Putin poised for new assault upon Ukraine

**Zippyjuan** · 08-21-2016, 06:47 PM

http://www.newsweek.com/putin-poised...ukraine-490764

Russian President Vladimir Putin may be preparing a new offensive in Ukraine.

Russia has prepared an excuse for a military incursion to connect Crimea with rebel-held areas of the Donbass in eastern Ukraine. Fighting along the corridor has already heated up; the Ukrainian military reports that on the night of August 8 more than 200 artillery and mortar rounds fell on Shyrokyne, on the Azov Sea coast east of Mariupol.

Now, following Russian claims of thwarted terrorist attacks in Crimea that the United States cannot confirm, Putin is vowing revenge. “We obviously will not let such things slide by,” he warned.

Putin met with his security council on August 11. According to a Kremlin spokesman, the group discussed “additional measures” for ensuring security. “Scenarios were carefully considered for anti-terrorist security measures at the land border, in the waters and in the airspace of Crimea.”

Separatists and the government believe a fresh outbreak in hostilities is imminent. “The situation remains tense, and at any moment it could break out and escalate into full-fledged clashes,” separatist leader Denis Pushilin worried.

On the other side, the military spokesman for Ukraine’s presidential administration said Ukrainian armed forces expect a new offensive at any time, possibly within the next week.

Russia is amassing troops on the administrative border of Crimea under the guise of war games, the annual Kavkaz exercises. Russia used war games in 2008 to amass troops on the border with Georgia before fighting broke out there.

Ukrainian border guards spotted nine Russian MI-8 helicopters and two drones flying in the area. Crimean Tatars reported armed checkpoints being hastily erected on August 7, the same day that Russian authorities closed border crossings into the peninsula for several hours.

In Kerch, Russia is amassing armored personnel carriers, military ambulances, fuel tankers, trucks, signals and engineering vehicles. In Sevastopol, a Nanuchka-class missile corvette is at anchor. In Dzhankoy, the troop level has been doubled, supposedly because a routine rotation of forces is taking place.

Ukraine is preparing for the worst. Residents in the Kherson region reported seeing Ukrainian heavy military hardware, including anti-tank rocket launchers, being deployed. A spokesman for Ukraine’s General Staff confirmed they had strengthened military units there.

Why now? The conflict in eastern Ukraine has reached a stalemate, even though fighting in the area has increased. July was the deadliest month in a year for the Ukrainian army, with at least 42 soldiers killed and 181 wounded.

Russia may believe it is overextended: It is supporting the rebels in Ukraine, fighting in Syria and suffering through a recession that is aggravated by Ukraine-related sanctions. It would be in Russia’s interest to bring a quick end to the fighting, even if Putin had to intervene militarily to do so.

Until now, the Kremlin has maintained it has no troops fighting in the Donbass region. With Putin calling the supposed incursions into Crimea Ukrainian state-sponsored terrorism, however, he has an excuse to openly intervene in the fighting.

The uptick in hostilities comes at a difficult time for the West: Kiev’s allies in the West are experiencing sanctions fatigue. Nevertheless, the United States and Europe must be prepared to increase the costs on Russia for further aggression.

**Zippyjuan** · 08-21-2016, 07:23 PM

Related: Is Putin's Job In Trouble over Ukraine?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joseph..._11613554.html

(won't allow copy/ paste- visit link). I don't think he is in much danger.

Two wars. Recession from sanctions/ fall in oil price. Sounds vaguely familiar to US at the end of Bush's presidency.

**goldenequity** · 08-21-2016, 07:27 PM

Over 2,500 Soros docs leaked... here's a glimpse into just 1.
Just 1.
Find out just how the Lizard works

This is a Public Service Announcement.
Cheers.

===========================

►US sees no signs of Russian invasion of Ukraine: Pentagon

**Zippyjuan** · 08-21-2016, 10:00 PM

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-uk...KCN10U16R?il=0

Putin flies into Crimea amid war games and tension

Vladimir Putin flew into annexed Crimea on Friday a day after staging war games there, and said he hoped Ukraine would see "common sense" when it came to resolving a diplomatic crisis over the peninsula.

Two years after Russian troops seized the peninsula, it is again the focus of international tension, after the Russian president accused Kiev last week of sending saboteurs who clashed with Russian troops.

