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Thread: America’s Hidden Unemployment Crisis

  1. #1

    America’s Hidden Unemployment Crisis

    Millions have stopped looking for work yet go uncounted in the Unemployment Figures
    http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2163...oyment-crisis/

    In a June 6 speech to the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that the U.S. economy was “now fairly close to the … goal of maximum employment.”

    At a jobs fair held in Newburgh, New York, on Oct. 5, Drew Smith begged to differ. A former stock broker and trader for 27 years, Smith has been unemployed and looking for work for four years. The full parking lot he surveyed as he walked into the fair reinforced his belief that the unemployment rate is much higher than the official numbers.

    he Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said unemployment in June was 4.9 percent—the figure Yellen had in mind when she said the United States was close to maximum employment. In the September jobs report, that figure inched up to 5 percent.

    In the gap between Yellen’s and Smith’s unemployment estimates lies an unacknowledged catastrophe, as tens of millions of Americans either can’t find or have given up on looking for work. This crisis involves two distinct problems: There are large numbers who are looking for full-time work but can’t find it, and there are large numbers who have accepted not working as a norm.

    This group of the non-working has been almost invisible to society, but it presents unique problems. Having a large number of adults give up on work weakens the economy and represents a staggering waste of human potential.

    To begin to understand this story, one first has to look at the numbers.

    The unemployment figure Yellen referenced is called the U3 unemployment rate. It measures everyone who has actively sought a job in the past four weeks and is what people most often refer to when they discuss the unemployment rate.

    In a letter published on his company’s website, Jim Clifton, the CEO of the Gallup polling company, called the U3 rate “extremely misleading” and “a big lie.”

    Clifton points out that if someone is discouraged and has stopped looking for work, then that person is not counted in the U3 number as unemployed. He also notes that if someone works just one hour a week and is paid $20, he or she is not counted as unemployed.

    Gallup publishes on its website the U6 unemployment rate, which it calls “real unemployment.” This is the BLS’s most capacious unemployment rate, including all of those counted in the U3 rate plus “discouraged workers,” “marginally attached workers,” and those “employed part-time for economic reasons.”

    The marginally attached are defined as people who have looked for work sometime in the past year, but not in the past four weeks. The discouraged are those who have not looked for work in the past year because they believe there is no work available to them or none for which they would qualify. Those who are employed part time for economic reasons would like a full-time job, but can only find part-time work.

    The September U6 rate was 9.3 percent, which translates into 14.87 million unemployed. While this rate gives a fuller picture than the U3 rate, it does not count those who have stopped looking for work for longer than one year, individuals whom the BLS classifies as “not in the labor force.”

    Not in the Labor Force

    In June 2016, the President’s Council of Economic Advisers released a report titled “The Long-Term Decline in Prime-Age Male Labor Force Participation.” The report notes that since 1965 the labor force participation rate of men in their prime working years (defined as ages 25 to 54) has steadily declined. In 1965, the number of men in their prime who were employed or unemployed and looking for a job was 96.7 percent. As of May 2016, that figure had dropped to 88.4 percent, meaning that 11.6 percent were not looking for work.

    Nicholas Eberstadt, who holds the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute, has written a book about these men titled “Men Without Work: America’s Invisible Crisis.”

    Eberstadt reports that in 2014 there were 7.2 million prime-working-age men not in the labor force. But this number understates those missing from our labor force—unemployed but not counted in the unemployment figures—by failing to account for men outside the ages of 25 to 54.

    In an interview Eberstadt said, “If American men over the age of 20 just had the same work rates that our society had back in 1965 … there would be almost 10 million more men with paid jobs.”

    Eberstadt points out the 7.2 million also misses the declining situation for women. While up to the year 2000 women’s labor force participation rates had been steadily improving, since 2000 those rates have been dropping similarly to men’s.

    Calculating from data published by the BLS for 2014, an additional 3.6 million women would have had jobs in 2014, if they had been working at the year 2000 participation rates.

