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Thread: Peter Schiff (Inflation) Debates Harry Dent (Deflation)

  1. #1

    Peter Schiff (Inflation) Debates Harry Dent (Deflation)

    Peter Schiff vs Harry Dent:



    Last edited by openfire; 03-26-2016 at 02:33 PM.



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  3. #2
    Peter still calling for hyperinflation from all the QE which the Fed "will never be able to end"?

    (don't have half an hour to watch it)
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 03-26-2016 at 03:53 PM.

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Peter still calling for hyperinflation from all the QE which the Fed "will never be able to end"?

    (don't have half an hour to watch it)
    The best part was Alex Jones telling your boy Harry Dent to calm down and stop yelling so much


    11:50 and 19:40
    Last edited by dannno; 03-26-2016 at 05:53 PM.
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  5. #4
    PM's can do well in a deflation or inflation. They'll devalue the dollar
    Last edited by kfarnan; 03-26-2016 at 06:32 PM.

  6. #5
    Zippy still not reading (in this case watching) the OP while pontificating on it's content. :roll eyes:

    If the COL is up and your income is flat or down, what do you call that? Of course, you could just read Zippy's roving blog posts on this forum and believe that there is no inflation, job creation is at record levels, unemployment has been erased and the economy is #1 with a bullet.

    Schiff says that inflation will continue to accelerate because the FED will attempt to print us out of collapse, which collapse will include the demise of the USD, so buy gold and Dent says that, although he agrees that the FED will attempt to print, there is no amount of money the world's CBs can print to prevent deflationary depression, so gold, which he believes is just a commodity like corn, will deflate with every other commodity.

    Zippy says the terrorists hate us because we're beautiful.

    Cast your votes.

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Peter still calling for hyperinflation from all the QE which the Fed "will never be able to end"?

    (don't have half an hour to watch it)
    Are you suggesting that deflation is the more likely scenario?


  8. #7
    Chester Copperpot
    Member

    we could use some deflation..

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by openfire View Post
    Are you suggesting that deflation is the more likely scenario?
    Because we are not at one extreme we must be facing the opposite extreme? We are in a global slow growth era. Slow growing population which is contributing to slow growing economy (along with a slower pace of technological improvements which slows that growth too) and slow growth in wages and price inflation.



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  11. #9
    And the winner is "flation".

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by openfire View Post
    Are you suggesting that deflation is the more likely scenario?

    100% agree! That's the point I always try to make but it looks better on a chart. Also we were on a gold standard until 1970 so chop off the first half of the chart. Then add all the other fiat currencies in history and see what it looks like. 99.99% of the time fiat currencies lose value. Why? Because the supply gets increased.

    The whole idea that somehow printing money makes it more valuable is idiotic. Yet people still think all this current printing is going to lead to a stronger currency????

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    100% agree! That's the point I always try to make but it looks better on a chart. Also we were on a gold standard until 1970 so chop off the first half of the chart. Then add all the other fiat currencies in history and see what it looks like. 99.99% of the time fiat currencies lose value. Why? Because the supply gets increased.

    The whole idea that somehow printing money makes it more valuable is idiotic. Yet people still think all this current printing is going to lead to a stronger currency????
    So we should ignore the fact that the dollar lost value even under a gold standard? I thought a gold standard was supposed to prevent that?

    (chart also ignores that people's purchasing power has increased dramatically since the start of it).

    Is there a chart of any money which has GAINED in value over time? Gold backed or otherwise? Any economic system or money system with zero inflation where the value of money stayed the same over time?
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 03-30-2016 at 12:47 PM.

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Chester Copperpot View Post
    we could use some deflation..
    Beware the almost always inevitable downward spirals, postponing purchases until prices bottom.

  15. #13
    Which is why deflation is associated with recessions. Deflation is usually because demand drops sharply. Then producers cut labor which means people lose jobs and have less money. Since they have less money, they spend less so demand falls more. Then producers cut labor....

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    So we should ignore the fact that the dollar lost value even under a gold standard? I thought a gold standard was supposed to prevent that?

    (chart also ignores that people's purchasing power has increased dramatically since the start of it).

    Is there a chart of any money which has GAINED in value over time? Gold backed or otherwise? Any economic system or money system with zero inflation where the value of money stayed the same over time?
    Real money like gold and silver have gained in value, but I'm not aware of any fiat currencies that have. That's the point.

  17. #15
    Weren't we using gold or silver during much of the chart posted earlier?

  18. #16



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Weren't we using gold or silver during much of the chart posted earlier?
    No, it was gold-backed not actual gold. They were still able to print although they were more constrained than they are now. That's why they had to devalue the trade in amount from $20 to $35.

