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Thread: Rate Hike + Debt Ceiling coming tomorrow.

  1. #1

    Rate Hike + Debt Ceiling coming tomorrow.

    It should be an interesting day in the markets tomorrow. The debt ceiling suspension expires and the Fed is expected to hike rates.



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  3. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    It should be an interesting day in the markets tomorrow. The debt ceiling suspension expires and the Fed is expected to hike rates.

    Fed rate hike already priced into the markets- it has been widely expected for a while. Only impact would be if it DIDN'T happen. Treasury says they can use "extreme measures" for a few months if necessary. There certainly won't be a budget passed tomorrow.

  4. #3
    Chicken$#@! GOP will vote to raise the debt ceiling again. No one should be surprised when they do.
    There are only two things we should fight for. One is the defense of our homes and the other is the Bill of Rights. War for any other reason is simply a racket.
    -Major General Smedley Butler, USMC,
    Two-Time Congressional Medal of Honor Winner
    Author of, War is a Racket!

    It is not that I am mad, it is only that my head is different from yours.
    - Diogenes of Sinope

  5. #4
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...lear/99175620/

    McConnell: We will raise debt ceiling, but timing unclear

    With the federal government's power to borrow money to pay its bills set to expire Thursday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Tuesday that the Senate will definitely raise the debt limit. But he couldn't say exactly when.

    "We'll be talking to the secretary of the Treasury about timing, but obviously we will raise the debt ceiling," the Kentucky Republican told reporters.

    The debt limit, also called the debt ceiling, is the legal amount that the U.S. Treasury can borrow to pay the government's bills, including Social Security and Medicare benefits, military salaries, tax refunds, interest on the national debt, and other obligations. The limit is set by Congress and must be raised by both the House and Senate. Congress needs to reset the limit to about $20 trillion to reflect the nation's current debt.
    If Congress doesn't lift the limit by Thursday, the Treasury Department will be forced to use "extraordinary measures" to keep raising cash to pay the government's bills. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told congressional leaders last week that he will begin Wednesday to suspend the sale of state and local government bonds, which count against the national debt.

    Mnuchin's extraordinary measures "would probably be exhausted sometime this fall," according to the Congressional Budget Office. If Congress takes no action by then, the government would default on its debts for the first time.
    Since "extraordinary measures" can last until fall, don't expect much action on the debt until then.


    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/13/us-to...ng-moodys.html

    US to keep Aaa-rating after debt ceiling: Moody's

    Moody's Investors Services said on Monday the United States will retain the rating agency's top-notch debt rating as long as it meets its interest payments even if the government's borrowing cap is reinstated on Thursday.

    Back in November 2015, federal lawmakers suspended the federal debt ceiling, which would be about $19.9 trillion, if they do not vote to extend the suspension which ends on Wednesday.

    "While the periodic impasse over raising the debt ceiling is a credit negative feature of the country's debt management, it has not affected the sovereign's credit rating to date," Moody's analysts wrote in a research report published on Monday.

    Like Moody's, Fitch has kept its top AAA-rating on U.S. government debt.

    However, Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S.' rating by one notch to AA+ in August 2011. It cited its high level of debt and uncertainty about the federal government's ability to manage that debt load following a debt ceiling showdown.

    The Treasury Department said last week it will embark "extraordinary measures" to meet its debt obligation if the debt ceiling goes into effect.

    These steps include suspension of SLUGS, which are used by state and local governments to temporarily store the proceeds of their bond sales and ensure tax compliance; stopping investments in federal employee pension plans and halting sales of U.S. savings bonds.

    "There is little risk the Treasury will exhaust such measures before the end of fiscal year 2017. These extraordinary measures would have a limited impact on the economy," Moody's analysts said.

    The government's current fiscal year ends on Sept. 30.
    No pressure to get anything done which means nothing will be done. Trump is expected to announce his budget proposals this week though it is Congress who will actually write the real budget.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 03-14-2017 at 04:16 PM.

  6. #5
    There will be no budget passed or anything else tomorrow would be my guess as well.
    Do something Danke

  7. #6
    I still think it could get interesting. Also I just read an article that our cash reserves are almost out. Instead of borrowing money we've been burning thru our cash reserves to pay the bills. I think that means we won't be able to last as long on "emergency measures" when the debt ceiling goes back into effect. That also explains why we've been stuck on 19.9T in debt the last couple months.

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    I still think it could get interesting. Also I just read an article that our cash reserves are almost out. Instead of borrowing money we've been burning thru our cash reserves to pay the bills. I think that means we won't be able to last as long on "emergency measures" when the debt ceiling goes back into effect. That also explains why we've been stuck on 19.9T in debt the last couple months.
    Government gets cash (tax payments) and bills every month even though traditional tax payment time is April. Some months the government can even run a surplus in a given month if revenues exceed payments- happened most recently in January (which is also the most recently available data).

