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Thread: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

  1. #1

    The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

    http://techcrunch.com/2016/04/25/the...llions-of-jobs

    A convoy of self-driving trucks recently drove across Europe and arrived at the Port of Rotterdam. No technology will automate away more jobs — or drive more economic efficiency — than the driverless truck.

    Shipping a full truckload from L.A. to New York costs around $4,500 today, with labor representing 75 percent of that cost. But those labor savings aren’t the only gains to be had from the adoption of driverless trucks.

    Where drivers are restricted by law from driving more than 11 hours per day without taking an 8-hour break, a driverless truck can drive nearly 24 hours per day. That means the technology would effectively double the output of the U.S. transportation network at 25 percent of the cost.

    And the savings become even more significant when you account for fuel efficiency gains. The optimal cruising speed from a fuel efficiency standpoint is around 45 miles per hour, whereas truckers who are paid by the mile drive much faster. Further fuel efficiencies will be had as the self-driving fleets adopt platooning technologies, like those from Peloton Technology, allowing trucks to draft behind one another in highway trains.

    Trucking represents a considerable portion of the cost of all the goods we buy, so consumers everywhere will experience this change as lower prices and higher standards of living.

    In addition, once the technology is mature enough to be rolled out commercially, we will also enjoy considerable safety benefits. This year alone more people will be killed in traffic accidents involving trucks than in all domestic airline crashes in the last 45 years combined. At the same time, more truck drivers were killed on the job, 835, than workers in any other occupation in the U.S.

    Even putting aside the direct safety risks, truck driving is a grueling job that young people don’t really want to do. The average age of a commercial driver is 55 (and rising every year), with projected driver shortages that will create yet more incentive to adopt driverless technology in the years to come.

    While the efficiency gains are real — too real to pass up — the technology will have tremendous adverse effects as well. There are currently more than 1.6 million Americans working as truck drivers, making it the most common job in 29 states.

    The loss of jobs representing 1 percent of the U.S. workforce will be a devastating blow to the economy. And the adverse consequences won’t end there. Gas stations, highway diners, rest stops, motels and other businesses catering to drivers will struggle to survive without them.

    The demonstration in Europe shows that driverless trucking is right around the corner. The primary remaining barriers are regulatory. We still need to create on- and off-ramps so human drivers can bring trucks to the freeways where highway autopilot can take over. We may also need dedicated lanes as slow-moving driverless trucks could be a hazard for drivers. These are big projects that can only be done with the active support of government. However, regulators will be understandably reluctant to allow technology with the potential to eliminate so many jobs.

    Yet the benefits from adopting it will be so huge that we can’t simply outlaw it. A 400 percent price-performance improvement in ground transportation networks will represent an incredible boost to human well-being. Where would we be if we had banned mechanized agriculture on the grounds that most Americans worked in farming when tractors and harvesters were introduced in the early 20th century?

    We often discuss the displacement of jobs by artificial intelligence and robots in the abstract, as something that we’ll have to eventually tackle in the far distant future. But the recent successful demonstration of the self-driving truck shows that we can’t afford to put off the conversation on how we’re going to adapt to this new reality.



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  3. #2
    That should provide a very large "proof of concept" test bed and significant improvement lab opportunity.

  4. #3
    xxxxx
    Last edited by Voluntarist; 07-25-2018 at 02:36 PM.

  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Voluntarist View Post
    LOL ... The ad at the bottom of my page is promising free CDL training to any driver that signs up, and a salary of $50k a year with a $1200 sign-on bonus

    Yep, only working 70 hrs a week, heck of a deal.

  6. #5
    Automated backing up of tractor trailers into loading dock slots, will be very impressive indeed, under varying conditions. And perhaps also a ton of fun to watch.

  7. #6
    xxxxx
    Last edited by Voluntarist; 07-25-2018 at 02:36 PM.

  8. #7
    I don't see these things using roads accessible by the public, sabotage would be 100%...

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Voluntarist View Post
    I'd think the algorithm would be simpler than that used for docking of robotic spacecraft, or aerial refueling of UAVs ... Especially since the loading dock is static.
    Aren't those maneuvers largely manually carried out currently?




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  11. #9
    I drove semi-trucks and I think that job crazy with the kind of crap drivers have to deal with. I also hate the logbook, the weigh stations, and especially the lack of truck parking.

  12. #10
    The title should read, "... and it's going to create millions of jobs"

    Yet the benefits from adopting it will be so huge that we can’t simply outlaw it. A 400 percent price-performance improvement in ground transportation networks will represent an incredible boost to human well-being. Where would we be if we had banned mechanized agriculture on the grounds that most Americans worked in farming when tractors and harvesters were introduced in the early 20th century?
    I know this is a hard concept for people to grasp. Even in these forums where people ostensibly understand Austrian economics. But when all of our goods are cheaper, we will have more disposable income to spend on things that we aren't buying now. So, in the future, you will have your products AND something else. What something? Something we don't even know we wanted yet.

