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Thread: Peter Schiff 'Before Obama Leaves Office' Prediction

  1. #31
    There are people who got it even more wrong. Ever hang around the survivalist websites/forums or read their books? James Rawles is going to have to re-edit and re-publish his books for a 3rd time to find a president to reside over a grid-down total collapse.



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  3. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    If you are still looking for work- no matter how long you have been out of work or whether or not you were receiving any unemployment benefits- you ARE counted as in the labor force and unemployed (assuming you don't already have a job and are just looking for another one- then you are in the labor force and employed).
    Not according to the BLS. The BLS defines and excludes from the labor force a specific category of individuals define as "marginally attached to the labor force" that includes individuals that "indicate that they currently want a job, have looked for work in the last 12 months, and are available for work," but haven't searched for four weeks. These unemployed individuals that want work and are available for work, are nevertheless specifically excluded by BLS from the labor force and thus NOT counted as unemployed.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Dr. Ron Paul. "Stand up for what you believe in, even if you are standing alone." - Sophie Magdalena Scholl
    "War is the health of the State." - Randolph Bourne "Freedom is the answer. ... Now, what's the question?" - Ernie Hancock.



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  5. #33
    I've admitted many times that the dollar collapse is taking longer than I expected. But since the underlying fundamentals that lead to a dollar collapse keep getting worse I don't see how the "paper bugs" can claim victory. Suppose I predict a dam will collapse in 5 years. The water behind the dam keeps rising but the dam doesn't collapse in 5 years. Was I wrong despite the fact that the water continues to rise and is expected to keep rising? Would you build a home on the bank downstream from that dam?

  6. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by AZJoe View Post
    Not according to the BLS. The BLS defines and excludes from the labor force a specific category of individuals define as "marginally attached to the labor force" that includes individuals that "indicate that they currently want a job, have looked for work in the last 12 months, and are available for work," but haven't searched for four weeks. These unemployed individuals that want work and are available for work, are nevertheless specifically excluded by BLS from the labor force and thus NOT counted as unemployed.
    That category only covers about two million people out of 95 million considered "not in the labor force". https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat35.htm

  7. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    That category only covers about two million people out of 95 million considered "not in the labor force". https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat35.htm
    That much. Wow. This item alone would revise the BLS unemployment rate from 4.7 to 6 percent using the BLS's own data.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Dr. Ron Paul. "Stand up for what you believe in, even if you are standing alone." - Sophie Magdalena Scholl
    "War is the health of the State." - Randolph Bourne "Freedom is the answer. ... Now, what's the question?" - Ernie Hancock.

  8. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    I've admitted many times that the dollar collapse is taking longer than I expected. But since the underlying fundamentals that lead to a dollar collapse keep getting worse I don't see how the "paper bugs" can claim victory. Suppose I predict a dam will collapse in 5 years. The water behind the dam keeps rising but the dam doesn't collapse in 5 years. Was I wrong despite the fact that the water continues to rise and is expected to keep rising? Would you build a home on the bank downstream from that dam?
    I would say that you simply do not understand the fundamentals. You've mentioned QTM theory and stuff before, and that just isn't how the system works.

    Quote Originally Posted by AZJoe View Post
    OMG, and yet Dr, No has blind faith in the openly distorted BLS numbers. Shadowstats calculations are at least based on logic.
    Logic being his ass? He literally just adds a fudge factor to his numbe

    Quote Originally Posted by AZJoe View Post
    BLS, by contrast is carefully selected data to bolster the political fortunes of those in power. For instance digging into the BLS reports reveals that the majority of its newly created jobs are in fact low wage or part-time positions. Can you truly say that employment is improving when higher wage jobs and full-time careers are being replaced by low wage jobs and part-time positions.

    Plus the recent record setting numbers of Americans that are completely absent by workforce, well in excess of ninety million. These record setting numbers are simply disappeared by definitions from BLS calculations. But hey the numbers are getting better as long as BLS gets to remove the data it does not like, right.

    And then of course if you have been unemployed for a year or more, the BLS simply disappears you from the data calculations, whether want work or not, whether you are seeking work or not. They also disappear you from their data if you haven't reported that you actively sought work for four weeks.

