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Thread: Why People Continue to Believe Objectively False Things

  1. #1

    Why People Continue to Believe Objectively False Things

    Why People Continue to Believe Objectively False Things

    By AMANDA TAUB and BRENDAN NYHAN MARCH 22, 2017


    “Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts,” goes the saying — one that now seems like a relic of simpler times.

    Today, President Trump is sticking with his own facts — his claim that the Obama administration wiretapped him during the election — in the face of testimony to the contrary by the F.B.I. director, James Comey.

    When asked about the accusations Mr. Trump had made on Twitter, Mr. Comey told a Senate committee on Monday, “I have no information that supports those tweets, and we have looked carefully inside the F.B.I.”

    Other government authorities have come to similar conclusions. But Sean Spicer, the White House press secretary, said after the hearing that Mr. Trump stood by his wiretap allegations despite Mr. Comey’s testimony.

    Mr. Trump’s claims may appear to his opponents to have been embarrassingly debunked. But social science research suggests that Mr. Trump’s alternative version of reality may appeal to his supporters.

    Partisan polarization is now so extreme in the United States that it affects the way that people consume and understand information — the facts they believe, and what events they think are important. The wiretapping allegations could well become part of a partisan narrative that is too powerful to be dispelled.

    Mr. Trump, perhaps unconsciously, has grasped a core truth of modern politics: that voters tend to seek out information that fits the story they want to believe, usually one in which members of the other party are the bad guys.

    Since the 1980s, Americans have been reporting increasingly negative opinions about the opposing party. Partisanship, and particularly “negative partisanship,” the rejection of the opposing party, has now become a kind of tribal identity that shapes how people define themselves and others, according to Sean Westwood, a professor at Dartmouth College who has studied partisan polarization. “It drives people to support their team at any cost, and oppose the opposing team at any cost,” he said.

    This partisan polarization affects the way Americans of all political stripes consume information. People are more likely to believe stories that come from their side of the political divide, particularly if an authority figure vouches for them. And they are more likely to share news with their preferred slant as a way of showing they are good members of their political tribe.

    Mr. Trump’s wiretap claim is particularly likely to appeal to that partisan dynamic. At its core, it is a story about Barack Obama being fundamentally untrustworthy, perhaps even dangerous to the country. Mr. Trump’s supporters, who are already more likely to believe that basic narrative, may be more likely to accept his wiretap claims.

    Sticking to his version of events will probably strengthen Mr. Trump’s base, said John Sides, a political-science professor at George Washington University who studies political communication.

    “At the end of the day, those people are going to put a floor under your approval ratings,” he said. But, he cautioned, the constant cycles of controversy are preventing him from establishing the broader appeal required to assure a successful presidency.

    One might expect that facts would convince people that Mr. Trump’s claim was baseless, but other political myths have proved remarkably robust to the sort of debunking Mr. Comey provided.

    For instance, Mr. Trump disavowed the “birther” myth in September 2016, conceding that Mr. Obama was in fact born in Hawaii. There was an increase afterward in the number of voters who said they believed Mr. Obama was born in the United States, but polling by Morning Consult suggests that part of that effect has already faded. In September, it found that 62 percent of registered voters said they believed Mr. Obama had been born in the United States, but in a follow-up poll early this month, that number had dropped to 57 percent.

    This decline cannot be attributed simply to partisan bias; it occurred among both Democrats (who went to 77 percent from 82 percent) and Republicans (down to 36 percent from 44 percent). Over time, people may simply forget the contrary evidence they’ve heard and fall back on their old beliefs.

    Even when myths are dispelled, their effects linger. The Boston College political scientist Emily Thorson conducted a series of studies showing that exposure to a news article containing a damaging allegation about a fictional political candidate caused people to rate the candidate more negatively even when the allegation was corrected and people believed it to be false.

    There are ways to correct information more effectively. Adam Berinsky of M.I.T., for instance, found that a surprising co-partisan source (a Republican member of Congress) was the most effective in reducing belief in the “death panel” myth about the Affordable Care Act.

    But in the wiretapping case, Republican lawmakers have neither supported Mr. Trump’s wiretap claims (which could risk their credibility) nor strenuously opposed them (which could prompt a partisan backlash). Instead, they have tried to shift attention to a different political narrative — one that suits the partisan divide by making Mr. Obama the villain of the piece. Rather than focusing on the wiretap allegation, they have sought to portray the House Intelligence Committee hearings on Russian interference in the election as an investigation into leaks of classified information.

