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Thread: Saudi Arabia and OPEC are doomed.

  1. #751
    U.S. Congress should debate whether to reduce the emergency crude oil stored in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), because America’s oil production boom has diminished its reliance on imports, U.S. Secretary of Energy Rick Perry said at a Senate hearing on Tuesday.
    “Do we need that big of a reserve, particularly with the growth of the pipeline infrastructure we have and the growth in that infrastructure that’s going to occur over the next decade?” Reuters quoted Secretary Perry as saying at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources.


    As of March 29, 2019, the SPR held a total of 649.1 million barrels of crude oil, including 254.6 million barrels of sweet crude and 394.5 million barrels of sour crude oil.
    The current storage capacity of the SPR is 713.5 million barrels.
    The SPR was set up in the 1970s when the Arab oil embargo created a fuel crisis in the United States.
    According to Secretary Perry, the world has changed a lot since the emergency reserve was created, with the U.S. now the world’s top oil producer. Therefore, Congress should consider what the proper size of the reserve should be and whether the administration should rent part of the storage capacity to private companies, Secretary Perry said.
    In February, the U.S. Department of Energy said that it planned to sell up to 6 million barrels of crude oil from the SPR, with deliveries taking place in April and May.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...m-Reserve.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  3. #752
    Over-delivering Saudi Arabia and blackouts in Venezuela helped push OPEC’s crude oil production down by 570,000 bpd from February to 30.23 million bpd in March—the lowest production from the cartel in more than four years, according to the monthly S&P Global Platts survey published on Friday.
    OPEC’s de facto leader and biggest producer, Saudi Arabia, saw its production drop in March to the lowest level since February 2017. The Saudis delivered on their promise to cut more than pledged in the pact and slashed output by another 280,000 bpd last month, with March production at 9.87 million bpd, according to the S&P Global Platts survey.
    Venezuela, for its part, saw its production drop to a 16-year-low, at 740,000 bpd, due to the massive blackouts that crippled oil production and exports in March, the Platts survey found.
    OPEC’s second-biggest producer Iraq cut its production by 100,000 bpd from February to 4.57 million bpd in March, according to the survey. This, however, was still slightly above Iraq’s 4.512 million bpd production cap under the deal.
    After an initial plunge following the U.S. sanctions on its industry, Iran’s production has been holding relatively steady over the past couple of months, and the Islamic Republic pumped 2.69 million bpd in March, the Platts survey showed.

    The resumption of operations at Libya’s biggest oil field, Sharara, pushed Libya’s production up to 1.06 million bpd in March, according to the survey.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...-Year-Low.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  5. #753
    The the number of active oil and gas rigs rose by 19 after two weeks of big losses in the United States this week according to Baker Hughes, in a sign that US production is still set for increases.
    The total number of active oil and gas drilling rigs rose by 20 rigs* according to the report with the number of active oil rigs gaining 15 to reach 831 and the number of gas rigs gaining 4 to reach 194.
    The oil and gas rig count is now just 22 up from this time last year, with oil seeing just a 23-rig increase year on year, gas rigs holding flat, and miscellaneous rigs seeing a 1-rig decrease for the year.

    Despite the drop off in the number of active rigs, US crude oil production for week ending March 29 was 12.2 million barrels—another new all-time high.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...il-Prices.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  6. #754
    Saudi Aramco, the national oil company of Saudi Arabia, is by far the largest oil company in the world. The company produces around 13 percent of the world’s oil, but its business operations have been notoriously opaque for decades. It has often been stated that the company has plenty of low-cost legacy wells that drop its overall production costs to $10 per barrel, or even lower.
    Because there was no way to audit this information, the world was left to guess at the actual breakeven costs for the world’s largest oil company. This week Saudi Aramco lifted the veil on its financial condition in a bond offering for the company. (PDF link here).
    There are many important financial details in the filing. The company is indeed the world’s most profitable, earning $111 billion on $356 billion in revenue in 2018. This is nearly double the $59.4 billion made by Apple, the world’s second-most profitable company, in 2018. It’s also over five times the $20.8 billion made by ExxonMobil last year.
    Bloomberg points out that Aramco’s “funds flow from operations” was $26 per barrel last year, which they note was worse than Shell or Total which reported $38 and $31, respectively.
    However, I found the most significant item in the prospectus to be that Saudi Aramco struggled to break even in 2016 when Brent crude averaged about $45 per barrel. Net income in 2016 was only $13 billion, and free cash flow a mere $2 billion. Contrast that with the $111 billion in income and $86 billion in free cash flow the company made in 2018 (when Brent crude averaged $71.34/bbl), and it looks like Aramco’s breakeven price is just about $40/bbl.

