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Thread: Donald Trump is poised to lose in the biggest landslide in modern American history

  1. #1

    Donald Trump is poised to lose in the biggest landslide in modern American history

    Donald Trump is poised to lose in the biggest landslide in modern American history

    The conventional wisdom has calcified: Donald Trump is going to lose to Hillary Clinton.

    Sure, there have been brief moments when the outcome seemed in doubt when the FBI director called Clinton's handling of her emails while secretary of state "extremely careless"; when it looked for about a half-hour that Trump received a significant bump from the GOP convention. But for the most part, and especially in the month since the conclusion of the Democratic convention, the race has settled into a stable pattern, with Clinton running between 4 and 8 points ahead of Trump nationally and beating him in most, if not all, of the so-called swing states. Hence the conventional wisdom: Trump will lose.

    But the conventional wisdom is wrong. Trump isn't merely going to lose. He's going to lose in the biggest popular vote landslide in modern presidential history.

    Democrat George McGovern finished with 37.5 percent in his 1972 race against Richard Nixon, the lowest tally for a major party nominee in a two-person race since Republican Alf Landon pulled in 36.5 percent against FDR in 1936. (George H.W. Bush managed to win 37.4 percent in his 1992 contest against Bill Clinton and Ross Perot, with the latter coming in at 18.9 percent of the vote.) Trump is now on track to challenge all of these results. It's not crazy to think he'll finish with less than 35 percent of the popular vote.

    The electoral map will be different. Trump will lose there, too though unlike McGovern, who pulled in only 17 electoral votes, Trump is pretty much guaranteed a triple-digit tally of electoral votes thanks to overwhelming Republican dominance of states in the South, Midwest, and Intermountain West. The GOP could nominate a turnip and still win the South.

    But the popular vote will tell the democratic truth: Trump may well end up being the most unpopular candidate from a major party since before the New Deal.

    In the national popular vote, the RealClearPolitics average has Trump at 41.4 percent, while FiveThirtyEight estimates 42.5 percent. That's low, but not at all unprecedented, especially in a race with three or more serious competitors. Compared to Republican Barry Goldwater's 38.5 percent in 1964 and Democrat Walter Mondale's 40.6 percent in 1984, a Trump outcome of 42 percent would be far from humiliating.

    But he isn't going to finish at 42 percent.

    It's not because of Hillary Clinton's appeal as a candidate. Far from it. She's only polling in the mid-to-high 40s now. (RCP has her at 46.7 percent; FiveThirtyEight at 48 percent). That's about where she'll end up.

    Trump, by contrast, is going to sink. Voters are just beginning to understand a lesson that will be driven home by the debates and the merciless barrage of ads that the Clinton campaign will unleash against the GOP nominee in the final month of the campaign: that the only consistency about Trump is that he will disappoint and humiliate anyone who comes to believe in him.

    Trump invariably transforms supporters into suckers. And that is a recipe for a landslide loss.

    The list of prominent Republicans humiliated by Trump is very, very long: from Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio on down to Paul Ryan and John McCain. That has left Trump with a smaller base of supporters than one would expect from a major party nominee in 2016. (Mitt Romney was averaging 2-3 percentage points higher than Trump at this point in the race.)

    Now, many of those favoring Trump have been passionately devoted to the candidate. That is unlikely to persist through the trials that began roughly 10 days ago and are bound to continue over the coming weeks.

    Trump has reversed himself on a long list of policies over the years. But the one constant since he announced his candidacy for president in June 2015 has been his anti-immigrant stance. He would build a wall along the southern border of the United States and forcibly deport as many as 11 million undocumented immigrants. He's made the point over and over again at countless campaign rallies and events and in dozens of interviews and debates over the past 14 months. He alone will fix the problem of illegal immigration, unlike the losers who support various forms of amnesty, including the path to citizenship contained in the Gang of 8's immigration bill, which Rubio co-wrote.

    But now? As Ann Coulter learned on the eve of a book tour to promote her love letter to Trump for his all-around trustworthiness, especially on immigration, the GOP nominee is the most singularly unreliable figure in American politics, even on his signature issue. First Trump indicated that he doesn't think amnesty (in all but name) is really so bad after all. Then his surrogates made clear that his promised border wall and mass deportations might end up being more "virtual" than real. On Wednesday, Trump traveled to Mexico City, met with Mexico's president, apparently chickened out of backing up his long-held and loudly declared boasts of making Mexico pay for the border wall, and pronounced the country full of "great people." Just a few hours later, Trump delivered a furious tirade of a speech in Phoenix about the horrors of illegal immigration and assured the rowdy audience that Mexico would pay for "100 percent" of the border wall.

