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Thread: Saudi Arabia and OPEC are doomed.

  1. #721
    OPEC will likely wait until June to decide how to proceed with the production cuts as the initially set date for review, April, could be too soon to assess how the cuts and the supply from exempted and sanctioned Iran and Venezuela would affect the oil market, Reuters reported on Monday, citing three OPEC sources.

    The key factors that OPEC will be watching in the next two months are how tight supply from Iran and Venezuela would be, considering that the current U.S. waivers expire in early May, while Venezuela’s production and exports are likely to further drop in the coming months as the political crisis there continues.
    As things stand now, OPEC is likely to defer the decision from April to June and the likely scenario is to extend the agreement, the OPEC sources tell Reuters.
    “So far the likely decision is to extend the agreement in June. Nothing much is planned for April, just to discuss the OPEC and non-OPEC (cooperation pact),” one OPEC source told Reuters.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...l-To-June.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
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    A Zero Hedge comment



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  3. #722
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    ....to assess how the cuts and the supply from exempted and sanctioned Iran and Venezuela would affect the oil market.
    Russian oil imports surge in the U.S.

    https://twitter.com/c_sesin/status/1103006274852212736
    Last edited by goldenequity; 03-05-2019 at 03:03 PM.

  4. #723
    Libya’s largest oil field, Sharara, is back in operation after almost three months of suspension, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing unnamed sources familiar with the situation.
    The field was originally closed for production in December, when clashes between militant groups forced the National Oil Corporation of Libya to institute a force majeure, which was only lifted yesterday.
    The groups that occupied Sharara in early December with demands for better economic conditions and power supply security. The occupation lasted until early February, when the Libyan National Army, a group affiliated with the eastern Libyan government, took control of the field. The force majeure remained in place as the NOC refused to yield to demands for payments, arguing this would set a dangerous precedent.
    Then, however, the LNA faced the Petroleum Facilities Guard, an old adversary and a group loyal to the UN-recognized Libyan government. The situation was resolved only last week with mediation from the United Arab Emirates.
    According to NOC’s chairman, Mustafa Sanalla, the three-month blockade of the field had cost it US$1.8 million and 20,000 bpd in lost production capacity as a result of vandalism and looting.


    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...uspension.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  5. #724
    Companies in the United Arab Emirates have hit a 10-year high for job cuts as the country's struggling economy continues to negatively affect the non-oil private sector, Bloomberg reported March 5.

    More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...h-10-year-high
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  6. #725
    https://twitter.com/asghamdi/status/1103596164811759619



    Hat Tip: Goldenequity
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  7. #726
    The listing of Saudi Arabia’s energy giant Aramco is on track to take place in 2021, Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said, echoing earlier assurances he and Aramco’s chief executive made over the past year.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...-For-2021.html

    Aramco is the IPO of the future...............................and always will be.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  8. #727
    Saudi Arabia pumped 10.1 million bpd of crude in February, a Saudi official told S&P Global Platts on Friday, in yet another sign that OPEC’s largest producer and de facto leader is cutting much deeper than it had pledged under the OPEC+ production deal that began in January.
    Under the OPEC/non-OPEC deal for a total of 1.2 million bpd cuts between January and June, Saudi Arabia’s share is a cut of 322,000 bpd from the October level of 10.633 million, to reduce output to 10.311 million bpd.
    At the end of January, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told Bloomberg that Saudi Arabia’s February crude oil production would likely be close to 10.1 million bpd, down from around 10.2 million bpd for January.
    In an interview with the Financial Times in February, al-Falih said that the Saudis would further cut production to around 9.8 million bpd in March, some 500,000 bpd below the commitment in the OPEC+ deal. Al-Falih also said that Saudi Arabia would be cutting its crude oil exports to near 6.9 million bpd in March, slashed from 8.2 million bpd just three-four months ago.
    In their push to rebalance the oil market and firm up oil prices, the Saudis are also significantly reducing exports to the most transparently reported oil market, the United States. Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports to the U.S. are falling sharply, with shipments standing at just 1.6 million barrels near the end of February, according to U.S. customs data compiled by Bloomberg, versus 5.75 million barrels a year ago.

    OPEC’s production dropped to a four-year low in February, helped by Saudi Arabia and its Arab Gulf allies overachieving in their shares of the cuts, the monthly Reuters survey showed last week.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...s-Promise.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  9. #728
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  11. #729
    Asia is drowning in Chinese fuels and things are about to get worse over the next three years as new refining capacity in the world’s second-largest economy begins operating.
    There are several factors at play here, including the rise of the teapots, slowing economic growth and perhaps a not accurate enough forecast of future fuel demand trends in China.
    According to Bloomberg columnist David Fickling, the teapots—China’s independent, private refiners—are the main driver of the glut that is choking off Asian refiners’ margins and pressuring prices.
    Indeed, the emergence of independent refiners in China accounted for a large portion of the import surge we have witnessed in the direction of China in the past four years. The 2014 price crash certainly helped but, as Fickling notes, it’s teapots that have led the increase in imports while state oil companies have not changed their intake levels in any notable way since 2015 when the independent refiners came on the scene.
    Yet economic growth outlooks have played their part in the rising glut as well. China is what every commodity analysts looks to when it’s time to forecast the demand prospects of one commodity or another. Oil demand growth in both China and the Asia-Pacific as a whole has been strong, but even strong demand could slacken off and this seems to be what’s happening with China. Unfortunately, it is happening as plans to boost local refining capacity are being put into action.


