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Thread: 'Best Pollster in Politics' releases final Iowa poll tonight at 5:30.

  1. 01-30-2016, 11:19 AM #1
    laissez faire
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    'Best Pollster in Politics' releases final Iowa poll tonight at 5:30.

    538's recent feature on the Des Moines Register's Ann Selzer.
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/selzer/

    The paper's announcement of the final poll results to come later today.
    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/sto...rday/79411100/

    Rand was at 5% in their poll of 2 weeks ago. The last 5 polls he has been under 5%
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ucus-3194.html

    Let's see what DM says tonight.
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  3. 01-30-2016, 11:31 AM #2
    RDM
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    Will probably show a 2% bump, but their MOE will cover their ass in case of Iowa surprise.
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  4. 01-30-2016, 11:32 AM #3
    Dianne
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    Hopefully he got a bounce off of the debate.
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  5. 01-30-2016, 11:35 AM #4
    kbs021
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    If we do get a bump, be prepared to share the word very hard.
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  6. 01-30-2016, 11:54 AM #5
    mit26chell
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    Rubio will have surged to 25%, Rand back down to 2. LOL. We all know it's a joke anyway
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  7. 01-30-2016, 12:09 PM #6
    clint4liberty
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    If the phone from home program works then the polls are dead wrong. We can only fund gotv efforts all on fronts to motivate people likely or wanting to caucus for Rand Paul. I do not care about polls only encouraging voters to join us as the only real option for President.
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  8. 01-30-2016, 12:28 PM #7
    eleganz
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    Quote Originally Posted by mit26chell View Post
    Rubio will have surged to 25%, Rand back down to 2. LOL. We all know it's a joke anyway

    Rubio surge is one of the best scenarios for Rand.
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  9. 01-30-2016, 12:58 PM #8
    Sentinelrv
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    Didn't the DMR endorse Rubio?
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  11. 01-30-2016, 01:02 PM #9
    CPUd
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    Is she the one who was only polling 5% of Ron 2012 voters?
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul
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  12. 01-30-2016, 01:42 PM #10
    ds21089
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    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    Rubio surge is one of the best scenarios for Rand.
    Not if it pushes him to 4th (which I doubt will happen unless the voting is rigged).
    "In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." - George Orwell
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  13. 01-30-2016, 04:34 PM #11
    rich34
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    Any numbers released yet?
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  14. 01-30-2016, 04:36 PM #12
    01000110
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    Quote Originally Posted by rich34 View Post
    Any numbers released yet?
    5:30 CT maybe?
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  15. 01-30-2016, 04:38 PM #13
    CPUd
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    It is projecting based on a 284K turnout...I think that is for both parties.

    14% are registered Republicans.
    Last edited by CPUd; 01-30-2016 at 04:41 PM.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul
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  16. 01-30-2016, 04:39 PM #14
    rich34
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    Quote Originally Posted by 01000110 View Post
    5:30 CT maybe?
    My bad, I'd say you're right.
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  17. 01-30-2016, 04:40 PM #15
    Patrick Henry
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    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    It is projecting 284K turnout...
    Yikes
    "I am commonly opposed to those who modestly assume the rank of champions of liberty, and make a very patriotic noise about the people. It is the stale artifice which has duped the world a thousand times, and yet, though detected, it is still successful."

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  18. 01-30-2016, 04:43 PM #16
    CPUd
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    The 284K active voters is the same model they used for the last DMR poll. The sample is only 14% registered GOP
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul
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  20. 01-30-2016, 04:49 PM #17
    CPUd
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    Full results will be posted 5:45PM, assuming Central time, because Iowa.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul
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  21. 01-30-2016, 04:49 PM #18
    unknown
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    I'm refreshing the page every minute...
    "An idea whose time has come cannot be stopped by any army or any government" - Ron Paul.

    "To learn who rules over you simply find out who you arent allowed to criticize."
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  22. 01-30-2016, 04:53 PM #19
    nikcers
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    They are still taking bids, and then they have to count all their money
    Rand Paul: Should we provide care and shelter to immigrants at the border or should we be paying for clown shows and a traveling circus?
    Rand Paul: Risk is this really the best we can do? Sometimes I wonder if we deserve the government we get.
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  23. 01-30-2016, 04:54 PM #20
    JRS
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    Quote Originally Posted by unknown View Post
    I'm refreshing the page every minute...
    lol same
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  24. 01-30-2016, 04:56 PM #21
    CPUd
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    This is probably not going to show anything new since the previous one. Except Carson may be way down, tied or below Rand..
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul
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  25. 01-30-2016, 05:04 PM #22
    CPUd
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    Their projected GOP turnout = 85,600 + whoever registers on caucus day.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul
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  26. 01-30-2016, 05:19 PM #23
    Alldayallie
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    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    Is she the one who was only polling 5% of Ron 2012 voters?
    She was the one that had Ron at 22% in 2012 and Ron got 21.4%. She's right.
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  27. 01-30-2016, 05:22 PM #24
    Matt Collins
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    Doesn't matter, all polls will be within the margin of error.
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  29. 01-30-2016, 05:32 PM #25
    liberty_nc
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    Results?
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  30. 01-30-2016, 05:35 PM #26
    rich34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alldayallie View Post
    She was the one that had Ron at 22% in 2012 and Ron got 21.4%. She's right.
    If she's only polling (no pun intended) 5% of Ron Paul's caucus goers from 2012 then I can understand why one would question the accuracy of what's being told.
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  31. 01-30-2016, 05:37 PM #27
    Alldayallie
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    Beginning the show. They are going over bigger picture things. Right now Trump vs. Cruz in terms of characteristics.

    This really is the gold standard poll in Iowa.
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  32. 01-30-2016, 05:37 PM #28
    CPUd
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    live stream:
    http://features.desmoinesregister.co...video/poll.php
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul
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  33. 01-30-2016, 05:38 PM #29
    rich34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Collins View Post
    Doesn't matter, all polls will be within the margin of error.
    So you're saying Rand's ceiling may only be 10%? Please correct me if I'm wrong.
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  34. 01-30-2016, 05:42 PM #30
    Alldayallie
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    65% of Iowa Democrats ok with a Democratic Socialist. :|
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