    If 13.6 million long-term discouraged workers are added into the current BLS labor force number of 159.9 million, the unemployment rate swells from the U6’s 9.3 percent to 16.4 percent.

    ...
    Full article, links to sources and better formatting on link at top. Now, where is Zippy to point at the U3 and tell us everything is awesome?
    1776 > 1984

    The FAILURE of the United States Government to operate and maintain an
    Honest Money System , which frees the ordinary man from the clutches of the money manipulators, is the single largest contributing factor to the World's current Economic Crisis.

    The Elimination of Privacy is the Architecture of Genocide

    Belief, Money, and Violence are the three ways all people are controlled

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Our central bank is not privately owned.



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  3. #2
    Clifton points out that if someone is discouraged and has stopped looking for work, then that person is not counted in the U3 number as unemployed. He also notes that if someone works just one hour a week and is paid $20, he or she is not counted as unemployed.
    Not true. If you worked for pay, you are counted as employed that week. But somebody getting paid cash under the table is counted as not working (even though they are). If they are paid in cash and claim to be looking for a job, they are in the labor force and unemployed. If they are paid in cash and say they are not looking for work, they are counted as not in the labor force.

    It is true that if somebody is not looking for a job they are not counted as being in the labor force. If you have not bothered to look for work in over a year, do you really want one?

    Eberstadt reports that in 2014 there were 7.2 million prime-working-age men not in the labor force.
    Why were they not in the labor force? Were they in school? Were they stay at home parents? Were they disabled? Did they just not want to work? Did they want a job and were unsuccessful at finding one?

    Recent BLS statistics for September: http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea38.pdf

    Not in the Labor Force: 94,456,000
    Say they don't want a job now: 88,703,000
    Want A Job: 5,753,000

    Of those who wanted a job:
    Didn't look for one in the past year: 3,400,000
    Searched in Last Year but not previous four weeks: 2,353,000
    Not available for work now: 509,000

    So if we don't count those who say they don't want a job and those who haven't looked in the past year and those who say they are not currently available for a job, we have about 1.85 million.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 10-19-2016 at 12:03 AM.

  4. #3
    In an interview Eberstadt said, “If American men over the age of 20 just had the same work rates that our society had back in 1965 … there would be almost 10 million more men with paid jobs.”
    What about women? If women had the same labor force participation rate as in 1965, (39.5% vs 57%https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300002 ) today there would be 23 million FEWER jobs filled.



    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 10-18-2016 at 11:38 PM.

  5. #4
    Which is why you are the uninvited resident paid troll.

    ---

    Yup. Definitely getting better.

    http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2163...oyment-crisis/
    Last edited by DamianTV; 10-19-2016 at 08:31 AM.
    1776 > 1984

    The FAILURE of the United States Government to operate and maintain an
    Honest Money System , which frees the ordinary man from the clutches of the money manipulators, is the single largest contributing factor to the World's current Economic Crisis.

    The Elimination of Privacy is the Architecture of Genocide

    Belief, Money, and Violence are the three ways all people are controlled

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Our central bank is not privately owned.

  6. #5
    No, he is the resident statistician.

    If you actually bother to look at the unemployment numbers, they do break it down into all kinds of categories. The often reported number is the one that has been reported for decades.

  7. #6
    You know, Zippy as been on this site for over eight years and has over thirty thousand posts. As far back as I can remember to my first few months on the site, he's been pulling this shtick. Did he start out differently or has he always been a government android?
    Quote Originally Posted by Sister Miriam Godwinson View Post
    We Must Dissent.

