado.
    According to Bloomberg, shale has become “a safe haven” for Big Oil amid the recent increased volatility in prices. The argument is that shale production costs are much lower than a few years ago and combine with the opportunity for a steady production increase and quicker returns than conventional projects.


    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...rice-Drop.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  20. #647
    Now nearly a week removed from the OPEC+ agreement, confidence in the efficacy of the deal is becoming shaky.
    Immediately after OPEC+ announced cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), a flurry of reports from oil analysts and investment banks congratulated the group on a job well done. After all, the 1.2 mb/d figure was larger than the market had anticipated.
    However, reality is beginning to set in. First, the cuts might not be realized in January, despite the promise. Russia indicated that it was going to slow walk the cuts, phasing in an initial 50,000 to 60,000 bpd in reductions in January. This is significant because Russia is the main actor in the non-OPEC cohort. The non-OPEC group is expected to slash output by 400,000 bpd, but if Russia is only going to do its part gradually over the next few months, the non-OPEC cuts might not reach the promised levels anytime soon. Moreover, because there are no country-specific allotments, it will be hard to hold any producer accountable.
    That undermines confidence in the deal. “Compared to early last week, the outcome was rather disappointing, the whole process wasn’t convincing, and it’s still uncertain whether they will actually cut,” ABN Amro senior energy economist Hans van Cleef told Bloomberg.
    While oil traders are suddenly doubting the integrity of the deal, even if OPEC+ were to adhere to its promised cuts, it still might not be enough. That’s because there are other factors that could leave the market oversupplied. Cracks in the global economy are growing, demand is showing signs of strain, and supply continues to rise.
    The EIA just issued its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, and the agency still expects significant production growth from U.S. shale despite the downturn in prices. The EIA lowered its forecasted 2019 WTI prices by $10 per barrel from its previous report, yet it kept its supply forecast unchanged – it still thinks that U.S. oil production will rise from 10.9 mb/d in 2018 to 12.1 mb/d in 2019, despite the significant downward revision in prices.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...nt-Cut-It.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  21. #648
    WTI prices briefly popped above $52 before fading quickly after Bloomberg reported that after flooding the US market in recent months, Saudi Arabia plans to slash exports starting in January in an effort to dampen visible build-ups in crude inventories.

    Bloomberg reports that, according to people briefed on the plans of state oil company Saudi Aramco, American-based oil refiners have been told to expect much lower shipments from the kingdom in January than in recent months following the OPEC agreement to reduce production


    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ng-oil-exports
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  23. #649
    The Wall Street Journal has exposed Saudi Arabia's stock market rescue squad...
    The Journal pulls no punches in turning the conspiracy theory into conspiracy fact, noting that the government of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has spent billions to counter selloffs in recent months.
    According to a Wall Street Journal analysis of trading data and interviews with multiple people with direct knowledge of government intervention efforts, the Saudi government has placed huge buy orders, often in the closing minutes of negative trading days, to boost the market.
    Most notably, while the Saudi stock exchange normally discloses how much stock the government buys, the recent purchases after political crises have been concealed from public view. That is because the government, rather than buying stock directly, has routed its money through asset managers at Saudi financial institutions who run funds that don’t need to reveal their clients, those people say.

    Through the upheaval, MbS' government has been keen to show the world that Saudi Arabia remains safe for foreign investors.
    “We need to highlight to the world that Saudi investment is good,” said a Saudi government official.
    To prop up the market, the government has bought stocks via its sovereign Public Investment Fund, or PIF, say people familiar with the matter.
    While the PIF’s recent stock purchases aren’t publicly disclosed, they’re openly discussed by Saudi traders.
    “In the bad days of Saudi Arabia, when there are troubles related to government, you see these flows coming in,” said Abdullah al Marshad, a trader at Saudi Arabia’s Samba Financial Group.
    “It tells people: Don’t worry.”
    But, as Antoine van Agtmael, who coined the term "emerging market" almost 40 years ago, warns:
    ...government intervention makes the Saudi stock exchange “more of a fake market, and that kind of undermines the trust of investors in the long run.”
    But in the short-term, all that matters is a bull market and the financial projection of economic strength, and as details of Jamal Khashoggi's murder in a Saudi consulate building emerged, the Tadawul All Shares Index (TASI) experienced 10 volatile days of trading. The Tadawul entered its steepest decline of 2018: Share prices sank 5% between Oct. 10 and 11. People familiar with the matter say most of the buying came from the PIF.

    Zoomed in the moves are all the more impressive and sudden. A selloff sent the market down about 2% on Oct. 22. In the 40 or so minutes before the market closed that day, heavy buying boosted it by more than 3%.

