Originally Posted by
phill4paul
You are welcome.
Thank you, sincerely! So it looks like there has been one (1) study attempting to address this question. Regarding the study,
The research team deployed statistical devices to put a figure on the proportion of cases of hidden innocence. In particular, they deployed a technique known as “survival analysis”, to calculate the percentage of prisoners who have been taken off death row but who might still be innocent.
They also applied “sensitivity analysis”, to take into account possible cases of exonerations where the released prisoner is nonetheless guilty, and to ensure that the overall findings erred on the side of caution.
I am skeptical of advanced statistical "devices" and "analyses" which I do not understand, but nevertheless let's dive into the study.
Significance
The rate of erroneous conviction of innocent criminal defendants is often described as not merely unknown but unknowable. We use survival analysis to model this effect, and estimate that if all death-sentenced defendants remained under sentence of death indefinitely at least 4.1% would be exonerated. We conclude that this is a conservative estimate of the proportion of false conviction among death sentences in the United States.
Abstract
The rate of erroneous conviction of innocent criminal defendants is often described as not merely unknown but unknowable. There is no systematic method to determine the accuracy of a criminal conviction; if there were, these errors would not occur in the first place. As a result, very few false convictions are ever discovered, and those that are discovered are not representative of the group as a whole. In the United States, however, a high proportion of false convictions that do come to light and produce exonerations are concentrated among the tiny minority of cases in which defendants are sentenced to death. This makes it possible to use data on death row exonerations to estimate the overall rate of false conviction among death sentences. The high rate of exoneration among death-sentenced defendants appears to be driven by the threat of execution, but most death-sentenced defendants are removed from death row and resentenced to life imprisonment, after which the likelihood of exoneration drops sharply. We use survival analysis to model this effect, and estimate that if all death-sentenced defendants remained under sentence of death indefinitely, at least 4.1% would be exonerated. We conclude that this is a conservative estimate of the proportion of false conviction among death sentences in the United States.
OK, so that's pretty straight-forward actually. I understand what they did. 1.7% of death row inmates are exonerated by the current system. Just as a note, the current system uses the standard "beyond any reasonable doubt." So, of course, this is not the number of death row inmates actually innocent of the crime of which they are accused, but those for whom the evidence no longer clears that bar. The number of innocents is some much lower number. But still! 1.7% is a high number! On the other hand, that 1.7% is not the number of innocent people who get wrongfully executed, which was the number I was putting forward, as likely 0.1% - 1%. It is the number who are freed! So it's not a condemnation of the justice process, at least not for being too harsh. On the other hand one could say it's evidence that it's too lenient, that "beyond any reasonable doubt" is too high a standard and is causing a large number of the guilty to get off, to "get away with it." I would not say this, because I like the "beyond any reasonable doubt" standard.
Anyway, they extrapolated things and said "If all the non-death row people who used to be on death row but were downgraded also had lawyers from all across the nation doing an average of $5 million dollars of pro bono work for them, taking heroic measures, making extremely innovative arguments, appealing to the Supreme Court every single time, then an equal number of them would get exonerated, too." A pretty reasonable assumption. I think they're right. And if they are, that means that about 4% of death row inmates would be getting exonerated if nobody ever got downgraded off death row -- exoneration or death, that's it, no middle ground.
Actually, I take that back: they are not completely right, because they're forgetting that there's a limited supply of lawyer-hours in the US. It's so large it seems unlimited, I know, but technically there are limits. (You need higher math.) So if the number of death-row cases for left-wing lawyers to heroically take up and eternally appeal were to quadruple, each case would not actually be able to get the same level of love and attention devoted to it as presently. It just physically couldn't happen. So, the exoneration rate would accordingly go down.
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