Libertarian Gary Johnson in double digits in race against Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump: poll

[RonPaulGeorge&Ringo]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...s-race-agains/

"Libertarian Gary Johnson in double digits in race against Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump: poll


"Libertarian presidential hopeful Gary Johnson, possibly benefitting from dissatisfaction with the two major parties’ front-runners, is in double digits in a potential three-way race, according to a poll released Thursday.

"In a three-way contest, Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton was at 42 percent, GOP front-runner Donald Trump was at 34 percent, and Mr. Johnson, who is seeking the Libertarian Party’s nomination, was at 11 percent, according to the Monmouth University poll."

{CONTINUED}

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/322...2a6e5f8e61.pdf

[openfire]

I wonder if he'll be included in the debates?

[Bern]

So you're saying there's a chance? /Lloyd Christmas

[r3volution 3.0]

Fantastic!

I was trying to find a point of reference from 2012 (to see how the final result compared to the polls), to no avail.

Anyone know of any national polls Johnson v Romney v Obama from 2012?

[Bern]

...
Anyone know of any national polls Johnson v Romney v Obama from 2012?

http://wwwww.realclearpolitics.com/e...nson-3269.html

[r3volution 3.0]

http://wwwww.realclearpolitics.com/e...nson-3269.html

Thanks

So, last cycle, the best Johnson did in any three-way poll was 6%, with the average being 3.6%.

...which makes 11% pretty impressive.

[Influenza]

I doubt there's much hope that TPTB will allow a 3 person debate with a LP candidate, but I guess a ruckus could be raised if he were to continue polling highly

[misterx]

It's a shame the open borders lunatics have taken over the Libertarian Party. Even if he won he'd make sure that he'd be the last non-Democrat in the White House.

[r3volution 3.0]

It's a shame the open borders lunatics have taken over the Libertarian Party.

Free immigration is and has always been the libertarian position.

[misterx]

Free immigration is and has always been the libertarian position.

Many Libertarians would disagree.

[William Tell]

Thanks

So, last cycle, the best Johnson did in any three-way poll was 6%, with the average being 3.6%.

...which makes 11% pretty impressive.

But Johnson ended up with less than 1 percent.

[presence]

funny

9% have favorable opinion of Gary... 76% have never heard of him... but 11% will vote for him.

[Influenza]

funny

9% have favorable opinion of Gary... 76% have never heard of him... but 11% will vote for him.

It probably has a lot more to do with distaste for the two front-runners rather than people actually wanting GJ to be president

[r3volution 3.0]

But Johnson ended up with less than 1 percent.

Right

He underperformed the polls then, and he'll probably underperform them again.

All I'm saying is that, since he's polling higher this time (about twice as high), he should do better.

He polled 6% and ended up with 1% last time; now he's polling 11%, so maybe be ends up with 2%.

[afwjam]

This is great news. Thinking about the Gary Johnson thing, he might be the liberal appealing Libertarian we need. I was never to hot on his monatary policy knowledge or his abortion stance, but let's be pragmatic... When Hillary gets the democratic nomination there will be a lot of unhappy liberals, the kinds we had supporting Ron before. When trump wins the nomination there will be a lot of unhappy conservitives, the kind we had supporting Ron before. Gary Johnson might be able to pull together a coalition from these folks. Worst case scenario Hillary wins like she was going to against trump. Best case Gary Johnson pulls out an upset win if trump and Hillary completely self destructs. Almost best case and a huge improvement over the way things have been going, Gary gets more then 5% maybe even 15-20% and legitimizes libertarians and third party's. I'm willing to cede my purity on monatary policy understanding and abortion for a coalition that really busts up the two party system, unlike trump who is just more of the same.

[misterx]

Right

He underperformed the polls then, and he'll probably underperform them again.

All I'm saying is that, since he's polling higher this time (about twice as high), he should do better.

He polled 6% and ended up with 1% last time; now he's polling 11%, so maybe be ends up with 2%.

I would expect him to perform closer to his poll numbers the higher he polls. Once you start polling in double digits that's when people are more likely to feel like they aren't throwing their vote away by voting for you. It's one thing to tell someone on the phone that you will vote one way, but when that candidate is only polling 6% there is very little reason to actually pick him in the ballot box.

[Bern]

But Johnson ended up with less than 1 percent.

If he's allowed on the stage in a debate with the D & R, he will have the opportunity to do much, much better.

[afwjam]

All aboard the Gary Johnson train, Mcafee for VP! How's that for presidential security?

[r3volution 3.0]

I would expect him to perform closer to his poll numbers the higher he polls. Once you start polling in double digits that's when people are more likely to feel like they aren't throwing their vote away by voting for you. It's one thing to tell someone on the phone that you will vote one way, but when that candidate is only polling 6% there is very little reason to actually pick him in the ballot box.

Good point

[Antischism]

Many Libertarians paleocons and right-wingers masquerading as "libertarians" like Lew Rockwell would disagree.

Fixed that for you. Open borders is de facto libertarianism.

[Chester Copperpot]

well gary Johnson being in the race might make things interesting.. if he has a good shot of winning would be an alternative to trump

[William Tell]

Right

He underperformed the polls then, and he'll probably underperform them again.

All I'm saying is that, since he's polling higher this time (about twice as high), he should do better.

He polled 6% and ended up with 1% last time; now he's polling 11%, so maybe be ends up with 2%.

Yes, exactly what I was thinking. 2-3% may be reachable for the LP. But poll numbers usually let 3rd party candidates come election day. Virgil Goode was polling around 10% in Virginia for the 2012 presidential election as the CP nominee. He did horribly on election day.

If he's allowed on the stage in a debate with the D & R, he will have the opportunity to do much, much better.

Yes, making the debates would make a world of difference.

[Michael Landon]

I'm voting for the Libertarian regardless of who gets the Republican or Democrat nomination.

- ML

[jmdrake]

And of course if this happens and Hillary wins the idiots in the GOP will blame the LP for their loss rather than the fact that they picked a crappy candidate.

[Origanalist]

And of course if this happens and Hillary wins the idiots in the GOP will blame the LP for their loss rather than the fact that they picked a crappy candidate.

That is a given, but do you care?

[69360]

I don't believe that. Sure I think he will do the best the LP has ever done in a Trump Clinton race. I would think even 3-5 would be possible. I will probably end up voting for Johnson again unless the GOP finds a way to rob Trump and has a real nominee.

[r3volution 3.0]

And of course if this happens and Hillary wins the idiots in the GOP will blame the LP for their loss rather than the fact that they picked a crappy candidate.

I think Trump's likely to lose by more votes than the LP carries.

e.g.

Clinton 52%
Trump 46%
Johnson 2%

[Libertas Aut Mortis]

Gary Johnson sucks, he embodies everything that I dislike about the Libertarian Party.

[misterx]

Fixed that for you. Open borders is de facto libertarianism.

You're only a real Libertarian if you agree with the resident communist, Antischism

[r3volution 3.0]

You're only a real Libertarian if you agree with the resident communist, Antischism

Restricting immigration requires aggression, hence libertarians oppose it.