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Thread: Interesting Chart

  1. #1

    Default Interesting Chart




    Definitely has a feel that the market will correct 20-50% at some point during Trump's Presidency.



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  3. #2

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    945. The 2017 bubble(2/1/2017)



    It was the popping up of the housing bubble that caused the financial tsunami in 2008. The bubble hasn't been cleaned up completely. The real estate loan were lent from banks. No big bank collapsed. They were bailed out by government with tax-payers' money. The banks still held large quantity of foreclosed houses. Then we saw Federal Reserve's Quantitative easy program. That money took over the foreclosure houses for a larger bubble. QE3, where the central bank had spent close to $40 billion per month in mortgage-backed securities. So much money injected into real estate's area, that's why I said there is only one bubble - the 2007 one hasn't been cleaned up and the residue has been extended to a even bigger one - I call it 2017 bubble.


    A bubble needs money to keep it to inflating. Federal Reserve had spent nearly four trillion to blow up such a big real estate ballon. It seems they don't want to pour money into that hole any more. So a crook is pushed out to take that responsibility.


    I say 2017 bubble because: 1. Federal Reserve said it likely will increase interest twice this year - that will pop up the housing bubble.


    2. The unprecedented 2016 election in US that put an unqualified man on president seat. I said something big will happen that nobody (party) want to take the responsibility. (see "902. Trump's job (2) (5/7/2016)")


    3. Something big (other then the coming economic crisis) will take place in Europe: War; natural disaster; terror attack.... to distract people from that economic crisis, and drive the money in Europe to US to take over the bubble too. It relates to Russian. I believe Putin is bribed by the Feds to cooperate on this. Trump's Russian love is not a coincidence.

  4. #3

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    1) San Francisco is hardly a typical US housing market. Not representative. Nationally there is no housing price bubble.
    2) Fed only changes very short term interest rates (unless they are buying long term Treasury notes to try to drive them up- that ended in 2014). Mortgage rates are long term. Long term rates do not always follow changes in short term ones.
    3) Fed interest rates have only been one quarter of one percent- hardly enough to have any impact on housing sales- even if they do decide to increase them. QE3 ended in 2014 and the Fed started to raise rates over a year ago. Neither has had much effect on the housing market.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 02-02-2017 at 03:39 PM.
    "The future is here, it's just not evenly distributed yet." - William Gibson

    I am Zippy and I approve of this post. But you don't have to. This post may include statements I don't personally agree with.

  5. #4

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    It shows they pour the money of Q.E. into central California to blow up such a big balloon. (40 billion each month) It may prove the Feds(the FBI and DEA) can manipulate Federal Reserve to work to their interest.

    944. See how big the bubble is (1/25/2017)


    17 years ago, I found the Feds moved the area residents away and bought in houses in large scale. (see #733, 734, 736. CASH FOR HOUSE). As early as 2003, I warned of a housing bubble. (see #180. Beware of housing bubble (11/16/03))That bubble keeps growing up until now. I think that's because They failed to eliminate Kat Sung. The result is: San Jose becomes No.1 highest median house price city (where I live) and San Franciso is the No.2. (Where my mother and sisters live).


    Here is a chart of median home sale prices of San Francisco. The curve is accordant to the persecution course the Feds apply on me. The unusual upward price started from 1993. Though the chart author thought there were two bubbles, it is still a big one in fact. The bubble stopped growing up in 2008 due to financial tsunami but the Feds managed to prevent it from breaking. The down turn was mild. Even in lowest point of 2011, it's 695,000. Double the amount of starting price.







    From steep curve you may see how big this bubble is.




