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Thread: Trump Is Doubling Down On A Losing Strategy

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    Trump Is Doubling Down On A Losing Strategy



    Trump Is Doubling Down On A Losing Strategy

    By Nate Silver

    Filed under 2016 Election

    One quirk of the American political system is that a candidate can win a primary with a much narrower slice of the electorate than he’d need to win a general election. Donald Trump claimed 45 percent of the vote in Republican primaries and caucuses this year, about 14 million votes. That’s a healthy total as these things go: the highest number of votes ever received by a Republican in the primaries. But Trump will need four or five times as many votes — perhaps 65 million — to win in November. His primary voters are just a drop in the bucket.

    All presidential candidates face some version of this problem. But most make at least some effort to expand beyond their base and build a majority coalition. Trump hasn’t — and he has his work cut out for him like no nominee in history. Trump’s decision this week to make Stephen Bannon of the combative, anti-establishment website Breitbart News his campaign’s chief executive suggests that he’s moving in the opposite direction.

    In January, even as he stood atop Republican primary polls, Trump was exceptionally unpopular with general election voters. At that time, Trump had a 33 percent favorable rating and a 58 percent unfavorable rating with the general electorate. Today? His numbers are even worse. His favorability rating is just 32 percent, according to the HuffPost Pollster aggregate, while his unfavorable rating has risen to 65 percent.

    Trump is helped by the fact that Hillary Clinton might be the second-most-unpopular nominee ever, after Trump. But still, remarkably few Americans are willing to commit to voting for Trump. In the table below, I’ve listed every poll from a 2012 swing state1 taken since the conventions. On average, Trump has just 37 percent of the vote in these polls (Clinton has 44 percent). That puts him on par with Barry Goldwater and George McGovern, who each got 38 percent of the vote in their respective landslide defeats of 1964 and 1972.



    Trump will probably finish with more than 37 percent by picking off some undecided and third-party voters.2 Still, with almost two-thirds of voters holding an unfavorable view of Trump, it’s not clear how many more people he can rally to his side without a big change in tone and message.

    ...
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...sing-strategy/
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul



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  3. #2
    Likely not for much longer since you could see the flip in strategy tonight. His NC speech was carried live in prime-time and it was very different from past campaign events where he talks off the cuff about those whom have wronged him. He rather hit on all the right economic talking points that will appeal to voters across the political spectrum. He was really on his game and probably one of the best speeches of his campaign.
    * See my visitor message area for caveats related to my posting history here.
    * Also, I have effectively retired from all social media including posting here and are basically opting out of anything to do with national politics or this country on federal or state level and rather focusing locally. I may stop by from time to time to discuss philosophy on a general level related to Libertarian schools of thought and application in the real world.

  4. #3
    30 year old wealthy elite educated gated liberal jew Nate Silver is in touch with the average swing vote. Sure.
    BOWLING GREEN, Kentucky – Washington liberals are trying to push through the so-called DREAM Act, which creates an official path to Democrat voter registration for 2 million college-age illegal immigrants.
    Rand Paul 2010

    Booker T. Washington:
    Cast it down among the eight millions of Negroes whose habits you know, whose
    fidelity and love you have tested in days when to have proved treacherous meant the ruin of your firesides.

  5. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by kahless View Post
    Likely not for much longer since you could see the flip in strategy tonight. His NC speech was carried live in prime-time and it was very different from past campaign events where he talks off the cuff about those whom have wronged him. He rather hit on all the right economic talking points that will appeal to voters across the political spectrum. He was really on his game and probably one of the best speeches of his campaign.
    The polls were altered to make DJT unpalatable to the weakminded. It's the herd mentality strategy at work. Think of someone who places a 'poison' sign at the shore of a lake. That's the purpose of these skewed polls.

    Hillary can't even fill up high school gymnasiums across the state of Pennsylvania, while Trump is often turning away several hundreds in various locations. Enthusiasm is on Trump's side.
    Last edited by AuH20; 08-18-2016 at 08:14 PM.

  6. #5
    Ron Paul got hella large crowds, too. Not all of them showed up at the polls.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

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    Quote Originally Posted by RandallFan View Post
    30 year old wealthy elite educated gated liberal jew Nate Silver is in touch with the average swing vote. Sure.
    Here's the problem I have with Nate Silver. His volatile model seems to be hocus pocus if DJT can jump to the high 50 percentile as the victor and then crash down to below 20 percent in less than two weeks. Trump did nothing catastrophic during that time to incur a drastic change like that. The Khan story was overblown because the driving issue is the lackluster economy. No one is overly concerned about some fabricated Gold Star nonsense from a Muslim immigration lawyer. I'm not buying it's significance.