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...-idUSKBN15P2FI

    U.S. government posts $51 billion surplus in January


    The U.S. government posted a $51 billion budget surplus in January, with both receipts and outlays rising from the same month a year earlier, the Treasury Department said on Friday.

    The budget surplus was $55 billion in January 2016, according to Treasury's monthly budget statement.

    Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a $40 billion surplus for last month.

    The fiscal 2017 year-to-date deficit was $157 billion compared with $160 billion in the same period of fiscal 2016.

    When accounting for calendar adjustments, the surplus last month was $23 billion. That compared to an adjusted surplus of $13 billion in the same month in 2016.

    Receipts last month came to $344 billion, about a 10 percent increase from January 2016, while outlays stood at $293 billion, up 13 percent from the same month a year earlier
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 03-14-2017 at 05:50 PM.

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCarolinaLiberty View Post
    From the article:

    "Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said Democrats have never opposed raising the limit, which allows the government to pay its existing debts, not create new ones."

    He's got it backasswards. Enforcing the limit, not raising it, allows you to pay existing debts without creating new ones. By definition raising the debt ceiling allows new debt. Also I'm pretty sure a majority of Democrats voted against raising the debt ceiling (one of the few times they actually did the right thing) when Bush was in office.

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    From the article:

    "Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said Democrats have never opposed raising the limit, which allows the government to pay its existing debts, not create new ones."

    He's got it backasswards. Enforcing the limit, not raising it, allows you to pay existing debts without creating new ones. By definition raising the debt ceiling allows new debt. Also I'm pretty sure a majority of Democrats voted against raising the debt ceiling (one of the few times they actually did the right thing) when Bush was in office.
    Not raising the debt means you can't borrow any more money. That kinda makes it hard to pay off existing debt unless you cut spending to less than you are taking in in taxes.

    Stocks today- Fed has not made their expected interest rate announcement yet but they are currently up for the day.

    Just announced they are raising their benchmark rate by 0.25 points to 0.75%.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 03-15-2017 at 12:08 PM.

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Not raising the debt means you can't borrow any more money. That kinda makes it hard to pay off existing debt unless you cut spending to less than you are taking in in taxes.

    Stocks today- Fed has not made their expected interest rate announcement yet but they are currently up for the day.

    Just announced they are raising their benchmark rate by 0.25 points to 0.75%.


    Thank you for your information contribution to the thread!
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCarolinaLiberty View Post
    Thank you for your information contribution to the thread!
    This site would not be what it is without Zippy. I am glad to see his efforts being held in such a high regard.

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Not raising the debt means you can't borrow any more money. That kinda makes it hard to pay off existing debt unless you cut spending to less than you are taking in in taxes.
    That's the idea.

    What's the definition of a Ponzi scheme?

  16. #14
    What do you think of David Stockman's prediction of the debt ceiling crisis triggering a crash?

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by merkelstan View Post
    What do you think of David Stockman's prediction of the debt ceiling crisis triggering a crash?
    I don't think so because I think the republicans will quickly re-suspend the debt ceiling. But we've still got massive bubbles in search of a pin.

    After the rate hike stocks are up, rates are down. Apparently nothing can pop this thing.

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Fed rate hike already priced into the markets- it has been widely expected for a while. Only impact would be if it DIDN'T happen. Treasury says they can use "extreme measures" for a few months if necessary. There certainly won't be a budget passed tomorrow.
    One of the reporters (Hayes?) asked Yellen why they hiked in the middle of really poor hard data like the .9 GDP downward revision. Yellen gave a complete word salad nonsense reply about GDP being a noisy stat and the Fed is confident in the economy and moved on to the next question. Never mind that every other report says the Fed is "data driven"....

    The answer is that the Fed actually raised the target rate months ago. Today's report and press conference is the announcement of what they decided MONTHS AGO. The hard data coming out now is the RESULT. You call it "priced into the markets", I call it the insiders knowing what was already implemented. These reports and press conferences are big charades.


    All inflation protection classes spiked (people dumping FRNs into other asset classes). I think an actual recession is already underway. Rates have to be raised just so they can be dropped later in response to a publicly disclosed recession. Then the helicopter fires up. Protecting against the death of the FRN should be everyone's priority. That is the end game.
    Last edited by devil21; 03-16-2017 at 12:41 PM.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    I don't think so because I think the republicans will quickly re-suspend the debt ceiling. But we've still got massive bubbles in search of a pin.

    After the rate hike stocks are up, rates are down. Apparently nothing can pop this thing.
    I'll just note here that Madison320's prediction was right.
    SEDS - Safe and Effective Death Syndrome

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by merkelstan View Post
    I'll just note here that Madison320's prediction was right.
    It sure took a long time but all that borrowing and printing over the last 10 years finally caused consumer prices to rise. That's what finally caused the Fed to have to tighten monetary policy.

    At some point the recession is going to be more politically unpopular than the inflation and the Fed is going to reverse course, set rates to zero and resume printing.



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