    In Monday’s hearing, for instance, Representative Trey Gowdy, Republican of South Carolina, asked Mr. Comey which Obama administration officials would have had access to the leaked information, implying that officials from the previous administration must be responsible for the leaks.

    The result is that the same hearings may appear completely different to voters of different parties. Democrats may see a defeat for Mr. Trump because Mr. Comey rejected his wiretap claims and confirmed that the F.B.I. is investigating whether there was any coordination between his campaign and the Russian intelligence officials who interfered in the election.

    But Republican voters may see confirmation that the leaks of classified information were criminal, and that former Obama administration officials had means, motive and opportunity to carry out the act. A Breitbart News report, for example, breezed past Mr. Comey’s debunking of the wiretap as “already known,” then focused on leaks to the press.

    The question of whether Mr. Obama wiretapped Mr. Trump has now been answered clearly and strongly in the negative. But the myth, and its effects, seem likely to continue unless Republicans denounce it more forcefully.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/22/u...-believed.html
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul



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  3. #2
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
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  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    case in point. Thanks!
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  5. #4
    Objectively speaking, the New York Times is a leftist-neoconservative-establishment propaganda outlet, and that article is filled with hypocrisy and spin.
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  6. #5
    Challenging Trump on facts is seen as attacking him and his core supporters rally around him more. They don't question him. (another reason he would never admit to being wrong about anything). Kinda like trying to disprove a conspiracy theory. Any evidence trying to disprove it is taken as an attempt to cover-up what really happened and strengthen the beliefs of supporters.

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Objectively speaking, the New York Times is a leftist-neoconservative-establishment propaganda outlet, and that article is filled with hypocrisy and spin.
    A valuable assessment, indeed.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Challenging Trump on facts is seen as attacking him and his core supporters rally around him more. They don't question him. (another reason he would never admit to being wrong about anything). Kinda like trying to disprove a conspiracy theory. Any evidence trying to disprove it is taken as an attempt to cover-up what really happened and strengthen the beliefs of supporters.
    Time had an interesting article on Trump (Oh no, Time, a left magazine, it must be fake!!!). When Trump was a new CEO running his dad's housing projects they got sued for not renting to minorities. His lawyer - who had previously worked for McCarthy - pushed a never admit wrong, go on the offensive, counter sue strategy. It worked - they settled but never admitted wrong doing. Since then he's been using the same tactic and it appears to still be working for him.

    Aren't large groups of people that ignore facts if their leader says so called a cult?
    “…let us teach them that all who draw breath are of equal worth, and that those who seek to press heel upon the throat of liberty, will fall to the cry of FREEDOM!!!” – Spartacus, War of the Damned

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  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by kpitcher View Post
    Time had an interesting article on Trump (Oh no, Time, a left magazine, it must be fake!!!). When Trump was a new CEO running his dad's housing projects they got sued for not renting to minorities. His lawyer - who had previously worked for McCarthy - pushed a never admit wrong, go on the offensive, counter sue strategy. It worked - they settled but never admitted wrong doing. Since then he's been using the same tactic and it appears to still be working for him.

    Aren't large groups of people that ignore facts if their leader says so called a cult?
    Roy Cohn was quite a character, especially in NYC politics. He was name dropped on a episode of Billions a couple weeks ago. He was also a lawyer/mentor for Fat Tony Salerno and John Gotti.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul



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  11. #9
    "Two plus two equals five" is objectively false.

    Trump's wiretap claims are, at most, only contingently false.

    Politics and "objectivity" do not go together.

    And neither do journalism and "objectivity" ...
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  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by kpitcher View Post
    Aren't large groups of people that ignore facts if their leader says so called a cult?
    Nope, it is called a corporation.

  13. #11

  14. #12
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  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    A valuable assessment, indeed.
    As With Iraq, New York Times Propagates Demonstrable Lies About Syrian WMDs


    A headline in the New York Times yesterday stated as fact that "With the World Watching, Syria Amassed Nerve Gas". The lead paragraph asserted that "Syria’s top leaders amassed one of the world’s largest stockpiles of chemical weapons with help from the Soviet Union and Iran, as well as Western European suppliers and even a handful of American companies, according to American diplomatic cables and declassified intelligence records."