    And then of course if you had a nice career with a good paying job and lose it, and are forced to work two part-time jobs waiting tables at lower wages with lower benefits to make ends meet, well that's job creation and suppresses the BLS unemployment numbers. So for the BLS that's good news and it means the economy is better. Everything is awesome!

    And then there is the BLS seasonal "adjustments" as well as the birth/death of jobs adjustments that are so screwed up they continuously revise their models with virtually every calculation, and always in the direction of making the numbers look better.

    And then of course there is that sticky labor force participation that throws a wrnech into the BLS "everything is awesome" charade, and the political elites tell you to ignore and is irrelevant.

    But hey, let nothing disturb your blind faith in the cult of political BLS BS, and any facts or logic that might cast a shadow on their "everything is awesome" charade must automatically be fake, right.

    http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/Ed-Mo.../10/id/718500/
    http://thelibertarianadvisor.com/201...ployment-rate/
    http://www.financialsense.com/contri...ted-statistics
    The labor participation rate can be down for many reasons. For example, a huge chunk of that number is an older population. All those baby boomers are retiring. The Social Security administration has been warning about this for two decades.

    Gallup estimated the BLs is underrating unemployment by .625%:
    http://unemploymentdata.com/unemploy...yment-numbers/

    Even the Heritage foundation argued that unemployment was 6% when you included discouraged workers.

    In regards to your bit about people taking lower quality jobs, etc. There is much truth to that. But as the charts I posted show, income is up, net worth is up, debt is down (in a relative sense considering the trend is up).

    Quote Originally Posted by AZJoe View Post
    Dr. No's attempt attack on Dr. Paul is outright dishonesty. While Dr. Paul has made many predictions about the direction of the economy (all accurate), he has not made predictions of specific dates of events. No one can accurately predict dates, especially with worldwide reserve currency, backed by worldwide military apparatus. He made no such prediction that we would certainly have a world government and world world currency by today. Nor did he predict the economy was supposed to have an economic collapse each and every single year of the past 40+ years.
    He hasn't literally said the economy would collapse on June 7, 2014 or whatever. But he's made dire predictions.

    He predicted a 15-year depression in 2009: https://www.ft.com/content/ee3e07f0-...2-0000779fd2ac, saying people will abandon the dollar and interest rates would rise steeply. He predicted this would happen by 2013. He predicted the stock market wouldn't go higher then 8,000 for at least 10 years.

    He predicted hyperinflation and oil in excess for 200/barrel by 2014 here:https://www.thestreet.com/story/1104...the-world.html

    He predicted a major disaster in 2011, including a sharp rise in commodities:http://www.infowars.com/ron-paul-gol...omic-collapse/

    In a 1981 speech to Congress he predicted there would be economic collapse and hyperinflation in the very near future

    There are more and more. Plus the dumb predictions of Peter Schiff (well documented), Tom Woods, Robert Murphy, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by AZJoe View Post
    And on the rest, everything has been accurate. Default is continuously occurring through inflation, and with the "official" debt doubling in only 8 years now, larger defaults in one form or another are inevitable. This is really no prediction, this is simply mathematics. [BTW, the actual debt using GAAP is already multiples higher than the "official" debt].
    Why does more debt mean default is going to happen? The US is the issuer of the currency. They cannot go bankrupt. As long as the government is operating and not hamstrung, it can always pay its debts; it can always make its payments.

    Quote Originally Posted by AZJoe View Post
    On inflation, Dr. Paul predicts inflation, but I don't believe he has ever said hyperinflation is guaranteed (although it probably is), but rather we are travelling down the path to an inflationary outcome. And again, he has never assigned specific dates to such economic events. For instance Dr. Paul in some of the strongest of his own words I have heard, "I think the wave of the future is inflation. It's just beginning – to the point that the dollar will be rejected as the reserve currency of the world. If there's a panic out of the dollar you will see the destruction of the dollar rather quickly. The end stages of a currency comes quickly." He continued, "We've seen this in Zimbabwe, Mexico and Central America. Today there's an illusion and false trust in our money."
    Just the links I gave above have him naming 2011 and 2013 as timelines for the dollar crash/world abandoning dollar as reserve currency

