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Thread: Schiff thinks Trump deficits will be huge.

  1. #1

    Schiff thinks Trump deficits will be huge.

    Peter Schiff just wrote an article predicting big deficits under Trump. He thinks the driver of the deficits will be Trump and the republicans will go along. I think deficits will rise but not for the same reason. I think the republicans will want to boost spending but there's a chance Trump will be against them. If someone like Jeb Bush was elected I'd be 100% certain that we'd be in for massive deficits, but with Trump I'm not as confident.

    http://www.europac.com/commentaries/...will_be_huge_0

    And by the way since Schiff is in the title I expect Zippy to chime in with the usual "Schiff says gold is going to $5,000!" We know Zippy, we know.



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  3. #2
    For once, he's right.
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  4. #3
    Well , all deficits are huge . What if it was still just the same or slightly better ? In 2015 I think it was nearly a half TRILLION ( 440 Billion ) . This is where you get to start as Pres elect .
    Do something Danke

  5. #4
    I guess we'll see. He has chosen a lot of money people who will be able to look at a budget and find the problems. For once, there will be people who actually know what a billion dollars is, because they have it, and have a vested interest in where it goes. I don't think anyone in Congress has that much money, so the billions they toss around is only an abstract.
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  6. #5
    When Obama started, they were $1 trillion. Trump can get them back to that no problem.

  7. #6
    The biggest contributor to deficits is the economy.

    When you had a bubble economy under Clinton, deficits shrank. When the Nasdaq bubble burst deficits grew the first few years of Bush as you had lost capital gains revenue. Deficits went down and the budget almost balanced in 2007 under Bush as you had a an overheated stock and real estate market. The Great Recession created trillion dollar deficits under Obama. Then as the economy improved and cap rains revenue was collected (along with the Sequester) deficits have come back down.

    If you had a 20%+ correction in the stock market and a recession, large deficits would come back no matter what Trump does.

  8. #7
    Isn't our money system based on debt increasing? Somewhere I read that.... like if we really paid off the debt the economy would implode or some such.

    In other words, talk about paying down or paying off the national debt is crazy talk - no kidding.

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    The biggest contributor to deficits is the economy.

    When you had a bubble economy under Clinton, deficits shrank. When the Nasdaq bubble burst deficits grew the first few years of Bush as you had lost capital gains revenue. Deficits went down and the budget almost balanced in 2007 under Bush as you had a an overheated stock and real estate market. The Great Recession created trillion dollar deficits under Obama. Then as the economy improved and cap rains revenue was collected (along with the Sequester) deficits have come back down.

    If you had a 20%+ correction in the stock market and a recession, large deficits would come back no matter what Trump does.
    Looking at Price / Earnings a correction is due anytime which is not good news .
    Do something Danke



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    When Obama started, they were $1 trillion. Trump can get them back to that no problem.
    Thanks Zippy, I can always rely on you to provide true, accurate answers.

    I won't waste any time fact checking this
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  12. #10

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Jamesiv1 View Post
    Isn't our money system based on debt increasing? Somewhere I read that.... like if we really paid off the debt the economy would implode or some such.

    In other words, talk about paying down or paying off the national debt is crazy talk - no kidding.
    Basically, the idea is that government deficits represent private sector financial savings. When the government runs a smaller or negative deficit, it is taking money out of the private sector. When it runs a deficit, it is putting money into the private sector.

    Consider the fact that the US domestic sector loses about 500 billion in financial wealth each year to the foreign sector...ie, the trade deficit. The US gets real wealth back in the form of goods and services, but the domestic private sector loses financial wealth. Unless the government runs a deficit, the private sector will net lose financial wealth.

    Now, that does not mean that the economy will implode if net financial assets it holds goes down. There is debt financing, of course, and as long as net worth is going up, the economy can continue to function very smoothly (basically, you wouldn't want debt as a percentage of net worth to go up). But, you can also suppose that there are healthy and unhealthy levels of financial assets as as percentage of net worth. And when net worth drops, sometimes precipitously, there will be a scramble for those net financial assets.

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    The biggest contributor to deficits is the economy.

    When you had a bubble economy under Clinton, deficits shrank. When the Nasdaq bubble burst deficits grew the first few years of Bush as you had lost capital gains revenue. Deficits went down and the budget almost balanced in 2007 under Bush as you had a an overheated stock and real estate market. The Great Recession created trillion dollar deficits under Obama. Then as the economy improved and cap rains revenue was collected (along with the Sequester) deficits have come back down.

    If you had a 20%+ correction in the stock market and a recession, large deficits would come back no matter what Trump does.
    I agree on the revenue side, however they do have control over the spending side. That's mostly what I'm curious about. To me so far it looks like Trump wants to cut the small stuff but increase the big stuff. Let's see if we get one of those bogus 10 year plans that "cuts" a gazillion dollars where the "cuts" are actually reductions in increases and they're all backloaded in later years and totally non binding.

