Call For Observations: Is "It" Beginning?

[devil21]

It's well underway when this is a big mainstream song.

[Occam's Banana]

Recessions happened long before Keynes came along. In fact, there is no economic theory or monetary or banking or governmental system which has been able to avoid them.

There are, however, economic theories [1] and monetary [2], banking [3] and governmental [4] systems that actively make them much more likely to happen (and make them worse than they would have been when they do happen).

[1] such as Keynesianism
[2] such as unsound fiat currencies and artificial credit expansions
[3] such as cartelized "central" banking
[4] such as democratic "guns and butter" warfare-welfare states

[Occam's Banana]

Eventually we will have another recession and they will all be "I told you so!" even though they told us so every year and it didn't happen.

And eventually, a man who jumps off the top of a tall building will go splat, even though he says "so far, so good" every time he passes a floor and it didn't happen.

[LibForestPaul]

It began 4-6 years ago. When every parent I know was pushing their children toward teacher, police, or some government job. When Detroit went "bankrupt". When college loans went into some bizarre territory. When new families had to move into old families home because home prices were no longer an option for new families. When government medical scheme ascended over the mundanes.

[Intoxiklown]

Where I live (southern Alabama) we're not seeing these things. I don't know much about industries in West Virginia, but here there is STRONG agricultural due to it being the "peanut capital of the world" and national chicken processing plants. Those plants are cause of secondary effects, meaning people with land get private and government contracts (and initial financing) to have chicken houses. There is also a large cotton market, but that is mainly on the season rotations from the peanut farms.

Then you have the large aviation sector, both private as well as government through Ft. Rucker (vast majority of military helicopter pilots learn to fly here). Industrial is decent, with main claim to fame being Michelin plant. Some smaller manufacturer businesses, and small machine job shops. Huge medical community, and DO school for doctors. Also have Troy campuses, which have some of the best nursing programs in the nation.

The unemployment rate is around 6%, but honestly, it is not due to lack of jobs, just non-participation within the work force. Dothan is growing at a crazy fast rate. It's been my experience though that as economies farther north decline, it spurs growth down south. With a lower cost of living and small work union presence, many companies relocate here.

What industry is the "life blood" of where you live? Is it possible something happened within it that could have broad effects, rippling out? LOL...don't get me wrong, I'm not painting a pretty picture of national economic strength. Just saying localized rise and decline won't always be directly related to a larger stage (not that I don't think you know this).

[otherone]

And eventually, a man who jumps off the top of a tall building will go splat, even though he says "so far, so good" every time he passes a floor and it didn't happen.

It's gotten to the point where one can't tell the difference between a raw frog and a boiled one.