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by AuH20 View Post
    Here's the problem I have with Nate Silver. His volatile model seems to be hocus pocus if DJT can jump to the high 50 percentile as the victor and then crash down to below 20 percent in less than two weeks. Trump did nothing catastrophic during that time to incur a drastic change like that. The Khan story was overblown because the driving issue is the lackluster economy. No one is overly concerned about some fabricated Gold Star nonsense from a Muslim immigration lawyer. I'm not buying it's significance.
    LOL just about everything he did since the convention has been catastrophic. Voters don't want to hear that $#@!, and they are letting him know.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by AuH20 View Post
    The polls were altered to make DJT unpalatable to the weakminded. It's the herd mentality strategy at work. Think of someone who places a 'poison' sign at the shore of a lake. That's the purpose of these skewed polls.

    Hillary can't even fill up high school gymnasiums across the state of Pennsylvania, while Trump is often turning away several hundreds in various locations. Enthusiasm is on Trump's side.
    CPUd's job it seems is to post the poison sign on RPF. With the lack of low information voters here it is a wasted effort.

    7 Times Nate Silver Was Hilariously Wrong About Donald Trump - Hat tip to @RandallFan
    http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/04/7-...#ixzz4HjzODJw4
    * See my visitor message area for caveats related to my posting history here.
    * Also, I have effectively retired from all social media including posting here and are basically opting out of anything to do with national politics or this country on federal or state level and rather focusing locally. I may stop by from time to time to discuss philosophy on a general level related to Libertarian schools of thought and application in the real world.



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    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    Ron Paul got hella large crowds, too. Not all of them showed up at the polls.
    I guess that's a valid point. But the question I pose to Hillary supporters. If they can't show up at her rallies, why does anyone think that some will wait in long lines from 45 minutes to an hour in some busy districts? It's not going to happen IMHO. The only real reliable voting demographic she has, will be urban blacks and single women. Beyond that, mileage may vary. However, early voting does not help Trump due to the potential for voter fraud.

  12. #10
    Nate Silver mitigates big issues & and elevates small issues in the polling.

    Big Issue: Trump loves Murica; Clinton doesn't give $#@! either way.

    Id say the average 50 year old white woman in Ohio is way less offended by Trump's so called anti-mexican, anti-BLM, fat ass women comments, Real Housewives type trashtalk then a 30 year old who went to the best schools in chicago & london.


    Any woman less attractive & less famous than Megyn Kelly is totally offend by Trump.

    He said Jeb's immigration stance was harmless to his appeal.

    They aren't letting him know. 30% of blacks and 50% of hispanics aren't voting in November & are staying at home.

    Not that he needs or will get a turnout a lot of moderate jews are probably offended by Israel-all-the-time rhetoric of the GOP alternatives to Trump.
    Last edited by RandallFan; 08-18-2016 at 08:31 PM.
    BOWLING GREEN, Kentucky – Washington liberals are trying to push through the so-called DREAM Act, which creates an official path to Democrat voter registration for 2 million college-age illegal immigrants.
    Rand Paul 2010

    Booker T. Washington:
    Cast it down among the eight millions of Negroes whose habits you know, whose
    fidelity and love you have tested in days when to have proved treacherous meant the ruin of your firesides.

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by AuH20 View Post
    I guess that's a valid point. But the question I pose to Hillary supporters. If they can't show up at her rallies, why does anyone think that some will wait in long lines from 45 minutes to an hour in some busy districts? It's not going to happen IMHO. The only real reliable voting demographic she has, will be urban blacks and single women. Beyond that, mileage may vary. However, early voting does not help Trump due to the potential for voter fraud.
    They'll do it the same way they did for Obama in 2012. What Ted Cruz had in Iowa, the Democrats have in all 50 states. Go look how hard Orca failed Team Mitt in 2012.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  14. #12
    Mitt didnt' win rustbelt whites. The only reason he lost. He tied hispanic florida. Now people think he should do what rand did and speak to empty rooms in Detroit every week.
    BOWLING GREEN, Kentucky – Washington liberals are trying to push through the so-called DREAM Act, which creates an official path to Democrat voter registration for 2 million college-age illegal immigrants.
    Rand Paul 2010

    Booker T. Washington:
    Cast it down among the eight millions of Negroes whose habits you know, whose
    fidelity and love you have tested in days when to have proved treacherous meant the ruin of your firesides.