    No wonder OPEC threw in the towel in 2016 and decided to abandon its price war with U.S. shale. OPEC’s largest member saw its income dry up and was on the verge of posting a loss if oil prices didn’t turn around.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...ven-Price.html



    And it has to be MUCH higher to support the Saudi regime's hold on power.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  7. #755
    A senior Russian official has suggested Russia will press for an end of the OPEC+ production cuts after the end of June when the original agreement expires, Reuters reports.
    Kiril Dmitriev, head of the country’s direct investment fund, has been a staunch supporter of the OPEC+ cooperation since the beginning, which makes his latest remarks all the more significant.
    “It is quite possible that given the improving market situation and falling stocks, (OPEC and its allies) could decide in June this year to abandon supply cuts and subsequently increase output,” Reuters quoted Dmitriev as saying.
    “This decision will not mean the end of the deal but a confirmation that participants continue their coordinating efforts when it is important not only to cut but to increase output depending on market conditions,” the official added in keeping with his original stance on the partnership between the cartel and Russia.
    Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister also had comments to make about the agreement: Khalid al-Falih told media it was too early to say whether the agreement would be extended beyond the end of June, adding that next month would be crucial for where OPEC+ would go in the second half of the year.
    “JMMC will be a key decision point because we will certainly by then know where the consensus view is and, more importantly, before we ask for consensus, we will know where the fundamentals are pointing,” he said.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...fter-June.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  8. #756
    OPEC’s crude oil production dropped by more than 500,000 bpd month on month in March, to the lowest since February 2015, as Saudi Arabia followed through its commitment to cut deeper than pledged and Venezuela’s crisis, sanctions, and blackouts hit its supply harder than in previous months.
    In its closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC said on Wednesday that its secondary sources’ estimates point to total OPEC-14 crude oil production averaging 30.02 million bpd in March, down by 534,000 bpd from February, and the lowest since the February 2015 production of below 30 million bpd.
    OPEC’s de facto leader and largest producer Saudi Arabia followed through its commitment from February to cut deeper and pump well below 10 million bpd. Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production dropped by a massive 324,000 bpd from February to stand at 9.794 million bpd in March—just as Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih had said the Kingdom would do and pump around 9.8 million bpd in March, some 500,000 bpd below the 10.311-million-bpd commitment in the OPEC+ deal.
    An OPEC member exempt from these production cuts, Venezuela, contributed inadvertently to the cartel’s mission to reduce global oil supply. Venezuela’s crude oil production plunged by 289,000 bpd to below 1 million bpd—to 732,000 bpd in March, according to OPEC’s secondary sources.


    Elsewhere, the cartel’s second-largest producer Iraq also slashed production considerably, by 126,000 bpd to 4.522 million bpd according to OPEC’s secondary sources—nearly falling in line with its OPEC+ quota of 4.512 million bpd.
    Production in Iran, under U.S. sanctions and exempted from OPEC’s cuts, dropped by 28,000 bpd to 2.698 million bpd, while the third member exempted from the deal, Libya, saw its production rise by 196,000 bpd to 1.098 million bpd in March after its biggest oil field, Sharara, returned to operations last month.
    Projecting global oil demand in this month’s report, OPEC revised down its oil demand growth estimate to around 1.21 million bpd from 1.24 million bpd in last month’s report, saying that “this is due to slower-than-expected economic activity compared with the expectations of a month earlier.”

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...ns-Market.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  9. #757
    OPEC and its allies in the production cut deal are committed to rebalancing the market and will not repeat last year’s preemptive production increase to offset expectations of oil supply losses, Suhail Al Mazrouei, the energy minister of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), said on Wednesday.
    “I think we have learned the lesson. We will do what is required to balance the market. We are not going to jump the gun, pre-produce the volumes that are not required yet,” the UAE’s The National quoted Al Mazrouei as saying at the Bloomberg Invest Abu Dhabi conference today.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...-Mistakes.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  10. #758