    Report: San Jose, Not San Francisco, Has Highest Median Home Price In Country
    BY JACK MORSE IN NEWS ON AUG 12, 2016


    San Jose, with a median home price of $1,085,000, currently ranks as the most expensive metropolitan area for would-be home owners. The second most expensive? That would be San Francisco coming in at $885,600.


    http://sfist.com/2016/08/12/san_jose...o_has_high.php

  6. #5

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    Looks like overall US housing prices are about the same as 2006 and CA prices below what they were then. Ignoring the crazy San Francisco market, there really isn't a housing bubble.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 02-14-2017 at 06:03 PM.
    "The future is here, it's just not evenly distributed yet." - William Gibson

    I am Zippy and I approve of this post. But you don't have to. This post may include statements I don't personally agree with.

  7. #6

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    There is no bubble here . Great buys everywhere . I do think you would have to leave Frisco and NY out of everything to get a real picture .

  8. #7

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    I don't think there's a housing bubble (outside of a few inflated urban areas)... but I think the stock market will see a dip before 2018.

    When the market first hit 10,000 in 1999?, the economy was "booming." Then 8 months later - a bloodbath.

  9. #8

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    A big financial crisis will come soon.
    Big Banks Dump Major Currencies—Look What They’re Buying Instead
    02.22.2017 BY PATRICK BOVE, STANSBERRY RESEARCH




    In a series of moves that’s sending shockwaves through the financial markets, more than a dozen of the world’s biggest and most powerful banks are dumping major currencies.


    What they’re buying instead will surprise you.


    The Wall Street Journal reported just a few weeks ago that this “shift has significant implications for markets and the global economy.”


    A Forbes article added that this is: “definitely not normal.”


    Why are these giant banks dumping what used to be considered “safe” currencies?


    http://thecrux.com/dyncontent/big-ba...8dLho2WBTvDZ9g

  10. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Looks like overall US housing prices are about the same as 2006 and CA prices below what they were then. Ignoring the crazy San Francisco market, there really isn't a housing bubble.
    Do you agree that the value of a house is effected by current mortgage rates? It seems to me like a house is marketed to a specific income that is attributed to a specific class of people. And that as interest rates change these houses are still marketed to the same class of people, and the income attributed to that class of people, so the price of the house changes to reflect that? Meaning that when interest rates go down, the middle class man does not start buying the wealthy man's housing, instead the price of the house goes up to reflect that the wealthy man at this interest rate can afford to have more of his monthly housing costs consumed by principle. And when rates go up the middle class man does not start buying the poor man's housing, instead housing prices go down to reflect that more of the monthly housing costs will be consumed by interest?

  11. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by P3ter_Griffin View Post
    Do you agree that the value of a house is effected by current mortgage rates? It seems to me like a house is marketed to a specific income that is attributed to a specific class of people. And that as interest rates change these houses are still marketed to the same class of people, and the income attributed to that class of people, so the price of the house changes to reflect that? Meaning that when interest rates go down, the middle class man does not start buying the wealthy man's housing, instead the price of the house goes up to reflect that the wealthy man at this interest rate can afford to have more of his monthly housing costs consumed by principle. And when rates go up the middle class man does not start buying the poor man's housing, instead housing prices go down to reflect that more of the monthly housing costs will be consumed by interest?
    Mortgage rates have SOME impact on housing prices. Higher rates means that with interest the same borrower can afford a slightly lower priced house for the same monthly payment. But mortgage rates have been very low for several years now. It will take large shifts in interest rates to have any notable impact on house buying and prices. Other factors can be larger than interest rate changes such as changes in income.

    "The future is here, it's just not evenly distributed yet." - William Gibson

    I am Zippy and I approve of this post. But you don't have to. This post may include statements I don't personally agree with.

  12. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Mortgage rates have SOME impact on housing prices. Higher rates means that with interest the same borrower can afford a slightly lower priced house for the same monthly payment. But mortgage rates have been very low for several years now. It will take large shifts in interest rates to have any notable impact on house buying and prices. Other factors can be larger than interest rate changes such as changes in income.

    :snip chart:
    Just to note it: a $100,000 house at 4% has approximately the same payment as a $80,000 house at 6%. ($477 v $480)

    I think it would take a quick upward shift in interest rates to cause problems too. The bubble would be popping at that point though. Which theoretically means that the fed has already created the bubble. Done by lowering interest rates to recover housing prices rather than it being done generically through factors like changes in income. And it would also mean that their rate normalization policies is their management of a bubble that they have created.