    But as with its propagandistic reporting about Saddam Hussein’s possession of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the run-up to the Iraq war, the Times provided no evidence to support its claim, and an examination of publicly available documents the Times cited for this story illustrates how the newspaper is demonstrably lying.

    After asserting as fact that the documents show that Syria "amassed one of the world’s largest stockpiles of chemical weapons", the Times stated that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his father before him, "were greatly helped in their chemical weapons ambitions by a basic underlying fact: often innocuous, legally exportable materials are also the precursors to manufacturing deadly chemical weapons."

    To support its claim that "innocuous, legally exportable materials" were used by Syria to manufacture chemical weapons, the Times cited a 2009 State Department cable released by WikiLeaks in 2010. The cable, the Times stated, "instructed diplomats to ‘emphasize that failure to halt the flow’ of chemicals and equipment into Syria, Iran and North Korea could render irrelevant a group of antiproliferation countries that organized to stop that flow."

    But on its face, this only indicates that Syria imported materials considered "dual-use", meaning that it could have both civilian and military applications. It does not constitute evidence that Syria actually used such "chemicals and equipment" to manufacture chemical weapons.

    The cable states that "Syria, Iran and North Korea have continued to acquire goods useful to their chemical and/or biological weapons programs", but offers no evidence that dual-use materials it acquired were used for that purpose.

    The Times report continued: "Another leaked State Department cable on the Syrians asserted that ‘part of their modus operandi is to hide procurement under the guise of legitimate pharmaceutical or other transactions.’"

    Once again, no evidence from the cable is offered that materials that admittedly have "legitimate pharmaceutical" uses were actually used to manufacture chemical weapons.

    The sentence just prior to the one quoted by the Times in the cable stated, "We remain extremely concerned that Iran and Syria are using companies in the UAE to evade U.S. trade prohibitions as well as the export control regulations of other countries to acquire chemical and biological warfare (CBW)-useful equipment and technology."

    The cable itself, however, reveals that there was no knowledge that such materials were actually directed towards any military program. The State Department, it noted, did "not have additional information" that materials that could be "useful" for manufacturing chemical or biological weapons were actually used for that purpose.

    The Times nevertheless continued to falsely assert that "The diplomatic cables and other intelligence documents show that, over time, the two generations of Assads built up a huge stockpile by creating companies with the appearance of legitimacy, importing chemicals that had many legitimate uses".

    As already illustrated, the claim that the cables released by WikiLeaks "show" that Syria "built up a huge stockpile" of chemical weapons is an outright lie.

    The Times then turned to one of the "intelligence documents" it cited as proof, stating that "As early as 1991, under the first Bush presidency, a now declassified National Intelligence Estimate concluded that ‘both Czechoslovakia and the Soviet Union provided the chemical agents, delivery systems and training that flowed to Syria.’"

    But that quote does not date to a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) from 1991, but rather from 30 years ago. The NIE from which it originated, titled "Implications of Soviet Use of Chemical and Toxin Weapons for US Security Interests", was issued on September 15, 1983 and stated that Syria "probably has the most advanced chemical warfare capability in the Arab world, with the possible exception of Egypt" (p. 11).

    What was deemed "probably" true three decades ago may or may not be true today, and it is useful to point out that the US has backed the military dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak, who took power in 1981, with billions in military "aid". Egypt has been second only to Israel as the largest recipient of US foreign assistance since the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, which provided for this money to flow from the American taxpayers to the regime in Egypt.

    By 1983, it had also become evident that Iraq was using chemical weapons in its war with Iran, but the US nevertheless removed the country from its list of state sponsors of terrorism in order to step up support for its war effort. In December of that year, President Ronald Reagan dispatched Donald Rumsfeld, who was later Secretary of Defense under the Bush administration, for a second time to Iraq to reassure Saddam Hussein that the US would continue to back him despite his use of chemical weapons.

    The 1983 NIE also noted that with its foreign suppliers, "there is no need for Syria to develop an indigenous capability to produce CW agents or material, and none has been identified." The purpose of that Cold War-era NIE was to build the case that the Soviet Union was violating the 1975 Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention.

    The rest of the Times article similarly provided no substantiation for the headline’s claim. It cited again "precursor ingredients that can also be used for medicine", with no supporting evidence that such ingredients were used for anything other than civilian applications.