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    When Obama started, they were $1 trillion. Trump can get them back to that no problem.
    Wow!! What a target!!! I can hardly wait!!
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  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Root View Post
    Yuge
    For once, well once in a very long time, I'm going to have to say there is some thought out legitimacy to what Schiff is saying..

    Trump is proposing trillion dollar increases in military spending and infrastructure concurrent with massive tax cuts, and threatening a GDP killing trade war..

    If he actually does all the things he claims he is going to do, increased deficits will follow..

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by ChristianAnarchist View Post
    Wow!! What a target!!! I can hardly wait!!
    Trump (actually the bankers but who's counting) will far exceed Obama's deficits. I hear him gassing up the helicopter right now!
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

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  18. #16
    Schiff says every situation is always GOOD FOR GOLD... Because PETER SCHIFF SELLS GOLD. lol

    Not saying he's wrong. Just saying...



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Peter4Paul2016 View Post
    Schiff says every situation is always GOOD FOR GOLD... Because PETER SCHIFF SELLS GOLD. lol

    Not saying he's wrong. Just saying...
    I like gold too . Possibilities for the future are endless .
    Do something Danke

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    For once, he's right.
    I think he is correct...
    I think Rand Paul needs
    to run as a budget hawk
    in 2020. Period.

  22. #19
    I think Schiff has been reading my posts. In his latest podcast he seemed to agree more with what I've been thinking. The republicans want to spend like crazy, but it's possible (although not likely) that Trump will try to rein in spending.

    As I've said before, March should give us some indication. That's when the debt ceiling suspension expires. Also as I've said many times before my guess is we'll get those 10 year budgets that "cut" 10 trillion dollars. Actually all they do is reduce the spending from some fictional amount. And it's backloaded in the later years. And it's non binding.

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    I think Schiff has been reading my posts. In his latest podcast he seemed to agree more with what I've been thinking. The republicans want to spend like crazy, but it's possible (although not likely) that Trump will try to rein in spending.

    As I've said before, March should give us some indication. That's when the debt ceiling suspension expires. Also as I've said many times before my guess is we'll get those 10 year budgets that "cut" 10 trillion dollars. Actually all they do is reduce the spending from some fictional amount. And it's backloaded in the later years. And it's non binding.
    Might not need to wait that long. http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/19/news...-debt-ceiling/

    Steven Mnuchin: 'I'd like us to raise the debt ceiling sooner rather than later'


    Tea Party members and other fiscal conservatives might want to take note: President-elect Trump's Treasury pick would like to raise the debt ceiling ... soon and without drama.

    "Honoring the U.S. debt is the most important thing. ... I would like us to raise the debt ceiling sooner rather than later," Steven Mnuchin said during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Finance Committee Thursday.

    It's one of the first issues Mnuchin will have to address as Treasury Secretary, should he be confirmed.

    His response to questions about the debt indicated he's not eager to see a crisis over the issue unfold the way it did in the summer of 2011 when some conservative lawmakers refused to raise the ceiling until their budget demands were met. The standoff -- which put the country on the brink of default -- earned the United States its first-ever credit downgrade and roiled markets.

    The ceiling is a legal cap that Congress periodically sets on how much the U.S. government may have in outstanding debt.

    Since the federal government takes in less revenue than lawmakers have committed to spend, the U.S. Treasury must borrow to make up the difference to pay all the country's obligations in full and on time.

    Treasury can't do that when the level of borrowing hits the ceiling, unless lawmakers vote to raise it again or, as they've done repeatedly in recent years,"suspend" it. A suspension basically lets Treasury borrow whatever it needs to pay the bills and when the suspension ends, the new ceiling is set at the amount of outstanding debt that day.

    That's likely to be just north of $20 trillion when the latest suspension ends on March 15. At that point, the Treasury Secretary will have some accounting tools at his disposal to keep the amount of debt just below the legal ceiling. But those so-called "extraordinary measures" aren't likely to buy lawmakers more than a few months to address the issue, according to estimates from the Bipartisan Policy Center.

    Mnuchin also made it clear that he doesn't believe that the Treasury should try to "prioritize debt" if Congress threatens not to raise the ceiling in time, as some lawmakers have suggested. The idea is that Treasury could avoid a technical default on the debt so long as it paid interest to bondholders first, and then paid all other obligations -- everything from Social Security checks to veteran benefits to contractor bills -- whenever it had sufficient money in hand.

    "We have the obligation. There should be no uncertainty that we are paying the bills," Mnuchin said.

    Most independent fiscal experts argue that trying to prioritize debt is a terrible idea that could harm the economy, world markets and ruin the United States' gold-star reputation as the world's most reliable, liquid debt market.

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    "Most independent fiscal experts argue that trying to prioritize debt is a terrible idea that could harm the economy, world markets and ruin the United States' gold-star reputation as the world's most reliable, liquid debt market."
    I wonder how someone gets the title of independent fiscal expert and who these experts are. They certainly aren't surveying this guy. http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014...17612323790964

    The debt ceiling fight in 2011 was a massive success getting the Sequester passed. Having another debt ceiling fight would be the single most productive thing the Republicans can do.



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