  8. #7
    But if the statistics are not "official," then are they true? Zippy, it can't be both ways. Either these men are permanently employed full time at good wages with benefits, or they aren't. A day laborer getting paid under the table is not permanently employed with benefits.
    #NashvilleStrong

    “I’m a doctor. That’s a baby.”~~~Dr. Manny Sethi

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Spikender View Post
    You know, Zippy as been on this site for over eight years and has over thirty thousand posts. As far back as I can remember to my first few months on the site, he's been pulling this shtick. Did he start out differently or has he always been a government android?
    You would think anybody, after this many posts with mostly negative feedback, would get a clue. Zippy is however oblivious or pretends to be oblivious of the situation and trolls like he was the sharpest knife in a drawer. Is there a DSM-5 code for this?



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by DamianTV View Post
    Which is why you are the uninvited resident paid troll.

    ---

    Yup. Definitely getting better.

    http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2163...oyment-crisis/
    Your chart shows the same information as mine- it just makes it look more dramatic by changing the scale. It is very different when you make it run from zero to 100% (like mine) than if you use only 88 to 98% (like yours).

    It shows a ten percent decline over a 60 year period.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 10-19-2016 at 06:16 PM.

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Your chart shows the same information as mine- it just makes it look more dramatic by changing the scale. It is very different when you make it run from zero to 100% (like mine) than if you use only 88 to 98% (like yours).

    It shows a ten percent decline over a 60 year period.
    So how exactly are things "better" or "just fine" like you always try to say it is? Have you tried to apply for a job in the last ten years?
    1776 > 1984

    The FAILURE of the United States Government to operate and maintain an
    Honest Money System , which frees the ordinary man from the clutches of the money manipulators, is the single largest contributing factor to the World's current Economic Crisis.

    The Elimination of Privacy is the Architecture of Genocide

    Belief, Money, and Violence are the three ways all people are controlled

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Our central bank is not privately owned.

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by DamianTV View Post
    Have you tried to apply for a job in the last ten years?
    He doesn't have to; shilling of this magnitude pays well, I'm sure.
    Quote Originally Posted by Sister Miriam Godwinson View Post
    We Must Dissent.

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by DamianTV View Post
    So how exactly are things "better" or "just fine" like you always try to say it is? Have you tried to apply for a job in the last ten years?
    I am sorry. You are right- nobody has a job today.

    Are things perfect with everybody rich and working a satisfying high paying job? No- that will never happen. Are things considerably better than they were during the recession? Most definitely. Has everybody had their lives improved? Again, that too does not happen. But overall, things are a lot better and we are not crashing off an economic cliff.

    Your point- that the labor force participation rate has been falling is true- that dates back to the 1950's. But the change has been slow and gradual. According to your chart, since the middle of the recession it has moved from about 90 to about 88.5.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 10-20-2016 at 02:12 PM.

  15. #13
    Zippy - the master of logical fallacies - strikes back.

  16. #14
    I think you guys are missing the elephant in the room. It doesn't really matter that much whether the economy is doing well, the fact is that it's unsustainable. We're bleeding trillions of dollars of red ink to sustain this "recovery".

    I could take expensive vacations, buy a big house and car and quit my job and according to the government my economy would be the best ever.

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    I think you guys are missing the elephant in the room. It doesn't really matter that much whether the economy is doing well, the fact is that it's unsustainable. We're bleeding trillions of dollars of red ink to sustain this "recovery".

    I could take expensive vacations, buy a big house and car and quit my job and according to the government my economy would be the best ever.
    Think about the economic impact of boob jobs on GDP.

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    Think about the economic impact of boob jobs on GDP.
    It would be HUGE.



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  20. #17
    Think how many high paying jobs you could have if nobody spent anything! (jobs are only created if people buy things- if nobody buys things, employers fire or lay off people).

  21. #18
    I've never been busier. It's killing me at my age but I don't mind. Cool hard cash! Woohoo!

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Think how many high paying jobs you could have if nobody spent anything! (jobs are only created if people buy things- if nobody buys things, employers fire or lay off people).
    Did you come up with this on your own?

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    Did you come up with this on your own?
    I think he used something called math, or maybe logic...or maybe both!