    Perhaps the most egregious example of manipulation with the attempt to deceive the public came towards the end of the article, where the Times quoted from a March 2006 State Department cable: "‘Syrian businessmen regularly report on the ease with which their fellow businessmen illegally import US commodities with seeming impunity, as well as express concerns that the USG’s [United States Government’s] lack of enforcement of the economic sanctions’ are ‘hurting those that choose to play by the rules.’"

    "Those transactions presumably included chemicals that could be precursors for chemical warfare", the Times added.

    Yet the "commodities" described in that cable were mostly related to legitimate civilian uses – particularly for use in hospitals.

    The cable relayed the "constant refrain heard from the business community" in Syria that US sanctions were "ineffective" and did not impact the Syrian government, "but rather are most directly impacting legitimate business transactions."

    Among the "commodities" mentioned are "x-ray tubes, personal computers, defibrillators, and consumable supplies".

    "One source told us", the cable states, providing an example of how sanctions are bypassed, "that he can easily purchase US commodities, specifically medical spare parts, from the Internet and have them shipped to Syria through a third country."

    The cable does note that some of the materials imported are "dual-use"; for example, "a Varian linear accelerator" tendered for a military hospital – a devise used for the treatment of cancer.

    Other items mentioned include "two MRI systems, at least one of which would be used by a military hospital in Aleppo."

    The cable discusses how the US sanctions regime harms businesses seeking to import such items legally because their competitors are able to do so at a lower cost by obtaining them through other channels. It cites one example where a "competitor was able to offer the products at a substantially cheaper price because he did not invest the necessary time and money into pursuing an export license."

    In another example of a "dual-use" item, the cable mentions the importation of "a consumable product, potassium cyanide, shipped to a public pediatric hospital in October 2003." The cable states that the regulatory agency intended to verify the end use of imported materials "was unable to verify that it had been used legitimately" – which is also to say that neither was there any evidence that the potassium cyanide was redirected for the purpose of manufacturing chemical weapons.

    The cable adds that the supplier in this case also sold potassium cyanide "to other end-users not permitted in his export license", with no further indication as to who the end users were or for what purpose it was acquired.

    And once again, contrary to the Times’ willful lie that cables such as this one prove Syria manufactured and stockpiled chemical weapons, the cable itself implicitly acknowledges the lack of evidence for this claim, noting that the a "trained" team of "criminal investigators" in the Bureau of Industry and Security, operating under the US Department of Commerce, "have not traveled to Syria to assess whether the end-use of allowable commodities is legitimate, evaluate whether commodities have been diverted to other end-users, or collect evidence of potential sanctions violations."

    The cable closes by urging that the investigative team be dispatched to "follow-up on some of the anecdotal evidence that we have received" of sanctions violations.

    "The Americans were not the only ones concerned", the Times report continued. "According to another leaked cable, the Netherlands discussed how monoethylene glycol, an important raw material used to manufacture urethane and antifreeze, was shipped by a Dutch concern to the Syrian Ministry of Industry, considered a front for the Syrian military. The Dutch outlined how the chemical could also be used as a precursor for sulfur mustard, and possibly for VX and sarin."

    Yet again we see how the Times took a cable merely noting that Syria had acquired "dual-use" materials that could possibly be used to manufacture sarin gas, the chemical weapon the US is alleging that the Assad regime used in a Damascus suburb last month as a pretext to launch military strikes against Syria, and dishonestly reported this in its headline and lead paragraph as proof that this was indeed the end use of the material.

    This is the same kind of propagandistic reporting that the Times engaged in prior to the US war on Iraq. Once again, it is evident that America’s "newspaper of record" is serving as a mouthpiece for the US government, not only uncritically parroting claims of government officials for which there is no evidence, but going out of its way to propagate its own deliberate lies in such a way as to manufacture consent for US foreign policy.
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  16. #14
    People are only attacking President Trump because he is white and he is a man.

  17. #15

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Schifference View Post
    People are only attacking President Trump because he is white and he is a man.
    Technically he is historic first orange president:

    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul



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  20. #17
    Little CPUd is wrong. So is the propaganda trash paper he linked. I am glad we settled this

  21. #18
    It's also weird how the media believes a man can magically become a woman and vice versa... Funny how that perception sticks despite the impossibility iof the premise.
    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Ryan
    In Washington you can see them everywhere: the Parasites and baby Stalins sucking the life out of a once-great nation.



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