    (Of course, you can expect the government to siphon off nearly 100% of the benefit we should be receiving from this.)
    "And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works." - Bastiat

    "It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere." - Voltaire

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by CaptUSA View Post
    The title should read, "... and it's going to create millions of jobs"



    I know this is a hard concept for people to grasp. Even in these forums where people ostensibly understand Austrian economics. But when all of our goods are cheaper, we will have more disposable income to spend on things that we aren't buying now. So, in the future, you will have your products AND something else. What something? Something we don't even know we wanted yet.

    (Of course, you can expect the government to siphon off nearly 100% of the benefit we should be receiving from this.)


    Automation and Robots doing all the $#@! jobs so human beings don't have to should be a good thing. It would be sad as hell if we're rooted in the model of needing a labor job for everyone to earn a paycheck. Surely there is a way to make this work in a positive way.

    Overtime, this might even bring an efficiency in the use of resources needing less automated labor in general anyway if people aren't running between home and work or travelling for work.

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by VIDEODROME View Post
    I drove semi-trucks and I think that job crazy with the kind of crap drivers have to deal with. I also hate the logbook, the weigh stations, and especially the lack of truck parking.
    I took the course and completed at the top of my class. Luckily, I never had to do it for pay. Tech contracts and assignments finally turned up, and spared me. I did learn some fun stuff. Don't want the job.

  15. #13
    xxxxx
    Last edited by Voluntarist; 07-25-2018 at 02:40 PM.

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Ronin Truth View Post
    I took the course and completed at the top of my class. Luckily, I never had to do it for pay. Tech contracts and assignments finally turned up, and spared me. I did learn some fun stuff. Don't want the job.
    Well, I'm now studying computer programming so I'm hoping I can dig up job leads in technology.

    As for trucking, I will say it's cool as hell to drive a huge semi-truck, but the job comes with to much bull$#@!.

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Voluntarist View Post
    The Russians have been doing autonomous docking of Progress supply ships since before Mir. In fact, Soyuz docks autonomously. Dragon does all maneuvering until close enough to be captured and docked by robotic arm.

    UAVs autonomously maneuver until they can be captured by manned aerial refueling aircraft (just as manned aircraft do). Latencies between aircraft and controllers preclude human control.

    UAVs became capable of autonomously refueling each other in the 2012-13 timeframe

    Newer 747s and 777s are capable of landing themselves, though I doubt it'll ever be done routinely

    Our robot overlords ... Did I say overlords - I meant protectors
    Learn something new every day. Thanks!

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by VIDEODROME View Post
    Automation and Robots doing all the $#@! jobs so human beings don't have to should be a good thing.
    up until they become self-aware!


    Skynet!
    Pfizer Macht Frei!

    Openly Straight Man, Danke, Awarded Top Rated Influencer. Community Standards Enforcer.


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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Danke View Post
    up until they become self-aware!


    Skynet!
    Or hacked. Depending on what the truck is carrying it could be a good haul. Get it? "Haul." Damn, I crack me up.

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by VIDEODROME View Post
    Well, I'm now studying computer programming so I'm hoping I can dig up job leads in technology.

    As for trucking, I will say it's cool as hell to drive a huge semi-truck, but the job comes with to much bull$#@!.
    Good luck with an IT future. That was my career, until the industry went insane in the 90's. Last I heard an IT PhD in India is going for about $10/hour, and they've got a bunch.

    The truck driving was fun, the job seemed to really suck. Just about min wage for a 70 hr./week. AND you get to pay for all of your own tickets received trying to meet the mandated schedules.
    Last edited by Ronin Truth; 04-29-2016 at 02:46 PM.

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Voluntarist View Post
    UAVs autonomously maneuver until they can be captured by manned aerial refueling aircraft (just as manned aircraft do).
    Captured? How so?



    Newer 747s and 777s are capable of landing themselves, though I doubt it'll ever be done routinely.
    Which variants/versions? And what do you mean they "are capable of landing themselves?"
    Pfizer Macht Frei!

    Openly Straight Man, Danke, Awarded Top Rated Influencer. Community Standards Enforcer.


    Quiz: Test Your "Income" Tax IQ!

    Short Income Tax Video

    The Income Tax Is An Excise, And Excise Taxes Are Privilege Taxes

    The Federalist Papers, No. 15:

    Except as to the rule of appointment, the United States have an indefinite discretion to make requisitions for men and money; but they have no authority to raise either by regulations extending to the individual citizens of America.

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Ronin Truth View Post
    Good luck with an IT future. That was my career, until the industry went insane in the 90's. Last I heard an IT PhD in India is going for about $10/hour, and they've got a bunch.