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    Ron Paul: Not a 'total shock' if stocks plummet 25% and gold soars 50% by October


    Stephanie Landsman | @stephlandsman
    Sunday, 2 Jul 2017


    A painful correction is coming and there's little that can be done to prevent it, according to former Republican congressman and libertarian firebrand Ron Paul


    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/02/ron-p...nt-by-oct.html

  14. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by katsung47 View Post
    Ron Paul: Not a 'total shock' if stocks plummet 25% and gold soars 50% by October


    Stephanie Landsman | @stephlandsman
    Sunday, 2 Jul 2017


    A painful correction is coming and there's little that can be done to prevent it, according to former Republican congressman and libertarian firebrand Ron Paul


    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/02/ron-p...nt-by-oct.html
    It also notes:

    He made a similar prediction almost exactly a year ago on June 28, 2016, almost exactly a year ago. Since then, the S&P 500 has ripped by 21 percent and the Dow is up 24 percent, breaking several records along the way. The tech heavy Nasdaq bounced into record territory over that time period, and soared 34 percent.
    "The future is here, it's just not evenly distributed yet." - William Gibson

    I am Zippy and I approve of this post. But you don't have to. This post may include statements I don't personally agree with.

  15. #14

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    Logarithmic scale for long-term chart's the only way to go. On forecasting, just as I always say: We Just Don't Know.
    The rebel of the 21st Century will be old-fashioned.

    No enemies to the right

  16. #15

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    I think if you want to find bubbles look for government stimulus NOT rising prices. For example suppose house prices in a free market would drop by 50% but government stimulus keeps them steady. That's still a bubble because as soon as the stimulus ends the price will crash by 50%.

    We've probably had more government stimulus over the last 8 years than any country in history. I'm not sure exactly where the bubbles are, but they are all over the place.

  17. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    I think if you want to find bubbles look for government stimulus NOT rising prices. For example suppose house prices in a free market would drop by 50% but government stimulus keeps them steady. That's still a bubble because as soon as the stimulus ends the price will crash by 50%.

    We've probably had more government stimulus over the last 8 years than any country in history. I'm not sure exactly where the bubbles are, but they are all over the place.
    Interesting idea- a bubble without rising prices. If that is true, almost everything must be in a bubble almost all of the time.
    "The future is here, it's just not evenly distributed yet." - William Gibson

    I am Zippy and I approve of this post. But you don't have to. This post may include statements I don't personally agree with.

  18. #17

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    Who knows on the timing, it is a matter of when not if though. Every dollar created since 1913 has been created out of debt. Inflation has increased or put another way the value of the dollar has decreased dramatically. A silver dime in 1913 could buy a loaf of bread, a today's dime without silver would not get you a slice, however the silver dime would still buy you that loaf of bread.

    All fiat currencies have all lost their value over time. We need to audit and end the fed and then go back to sound money, silver and gold as currency. To help get the word out, my brother and I created a company that sells candles that contain silver coins inside. As a promotion to help get the word out about sound money and ending the fed, the 1 of the next 3 purchases of our candles running contest to win a copy Ron Paul's End The Fed book. To be clear you'll buy a candle for $19.13, get a silver coin, and get a 1 in 3 chance to win the End The Fed book. enter to here https://www.etsy.com/shop/ScentSavers

  19. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    It also notes:



    He made a similar prediction almost exactly a year ago on June 28, 2016, almost exactly a year ago. Since then, the S&P 500 has ripped by 21 percent and the Dow is up 24 percent, breaking several records along the way. The tech heavy Nasdaq bounced into record territory over that time period, and soared 34 percent.
    Gee, it's almost like you haven't been here long enough to know that Paul never tries to pinpoint the timing of the inevitable crashes.
    * Enforce Border Security – America should be guarding her own borders and enforcing her own laws instead of policing the world and implementing UN mandates.