    How is it done? Very simple - When local share prices falter, one of these people says, PIF chief Yasir al Rumayyan tells deputies to start buying. They use the messaging program WhatsApp to contact managers at institutions including state-controlled NCB Capital Co. who manage PIF funds, this person says.

    The Journal concludes that data and interviews show the government bolstered the market by buying about $2 billion in stock that week, but of course, local (and state-sponsored) media credited the crown prince's remarks for saving the world.


    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...n-team-exposed
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
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  24. #650
    2018 stands already as the best year for global oil and gas exploration since 2015. Guyana, Russia and the United States top the list with major discoveries.
    Discovered resources have already surpassed 8.8 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) for 2018. Rystad Energy, the independent energy research and consulting firm headquartered in Norway with offices around the world, expects the number to grow to 9.4 billion boe by year-end.




    “We at Rystad expect this discovery trend to continue into 2019 with many promising high-impact wells targeting vast potential,” says Palzor Shenga, senior analyst on Rystad Energy’s Upstream team.
    Offshore discoveries represent around 82% of total volumes. 2018 has also seen a significant uptick in the reserve replacement ratio to around 15% from 11% in 2017.
    “Global exploration activity and discoveries have halted their year-after-year decline and look set to rise in the next year. This as an exciting recovery which runs contrary to a decline in global exploration spending from 2014 to 2017,” Shenga adds.

    Exploration spending decreased by nearly 61% from 2014 to 2018. Exploration investments halted their fall in 2018 and are expected to rise in 2019.
    “This not only proves that E&P companies are once again willing to invest in exploration, but also highlights their idea of ’smart investments’ to de-risk expenditures as much as possible”, Shenga adds.
    The decrease in overall exploration costs combined with an improved success ratio have led to tremendous improvement in the discovery cost per boe.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...l-In-2018.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  25. #651
    Saudi Arabia's Finance Ministry has released its 2019 budget, which includes a 7 percent spending increase to 1.106 trillion Saudi riyals (roughly $295 billion), Arab News reported Dec. 18.

    More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...nding-increase
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  26. #652
    During the unveiling of the budget, Saudi King Salman said his country will continue paying public sector cost-of-living allowances for citizens and will boost spending to stimulate growth even as Saudi Arabia toils to close its deficit, which it won't do yet again as the kingdom forecasts a 6th consecutive budget deficit in a row, estimated to hit $35 billion in 2019.
    "We are determined to go ahead with economic reform, achieving fiscal discipline, improving transparency and empowering private sector," the King said.
    While state-funded Saudi "generosity" to keep its citizens happy - and not, say, thinking radical, revolutionary thoughts - is well known, analysts believe the continued cost-of-living allowances, first established in January 2018 and estimated by officials to cost more than $13 billion, are intended to stimulate sluggish growth but mostly shore up support for the royal family and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman after a controversy-ridden few months.
    The royal allowances of 1,000 riyals a month ($266) are paid to civil servants and military personnel, and other allowances will continue for pensioners and those living on social security. Riyadh will also increase student benefits by 10 percent for the next fiscal year, the king announced.
    There is just one problem: for Saudi Arabia to be able to meet its projected revenue and fund these generous payments it will need oil prices to rise higher. Much higher.
    Looking at the details of the budget, a few troubling details emerge: revenue is forecast to hit 975 billion riyals while total spending will rise 7% to 1.106 trillion riyals, resulting in a 131 budget deficit, or 4.2% of GDP (nearly double the size of Italy's projected deficit, if still quite smaller than the US deficit) as GDP is expected to grow from 2.3% in 2018 to 2.6% in 2019.
    And while the government expects non-oil revenue to increase from 287 billion riyals in 2018 to 313 billion in 2019, the big question mark is what happens with oil revenue. According to the budget, Saudi Arabia expects oil revenues to grow nearly 10% from 607 billion riyals in 2018 to 662 billion in 2019, it is the assumptions embedded in this revenue forecast that are, well, concerning.
    To hit 662 billion riyals in oil revenue, or $177 billion, up from $162 billion in 2018, Saudi Arabia expects near record oil output of 10.2 mmb/d sold at a price of $80/barrel, while Saudi Aramco won’t increase its allocations to the government. For reference, Brent settled just above $56 today, which means that oil has to rise at least 40% for the Saudi budget revenue assumption to be hit. Brent would have to rise an additional $15 to $95 a barrel for the kingdom to balance its budget deficit according to Bloomberg chief Middle East economist Ziad Daoud.