    Already strong exports to other Asian markets have combined with higher oil prices to pressure refiners’ margins and coupled with rising labor costs are pushing many in the industry close to the brink of collapse, Reuters’ Gloystein noted. Indeed, it looks like OPEC’s strategy for price control might play a bad joke on the biggest oil market in the world.
    This year, Bloomberg’s Fickling said citing Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Lu Wang, some 890,000 bpd in new refining capacity will come on stream in China. Next year, the amount of new capacity to start operating will stand at 1.08 million bpd. In 2021, another 1.12 million bpd will be added.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...t-In-Asia.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  12. #730
    Offering the first indication that the OPEC+ cartel of major oil exporters intends to extend cuts, Saudi Arabia has reportedly told its clients that they will receive significantly less oil than they had requested in April, extending deeper-than-agreed oil production cuts into a second month, Bloomberg reported.

    The report, which provoked a spike in oil prices, suggests that "Riyadh is determined to regain control of the oil market as prices remain well below the level that many OPEC members need to cover their government spending." Oil rose as much as 1% on the news, before fading some gains.



    Aramco, Saudi's state-owned oil producer, has given customers their allocations for the next month, and they're some 635,000 barrels short of what refiners had asked for.
    With Venezuela output falling further due to U.S. sanctions and power blackouts, oil refiners put in requests - or nominations in industry jargon - for Saudi crude of more than 7.6 million barrels a day for April, the person said. However, the kingdom will supply overseas customers with less than 7 million barrels a day, 635,000 barrels less than refiners asked for however, they said.
    The second consecutive month of deep production cuts shows the world’s largest oil exporter is determined to re-balance the market more quickly even though events in Venezuela have left some refiners short of crude. The crisis has worsened a deficit of so-called heavy-sour crude that many refiners use to make diesel.
    Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil monopoly, decided its monthly nominations over the weekend and told clients early on Monday their individual allocations. Although not identical, Saudi crude can be used as an alternative to Venezuelan crude and is also a good alternative for Iranian oil, also in short supply due to U.S. sanctions.
    OPEC+ agreed late last year to cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day through the end of March as producers scrambled to reverse a stunning drop in oil prices late last year. The cuts have sent exports - primarily to the US - tumbling.

    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...-through-april
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  13. #731
    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will once again become a nemesis for U.S. shale if the U.S. Congress passes a bill dubbed NOPEC, or No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act, Bloomberg reported this week, citing sources present at a meeting between a senior OPEC official and U.S. bankers.
    The oil minister of the UAE, Suhail al-Mazrouei, reportedly told lenders at the meeting that if the bill was made into law that made OPEC members liable to U.S. anti-cartel legislation, the group, which is to all intents and purposes indeed a cartel, would break up and every member would boost production to its maximum.
    This would be a repeat of what happened in 2013 and 2014, and ultimately led to another oil price crash like the one that saw Brent crude and WTI sink below US$30 a barrel. As a result, a lot of U.S. shale-focused, debt-dependent producers would go under.
    Bankers who provide the debt financing that shale producers need are the natural target for opponents of the NOPEC bill. Banks got burned during the 2014 crisis and are still recovering and regaining their trust in the industry. Purse strings are being loosened as WTI climbs closer to US$60 a barrel, but lenders are certainly aware that this is to a large extent the result of OPEC action: the cartel is cutting production again and the effect on prices is becoming increasingly visible.

    Indeed, if OPEC starts pumping again at maximum capacity, even without Iran and Venezuela, and with continued outages in Libya, it would pressure prices significantly, especially if Russia joins in. After all, its state oil companies have been itching to start pumping more.
    The NOPEC legislation has little chance of becoming a law. It is not the first attempt by U.S. legislators to make OPEC liable for its cartel behavior, and none of the others made it to a law. However, Al-Mazrouei’s not too subtle threat highlights the weakest point of U.S. shale: the industry’s dependence on borrowed money.

    The American Petroleum Institute has vocally opposed NOPEC, almost as vocally as OPEC itself, and BP’s Bob Dudley said this week at CERAWeek in Houston that NOPEC “could have severe unintended consequences if it unleashed litigation around the world.”“Severe unintended consequences” is not a phrase bankers like to hear. Chances are they will join in the opposition to the legislation to keep shale’s wheels turning.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Int...-US-Shale.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  14. #732



    Last edited by goldenequity; 03-17-2019 at 07:54 AM.

  15. #733
    Oil prices were slightly up early on Monday as the market was assessing the news that a panel of the OPEC+ allies is recommending that partners cancel a scheduled extraordinary meeting in mid-April, leaving the decision for the cuts extension for a meeting at the end of June instead.
    At 08:46 a.m. EDT on Monday, WTI Crude was up 0.07 percent at $58.56, while Brent Crude was trading up 0.24 at $67.32, with both benchmarks recovering from losses earlier in the day.
    “In consideration that market fundamentals are unlikely to materially change in the next two months, the JMMC adopted a recommendation to forego the full Ministerial Meeting in April and instead schedule a JMMC meeting in May ahead of the OPEC Conference meeting on 25 June, during which a decision will be taken on the production target for the second half of 2019,” the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) said at the end of a meeting in Baku, Azerbaijan.
    For several weeks, OPEC officials have been signaling that mid-April would have been too early to assess the actual impact of the sanctions on Venezuela and the U.S. policy on the waivers for Iranian oil customers, after the current waivers expire in early May.
    “The consensus we heard ... is that April will be premature to make any production decision for the second half,” Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said, as carried by Reuters.
    “Looking at the current situation, market fundamentals have been slowly improving since the latter part of last year, but I would hasten to add that much more work still needs to be done,” al-Falih said at the meeting in Baku.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...-Decision.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

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