  15. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    They'll do it the same way they did for Obama in 2012. What Ted Cruz had in Iowa, the Democrats have in all 50 states. Go look how hard Orca failed Team Mitt in 2012.
    You really think they can turn out in the Obama coalition in this dismal economic climate? I'm extremely skeptical. The democrat coalition is burnt out to a degree, even with the looming threat of Trump. Morale is really in the toilet, thanks to whole Bernie saga. I don't see it, but I could be wrong.

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by AuH20 View Post
    You really think they can turn out in the Obama coalition in this dismal economic climate? I'm extremely skeptical. The democrat coalition is burnt out to a degree, even with the looming threat of Trump. I don't see it, but I could be wrong.
    Not everyone believes the economy is dismal.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by RandallFan View Post
    Mitt didnt' win rustbelt whites. The only reason he lost. He tied hispanic florida. Now people think he should do what rand did and speak to empty rooms in Detroit every week.
    Mitt lost because he couldn't get enough people to vote for him.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  18. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    Not everyone believes the economy is dismal.
    The Bernie people do. That was the entire thrust of their campaign. The plutocrat driven economy was stealing more and more from the middle class. Many Bernie supporters were dismayed that good paying jobs are becoming scarcer and scarcer as recent graduates enter the marketplace.
    Last edited by AuH20; 08-18-2016 at 08:42 PM.



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by AuH20 View Post
    The Bernie people do. That was the entire thrust of their campaign. The plutocrat driven economy was stealing more and more from the middle class.
    No they don't. Sanders supporters strongly supported him because of his progressive policies and because they said he was anti establishment. Sanders supporters think college education should be free and that health care should be free and that minimum wage should be scaled to inflation. Their candidate promised them a magical solution and he was never really challenged on it. Trump definitely might put those policies in his platform though, he does believe in them.

  21. #18
    ads start tomorrow for trump. This is a rope-a-dope folks. It's ok if you don't understand after 3 failed campaigns on this forum.
    I just want objectivity on this forum and will point out flawed sources or points of view at my leisure.

    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 01/15/24
    Trump will win every single state primary by double digits.
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 04/20/16
    There won't be a contested convention
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 05/30/17
    The shooting of Gabrielle Gifford was blamed on putting a crosshair on a political map. I wonder what event we'll see justified with pictures like this.

  22. #19
    BOWLING GREEN, Kentucky – Washington liberals are trying to push through the so-called DREAM Act, which creates an official path to Democrat voter registration for 2 million college-age illegal immigrants.
    Rand Paul 2010

    Booker T. Washington:
    Cast it down among the eight millions of Negroes whose habits you know, whose
    fidelity and love you have tested in days when to have proved treacherous meant the ruin of your firesides.

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    Ron Paul got hella large crowds, too. Not all of them showed up at the polls.
    the demographics were very different at there events. Apples and oranges. The never hillary crowd is massive and motivated.
    "Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it; no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it."
    James Madison

    "It does not take a majority to prevail ... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men." - Samuel Adams



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  24. #21
    I fail to grasp the idea that people who don't like Hillary and don't like Trump are going to vote for one or the other in spite. That's what the media keeps telling me though so I am trying to understand it. I think its just much more likely that the people who don't like Trump or Hillary will either not vote at all or vote for a third party. If that is the case then all of the polls showing that the race is close are way off base. If that's the case then the person who wins will be the one who unites the party the most.

  25. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by puppetmaster View Post
    the demographics were very different at there events. Apples and oranges. The never hillary crowd is massive and motivated.
    The exclusively Never Trump or NeverHillary factions won't decide the election. Trump has the advantage of a far more motivated fanbase that would crawl through a path of hot coals for Trump. However, Hillary does have the notorious 'drag you out of the alley' ground game where they literally throw you into a van and drop you off at the polling station with a ten dollar bill in your pocket.