    Who knows what to believe?

    Between now and Election Day, Trump will surely offer up even more of a mish-mash of positions on immigration (along with every other issue), with some of them sounding like pivots to less extreme views and others reinforcing harsher stances. But it's already too late. There are now squishy sound bites to quote in debates and replay endlessly in campaign ads. Which is exactly what the Clinton camp will do over and over again. As the weeks go by, the hits are going to take a toll. They won't necessarily drive Trump's supporters into the hands of Gary Johnson or Evan McMullin, and they certainly won't inspire them to consider voting for Clinton. But Clinton doesn't need them to do that. She just needs them to stay home on Nov. 7. That's when Trump's failure to open field offices across the country is going to prove decisive and fatal.

    The most credulous members of the Trump fan club will show up to cast ballots for him no matter what he says and does. But the rest? An awful lot of them are likely to stay home out of simple self-respect. Precisely how many do so is what will make the difference between a loss and a historic wipeout.
    http://theweek.com/articles/646087/d...erican-history
    I dont think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president, he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. Hes the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul



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  3. #2
    Why do you post so many stories that will help bring more people out to vote for Trump?
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."

  4. #3
    That is not the intention.
    I dont think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president, he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. Hes the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  5. #4
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    Landslide. That's why Hillary is taking off a month for debate prep.

  6. #5
    Seems like it's guided more toward running interference for Hillary.

  7. #6
    Chester Copperpot
    Member

    yeah now from the TV news it seems the older cPUD headlines of trump flip flopping werent true,, oh well... i shouldnt be surprised

  8. #7
    One thing's for sure, we've seen some interesting maneuvering this cycle.

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Natural Citizen View Post
    Seems like it's guided more toward running interference for Hillary.
    There is some evidence for that, he has drawn the press away from her at his own expense.
    I dont think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president, he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. Hes the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Chester Copperpot View Post
    yeah now from the TV news it seems the older cPUD headlines of trump flip flopping werent true,, oh well... i shouldnt be surprised
    He didn't flip flop, he trip flopped. From L to R to L back to R again.
    I dont think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president, he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. Hes the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  12. #10
    Chester Copperpot
    Member

    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    He didn't flip flop, he trip flopped. From L to R to L back to R again.
    says you.... but the problem with believing anything you say is that you cannot be trusted to give true impartial information. You're disingenous at best

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Chester Copperpot View Post
    says you.... but the problem with believing anything you say is that you cannot be trusted to give true impartial information. You're disingenous at best
    Pretty much anything I post can be independently verified. Most folks here know that.
    I dont think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president, he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. Hes the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  14. #12
    I dont think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president, he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. Hes the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  15. #13
    Chester Copperpot
    Member

    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    Pretty much anything I post can be independently verified. Most folks here know that.
    youre with trump the way vegan user 'farreri' is with meat... never going to get an honest discussion about things because of the hatred you have for the person... Everybody, even Trump (and Hillary who i despise) have good aspects to them... But you never discuss them because youre on a mission to control, steer, and influence the discussion to one simply of "anti-trump" instead of being pro-liberty or pro-some-other-candidate... thats why you cant fool anybody here... I wouldnt mind having an honest discussion about all of Trump's bad points but it couldnt be with you because youre so one-sided... as for me, with all his faults I still believe Trump to be a much better candidate than Hillary so he will be getting my vote - unless by some miracle Johnson picks it up, but he could already be compromised himself. so who knows.

    Everybody just has to do what they think is best.. So if you truly believe Trump to be the anti-CHrist then continue having at it I guess.

  16. #14
    LOL
    Quote Originally Posted by Cowlesy View Post
    Americans in general are jedi masters of blaming every other person.

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Chester Copperpot View Post
    youre with trump the way vegan user 'farreri' is with meat... never going to get an honest discussion about things because of the hatred you have for the person... Everybody, even Trump (and Hillary who i despise) have good aspects to them... But you never discuss them because youre on a mission to control, steer, and influence the discussion to one simply of "anti-trump" instead of being pro-liberty or pro-some-other-candidate... thats why you cant fool anybody here... I wouldnt mind having an honest discussion about all of Trump's bad points but it couldnt be with you because youre so one-sided... as for me, with all his faults I still believe Trump to be a much better candidate than Hillary so he will be getting my vote - unless by some miracle Johnson picks it up, but he could already be compromised himself. so who knows.

