Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and the Polls
You have to go back 40 years to find a presidential candidate saying something quite as loony about Russia as the many things Donald Trump said in his press conference Wednesday. I’m thinking of Gerald Ford’s famous claim—toward the end of a debate with Jimmy Carter in October 1976—that there was “no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe.” President Ford, not known for oratorical skill, apparently meant to say that Moscow’s control over its neighbors was not legitimate. No matter: The pundits, the politicians, and the public held his gaffe against him anyway. Some even thought it cost him the election. At the height of the Cold War—and with Henry Kissinger’s détente policy a hot campaign issue—it did not pay to seem unaware of Soviet imperialism.
But what about today? If Mr. Trump’s advisers wanted to find some solace in the polls, could they? The Cold War, after all, is a quarter-century in the past, and some people—the Republican nominee included, it seems—think the U.S. should take a more relaxed view of Russia. Does the public agree?
The bad news for the Trump campaign is that the American people have become increasingly hostile toward Russia since the Ukraine crisis became acute in early 2014. Consider the responses over time to Pew Research Center questions about Russia. In the fall of 2013, 40% of respondents described Russia as “not much of a problem.” By March 2014 (just days after Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea) that share had fallen to 22%. By the summer (right after MH17, a Malaysian Airlines flight, was shot down over separatist-held territory), only 15% felt that Russia was not much of a problem.
Even before the Ukraine crisis, of course, many Americans were on guard when it came to President Putin. Still, the 36% who described Russia as a “serious problem but not an adversary” in the fall of 2013 had expanded to 49% in the summer of 2014. And the 18% who had seen Moscow as a clear “adversary” even in 2013 had grown to 26% the following summer. The American public, in other words, was now wary-to-hostile toward Russia by a margin of 75% to 15%—a five-fold difference.
These numbers have softened in the past two years, but they don’t provide much comfort for the Trump campaign. Some Trump advisers may seek refuge in the thought that their candidate has made preposterous and uninformed comments in the past and paid no price for it. But in key states Mr. Trump has to win—Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin—outrage at his remarks among voters with Eastern European roots will be greater still.
If Jerry Ford, remembering 1976, were sitting down with Donald Trump, his verdict would be very, very grim.
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