US to Be Self-Sufficient by 2019 As Crude Oil Production Rises

[Zippyjuan]

http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/...duction-rises/

I don't buy the prediction. Oil companies are already cutting production and workers as the low price of oil makes shale oil too expensive to go for now. It was profitable at $80- $100 a barrel but not at $30 we see today.

U.S. oil production for 2015 from shale formations is expected to reach 5.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. By 2020 the shale total is forecast to reach 8 million barrels a day. By sometime around 2019, the United States is expected to be self-sufficient in liquids production.

The compound annual growth rate production from shale plays calls for a 2015 to 2017 increase of just 2%, but that rises to 12% for the period to 2020. From total hydrocarbon production of around 15.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2015, U.S. production is expected to grow to around 22 million barrels a day.

The data and conclusions were reported Tuesday by industry research firm Rystad Energy. The data are reported only for North American shale plays.

To reach these levels, Rystad forecasts that investment in shale plays will rise from less than $100 billion in 2015 to reach about $170 billion in 2020. That is about equal to the investment level in 2014. The researchers expect 2016 investment to fall by about 35% to around $60 billion before beginning to rise again in 2017.

More at link.

[Chester Copperpot]

http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/...duction-rises/

I don't buy the prediction. Oil companies are already cutting production and workers as the low price of oil makes shale oil too expensive to go for now. It was profitable at $80- $100 a barrel but not at $30 we see today.



More at link.

Seems the break even price on shale is now $35/bbl maybe lower.. guess we'll find out when production slows

[Zippyjuan]

Production is already declining. Drops are not large yet but are starting to pick up steam.

http://peakoilbarrel.com/eia-says-sh...es-to-decline/





http://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurbe...0b3994bb5d5739

OPEC Production Cut Unlikely Until U.S. Oil Output Falls Another Million Barrels Per Day

[Anti Federalist]

You are correct not to "buy" this prediction.

US offshore production is also expensive and not going to grow at $30 +/-.