    Everybody just has to do what they think is best.. So if you truly believe Trump to be the anti-CHrist then continue having at it I guess.
    I'm not "anti-Trump" and I definitely don't believe he is the Antichrist. You assume I'm on some kind of a mission, but the truth is much simpler.
    I dont think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president, he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. Hes the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    I'm not "anti-Trump" and I definitely don't believe he is the Antichrist. You assume I'm on some kind of a mission, but the truth is much simpler.
    Yeah you are a hillary lover.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cowlesy View Post
    Americans in general are jedi masters of blaming every other person.



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  20. #17
    Chester Copperpot
    Member

    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    I'm not "anti-Trump" and I definitely don't believe he is the Antichrist. You assume I'm on some kind of a mission, but the truth is much simpler.
    Whats hard to believe is that you are clearly anti-Trump but you dont realize it. Everybody on this site knows you are - except you it seems. I think you may fit the textbook definition for being deluded.

    You.are.anti-trump.

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Chester Copperpot View Post
    Whats hard to believe is that you are clearly anti-Trump but you dont realize it. Everybody on this site knows you are - except you it seems. I think you may fit the textbook definition for being deluded.

    You.are.anti-trump.
    I am pro-liberty. Really, I don't care who wins the POTUS, and since Rand suspended his campaign, I don''t really care who people vote for.
    I dont think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president, he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. Hes the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  22. #19
    Still waiting to see Hillary campaign releases/ads posted here like serious opinion pieces. Bet it happens before November.

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Lovecraftian4Paul View Post
    Still waiting to see Hillary campaign releases/ads posted here like serious opinion pieces. Bet it happens before November.
    This is the election forum for GOP and Dem candidates. You should expect to see campaign messaging discussed here.
    I dont think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president, he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. Hes the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    I am pro-liberty. Really, I don't care who wins the POTUS, and since Rand suspended his campaign, I don''t really care who people vote for.
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    This is the election forum for GOP and Dem candidates. You should expect to see campaign messaging discussed here.
    You are so in the bag for hillary no one cares about what you have to say.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cowlesy View Post
    Americans in general are jedi masters of blaming every other person.

  25. #22
    Trump invariably transforms supporters into suckers. And that is a recipe for a landslide loss.
    I dont think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president, he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. Hes the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Chester Copperpot View Post
    says you.... but the problem with believing anything you say is that you cannot be trusted to give true impartial information. You're disingenous at best
    Quote Originally Posted by Chester Copperpot View Post
    Whats hard to believe is that you are clearly anti-Trump but you dont realize it. Everybody on this site knows you are - except you it seems. I think you may fit the textbook definition for being deluded.

    You.are.anti-trump.
    Quote Originally Posted by silverhandorder View Post
    Yeah you are a hillary lover.
    Quote Originally Posted by silverhandorder View Post
    You are so in the bag for hillary no one cares about what you have to say.




    Last edited by Danke; 09-01-2016 at 08:51 PM.
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  27. #24
    Trump invariably transforms supporters into suckers. And that is a recipe for a landslide loss.
    I dont think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president, he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. Hes the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    I am pro-liberty. Really, I don't care who wins the POTUS, and since Rand suspended his campaign, I don''t really care who people vote for.
    Pfizer Macht Frei!

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    The Income Tax Is An Excise, And Excise Taxes Are Privilege Taxes

    The Federalist Papers, No. 15:

    Except as to the rule of appointment, the United States have an indefinite discretion to make requisitions for men and money; but they have no authority to raise either by regulations extending to the individual citizens of America.

  30. #26
    Trump invariably transforms supporters into suckers. And that is a recipe for a landslide loss.
    I dont think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president, he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. Hes the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  31. #27
    ,,,
    Pfizer Macht Frei!

    Openly Straight Man, Danke, Awarded Top Rated Influencer. Community Standards Enforcer.


    Quiz: Test Your "Income" Tax IQ!

    Short Income Tax Video

    The Income Tax Is An Excise, And Excise Taxes Are Privilege Taxes

    The Federalist Papers, No. 15:

    Except as to the rule of appointment, the United States have an indefinite discretion to make requisitions for men and money; but they have no authority to raise either by regulations extending to the individual citizens of America.

  32. #28
    Supporting Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    That is not the intention.
    Unintended consequences.

    I am considering voting for a Republican for president for the first time since 1988... just to spite you.
    Citizen of Arizona
    @cleaner4d4

    I am a libertarian. I am advocating everyone enjoy maximum freedom on both personal and economic issues as long as they do not bring violence unto others.

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    I guess that's right up his alley.

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    I cant quite put my finger on it, but Rick Perry seems smarter than usual in that interview
    It's all about taking action and not being lazy. So you do the work, whether it's fitness or whatever. It's about getting up, motivating yourself and just doing it.
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