    As a reference, analysts expect Brent in 2019 to trade around $73 a barrel, a number which may be rather aggressive considering the recent plunge in the commodity, largely the result of continued excess output coupled with declining demand from China and other key markets.
    Even with these aggressive assumptions, which see Saudi Arabia oil revenue rising to a five-year high, the Kingdom will still post its sixth-straight budget deficit.
    Last year, Saudi Arabia based its 2018 budget on crude averaging $63 a barrel, $17 below the latest forecast even as its OPEC-defecting neighbor, Qatar, assumed $55 per barrel in its budget forecast released last week.
    So what happens if oil refuses to levitate to the desired price? As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes, "Saudi Arabia will need to take on further debt, spend its petro-dollar reserves or, at some point, introduce again austerity (as it was forced to do in 2015-2016)."


    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...-latest-budget
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  27. #653
    Contrary to initial reports that OPEC will not make public the country quotas in the new production cut deal, the cartel now plans to publish a table of each OPEC and non-OPEC individual quotas in an attempt to inject some positive sentiment in a crashing oil market, OPEC’s Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo wrote in a letter seen by Reuters.
    “In the interests of openness and transparency, and to support market sentiment and confidence, it is vital to make these production adjustments publicly available,” Barkindo wrote to the members in the letter.
    “I would urge Your Excellencies to kindly make positive announcements reinstating your countries’ commitment to implementing the agreed decisions. This is also vital to underpin trust in our decisions and to buttress ourselves from any naysayers who may doubt our commitment,” the letter says.


    In his letter seen by Reuters, OPEC’s Barkindo says that the effective reduction needs to be 3.02 percent for member countries in order to reach the 1.2-million-barrel total cut. Iran, Venezuela, and Libya were exempted from cuts, so other OPEC members had to tweak some quotas to accommodate those three ‘special consideration’ countries.
    The detailed table with country quotas is expected to be published by the end of this week.
    According to that table, Saudi Arabia’s share of the cuts is 322,000 bpd, but in his letter Barkindo praises the Kingdom for committing to cut more and reduce production to 10.2 million bpd, a deeper cut than quotas show. The leader of the non-OPEC nations Russia has been handed a 230,000-bpd cut. OPEC’s total cut is 812,000 bpd, while non-OPEC’s reduction is 383,000 bpd, according to CNBC.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...ut-Quotas.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  28. #654
    Coming off a rather abysmal week for oil prices, Baker Hughes reported a 9-rig increase for oil and gas in the United States this week—a turnaround from three losses in a row in the three weeks prior.
    The total number of active oil and gas drilling rigs now stands at 1,080 according to the report, with the number of active oil rigs increasing by 10 to reach 883 and the number of gas rigs decreasing by 1 to 197.
    The oil and gas rig count is now 149 up from this time last year, 136 of which is in oil rigs.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...On-Prices.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  29. #655
    Total U.S. oil production around 2025 will almost equal the combined production of Russia and Saudi Arabia, Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), told Turkish state-run Anadolu Agency on Friday.
    The huge growth in U.S. shale production will completely change the balance of oil markets, Birol told the news agency.
    The IEA’s Oil 2018 report from earlier this year sees the United States dominating the global oil supply growth over the next five years.
    OPEC capacity will grow only modestly by 2023, while most of the growth will come from non-OPEC countries, led by the United States, “which is becoming ever more dominant in the global oil market,” the IEA said.

    Driven by light tight oil, U.S. production is seen growing by 3.7 million bpd by 2023, more than half of the total global production capacity growth of 6.4 million bpd expected by then. Total liquids production in the United States—including conventional oil, shale, and natural gas liquids—will reach nearly 17 million bpd by 2023, “easily making it the top global producer, and nearly matching the level of its domestic products demand,” the IEA said in March this year.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...n-By-2025.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  30. #656
    If the goal of the OPEC+ cuts was to boost oil prices, then the deal is clearly failing.
    OPEC+ is scrambling to figure out a way to rescue oil prices from another deep downturn. WTI is now down into the mid-$40s and Brent into the mid-$50s, both a 15-month low. U.S. shale continues to soar, even if shale producers themselves are now facing financial trouble with prices so low. Oil traders are clearly skeptical that OPEC+ is either willing or capable of balancing the oil market.
    OPEC+ thought they secured a strong deal in Vienna in early December, but more needs to be done, it seems. OPEC’s Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo wrote a letter to the cartel’s members, arguing that they need to increase the cuts. Initially, the OPEC+ coalition suggested that producers should lower output by 2.5 percent, but Barkindo said that the cuts need to be more like 3 percent in order to reach the overall 1.2 million-barrel-per-day reduction.
    More importantly, the group needs to detail how much each country should be producing. “In the interests of openness and transparency, and to support market sentiment and confidence, it is vital to make these production adjustments publicly available,” Barkindo told members in the letter, according to Reuters. By specifying exactly how much each country will reduce, the thinking seems to be, it will go a long way to assuaging market anxiety about the group’s seriousness.
    Still, the plunge in oil prices this month is evidence that traders are not convinced. The view is “that the U.S. will continue to grow like gangbusters regardless of price and overwhelm any OPEC action,” Helima Croft, the chief commodities strategist at Canadian broker RBC, told the Wall Street Journal. “Unless there is a real geopolitical blowup, it could take time for these cuts to really shift sentiment.”