  21. #18
    They're both right, its just a matter of time to see what the Fed does long term
    Carthago Delenda Est

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    So we should ignore the fact that the dollar lost value even under a gold standard? I thought a gold standard was supposed to prevent that?
    No you didn't. You just pretend to think that for propaganda purposes. The fact is, it has been pointed out to you time and time again that the value of the dollar fluctuated up and down when it was gold, and has only fallen since it became pure fiat. And that wages have in no way kept pace.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    (chart also ignores that people's purchasing power has increased dramatically since the start of it).
    Technological progress always leads to a higher standard of living. The thing is, the greater wealth of society due to the amazing technological progress of the last century has mostly gone to the richest, while the gains of the working class have been comparatively flat. Flat enough that those things which technology affects less, like food and housing, are eating our lunches, while our much vaunted 'greater purchasing power' mostly translates into an ability to buy toys that weren't available at any price--before they were invented.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Is there a chart of any money which has GAINED in value over time? Gold backed or otherwise? Any economic system or money system with zero inflation where the value of money stayed the same over time?
    Good held value in the long term. It fluctuated down in value, but then rebounded. That alone makes it far, far more stable than anything the Fed ever printed.

    Quote Originally Posted by ArrestPoliticians View Post
    They're both right, its just a matter of time to see what the Fed does long term
    We know what the Fed does long term. The FRN has the spending power that the nickel had in 1913. Soon it will have the spending power the penny had in 1913. And then it will get worse. And our wages will not keep pace.

    Those who refuse to learn from history must get screwed the same way his parents and his grandparents did, waiting to see history repeat itself. Those who learn from history know exactly where this thing is going.
    Last edited by acptulsa; 04-01-2016 at 07:28 AM.
    "Stupidity got us into this mess. Why can't it get us out?"--Will Rogers

    "All I know is what I read in the newspapers, and that's an alibi for my ignorance."--Will Rogers

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by acptulsa View Post

    We know what the Fed does long term. The FRN has the spending power that the nickel had in 1913. Soon it will have the spending power the penny had in 1913. And then it will get worse. And our wages will not keep pace.

    Those who refuse to learn from history must get screwed the same way his parents and his grandparents did, waiting to see history repeat itself. Those who learn from history know exactly where this thing is going.
    You cut a lot of corners to avoid some of the complexities of the issue, IMO
    Carthago Delenda Est

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by ArrestPoliticians View Post
    You cut a lot of corners to avoid some of the complexities of the issue, IMO
    You go to great lengths to discourage people from learning form history. Which is hardly surprising when one is shamelessly promoting a candidate with no history of supporting liberty or being a friend of the working man, IMO.

    No amount of complexity can hide the facts that fiat was sold to our great-grandfathers as a tool for preventing recessions, but it has not done that, and that the value of the dollar has stopped fluctuating up and down, and has dropped ever since--at a pace wages cannot and have not been able to rise fast enough to counter.

    And the evidence is clear that the wealth is now held in far fewer hands than it was then. What good is it to grumble about Bernie supporters but defending the policies which created them? If so-called conservatives can defend legally-mandated money which shrinks like wool in a hot dryer, no wonder people are willing to give socialism a chance.
    Last edited by acptulsa; 04-01-2016 at 07:43 AM.
    "Stupidity got us into this mess. Why can't it get us out?"--Will Rogers

    "All I know is what I read in the newspapers, and that's an alibi for my ignorance."--Will Rogers

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by acptulsa View Post
    You go to great lengths to discourage people from learning form history. Which is hardly surprising when one is shamelessly promoting a candidate with no history of supporting liberty or being a friend of the working man, IMO.

    There's history on both sides of the issue...which you seem unaware of.

    No amount of complexity can hide the facts that fiat was sold to our great-grandfathers as a tool for preventing recessions, but it has not done that, and that the value of the dollar has stopped fluctuating up and down, and has dropped ever since--at a pace wages cannot and have not been able to rise fast enough to counter.

    Yes, but thats not the debate.

    And the evidence is clear that the wealth is now held in far fewer hands than it was then. What good is it to grumble about Bernie supporters but defending the policies which created them? If so-called conservatives can defend legally-mandated money which shrinks like wool in a hot dryer, no wonder people are willing to give socialism a chance.

    Who here is defending fiat money? I obviously don't mean both Schiff and Dent are right about Gold as money lol, I am talking about the inflation/deflation debate.
    So much red K from you crybaby types lol....
    Carthago Delenda Est

  26. #23
    What history are you charging that I don't know? The Cross of Gold Speech? What?

    If inflation did not redistribute wealth and concentrate it in the hands of the few and powerful, there wouldn't be a debate about it at all.

    You say gold and fiat are irrelevant, or at best parenthetical, to the inflation/deflation debate, but the glaring fact remains that there is no deflation with fiat money. So, tell us again how the thing that eliminates deflation is parenthetical to deflation itself. We could all use a good laugh this morning.

