OpinionSavvy Iowa poll 1/29-1/30 - Rand 8.6%

[Crashland]

OpinionSavvy appears to be a legit polling company, although not long established

As reported by Newsmax:
http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/trum.../31/id/712079/

Trump 20.1%
Cruz 19.4%
Rubio 18.6%
Carson 9.0%
Paul 8.6%
Bush 4.9%
Huckabee 4.4%
Kasich 4.0%
Fiorina 3.8%
Christie 3.0%
Undecided 2.2%
Santorum 2.1%


Sample size is 887 and margin of error = 3.2%
Release: http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/01/31/2851/
Polling methodology and crosstabs: http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/u...wa-1.30.15.pdf

[MarcusI]

1st place for Paul in that poll amongst 18-29 year olds, almost 1st amongst 30-44 year old, ridiculously low above that age. Lets hope this year there will be a massive youth turnout....

[groverblue]

Man, I hope we crush it tomorrow and come in first with a 5%+ lead.

[Crashland]

This poll I think will be closer to the actual results. If Rand can finish above Carson, or break into double digits then he will have some momentum. Anything better than that would be quite a miracle but let's wait and see! Come on college students!

[laissez faire]

Excellent find, great upward movement for Rand. I don't see the firm here...
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interacti...lster-ratings/

..but it appears to be a very comprehensive study.

Thanks.

[MCJ62]

I'm still baffled by Carson's support.

[MarcusI]

I'm still baffled by Carson's support.

Considering all the other candidates, I'm more baffled that they have support at all.... Carson at least seems to be a nice person.

[Rudeman]

Biggest key in the poll.

via landline Rand got 1.7%
via mobile Rand got 26.5%


even for 2nd choice:
via landline Rand got 5.8%
via mobile Rand got 17.6%

[Crashland]

Also interesting - 31.6% of Rand Paul supporters chose Rand Paul as their second choice, the highest percentage of any candidate where they picked the same person :-P

[Sentinelrv]

How much weight did they give to mobile users in this poll? If it's small then Rand could be doing even better in reality.

[Crashland]

Massive age gap. In this poll, 92% of Rand's supporters are under age 45.

[hells_unicorn]

Massive age gap. In this poll, 92% of Rand's supporters are under age 45.

That's about the cut-off point for people who don't get their information spoon-fed to them by talk radio and the idiot box. My father uses the internet occasionally, but never for his news, he's always onto some dope on talk radio or listening to what Fox News has to say.

Biggest key in the poll.

via landline Rand got 1.7%
via mobile Rand got 26.5%


even for 2nd choice:
via landline Rand got 5.8%
via mobile Rand got 17.6%

Most landline people get their news from television or radio, I'm actually surprised that Rand's numbers for 2nd choice via landline were that high. It's interesting to note that this poll was conducted prior to Cruz's blunder with that mailer, so we may end up with even better numbers and Cruz will probably be hurting more.

[Dianne]

Man, I hope we crush it tomorrow and come in first with a 5%+ lead.

Me too, but the weather not going to be worth a $#@!.. Let's hope the young people get out.

[CPUd]

[CPUd]

[SovereignMN]

Also interesting is this poll threw out all repondents that will "probably" attend or didn't know for certain where their caucus was. For the latter, I could see a lot of students being thrown out of the sample.

[ds21089]

I dont get the youth appeal to Rubio..

[hells_unicorn]

On the topic of this poll:

I'm not familiar with this polling company, but NewsMax is a trusted name in GOP circles and this polling company seems to be doing their homework on how to properly get a sample with a reasonable margin of error. The interesting thing here is that Trump, Cruz and Rubio are all in a statistical tie for 1st place, which means that Trump's lead in other polling data in Iowa has been largely fictitious.

Whether or not Rand comes in 4th place or higher will largely depend on turnout if these numbers have any accuracy, given that they sampled people over 45 to a greater number by 20%, which is less of a discrepancy than the other polls but would not show a massive youth turnout for Rand. It's also interesting to note that Trump's publicity stunt at the last debate didn't go over well in Iowa given that most of the people sampled didn't watch it.

[alucard13mm]

Wow looks like Rand is within strikin distance to get top 3

[Brett85]

I really have no idea what's going to happen at this point. I'm just ready for tomorrow night to finally get here.

[CPUd]

[eleganz]

Now we see why Rand is so damn confident and that his campaign is setting the expectation for possibly winning the caucus, that is a very large expectation to set.

Keep making calls! Calls is what identified all those potential supporters and calls is what will turn them out to vote.

Stop hoping, start calling!

[puppetmaster]

trump paul 1 and 2.....rubio 3? my prediction....but i hope for a number 1 for paul!!

[Dianne]

Man, if we could just take out Rubio tomorrow night. Rand come in at #3, whooooooooooooohooooooooooooo..... Trump/Cruz/Paul ... That's what I realistically hope for tomorrow night. Rand can take Cruz out, easily after that.

[rich34]

Well if this is correct then what a couple people were saying earlier about Rand being at 9% on the last day of the dmr poll could be accurate. Add in the fact that there was no info/crosstabs released from the dmr poll and it could be highly likely Rand is trending upward going into the caucus. I'd also guess that the pollsters are erring on the side of caution when it comes to young people and cell phone users. This also goes into rand's favor as his current numbers could be at 10%. With a moe of 3% this should put his numbers at anywhere from 7 to 13 percent. Most likely on the top side of that margin of error.

[Crashland]

Hoping for a Cruz collapse more than anything. Rand stands to gain from it if it happens

[Rudeman]

Man, if we could just take out Rubio tomorrow night. Rand come in at #3, whooooooooooooohooooooooooooo..... Trump/Cruz/Paul ... That's what I realistically hope for tomorrow night. Rand can take Cruz out, easily after that.

I'd rather Rand out perform Cruz. If the top 3 was Rand/Trump/Rubio that would be fine because then Rubio is likely the go to establishment/moderate for NH.

If it's Rand/Trump/Cruz, then you're still going to get an establishment/moderate out of NH, which could be Rubio, Bush, Kasich or Christie.

[eleganz]

Rand finishing strong in Iowa would be a major surprise upset.

How can Cruz be so dumb to drop the ball at the very last second.

[Dianne]

I'd rather Rand out perform Cruz. If the top 3 was Rand/Trump/Rubio that would be fine because then Rubio is likely the go to establishment/moderate for NH.

If it's Rand/Trump/Cruz, then you're still going to get an establishment/moderate out of NH, which could be Rubio, Bush, Kasich or Christie.

I would prefer that too, but I'm trying to be realistic. If we can get Rand into third slot, I will climb Mount Everest next week. Think of it as a horse race. Always keep your horse in reach, but never bring him to the front too quickly. Have him well positioned in the back stretch.

[Dianne]

Rand finishing strong in Iowa would be a major surprise upset.

How can Cruz be so dumb to drop the ball at the very last second.

Last day of the month. He is waiting for his next Goldman Sachs check.