    Quote Originally Posted by AZJoe View Post
    Likewise the dollar is continuously collapsing through inflation, and will accelerate. But again, no dates are given. Especially considering the dollar world status is unique in history. While there have been prior international reserve use currencies, No other currency has been as widespread and deeply established as a world currency as the US dollar today. Nor has such currency been back by a such a powerful globally reaching military-security-deep state political apparatus as the current establishment. Many factors hinder true free-market evaluation of the currency such as the Petrol-dollar system in the middle east, the destruction/sanctioning/bullying of any nation rejecting dollar use for trade [Iraq/Libya] or any signiianct petrol producing nation that does not cow-tow to the US deep state desires [Syria/Iran]. The path is set. The direction is predictable. The arrival times, however are not predictable.
    Again, these claims have been made for a few score decades. The whole petrol-dollar thing...haven't you wondered why as oil consumption goes down around the world, the US dollar is unaffected? Have you ever wondered why ME countries don't have large holdings of dollars? Because the idea that oil has to be purchased in dollars is a myth. It is merely priced in dollars, but OPEC countries will accept numerous different types of currency. That's why they hold more Euros than they do dollars, since only ~13% of our energy comes from the Persian Gulf. See this article: https://mythfighter.com/2012/10/25/m...erve-currency/

    Remember that several countries hold dollars because they peg their currency to the dollar, and can use the dollar to manipulate the value of their own currency. Remember that several countries do this for political reasons; to stabilize their own currency and give confidence to investors. Transactions occur in many different currencies. Still, 40% of the foreign reserves held by the world isn't in dollars. Why hasn't the US invaded those countries? Don't forget that of that 60% of US holdings, 80% are held by private, foreign individuals, not central banks; they don't hold it for currency-peg reasons, but because they want to own dollars. They can use it to buy US debt. They like its security, scalability, and liquidity.

    Now, of course, that demand for the dollar drives up its value. It drives down interest rates, as everyone wants to hold US debt. But even then, there is so much domestic demand for the dollar, that the international demand for it doesn't drive all its value. For example, this article:https://www.project-syndicate.org/co...nd-the-world?: shows that if international dollar demand magically dropped by 100%, the US dollar would only lose about 32% of its value

    Quote Originally Posted by AZJoe View Post
    Interest of course goes hand-in-hand with inflation. While government and the Fed may be able to artificially keep market rates down for a time, and maybe even US debt and Fed set rates artificially low permanently, eventually however market rates will inevitably follow and then lead real inflation when inflation rises. This is not any prescient insight. This again is simple logic.
    The issue with your simple logic is that your presumptions are wrong. The Fed never keeps interest rates down; it always keeps interest rates up. The natural rate of interest is zero.

    Think about it this way...if the US/Fed imposed no reserve requirements on banks, no liquidity requirements on banks, and stopped soaking up reserves in the system with debt purchases (also known as Open Market Operations), why would banks needs reserves? So, the cost of money would be zero...they would be incredibly liquid, there would be no cost of lending, and they'd only have to worry about the credit-worthiness of the individual. That's why with huge numbers of excess reserves, interest rates are so low; they'd be even lower if the Fed didn't pay IOR.

    Quote Originally Posted by AZJoe View Post
    And of course we have seen massive direct and indirect and covert QE over the past decade. The acknowledged Fed balance sheet has reached an all-time high at an unfathomably massive 4.5 Trillion, a seven fold increase from the prior decade.
    This is what I mean when I criticize Ron Paul's understanding of the monetary system. So what if the Fed' balance sheet is so high?

    QE was an asset swap. The private sector got liquid, stable, non-interest-bearing assets in exchange for less liquid, less stable, interest-bearing-assets. That's costing the private sector nearly 100 billion in interest each year. That's money that the Fed collects and returns to the taxpayer every year. I see no reason why the Fed wouldn't be able to unwind its balance sheet, either.
    Last edited by Dr.No.; 01-24-2017 at 10:38 PM.

  9. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by AZJoe View Post
    That much. Wow. This item alone would revise the BLS unemployment rate from 4.7 to 6 percent using the BLS's own data.
    It would also increase all of the historical rates by a similar amount, still rendering the current time amongst the lowest ever rates of unemployment.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Pinochet is the model
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Liberty preserving authoritarianism.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Enforced internal open borders was one of the worst elements of the Constitution.

  10. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    It would also increase all of the historical rates by a similar amount, still rendering the current time amongst the lowest ever rates of unemployment.