    While cuts from producers like Saudi Arabia will help take supply off of the market, OPEC might help erase the surplus in another unintended way. Bloomberg raises the possibility that low oil prices could increase turmoil in some OPEC member states. The price meltdown between 2014 and 2016 led to, or at least exacerbated, outages in Libya, Venezuela and Nigeria. The same could happen again.
    Just about all OPEC members need much higher oil prices in order to balance their books. Saudi Arabia needs roughly $88 per barrel for its budget to breakeven. Libya needs $114. Nigeria needs $127. Venezuela needs a whopping $216. Only Kuwait – at $48 per barrel – can balance its books at prevailing prices. Brent is trading in the mid-$50s right now.

    There haven’t yet been any dramatic revisions to 2019 oil demand from leading energy forecasters, such as the EIA or IEA. But, then again, the financial instability and the souring oil market have only cropped up recently. The IEA has maintained a 1.4-mb/d growth rate for demand next year, but take that with a grain of salt. Demand revisions could be forthcoming. OPEC+ may have to keep its supply curbs in place for the full year in 2019, but it’s unclear if even that can push prices back up to where they were two months ago.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...il-Market.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  32. #657
    Iraq is willing to extend the OPEC and non-OPEC oil production cut agreement in April, oil minister Thamir Ghadhban said on Sunday.Ghadhban said he agreed with the Saudi oil minister's expectation that the decision would be renewed, adding that Iraq would be watching oil prices and how they react over time.

    https://news.yahoo.com/iraq-oil-mini...114639271.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  33. #658
    Just a couple of weeks after OPEC and its partners agreed to implement another round of production cuts, the cartel is ready to extend these cuts as international prices continue to fall.
    Reuters reports, citing the oil minister of the UAE, that OPEC is prepared to call an extraordinary meeting as it enters “whatever it takes” mode yet again.


    Speaking at a news conference in Kuwait, UAE’s Suhail al-Mazrouei said it would not be a problem for the cartel to extend the period of the cuts, initially set at four months, beginning in January.
    “What if the 1.2 million barrels of cuts are not enough? I am telling you that if it is not, we will meet and see what is enough and we will do it,” Mazrouei said, adding “The plan (to cut oil production) is well studied but if it does not work, we always have the power in OPEC to call for an extraordinary meeting. If we are required to extend for (another) six months, we will do it... I can assure you an extension will not be a problem.”

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...Oil-Falls.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  34. #659
    Coming off a rather abysmal week for oil prices, Baker Hughes reported a 3-rig increase for oil and gas in the United States this week.
    The total number of active oil and gas drilling rigs now stands at 1,083 according to the report, with the number of active oil rigs increasing by 2 to reach 885 and the number of gas rigs increasing by 1 to 198.
    The oil and gas rig count is now 154 up from this time last year, 138 of which is in oil rigs.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...or-Winter.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  35. #660
    Energy companies in the Arab countries in the Persian Gulf may resume issuing more debt and borrowing more money for expansion plans after oil prices plunged by 40 percent from the four-year highs that hit just three months ago.
    The oil and gas firms in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) had issued record debt in 2017 to finance expansion plans, but the rise in oil prices in 2018 eased the gaps in the Gulf Arab countries’ budgets, and total energy company bond issues and loans in the region declined this year compared to 2017.
    Yet, as oil prices crumbled in the past two months of 2018, energy firms in the Gulf may have to rely on more debt in 2019 to fund plans to boost production and maintain reserves, according to analysts who spoke to Bloomberg.
    “Companies will look to issue more debt,” Ashley Kelty, an oil and gas research analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald Europe, told Bloomberg.
    “They won’t be going back to the ‘care and maintenance’ of a few years ago. They will use debt because it’s still relatively cheap,” according to Kelty.


    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...s-Crashed.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

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