Kiev, which has also fought a two year war against pro-Russian separatists in two eastern provinces, denies the border incident ever took place and calls it a fabrication that could be used as a pretext for a new Russian invasion.

The Russian leader has used threatening rhetoric, promising unspecified "counter-measures", and has built up troops ahead of a big military exercise next month.

He addressed the crisis again on Friday, opening a meeting of his Security Council at an air base near the naval port of Sevastopol on his first visit to Crimea since he made the initial accusations.

"It is clear that we have gathered for a well known reason after the infamous incident, after we thwarted attempts by groups of Ukrainian army saboteurs to break into (our) territory," he said.

"Judging by all accounts, our partners in Kiev have decided to escalate the situation. We are all familiar with this method of escalation. It goes back a long way and has sometimes been used successfully but not always.

"I hope that this won't be a final choice ... and that common sense will prevail," he added.

WAR GAMES

On Thursday, Russian naval and land forces practiced swiftly moving military hardware and troops to Crimea, already one of the world's most militarised areas, in a logistics exercise that foreshadows larger war games planned for next month.

Russia's Black Sea Fleet, around 2,500 troops and up to 350 armored vehicles were involved in the exercise, which unfolded as tensions have also flared in eastern Ukraine, where a truce that curbed fighting is looking increasingly shaky.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on Thursday he did not rule out introducing martial law and a new wave of military mobilization if the east Ukraine conflict worsened.

Putin on Friday accused the Ukrainian government of trying to destabilize Crimea to distract attention from its failure to implement a peace deal covering the conflict in eastern Ukraine, a region known as the Donbass.

While fighting that killed thousands of people in the Donbass has ebbed since early 2015, pro-Russian separatists there regularly exchange fire with Ukrainian government forces, and both sides accuse each other of failing to implement terms of the truce, known as the Minsk peace process.

Although Kiev believes Putin is preparing for more fighting, some experts believe he is more interested in gaining diplomatic leverage, seeking to use the latest crisis to prod the West to press Ukraine into doing more to uphold the accords.

"Despite the strongly worded statements by Putin, and the continued Russian military build-up on Ukraine's borders, IHS Markit continues to hold the view that Russia is not preparing for an imminent overt invasion," said Alex Kokcharov, principal analyst at the London-based consultancy.

"By accusing Ukraine of terrorism and by building up military threats, Russia is attempting to weaken Western support for Kiev and to pressure both the West and Ukraine to agree to the Donbass settlement on Moscow's terms."

**Zippyjuan** · 08-23-2016, 12:48 PM

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...26d_story.html

Tensions mount between Russia and Ukraine ahead of military drills

KIEV, Ukraine — By any standard, the drumbeat of growing tensions between Russia and Ukraine this month has been especially ominous.

It began as Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Kiev of embracing the “tactics of terror,” after Russia claimed to have caught Ukrainian saboteurs in Crimea. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko put troops on alert and warned that the country might have to move toward martial law and mobilization if the conflict in the east or Crimea escalated.

Russia is set to hold large military drills on the peninsula next month. And in eastern Ukraine, the use of heavy weapons between Russian-backed separatists and the army has increased as opposing trenches have crept so close that opposing fighters can shout across the breach.

Analysts say tensions are at their highest since the signing of what are known as the Minsk agreements in February 2015.

And in Kiev, it is not unusual to hear again that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine.

“We view it as a real threat,” said Mikhail Samus, deputy director for international affairs at the Kiev-based Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies. He added that a Russian Security Council meeting led by Putin in Crimea this weekend increased concerns of an escalation.

“Putin is controlling the situation, and that makes it the most dangerous situation,” Samus said.

An incident earlier this month, the facts of which are hotly disputed, appeared to be a possible flash point. Russia claims that Ukrainian intelligence staged a high-level raid led by a former soldier, Yevgeny Panov. Ukrainian troops also fired across the border, Russia said, and two Russian servicemen were killed.

Ukraine said the incident was invented. Later, a senior military intelligence officer told Poro*shenko that Russian soldiers had shelled themselves.

The truth likely lies somewhere in between.

“Whether Crimea happened or did not happen does not matter anymore,” said Michael Kofman, a fellow at the Kennan Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars who focuses on post-Soviet security issues. “Russia can make it real by simply reacting to it as though it was real.”