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by AuH20 View Post
    Here's the problem I have with Nate Silver. His volatile model seems to be hocus pocus if DJT can jump to the high 50 percentile as the victor and then crash down to below 20 percent in less than two weeks. Trump did nothing catastrophic during that time to incur a drastic change like that. The Khan story was overblown because the driving issue is the lackluster economy. No one is overly concerned about some fabricated Gold Star nonsense from a Muslim immigration lawyer. I'm not buying it's significance.
    The model didn't do that. Silver doesn't type Khan into the model and numbers change. It's the poll results that changed.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Pinochet is the model
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Liberty preserving authoritarianism.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Enforced internal open borders was one of the worst elements of the Constitution.

  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by AuH20 View Post
    Trump has the advantage of a far more motivated fanbase that would crawl through a path of hot coals for Trump.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Pinochet is the model
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Liberty preserving authoritarianism.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Enforced internal open borders was one of the worst elements of the Constitution.



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    Ron Paul got hella large crowds, too. Not all of them showed up at the polls.
    I was at a Ron Paul event at a college that had 10+ thowow, they turned people away. Crowd was very enthused - but also almost everyone was under 28.
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by kahless View Post
    Likely not for much longer since you could see the flip in strategy tonight. His NC speech was carried live in prime-time and it was very different from past campaign events where he talks off the cuff about those whom have wronged him. He rather hit on all the right economic talking points that will appeal to voters across the political spectrum. read what Kellyanne put on the teleprompter for him. He was really on his game and probably one of the best speeches of his campaign.
    FTFY.

    Please tell me you're not this naïve.
    "And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works." - Bastiat

    "It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere." - Voltaire

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by AuH20 View Post
    I guess that's a valid point. But the question I pose to Hillary supporters. If they can't show up at her rallies, why does anyone think that some will wait in long lines from 45 minutes to an hour in some busy districts? It's not going to happen IMHO. The only real reliable voting demographic she has, will be urban blacks and single women. Beyond that, mileage may vary. However, early voting does not help Trump due to the potential for voter fraud.
    Maybe dedicating time and effort to attend a rally for someone you already support is considered a waste. Showing up on election day and voting is the real deal.

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by CaptUSA View Post
    FTFY.

    Please tell me you're not this naïve.
    From the little coverage I saw this morning the media seems to concur with my observation of last nights speech. You are so irrational in your hatred of Trump you are unable to make objective observations and stoop to insults.
    * See my visitor message area for caveats related to my posting history here.
    * Also, I have effectively retired from all social media including posting here and are basically opting out of anything to do with national politics or this country on federal or state level and rather focusing locally. I may stop by from time to time to discuss philosophy on a general level related to Libertarian schools of thought and application in the real world.

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by kahless View Post
    From the little coverage I saw this morning the media seems to concur with my observation of last nights speech. You are so irrational in your hatred of Trump you are unable to make objective observations and stoop to insults.
    Um... he read it straight from the teleprompter. Words written after Kellyanne's role was expanded. You really think he just miraculously had a change in tone?? They're going to want him to stick to the teleprompter from here on out.

    "Naïve" is not meant to be an insult; it's meant to make you question yourself. Damn, you guys are so easily conned. You just believe what you want to believe.

    And it that the same media that is "out to get him"?!! Geez, make up your mind.
    "And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works." - Bastiat

    "It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere." - Voltaire

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by CaptUSA View Post
    Um... he read it straight from the teleprompter. Words written after Kellyanne's role was expanded. You really think he just miraculously had a change in tone?? They're going to want him to stick to the teleprompter from here on out.

    "Naïve" is not meant to be an insult; it's meant to make you question yourself. Damn, you guys are so easily conned. You just believe what you want to believe.

    And it that the same media that is "out to get him"?!! Geez, make up your mind.
    It does not matter that he was reading off a teleprompter or who wrote it. The observation was that it is a change in strategy that resulted in one of the best speeches of his campaign. The media is taking notice of it today. Polls will shoot up since that is how fickle people and the polls are.

    I disagreed wholeheartedly with Obama's policies ,thought he was full of $#@! and was angry people would buy into his speeches. But that was not to say when you observed his speeches you knew he was saying all the right things - in platitudes that the mainstream voter eats up.

    Again, you have lost your observational objectivity for this race. Go and watch some Mark Dice videos or go to the local cafe to discuss politics with the average voter, then come back for a discussion.
    * See my visitor message area for caveats related to my posting history here.
    * Also, I have effectively retired from all social media including posting here and are basically opting out of anything to do with national politics or this country on federal or state level and rather focusing locally. I may stop by from time to time to discuss philosophy on a general level related to Libertarian schools of thought and application in the real world.

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