Paul holds 10 point advantage according to RunSwitch poll

[jct74]

Paul holds 10 point advantage heading into first and only debate, according to RunSwitch poll

by Nick Storm
10/31/2016

U.S. Sen. Rand Paul continues to hold a lead over Democratic candidate Lexington Mayor Jim Gray in a poll released by RunSwitch PR on Monday, the day of the one and only debate between the two candidates.

Paul leads Gray with 52 percent of respondents signaling their support for the Bowling Green Republican. Gray is scooping up support of 42 percent of respondents, according to the poll.

The survey was conducted by Cygnal, a research and targeted advertising firm, which tested 811 likely voters by live callers, who reached 70 percent of the respondents on landlines and 30 percent on cell phones. The RunSwitch poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.44 percent, and was conducted October 26 through the 28th.

Cygnal spoke with 333 Republicans, 439 Democrats and 39 people selecting other as their party. Other top line information on the poll can be viewed here. Crosstabs for the polling can also be viewed here.

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http://mycn2.com/politics/paul-holds...runswitch-poll



here's a little more breakdown from RunSwitch PR:

Incumbent Republican Rand Paul has a steady lead heading in to the final week of the campaign, beating his Democratic opponent Jim Gray 52 percent to 42 percent. While Gray is performing better than Clinton, he still has a steep hill to climb in what has been a rather sleepy campaign.

The rural parts of Kentucky are fueling Paul’s lead. Paul and Gray are essentially tied in the Louisville media market and in the Lexington and Cincinnati markets combined. But Paul leads by huge margins in Eastern Kentucky (59 percent to 36 percent) and Western Kentucky (64 percent to 32 percent).

Gray is doing better among Democrats than Clinton, but still is getting just 60 percent of his own party while Paul wins 33 percent of them. Paul is winning Republicans 75 percent to 19 percent. In the 2014 U.S. Senate race in Kentucky, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell won 91 percent of self-identified Republicans and 17 percent of Democrats during his route of Alison Grimes.

http://www.runswitchpr.com/oct-2016-survey/

[Sola_Fide]

Gray never had a chance.

[Krugminator2]

I think Rand is in good shape. And this is good news. That said, I think the race is tighter than this.

It is worth noting that the poll was done by a Republican pollster and Trump is leading by 24 points in the same poll. It is a small sample size but Trump absolutely dominated the poor, white areas of Kentucky and Rand didn't do so well with those people. I suspect Rand's likely opposition to the coal miners pension fund bailout could hurt him.

[oyarde]

I think Paul pulls 60 % or better from the poor , white , rural Kentuckians .

[Krugminator2]

I think Paul pulls 60 % or better from the poor , white , rural Kentuckians .

That is about what the cross tabs showed. He was at 59%. Trump, on the other hand, has a 61 point lead in eastern Kentucky. 77-16. I am not stunned Rand is doing worse with that group than Trump but he is doing quite a bit worse.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8A...tTUktyRnM/view