    * No Amnesty - The Obama Administration’s endorsement of so-called “Comprehensive Immigration Reform,” granting amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants, will only encourage more law-breaking.

    * Abolish the Welfare State – Taxpayers cannot continue to pay the high costs to sustain this powerful incentive for illegal immigration. As Milton Friedman famously said, you can’t have open borders and a welfare state.

    * End Birthright Citizenship – As long as illegal immigrants know their children born here will be granted U.S. citizenship, we’ll never be able to control our immigration problem.




    Reprinted from http://www.ronpaul2012.com/the-issues/immigration/ [Nov. 29, 2011]

  20. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Interesting idea- a bubble without rising prices. If that is true, almost everything must be in a bubble almost all of the time.

    Interest rates not fluctuating based on demand create bubbles.
    * Enforce Border Security – America should be guarding her own borders and enforcing her own laws instead of policing the world and implementing UN mandates.

    * No Amnesty - The Obama Administration’s endorsement of so-called “Comprehensive Immigration Reform,” granting amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants, will only encourage more law-breaking.

    * Abolish the Welfare State – Taxpayers cannot continue to pay the high costs to sustain this powerful incentive for illegal immigration. As Milton Friedman famously said, you can’t have open borders and a welfare state.

    * End Birthright Citizenship – As long as illegal immigrants know their children born here will be granted U.S. citizenship, we’ll never be able to control our immigration problem.




    Reprinted from http://www.ronpaul2012.com/the-issues/immigration/ [Nov. 29, 2011]

  21. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by angelatc View Post
    Interest rates not fluctuating based on demand create bubbles.
    The assumption with Ron Paul, a lot of smart Austrians, and a lot of successful money managers is that the Fed has held interest rates down for the past 8 years. I don't claim to be as smart as those people, but I have an alternative explanation. The reason interest rates haven't fluctuated is because interest rates would have gone even lower in a free market. Zero percent acted as a price floor just like the minimum wage is a price floor and prevented the market from clearing.

    Here is a pretty short explanation of what I believe is true from a guy who has devoted his life to monetary policy.
    http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.c...marketers.html

  22. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by katsung47 View Post
    945. The 2017 bubble(2/1/2017)
    The popping of the NASDAQ bubble doesn't bode well for those real estate prices.


    Quote Originally Posted by angelatc View Post
    Gee, it's almost like you haven't been here long enough to know that Paul never tries to pinpoint the timing of the inevitable crashes.
    Ron did call the last one during the 2008 campaign debates. It's too difficult to find particular video of it now but he stated clearly something to the effect that "Main Street knows about the recession. Wall Street doesn't."
    Last edited by devil21; 07-10-2017 at 01:53 AM.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    The entire internet is the domain of paid shills and bots. If you don't know this by now....

    Israel, under control of the Crown and, ultimately, the Vatican, own the USA. If you don't know this by now....

    Talk to people about liberty. You won't find it on websites, you won't find it in politicians.

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  23. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    The assumption with Ron Paul, a lot of smart Austrians, and a lot of successful money managers is that the Fed has held interest rates down for the past 8 years. I don't claim to be as smart as those people, but I have an alternative explanation. The reason interest rates haven't fluctuated is because interest rates would have gone even lower in a free market. Zero percent acted as a price floor just like the minimum wage is a price floor and prevented the market from clearing.

    Here is a pretty short explanation of what I believe is true from a guy who has devoted his life to monetary policy.
    http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.c...marketers.html
    The biggest bubble is in the stock market. Destroying fixed income products wiped out the safer alternatives - there's literally no profit in any other investment. I think the next big crash will be insurance companies, whose products are required to make investments in fixed income products.

    He is probably right - a free market would have dipped interest rates into negative territory, people would have hoarded cash, and the markets would have tightened. But that wouldn't have lasted long. Real corrections never do.
    Last edited by angelatc; 07-10-2017 at 07:19 AM.
    * Enforce Border Security – America should be guarding her own borders and enforcing her own laws instead of policing the world and implementing UN mandates.

    * No Amnesty - The Obama Administration’s endorsement of so-called “Comprehensive Immigration Reform,” granting amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants, will only encourage more law-breaking.

    * Abolish the Welfare State – Taxpayers cannot continue to pay the high costs to sustain this powerful incentive for illegal immigration. As Milton Friedman famously said, you can’t have open borders and a welfare state.

    * End Birthright Citizenship – As long as illegal immigrants know their children born here will be granted U.S. citizenship, we’ll never be able to control our immigration problem.




    Reprinted from http://www.ronpaul2012.com/the-issues/immigration/ [Nov. 29, 2011]

  24. #23

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    The great bull market in its last stages? U.S. car sales fall sharply in June; Silicon Valley begins to crack visibly; October doom? Ron Paul predicts gold up 50% stocks down 25% this October
    BY IWB · JULY 4, 2017


    http://investmentwatchblog.com/the-g...-this-october/

  25. #24

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    I feel pretty good .

  26. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    I feel pretty good .
    Because they only tell you good news.

    As Sales Plunge, GM Might Cancel Six Car Models
    by Wolf Richter • Jul 20, 2017


    GM is getting whacked harder than any of the major automakers by the industry-wide plunge in car sales, as Americans switch in ever larger numbers from cars to “trucks,” which include pickups, van, SUVs and crossovers. In the first half of 2017, GM’s car sales in the US plunged 19%, and in June 38%.


    The rest of the industry (without GM) booked declines in car sales of “only” 10% in the first half and 9% in June.


    http://wolfstreet.com/2017/07/20/gm-...2020/#comments

  27. #26

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    Quote Originally Posted by katsung47 View Post
    Because they only tell you good news.
    Nah , I am not really expecting any great news . I feel pretty good that I will be OK without any .

  28. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    The assumption with Ron Paul, a lot of smart Austrians, and a lot of successful money managers is that the Fed has held interest rates down for the past 8 years. I don't claim to be as smart as those people, but I have an alternative explanation. The reason interest rates haven't fluctuated is because interest rates would have gone even lower in a free market. Zero percent acted as a price floor just like the minimum wage is a price floor and prevented the market from clearing.

    Here is a pretty short explanation of what I believe is true from a guy who has devoted his life to monetary policy.
    http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.c...marketers.html
    I think the existence of negative rates kills your theory. I don't see how that could possibly happen in a free market. I'm gonna loan you money, and PAY you for taking the money off my hands!

    Also look at credit card rates, which so far haven't been targeted by the Fed.

  29. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    I think the existence of negative rates kills your theory. I don't see how that could possibly happen in a free market. I'm gonna loan you money, and PAY you for taking the money off my hands!

    Also look at credit card rates, which so far haven't been targeted by the Fed.

    Ron Paul and Rothbard propose full reserve banking. One way you would make full reserve banking work is by charging people a fee to hold their money. That is the same thing as a negative interest rate.

  30. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    Ron Paul and Rothbard propose full reserve banking. One way you would make full reserve banking work is by charging people a fee to hold their money. That is the same thing as a negative interest rate.
    That's not the same thing, that's the opposite! What benefit does the bank receive when it loans money to someone at 0%(or lower) interest? Freeing up space in the vault?

    Are you being serious or just messing with me?

  31. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    That's not the same thing, that's the opposite! What benefit does the bank receive when it loans money to someone at 0%(or lower) interest? Freeing up space in the vault?

    Are you being serious or just messing with me?
    He's saying that customers would receive a negative rate of interest on their savings in the bank.


    Interest rates for loans would be drastically higher.
    Last edited by TheCount; 08-13-2017 at 04:07 PM.
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    Why do you try to disprove actual real evidence by discussing the views of the person who compiled it? That doesn't make any logical sense.

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