  11. #759
    The U.S. crude oil production juggernaut continues to move forward. In 2018, U.S. production increased 17 percent over the previous year in a dynamic that is impacting both geopolitics as well as setting a new course for American global diplomacy.
    Annual U.S. crude oil production reached a record level of 10.96 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018, 1.6 million b/d higher than 2017 levels. In December 2018, monthly U.S. crude oil production reached 11.96 million b/d, the highest monthly level of crude oil production in U.S. history, the EIA said on Tuesday. Moreover, U.S. crude oil production has increased significantly over the past 10 years, driven mainly by production from tight rock formations using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, hence the U.S. shale oil revolution. The EIA now projects that U.S. crude oil production will continue to grow this year and in 2020, averaging 12.3 million b/d and 13.0 million b/d, respectively.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...Oil-Rally.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  12. #760
    Iraq is set to build an oil refinery of 150,000 bpd processing capacity in the northern city of Kirkuk, according to Iraqi Oil Minister Thamer Ghadhban.
    The ministry said that it had “put the final touches” on building the refinery in Kirkuk, which will have a capacity of 150,000 barrels per day, Ghadhban said in a statement on Monday after visiting Kirkuk, according to Reuters.
    Several Iraqi ministers visited Kirkuk this weekend to meet the governor of the province and discuss new projects and plans that have stalled, some of which were in the oil and electricity sectors.
    Oil minister Ghadhban stressed the importance of Kirkuk to the Iraqi federal government.
    Last November, Iraq resumed oil exports from the Kirkuk province, a year after it had stopped oil flows from the area due to a dispute with the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region.
    Around 300,000 bpd of crude oil previously pumped and exported in the Kirkuk province to the Turkish port of Ceyhan were shut in when the Iraqi federal government moved in October 2017 to take control over the oil fields in Kirkuk from Kurdish forces after the semi-autonomous region held a referendum that Baghdad didn’t recognize. However, the only export outlet of the Kirkuk oil is the oil pipeline of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The Iraqi federal government and the KRG had been in talks for months to try to reach an agreement on resuming Iraqi exports from Kirkuk.
    Weeks before the resumption of the Iraqi oil exports from the Kirkuk province, the Kurdistan region said that it had upgraded its oil export pipeline, boosting its capacity to 1 million bpd from 700,000 bpd, to accommodate future production growth from the region.
    “This extra capacity will accommodate future production growth from KRG producing fields, and can also be used by the federal government to export the currently stranded oil in Kirkuk and surrounding areas,” KRG’s ministry said in a statement on November 4.

    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...tan-Crude.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  14. #761
    The United States nearly doubled its oil exports in 2018, the Energy Information Administration reporting on Monday, from 1.2 million barrels per day in 2017.
    The 2.0 million barrels of oil per day exported in 2018 was in line with increased oil production, which averaged 10.9 million barrels per day last year, and was made possible by changes to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) which allowed it to load VLCCs.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...s-In-2018.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  15. #762
    Kuwait will start this year the first phase of a heavy oil field production, aiming to boost heavy crude output to 430,000 bpd from 60,000 bpd by January, the official Kuwait News Agency (KUNA) reports.
    Heavy crude oil production from the first phase of an oil field in northern Kuwait, known as “Al-Ritqa” is forecast to hit 11,000 bpd in August this year, KUNA quoted Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) as saying.
    The Al-Ritqa oil field project is aimed at boosting heavy crude oil production to 430,000 bpd from 60,000 bpd via multiple production phases by January, Fatama Al-Kanderi, who is responsible for project planning at KOC, said at a recent panel discussion organized by the Kuwaiti oil ministry.


    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...uary-2020.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  16. #763
    Saudi Arabia continued to slash its oil exports as this year progressed, with February crude shipments dropping by 227,000 bpd from January to just below 7 million bpd, as the Kingdom is determined to rebalance the market in its effort to support oil prices.
    According to data released on Thursday by the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) database, which collects self-reported figures from 114 countries, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports stood at 6.977 million bpd in February, compared to 7.254 million bpd in January and to 7.687 million bpd in December 2018, when the Kingdom started to aggressively cut oil supply to prevent another glut.
    Total Saudi crude oil and oil products exports dropped by 432,000 bpd from January to 8.44 million bpd in February 2019, according to JODI’s data.


    In an interview with the Financial Times in February, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said that the Saudis would cut production tos around 9.8 million bpd in March, some 500,000 bpd below the commitment in the OPEC+ deal. Al-Falih also said that Saudi Arabia would be cutting its crude oil exports to near 6.9 million bpd in March, slashed from the November high of 8.2 million bpd.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...-February.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

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