    Nope.
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members

  11. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    It would also increase all of the historical rates by a similar amount, still rendering the current time amongst the lowest ever rates of unemployment.
    Most communist countries have near 0% unemployment. So did cavemen. Standard of living is what counts.

  12. #40
    And ours is still one of the highest in the world.



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  14. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    Most communist countries have near 0% unemployment. So did cavemen. Standard of living is what counts.
    K. So, what's the trend on that? Negative?
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Pinochet is the model
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Liberty preserving authoritarianism.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Enforced internal open borders was one of the worst elements of the Constitution.

  15. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    K. So, what's the trend on that? Negative?

    Not gonna happen.
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members

  16. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    And ours is still one of the highest in the world.

    Nope.
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members

  17. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by toathis View Post
    @ 4:37

    "Learn how to trade with real macro economic understanding for free"

    Spare us. Since 2009, in a nutshell:



    Peter Schiff is right. Let's have this conversation when if the Fed unwinds its balance sheet.

  18. #45
    The Fed unwind will likely take form as a nationalization of the Fed and repudiation of the debt and government seizure of assets it holds. At that point, those that put faith in digital "assets" will realize that they never owned anything. That's when the scramble for hard assets goes into a fever pitch.

    Eventually it becomes too tiring to argue with the banker shill army on RPF. Their entire arguments are based on very carefully chosen wording, instead of pure logic and conceptual thinking. Here's an example:

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan
    Nope- no "Austrian style" hyperinflation in the United States.
    See what he did there? I never said anything about hyperinflation in the United States. Most of the Fed's secret FOMC money printing has ended up outside of the United States. Most of the monetary inflation has been exported. For example, Belgian Fed shell companies sucking up Treasuries the last few years, off the Fed's books. Never mind that the "United States" is the name of the corporate government, not the land mass.

    Worth noting that a movie being released Friday the 27th is called "GOLD" and one of the loglines is something like "The chase begins now!" Sounds a little too much like a warning to me.
    Last edited by devil21; 01-25-2017 at 11:27 AM.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  19. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    See what he did there? I never said anything about hyperinflation in the United States. Most of the Fed's secret FOMC money printing has ended up outside of the United States. Most of the monetary inflation has been exported. For example, Belgian Fed shell companies sucking up Treasuries the last few years, off the Fed's books. Never mind that the "United States" is the name of the corporate government, not the land mass.
    So where is there hyperinflation now? Venezuela perhaps.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 01-25-2017 at 12:45 PM.

  20. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    So where is there hyperinflation now? Venezuela perhaps.
    Hyperinflation is a money printing phenomenon. A monetary function, not a price symptom. The price inflation component requires velocity of money on top of huge increases in money supply. Venezuela has both components ongoing. We only have one component, for now, likely changing soon. The FRN has been hyperinflated across the entire planet.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  21. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by openfire View Post
    @ 4:37

    "Learn how to trade with real macro economic understanding for free"

    Spare us. Since 2009, in a nutshell:



    Peter Schiff is right. Let's have this conversation when if the Fed unwinds its balance sheet.


    Look at the percentage change.

    Moreover, correlation does not equal causation. The Fed increasing its balance sheets means almost nothing to the private sector in terms of asset valuation. All the Fed was doing was replacing interest-bearing assets with money. While low interest rates certainly helped with growth, corporations and businesses have had record profits...that is what is driving the stock market more than anything. If you think the Fed swapping assets suddenly made companies sell more goods...


    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    The Fed unwind will likely take form as a nationalization of the Fed and repudiation of the debt and government seizure of assets it holds. At that point, those that put faith in digital "assets" will realize that they never owned anything. That's when the scramble for hard assets goes into a fever pitch.
    Why would the debt be repudiated? The government prints the currency. They can't go bankrupt. Unless a loon decided to push for bankruptcy...there are no fundamental reasons the government could ever go bankrupt.

    The vast majority of obligations out there have to be paid in dollars. Your taxes have to be paid in dollars. That creates a huge demand for dollars. Even if the US were to declare bankruptcy and demand for US debt plummeted, you'd still need dollars to pay off your mortgage, your bills, your taxes, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    See what he did there? I never said anything about hyperinflation in the United States. Most of the Fed's secret FOMC money printing has ended up outside of the United States. Most of the monetary inflation has been exported. For example, Belgian Fed shell companies sucking up Treasuries the last few years, off the Fed's books. Never mind that the "United States" is the name of the corporate government, not the land mass.
    Extraordinary claims require evidence.