    Quote Originally Posted by ArrestPoliticians View Post
    So much red K from you crybaby types lol....
    You publicly cry about it, pretend to laugh as you cry, and accuse everyone but yourself of being a crybaby. You seem to be a mite confused...
    "Stupidity got us into this mess. Why can't it get us out?"--Will Rogers

    "All I know is what I read in the newspapers, and that's an alibi for my ignorance."--Will Rogers

  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by acptulsa View Post
    What history are you charging that I don't know? The Cross of Gold Speech? What?

    If inflation did not redistribute wealth and concentrate it in the hands of the few and powerful, there wouldn't be a debate about it at all.

    You say gold and fiat are irrelevant, or at best parenthetical, to the inflation/deflation debate, but the glaring fact remains that there is no deflation with fiat money. So, tell us again how the thing that eliminates deflation is parenthetical to deflation itself. We could all use a good laugh this morning.



    You publicly cry about it, pretend to laugh as you cry, and accuse everyone but yourself of being a crybaby. You seem to be a mite confused...
    You really did completely miss the point
    Carthago Delenda Est



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by ArrestPoliticians View Post
    You really did completely miss the point
    ....I'm sorry, did you make a point in this thread?
    If you did, I missed it too.
    There are no crimes against people.
    There are only crimes against the state.
    And the state will never, ever choose to hold accountable its agents, because a thing can not commit a crime against itself.

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by fisharmor View Post
    ....I'm sorry, did you make a point in this thread?
    If you did, I missed it too.
    The video?
    Carthago Delenda Est

  31. #27
    Just finished, and I'm not sure who is supposed to be knocking out whom.

    This is my first time hearing Dent's argument about debts collapsing equals less money chasing the same goods equals DEFLATION.

    His interpretation is (I guess) that so much of that has happened that even though we've been inflating the money supply at record levels, there hasn't been any inflation.

    Is there a response to this?

    Personally, I think the idea that there has been no inflation is indefensible. You only need to compare prices from 2008 to prices today. Or the explosion in the number of thrift stores, Aldis, and other places where you can get the same things at 2008 prices only used or with worse service.
    There are no crimes against people.
    There are only crimes against the state.
    And the state will never, ever choose to hold accountable its agents, because a thing can not commit a crime against itself.

  32. #28
    His interpretation is (I guess) that so much of that has happened that even though we've been inflating the money supply at record levels, there hasn't been any inflation.

    Is there a response to this?

    Inflation: An expansion of the money supply:
    Rising prices: A symptom of inflation

    Rising prices are correlated with inflation; however inflation is by definition expansion of the money supply; which devalues the unit of account is worth less than it otherwise would be.

    Deflation is a contraction of the money supply: falling prices are associated with deflation, among many other positive factors such as technological improvements, innovations, and improved allocative efficiency inside the market.Falling prices means that you have more purchasing power, and thereby more wealthy.

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by XxNeXuSxX View Post
    Deflation is a contraction of the money supply
    Right, I get that it's an increase or decrease in the actual number of dollars in circulation.
    What Dent appears to be saying, is that writing off debts is de facto decreasing the money supply.
    A borrower borrowed money and didn't pay it back, the lender wrote it off, and it is therefore removed from the money supply.
    He appears to think that so much of this has happened that it has balanced out.

    And now that I type it out again, it occurs to me that the answer is that we don't know the origin of the money that was originally lent. In all likelihood, it was money created through inflationary fractional reserve banking to begin with, so removing it from the economy when the debt is written off is removing money that was inflated in the past, and so it's not really offsetting the newly inflated money.
    There are no crimes against people.
    There are only crimes against the state.
    And the state will never, ever choose to hold accountable its agents, because a thing can not commit a crime against itself.

  34. #30
    Technological progress always leads to a higher standard of living. The thing is, the greater wealth of society due to the amazing technological progress of the last century has mostly gone to the richest, while the gains of the working class have been comparatively flat. Flat enough that those things which technology affects less, like food and housing, are eating our lunches, while our much vaunted 'greater purchasing power' mostly translates into an ability to buy toys that weren't available at any price--before they were invented.
    As a percent of disposable income, food prices have fallen significantly over time. We used to spend about 30% of incomes on food while today it is about 11 percent- and we have a vastly larger selection of food items to choose from.



    Housing has changed less (chart is percent of disposable income spent on housing).




    And the evidence is clear that the wealth is now held in far fewer hands than it was then. What good is it to grumble about Bernie supporters but defending the policies which created them? If so-called conservatives can defend legally-mandated money which shrinks like wool in a hot dryer, no wonder people are willing to give socialism a chance.
    Is that evidence clear- as compared to say 100 years ago before fiat? But that is not caused by monetary policy or using fiat or gold for currency or price inflation or deflation. That is the history of mankind. But if you are concerned about that, socialism might be something you can try. (It won't get rid of it either- kinda like cockroaches).

    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 04-01-2016 at 07:43 PM.

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