    The truck driving was fun, the job seemed to really suck. Just about min wage for a 70 hr./week. AND you get to pay for all of your own tickets received trying to meet the mandated schedules.
    I'm hoping Computer Programming is different enough from IT support. Or worst case, I might scrape by as a freelance Web Developer to get experience at first.

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by VIDEODROME View Post
    I'm hoping Computer Programming is different enough from IT support. Or worst case, I might scrape by as a freelance Web Developer to get experience at first.
    Programming, Systems Analysis and Design was my gig too. I just now lump it all together and call it IT (Information Technology). <shrug>

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Ronin Truth View Post
    Programming, Systems Analysis and Design was my gig too. I just now lump it all together and call it IT (Information Technology). <shrug>
    What kind of stuff did you program? Or what languages did you Code in?

  26. #23
    I wonder what the labor unions positions will be on something like this?
    Freedom Report

    Twitter Page


    "I am convinced that there are more threats to American liberty within the 10 mile radius of my office on Capitol Hill than there are on the rest of the globe." -- Ron Paul

  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Feelgood View Post
    I wonder what the labor unions positions will be on something like this?
    I SWAG the Teamsters will NOT be thrilled, at all about it.

    LOL!



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by VIDEODROME View Post
    What kind of stuff did you program? Or what languages did you Code in?
    Mostly business/commercial stuff and some scientific, medical systems. Mostly on big iron IBM mainframes in PL/I. Some client server in C++, Java, and Visual Basic.

    I became a Java bigot, until I discovered Python. Then I became a Python bigot. Not for pay, it's just a really cool language. I'm retired now, but still Python a bit, just for me, from time to time.

    How about you? What's yours?
    Last edited by Ronin Truth; 04-29-2016 at 06:32 PM.

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Ronin Truth View Post
    Mostly business/commercial stuff and some scientific, medical systems. Mostly on big iron IBM mainframes in PL/I. Some client server in C++, Java, and Visual Basic.

    I became a Java bigot, until I discovered Python. Then I became a Python bigot. Not for pay, it's just a really cool language. I'm retired now, but still Python a bit, just for me, from time to time.

    How about you? What's yours?
    I'm still taking classes, but so far some C#, HTML-CSS, MS SQL, and Javascript & jQuery. I'm kinda hoping actually that web stuff like Javascript and later on PHP and SQL will be what helps me find work.

    I played with Python a little bit on my own.


    Previously, I actually got an Associates Degree in Cyber Security which I think was a naive move on my part. I think Cyber Security as a field is generally not for noobies, but maybe if I get proven experience anywhere in programming I can later combine it with my previous security training. Maybe I could have a shot at being a Penetration Tester or something

  31. #27
    ..in future news,

    A convoy of self-driving trucks recently drove across Europe...
    ...stopping only to pick up migrants who "flagged it to a stop". Dozens of the refugees
    from countries unknown who could also understand our questions and speak the local
    language reported that the ride was very convenient and smooth since it zipped right
    through all the usual check points along the way. "It's easy to get them to stop and
    pick up more riders, but it gets tricky when you want to jump off before a programmed
    stop because those things go fast!"


    That was only a very tiny glitch in the software patch that will be fixed with the new
    open source release of a "Dial-a-Ride curbside human trafficking pickup - Pay_n_Go"
    package option that also provides a new passport for each country, as required.
    Last edited by FindLiberty; 04-29-2016 at 07:01 PM.

  32. #28
    Horseless carriage coming- and it is going to replace millions of jobs.


  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by VIDEODROME View Post
    I'm still taking classes, but so far some C#, HTML-CSS, MS SQL, and Javascript & jQuery. I'm kinda hoping actually that web stuff like Javascript and later on PHP and SQL will be what helps me find work.

    I played with Python a little bit on my own.


    Previously, I actually got an Associates Degree in Cyber Security which I think was a naive move on my part. I think Cyber Security as a field is generally not for noobies, but maybe if I get proven experience anywhere in programming I can later combine it with my previous security training. Maybe I could have a shot at being a Penetration Tester or something
    You would do well to stay close to python. Security is in the same wheelhouse as systems admin, where you have to work with a lot of kernel space stuff via shell scripting. If you notice, a lot of the newer OS distros are moving towards python as a scripting language in places where bash, c shell, scripts used to be.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  34. #30
    Maybe being a former trucker, I'll get to help program the driverless truck systems.

    As for Python, I'm not that worried about it because from what I've seen it's generally much simpler than other languages I'm using. If anything, I wish I found some better IDEs for it that Intellisense. I think though if I get proficient at Javascript it shouldn't be hard at all to pick up Python.

    It's interesting you mention the Kernel though. I'm not sure if working in the Linux Kernel itself is a possible career path or just a crazy open source project people pad their resumes with. I am an avid user of Linux myself which is also partly why I like Web Development since it is easy to do from any OS.
    Last edited by VIDEODROME; 04-29-2016 at 07:27 PM.

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