Markets Prepare For Trump Turmoil

[Smaulgld]

[FSP-Rebel]

[oyarde]

Coin sales have been good for me past six weeks or so .

[Smaulgld]

Coin sales have been good for me past six weeks or so .

The gold smash and stock market rise after trump's election were just painting the tape for Obama and didnt reflect the reality of what is coming

[Dforkus]

I've moved my online trading account to about 30% cash. I wanna have some dry powder in case of a panic sell off. I moved my 2 401ks to a somewhat more conservative stance too.

I assume there will be some turmoil, perhaps LOTS, if Trump actually tries to bring all of these threats of 35% tariffs and other such nonsense to fruition. I still assume the vast majority of this is just bull$#@!, meant to inspire his idiotic constituency.

now I'm scaring myself, it might be time to go 50% cash...

[oyarde]

I've moved my online trading account to about 30% cash. I wanna have some dry powder in case of a panic sell off. I moved my 2 401ks to a more somewhat more conservative stance too.

I assume there will be some turmoil, perhaps LOTS, if Trump actually tries to bring all of these threats of 35% tariffs and other such nonsense to fruition. I still assume the vast majority of this is just bull$#@!, meant to inspire his idiotic constituency.

now I'm scaring myself, it might be time to go 50% cash...

I am all the way out now ( retired last spring) .Prior to that I was down to 50 percent .

[Smaulgld]

I've moved my online trading account to about 30% cash. I wanna have some dry powder in case of a panic sell off. I moved my 2 401ks to a somewhat more conservative stance too.

I assume there will be some turmoil, perhaps LOTS, if Trump actually tries to bring all of these threats of 35% tariffs and other such nonsense to fruition. I still assume the vast majority of this is just bull$#@!, meant to inspire his idiotic constituency.

now I'm scaring myself, it might be time to go 50% cash...

Trump is talking down the dollar which will be good for gold. The uncertainty will help gold and if he does a tarrif, coupled with a lower dollar there will be big price inflation which also will be good for gold

[Madison320]

Trump is talking down the dollar which will be good for gold. The uncertainty will help gold and if he does a tarrif, coupled with a lower dollar there will be big price inflation which also will be good for gold

I think by far the biggest factor for gold, in the long run, is government spending. That's what leads to debt, which leads to printing, which devalues the currency.

If it was any other republican, I'd be 100% sure we'd get a big spending increase, since republicans hold all 3 branches. Of course the same would be true if the democrats held all 3 branches. But Trump is such a wildcard that I'm not really sure what he's going to do.

On a slightly different topic when was the last time the market had any big moves either up or down? It's been amazingly steady for a long time now. I've seen some headlines recently claiming a big drop and I look and it's only .3% or so. Just wait until we get some 2 or 3% moves in one day.

[Dforkus]

On a slightly different topic when was the last time the market had any big moves either up or down? It's been amazingly steady for a long time now. I've seen some headlines recently claiming a big drop and I look and it's only .3% or so. Just wait until we get some 2 or 3% moves in one day.

It has been stable.. 2 and 3% would translate to 400 to 600 points in todays dow. Historically 2 or 3% moves aren't at all rare, so I would assume we'll see one again and fairly soon . And of course if it is a 3% move down, the gang will gleefully proclaim CRASH!!!!, which it isn't.

Even 5% daily moves, and 10+% weekly moves (in one direction or the other) aren't super rare, and will likely happen again, and will kick off a round of uneducated proclamations and speculations...

[Madison320]

It has been stable.. 2 and 3% would translate to 400 to 600 points in todays dow. Historically 2 or 3% moves aren't at all rare, so I would assume we'll see one again and fairly soon . And of course if it is a 3% move down, the gang will gleefully proclaim CRASH!!!!, which it isn't.

Even 5% daily moves, and 10+% weekly moves (in one direction or the other) aren't super rare, and will likely happen again, and will kick off a round of uneducated proclamations and speculations...

The media reaction to a big downturn will be epic.

[Dr.No.]

I assume there will be some turmoil, perhaps LOTS, if Trump actually tries to bring all of these threats of 35% tariffs and other such nonsense to fruition. I still assume the vast majority of this is just bull$#@!, meant to inspire his idiotic constituency.
now I'm scaring myself, it might be time to go 50% cash...

Past history has shown that when you increase taxes on corporations (and I am presuming that tariff increases would be almost entirely an essential direct tax on corporations), you get a mild reduction in capital flows (reduction in stock market value) and a mild increase inflation.

So yes, the market would take a haircut, but it would be a mild one. The market will also consider the opposition Trump would face, as well as the likely amending he would have to settle on (that is, what final rate he would compromise on). Also, consider that Trump deregulatory policy could have a very positive effect, increasing cash flows and boosting the market.

I think by far the biggest factor for gold, in the long run, is government spending. That's what leads to debt, which leads to printing, which devalues the currency.

If it was any other republican, I'd be 100% sure we'd get a big spending increase, since republicans hold all 3 branches. Of course the same would be true if the democrats held all 3 branches. But Trump is such a wildcard that I'm not really sure what he's going to do.

On a slightly different topic when was the last time the market had any big moves either up or down? It's been amazingly steady for a long time now. I've seen some headlines recently claiming a big drop and I look and it's only .3% or so. Just wait until we get some 2 or 3% moves in one day.

There is little connection between government deficits, inflation, dollar valuation, and the price of gold: