How will Rand do in Iowa?

[The Rebel Poet]

The current 538 polling aggregator has Rand is at about 4% in Iowa. Realistically, how well do you think Rand will do?

[Makes Interesting Points]

In 2012, Ron Paul came in 3rd place with 21.4% in Iowa. The two people ahead of him were Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney. Ron Paul had a great performance, but did so without an anti-establishment mega-power running against him. Rand Paul, on the other hand, has both Trump and Cruz to compete with for the rebel vote. I don't think Trump will do as well as his poll numbers suggest, as I don't think most Trump supporters know what a caucus is (lol). Cruz though, is a big problem for us. People will caucus for Cruz like crazy. He's very liberty esque, especially on religious freedom, which will motivate many Iowans to come support him.

I don't expect Paul to win the nomination, but I do think it's possible that we'll break the record for liberty candidate performance in the nomination process. If we can continue to break the record, or at least have a strong performance every time, then we can put ourselves on the map in more conservatives' minds. With so many anti-establishments polling well this election, the window for this to happen may be soon. Hopefully we can acquire new Paul family fans from the populist conservative crowd. Ron Paul got 10% in Iowa in 2008, before getting that 21.4% in 2012. Obviously, we will follow the pattern and get 32.8 this year. Just kidding, but I bet the answer will be somewhere between the "minimum" Rand performance of 8% and that 32.8. If I had to bet my life on picking the results, I'd say Cruz wins Iowa, Trump comes in 2nd, Rubio or Paul comes in 3rd (With Rubio most likely getting that 3rd place, but with a quite possible Paul upset).

I would also give a slight chance to a dark horse Paul upset where he comes in 2nd. Since there's a giant question mark on how likely Trump supporters are to actually caucus, there is so much wiggle room there that this is possible. But only if Paul's own question mark of the young voter attending goes in Paul's favor.

Top 5 obstacles for Rand Paul this nomination process (and in Iowa):
1. Voters are not prioritizing freedom or the economy.
2. Many libertarians are not registered Republicans and therefore cannot directly affect the election.
3. Some states (including Iowa) have an old fashioned caucus system for delegates which is confusing, intimidating, or too time consuming for many young voters.
4. There are a lot of anti-establishment candidates to compete with.
5. Many anti-establishment "voters" are interested in being anti-establishment in the most glamorous way possible, because they aren't actually into politics that much.

[CPUd]

LOL at Cruz being "liberty esque, especially on religious freedom". Whatever was left of that illusion got destroyed last night. Also, Cruz is now considered the Goldman Sachs candidate. But he does have the 2nd best ground org in Iowa, so he will do well there.

[Crashland]

Just looking for any finish that supports a strong narrative that Rand is surging and that other candidates are falling back to earth.

[Southron]

I'm thinking 3rd place with around 15%.

[The Rebel Poet]

In 2012, Ron Paul came in 3rd place with 21.4% in Iowa. The two people ahead of him were Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney. Ron Paul had a great performance, but did so without an anti-establishment mega-power running against him. Rand Paul, on the other hand, has both Trump and Cruz to compete with for the rebel vote. I don't think Trump will do as well as his poll numbers suggest, as I don't think most Trump supporters know what a caucus is (lol). Cruz though, is a big problem for us. People will caucus for Cruz like crazy. He's very liberty esque, especially on religious freedom, which will motivate many Iowans to come support him.

I don't expect Paul to win the nomination, but I do think it's possible that we'll break the record for liberty candidate performance in the nomination process. If we can continue to break the record, or at least have a strong performance every time, then we can put ourselves on the map in more conservatives' minds. With so many anti-establishments polling well this election, the window for this to happen may be soon. Hopefully we can acquire new Paul family fans from the populist conservative crowd. Ron Paul got 10% in Iowa in 2008, before getting that 21.4% in 2012. Obviously, we will follow the pattern and get 32.8 this year. Just kidding, but I bet the answer will be somewhere between the "minimum" Rand performance of 8% and that 32.8. If I had to bet my life on picking the results, I'd say Cruz wins Iowa, Trump comes in 2nd, Rubio or Paul comes in 3rd (With Rubio most likely getting that 3rd place, but with a quite possible Paul upset).

I would also give a slight chance to a dark horse Paul upset where he comes in 2nd. Since there's a giant question mark on how likely Trump supporters are to actually caucus, there is so much wiggle room there that this is possible. But only if Paul's own question mark of the young voter attending goes in Paul's favor.

Top 5 obstacles for Rand Paul this nomination process (and in Iowa):
1. Voters are not prioritizing freedom or the economy.
2. Many libertarians are not registered Republicans and therefore cannot directly affect the election.
3. Some states (including Iowa) have an old fashioned caucus system for delegates which is confusing, intimidating, or too time consuming for many young voters.
4. There are a lot of anti-establishment candidates to compete with.
5. Many anti-establishment "voters" are interested in being anti-establishment in the most glamorous way possible, because they aren't actually into politics that much.

He makes interesting points.

[idiom]

If only people conscientiously objecting to the rule of law by boycotting elections counted towards Rands tally.

[69360]

Same answer as the poll yesterday and the poll the day before that.

I think 5th place and around 7% a bit better than the polling suggests.

[rich34]

In 2012, Ron Paul came in 3rd place with 21.4% in Iowa. The two people ahead of him were Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney. Ron Paul had a great performance, but did so without an anti-establishment mega-power running against him. Rand Paul, on the other hand, has both Trump and Cruz to compete with for the rebel vote. I don't think Trump will do as well as his poll numbers suggest, as I don't think most Trump supporters know what a caucus is (lol). Cruz though, is a big problem for us. People will caucus for Cruz like crazy. He's very liberty esque, especially on religious freedom, which will motivate many Iowans to come support him.

I don't expect Paul to win the nomination, but I do think it's possible that we'll break the record for liberty candidate performance in the nomination process. If we can continue to break the record, or at least have a strong performance every time, then we can put ourselves on the map in more conservatives' minds. With so many anti-establishments polling well this election, the window for this to happen may be soon. Hopefully we can acquire new Paul family fans from the populist conservative crowd. Ron Paul got 10% in Iowa in 2008, before getting that 21.4% in 2012. Obviously, we will follow the pattern and get 32.8 this year. Just kidding, but I bet the answer will be somewhere between the "minimum" Rand performance of 8% and that 32.8. If I had to bet my life on picking the results, I'd say Cruz wins Iowa, Trump comes in 2nd, Rubio or Paul comes in 3rd (With Rubio most likely getting that 3rd place, but with a quite possible Paul upset).

I would also give a slight chance to a dark horse Paul upset where he comes in 2nd. Since there's a giant question mark on how likely Trump supporters are to actually caucus, there is so much wiggle room there that this is possible. But only if Paul's own question mark of the young voter attending goes in Paul's favor.

Top 5 obstacles for Rand Paul this nomination process (and in Iowa):
1. Voters are not prioritizing freedom or the economy.
2. Many libertarians are not registered Republicans and therefore cannot directly affect the election.
3. Some states (including Iowa) have an old fashioned caucus system for delegates which is confusing, intimidating, or too time consuming for many young voters.
4. There are a lot of anti-establishment candidates to compete with.
5. Many anti-establishment "voters" are interested in being anti-establishment in the most glamorous way possible, because they aren't actually into politics that much.

The anti establish part is a good point, but I still think we're dealing with two different types of voters. There's not a lot to go on to prove my point other than that poll that was done showing Rand retaining 100% of the support that supported his father. So I'm of the opinion that the vast majority of those backing Cruz are people that wouldn't vote for Ron or Rand. These Glen Beck types that like to claim anti establishment but are obviously hard core social conservatives. I'll also say if the campaign claims they have identified 37,000 supporters that number would actually fall in line with the top percentage you stated Rand's support "could" be. So to me the support is there regardless of who's in the race. It's just going to take a huge GOTV effort along with excitement to drive it home. I suppose another point and my last is remember Paul supporters were always considered the most educated when it came to issues and candidates. For this reason also I don't see many Paul people if any switching over to Cruz. At this point the winner will be the one who can turn out their supporters.

[rich34]

Oh and another point to support my main point. If you remember whether we consider Santorum establishment or not he and Ron were competing to be the guy considered the anti establishment guy to Romney. These that supported Santorum considered themselves as anti establishment. So in essence these are the very people that are supporting Cruz/Rubio at the moment. Paul's supporters are not fooled easily imo. Rand just needs to turn out his supporters and everything will take care of itself. Oh and you can throw Carson into the mix as well of supporters Cruz not Rand is having to fight for.

[mello]

I think the one major thing in Rand's favor is that all of those college students will be back from winter break. His father nearly won when all of those students were home. And I hope the lion's share of his 1,000+ precinct captains are college students that will recruit 30+ friends and students to caucus.

That is the wildcard that is never talked about by the pundits in the MSM. They always say that Cruz has the best ground game in Iowa.

[69360]

I think the one major thing in Rand's favor is that all of those college students will be back from winter break. His father nearly won when all of those students were home. And I hope the lion's share of his 1,000+ precinct captains are college students that will recruit 30+ friends and students to caucus.

That is the wildcard that is never talked about by the pundits in the MSM. They always say that Cruz has the best ground game in Iowa.

I hope you are right, but kids are historically and notoriously unreliable voters. Old voters win elections.

[euphemia]

I hope you are right, but kids are historically and notoriously unreliable voters. Old voters win elections.

But this is not a primary. It is a caucus. It's a different kind of decisionmaking.

[Alldayallie]

IF the polls are way off:

Rand 24
Trump 22
Cruz 17
Rubio 14
Carson 7
Bush 5
Christie 3
Huckabee 3
Santorum 2
Kasich 2
Fiorina 1


Worst case:

Trump 28
Cruz 25
Rubio 15
Paul 10
Carson 8
Bush 4
Christie 3
Santorum 2
Huckabee 2
Kasich 1
Fiorina 1

[Koobs]

The way Rand said he thinks he is going to do very well in Iowa during the debate sounded like a poker play you're talking to who has pocket kings. So maybe he thinks he has a trick up his sleeve.

[69360]

But this is not a primary. It is a caucus. It's a different kind of decisionmaking.

This is millenials we are talking about. High tech, low attention span millenials. They will be even less reliable in a caucus. A generation raised on instant gratification is not going to drive to a church basement in a snow storm and sit there for several hours with a bunch of old people. If they could vote online, sure they would turn out. IRL, I think not.

[CPUd]

This is millenials we are talking about. High tech, low attention span millenials. They will be even less reliable in a caucus. A generation raised on instant gratification is not going to drive to a church basement in a snow storm and sit there for several hours with a bunch of old people. If they could vote online, sure they would turn out. IRL, I think not.

You seem to think they are just going to sit around on Monday night and hope people show up. Not so.

[Brett85]

About 12-15%.

[69360]

You seem to think they are just going to sit around on Monday night and hope people show up. Not so.

Well lets hope you are right and I'm wrong.

[nikcers]

Well lets hope you are right and I'm wrong.

We know you are wrong, just put Ted Cruz in your signature already dude its obvious. People like you only come out when we are doing our best.

[Dianne]

I went 5 to 9, but still respectful showing. As long as he takes out the establishment candidates.... and leaves Jeb Bush in his dust; I am happy.

[mello]

I just read this:

Another Paul-supporting SuperPAC, PurplePAC, has an ad for Paul they've developed airing on TV in Des Moines and Cedar Rapids now. It will be airing 25 times on the ABC affiliate in Cedar Rapids, six times on the Fox affiliate, 33 times on the CBS affiliate, and 46 times on the NBC affiliate. In Des Moines, it will air 36 times on local CBS, 11 on Fox, 40 on NBC, and 30 on ABC, for a total 227 airings in both markets combined.

[CPUd]

That's the flame ad:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...w-Super-PAC-ad

[nasaal]

We know you are wrong, just put Ted Cruz in your signature already dude its obvious. People like you only come out when we are doing our best.

Wow, what? The guy expressed his opinion based on the historically low nature of youth turnout when it comes time for actual voting, and your response is to accuse him of not being a supporter.

[CPUd]

Wow, what? The guy expressed his opinion based on the historically low nature of youth turnout when it comes time for actual voting, and your response is to accuse him of not being a supporter.

He's a Rand with an asterisk supporter.

* he cannot post a message of support for Rand without the added bit that he doesn't think Rand will win.

[Peace&Freedom]

Rand will get high teens, 18-19%, which should be enough to get past Rubio, and perhaps past Cruz, if he has lost enough altitude from the gaffes and Trump missiles he's received. Remember that the 1,000 captains are pledged to bring 3-30 new people with them to the precincts, which on the low end means 4,000 youth voters, plus those who walk in on their own. Those youth walk ins, based on the 15% turnout in 2012, would be nearly 4,500 from that direction. This 8-8,500 will make a difference.