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Think how many high paying jobs you could have if nobody spent anything! (jobs are only created if people buy things- if nobody buys things, employers fire or lay off people).
    Without good paying jobs and 50 million people on welfare and 92 working age americans not in the work force, nobody has a way to earn money to spend anything. I'll bet we could create at least 5 good paying jobs if we laid Zippy off.
    1776 > 1984

    The FAILURE of the United States Government to operate and maintain an
    Honest Money System , which frees the ordinary man from the clutches of the money manipulators, is the single largest contributing factor to the World's current Economic Crisis.

    The Elimination of Privacy is the Architecture of Genocide

    Belief, Money, and Violence are the three ways all people are controlled

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Our central bank is not privately owned.

  25. #22
    92 working age americans not in the work force
    Ninety two, eh?

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Ninety two, eh?
    Do you ever contemplate the possibility of being wrong? Like here, it is obvious from the context 92 stands for 92 million but your comprehension skills are not up to par so you decide to blame the other party.

  27. #24
    92 million includes all Americans- not just "working age" Americans- not in the labor force so no, it did not fit. http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000

    92 working age americans not in the work force,
    Why aren't they in the labor force?



    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 10-20-2016 at 09:17 PM.



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  29. #25
    Problem is the reports are always coming from the U3 numbers and not the U6 numbers. If they reported the U6 numbers, then people would see the dire straits we are actually in. Not going to happen though.

    http://unemploymentdata.com/unemploy...-unemployment/
    Last edited by Feelgood; 10-20-2016 at 10:13 PM.
    Freedom Report

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    "I am convinced that there are more threats to American liberty within the 10 mile radius of my office on Capitol Hill than there are on the rest of the globe." -- Ron Paul

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    92 million includes all Americans- not just "working age" Americans- not in the labor force so no, it did not fit. http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000
    You are lying again:
    Age: 16 years and over

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Think how many high paying jobs you could have if nobody spent anything! (jobs are only created if people buy things- if nobody buys things, employers fire or lay off people).
    It's called a recession and we have no choice but to go through one. It's necessary when you spend more than you earn and go into debt. You can't spend more than you earn forever, despite what Keynesians will have you believe. At some point you have to stop spending and start saving. And the reason we overspent is because the Federal govt and Federal reserve "stimulated" the economy.

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Feelgood View Post
    Problem is the reports are always coming from the U3 numbers and not the U6 numbers. If they reported the U6 numbers, then people would see the dire straits we are actually in. Not going to happen though.

    http://unemploymentdata.com/unemploy...-unemployment/
    The U-6 is the broadest measure of unemployment including those who have given up looking for work and those who are working part-time but would prefer to work full-time.
    So you think that people who are not looking for a job should be counted as unemployed. Do the want a job if they are not looking?

    Should people who want a better job (who wouldn't like a better job?) but do at least have one be counted as unemployed?

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    It's called a recession and we have no choice but to go through one. It's necessary when you spend more than you earn and go into debt. You can't spend more than you earn forever, despite what Keynesians will have you believe. At some point you have to stop spending and start saving. And the reason we overspent is because the Federal govt and Federal reserve "stimulated" the economy.
    Eventually there will be another recession. But according to some people, a recession has always existed since the country started.

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    So you think that people who are not looking for a job should be counted as unemployed.
    If they are not currently employed and are not looking, uh yeah! Thats still the definition of un-employed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Do the want a job if they are not looking?
    I'm sure they do, unless all these pan handlers I see on the corners everywhere I go are just lying?

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Should people who want a better job (who wouldn't like a better job?) but do at least have one be counted as unemployed?
    Yes. These are people that are considered under employed. They have a job but it is part time instead of full, or are college educated and have to settle for a job far less than they are qualified for.

    Yes, I would like to see and expect these numbers to be more representative of reality.
    Freedom Report

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    "I am convinced that there are more threats to American liberty within the 10 mile radius of my office on Capitol Hill than there are on the rest of the globe." -- Ron Paul

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