    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Worth noting that a movie being released Friday the 27th is called "GOLD" and one of the loglines is something like "The chase begins now!" Sounds a little too much like a warning to me.
    Since you are accusing everyone of being a shill for the banks, let me accuse you of being a shell for the gold-selling, disaster-nuts out there. How much are they paying you to sound doom and gloom, driving people to buy gold and guns?

    Heck, the above line is exactly what people like Alex Jones do...see warnings and conspiracies everywhere.


    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Hyperinflation is a money printing phenomenon. A monetary function, not a price symptom. The price inflation component requires velocity of money on top of huge increases in money supply. Venezuela has both components ongoing. We only have one component, for now, likely changing soon. The FRN has been hyperinflated across the entire planet.
    Actually, hyperinflation is a Gundam phenomenon of the ratio of twinkies to flowers in the world. Hyperinflation is a monetary phenomenon as some people describe it, even though the vast majority of people use it to mean effective inflation. Why? Because it doesn't matter a damn if money is printed at high levels, if it does not affect the price level. You don't even need money printing to cause price inflation if the private banking system expands credit too rapidly.



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  23. #49
    Dr. No, before I decide whether to continue to engage you, why do you still refuse to acknowledge that the US government has been bankrupt since 1933? This is a simple premise that must be acknowledged before any further discussion/debate can be fruitful. If you do not accept this premise then you simply have no foundation of knowledge to understand what's really going on and I would be forced to rebuild your knowledge base from the ground up. I'm not sure it is worth the effort.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  24. #50

  25. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by toathis View Post
    Happy 20k Schiffbots!

    I wonder how long the stock ramp lasts if/when the sizable portion of illegal immigrants that make up the bulk of labor for house builders/renovators/contractors, agriculture companies, landscapers, etc and all of the other economic sectors that indirectly rely heavily on their labor (Home Depot sales, for example) go into hiding, leave voluntarily or are rounded up. Sure, I guess Goldman stock can ramp the Dow into the stratosphere practically on it's own like it's been doing lately, but there's definitely sectors and many small businesses that are going to be s-c-r-e-w-e-d when their cheap labor disappears.

    Anyone thinking about any projects that use illegal's labor best do it asap. Is it any wonder DR Horton builders had a huge Q4?
    Last edited by devil21; 01-25-2017 at 06:14 PM.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  26. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Hyperinflation is a money printing phenomenon. A monetary function, not a price symptom. The price inflation component requires velocity of money on top of huge increases in money supply. Venezuela has both components ongoing. We only have one component, for now, likely changing soon. The FRN has been hyperinflated across the entire planet.
    Evidence to support your claim? How much has the supply of FRNs increased across the entire planet?

    "It is hidden!" "It is secret!" If there is hyperinflation in the supply of dollars, it is going to be extremely easy to see.

    For example, Belgian Fed shell companies sucking up Treasuries the last few years, off the Fed's books.
    Foreign holders of US debt have nothing to do with any alleged hyperinflation of the US dollar. But how much is currently held in Belgium? $113.5 billion. Not much of our $20 trillion debt. http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt Japan has nearly ten times that amount. The Fed has twenty times that.

    (Belgium is the financial capital of Europe and many US Treasuries are used there as collateral against large loans)
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 01-25-2017 at 06:25 PM.

  27. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan
    Evidence to support your claim? How much has the supply of FRNs increased across the entire planet?
    Be a peach and post a chart for us about all FOMC operations. That would answer your question and be very helpful to us all. Naturally, I became suspicious when I heard about this:

    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  28. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Be a peach and post a chart for us about all FOMC operations. That would answer your question and be very helpful to us all. Naturally, I became suspicious when I heard about this:

    I mean...that video just demonstrates Grayson's total lack of understanding of the system.

    As Berneke pointed out, it was a loan. An asset of the Fed. They were not handing out dollars.

    Central banks of foreign nations have accounts with the Fed, just like domestic banks do. They use those accounts to handle foreign transactions; when you buy a product made in China, your checking accounts is debited, then your bank's account at the Federal Reserve is debited, then PBC's account at the Fed is credited, and then the producer's account in China is credited in either dollars or renminbi.

    When the financial crises hit, those foreign banks were also short dollars. They needed to meet demand for physical cash, they needed to deal with a shrinking trade deficit with the US, they had to deal with transactional flows heading back to the US, and they needed to quickly get more solvent assets. The Federal Reserve provided that in the form of those swaps on a short-term basis. Now, the total level of swaps is under a billion.

  29. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr.No. View Post
    I mean...that video just demonstrates Grayson's total lack of understanding of the system.

    As Berneke pointed out, it was a loan. An asset of the Fed. They were not handing out dollars.
    blah blah blah blah
    We can discuss that, but first: Are you going to answer my post above about the 1933 bankruptcy?
    Last edited by devil21; 01-26-2017 at 08:00 AM.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  30. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    We can discuss that, but first: Are you going to answer my post above about the 1933 bankruptcy?
    I would ask that you answer my posts first.



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  32. #57
    Liquidity swaps: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monet...idityswaps.htm

    Dollar Liquidity Swap Lines
    In response to mounting pressures in bank funding markets, the FOMC announced in December 2007 that it had authorized dollar liquidity swap lines with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank to provide liquidity in U.S. dollars to overseas markets, and subsequently authorized dollar liquidity swap lines with each of the following central banks: the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Banco Central do Brasil, the Bank of Canada, Danmarks Nationalbank, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Korea, the Banco de Mexico, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Norges Bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Sveriges Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank. Those arrangements terminated on February 1, 2010.

    In May 2010, the FOMC announced that in response to the re-emergence of strains in short-term U.S. dollar funding markets it had authorized dollar liquidity swap lines with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank. In October 2013, the Federal Reserve and these central banks announced that their existing temporary liquidity swap arrangements--including the dollar liquidity swap lines--would be converted to standing arrangements that will remain in place until further notice.

    In general, these swaps involve two transactions. When a foreign central bank draws on its swap line with the Federal Reserve, the foreign central bank sells a specified amount of its currency to the Federal Reserve in exchange for dollars at the prevailing market exchange rate. The Federal Reserve holds the foreign currency in an account at the foreign central bank. The dollars that the Federal Reserve provides are deposited in an account that the foreign central bank maintains at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. At the same time, the Federal Reserve and the foreign central bank enter into a binding agreement for a second transaction that obligates the foreign central bank to buy back its currency on a specified future date at the same exchange rate. The second transaction unwinds the first. At the conclusion of the second transaction, the foreign central bank pays interest, at a market-based rate, to the Federal Reserve. Dollar liquidity swaps have maturities ranging from overnight to three months.

    When the foreign central bank loans the dollars it obtains by drawing on its swap line to institutions in its jurisdiction, the dollars are transferred from the foreign central bank's account at the Federal Reserve to the account of the bank that the borrowing institution uses to clear its dollar transactions. The foreign central bank remains obligated to return the dollars to the Federal Reserve under the terms of the agreement, and the Federal Reserve is not a counterparty to the loan extended by the foreign central bank. The foreign central bank bears the credit risk associated with the loans it makes to institutions in its jurisdiction.

    The foreign currency that the Federal Reserve acquires is an asset on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Because the swap is unwound at the same exchange rate that is used in the initial draw, the dollar value of the asset is not affected by changes in the market exchange rate. The dollar funds deposited in the accounts that foreign central banks maintains at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are a Federal Reserve liability.

    Foreign-

  33. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    That is a good explanation, but technically, the Federal Reserve is not obligated to engage in that second transaction. As a course of business, when they are providing daily liquidity, they will do this, but I believe that over the financial crises, they made open-ended swaps (which they eventually closed later).

  34. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr.No. View Post
    I would ask that you answer my posts first.
    Why would I do that when you refuse to agree to even the most basic premise of the financial/economic system? Without that agreement, nothing else makes any difference since the rest sprouts from that basic premise.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  35. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Why would I do that when you refuse to agree to even the most basic premise of the financial/economic system? Without that agreement, nothing else makes any difference since the rest sprouts from that basic premise.
    If you believe the US is bankrupt (since, presumably, it is on the gold standard), then of course you'd be willing to transfer all your FRNs to me? After all, they are liabilities of a bankrupt government; they are worthless, according to you!

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