What finish do you expect from Rand in IA ?
Reply With Quote
Site Information
About Us
- RonPaulForums.com is an independent grassroots outfit not officially connected to Ron Paul but dedicated to his mission. For more information see our Mission Statement.
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
What finish do you expect from Rand in IA ?
victory
Rand takes Iowa.
“I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul
I LOVE the optimism folks! We're going to SHOCK the world!
4th. The campaign said so
I'm saying 2nd or 3rd... I'm doing this because i want us to be pleasantly surprised on monday night! Last time i predicted ron would win in 2012 and he finished in third and was devastated... Hope rand gets the good karma ron didn't in 2012 and shocks us all!!
Hoping for 2nd but this is a freakin tough crowd with multiple campaigns fully aware of the Santorum 2012 strategy.
Rand's ace in the hole is the untested Students for Rand. Success entirely depends on them.
"Freedom, then Pizza!" - Oklahoma State GOP Convention 5/11/2012
I'm going to spend the entire weekend calling to make sure Rand gets 1st.
THE SQUAD of RPF
1. enhanced_deficit - Paid Troll / John Bolton book promoter
2. Devil21 - LARPing Wizard, fake magical script reader
3. Firestarter - Tax Troll; anti-tax = "criminal behavior"
4. TheCount - Comet Pizza Pedo Denier <-- sick
@Ehanced_Deficit's real agenda on RPF =troll:
Who spends this much time copy/pasting the same recycled links, photos/talking points.
7 yrs/25k posts later RPF'ers still respond to this troll
Success depends on us too, the power of GOTV can be measured by how many volunteers you have willing to call voters.Originally Posted by RabbitMan
THE SQUAD of RPF
1. enhanced_deficit - Paid Troll / John Bolton book promoter
2. Devil21 - LARPing Wizard, fake magical script reader
3. Firestarter - Tax Troll; anti-tax = "criminal behavior"
4. TheCount - Comet Pizza Pedo Denier <-- sick
@Ehanced_Deficit's real agenda on RPF =troll:
Who spends this much time copy/pasting the same recycled links, photos/talking points.
7 yrs/25k posts later RPF'ers still respond to this troll
I will say 4th, because I think Rand can finish ahead of Carson. Finishing ahead of Rubio or Cruz or Trump would be a tall order, but we'll finally get to see some real results come Monday
Hoping for some momentum from a strong showing and/or from a collapse of some of the other people.
Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law. -Douglas Hofstadter
Life, Liberty, Logic
I feel strongly about a top 4 finish. I am not certain of the order yet. Based on the mailed media and radio I would say Bush, Cruz, Rubio are the top three. Ground game indicates Rand, Cruz, Carson, Rubio. It's very hard to tell. Turnout is key. I've been hearing anything from 120k to 160k+. Trump has huge name id and support but there is no money being spent and very little GOTV. I think Bush has a hard time breaking into the top 4 with Kasich, Christie, and Rubio taking some of his support and Carson fighting him for pole position. Speaking of Carson, he could upset and place top 3 or higher. GOTV is the game to be played now...
A friend of mine says it will be Cruz, Trump, Paul in that order.
4th @ 10%
We either need top 3 or Rubio to win and top 4. I have no prediction though.
The enemy of my enemy may be worse than my enemy.
I do not suffer from Trump Rearrangement Syndrome. Sorry if that triggers you.
Voted 2nd, but I really have no idea, I am hopeful he can place top 3.
2nd place: Cruz, Paul, Trump.
Or
3rd Place: Cruz, Trump, Paul.
4th - 14%
5th 7%
This was done already, just not in a poll format ..
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...e-a-prediction
As much as I want him to finish 1st, he will be 3rd and there will be no mention of it in the media.
It seems like a few on the board is susceptible to propaganda, herding, logic fallacies, and easily brainwashed by saying he has no chance. Just what the media has gotten many feeble minds to repeat even one's with Rand as their favorite. A book to help them understand, The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind.
Actually, it was before THAT
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...owa-Percentage
Non-violence is the creed of those that maintain a monopoly on force.
No they didn't. They said 4th place should not be excluded from the ABC debate. The part about the rules being "likely to exclude him" is from the article not from the campaign. I think the campaign are expecting things to be close though, and they are making that case about the rules based on principle. As someone else said, if 4th place is 10 votes behind 3rd place it would be crazy to have 3rd place on the stage for the debate and not 4th place.
Nowhere did they say they expect to come in 4th. I do think they are expecting it to be tight though, probably amongst 4 of the candidates, Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Paul. Could Paul come 4th? Sure. But recently I've been feeling that Cruz & Rubio are waning the more they are tested on the issues, and I have a feeling that Trump's support is largely superficial. I think we have a great chance to get top 2. I have a feeling there will be a lot of Trump people sitting at home watching the TV waiting to watch what they think is the inevitable happen on TV. Even those Trump people who do go out to caucus for him may have trouble a) holding their attention/patience for long enough to stick around and b) understanding and being willing to take part in the process.
I think it's possible we could have what would effectively be a four way tie. But it depends how committed and ready the other candidates supporters are, I think it's going to be their job to try to match Rand's ground game if they can, but I can't see any of them meaningfully beating it.
For Liberty!
If I were betting money, I would say 4th, but he needs at least second. Anything less than 2nd place will just be written off as a strange curiosity, especially if Tronald wins Iowa big.
Rubio's deference to Rand last night was interesting--his internal polling must be telling him something that isn't public.
What I think the results would mean:
- 7th: Not going to happen
- 6th: Ditto
- 5th: This would mean a complete breakdown of the youth vote and the campaign. Time to pack it up.
- 4th: This would be enough to keep him going for a little while, but the path would be almost impossible. He could still grab delegates along the way for the convention, though. If no one secures the nomination, he could play an interesting role.
- 3rd: This would ensure his campaign as a viable alternative and the path forward is way easier, though still tenuous. The money would come in and his message would get louder.
- 2nd: This would mean he'd remain in the top 3 throughout the process and could very well end up with the nomination. It would be a Trump/Paul/Establishment 3-way battle with each taking states along the way. Paul's momentum would continue to build, though, while the others would have already peaked.
- 1st: President Paul. It would demonstrate to people that the polls have been faulty and he would start to coalesce the establishment fearful of Trump/Cruz, as well as the anti-establishment fearful of Bush/Rubio.
Which do you want? This is why Iowa is so damned important.
"And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works." - Bastiat
"It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere." - Voltaire
I want 1st, but I'm going to be realistic and say 3rd.
dunno.
First might be regarded as a weird millennial anomaly and written off.
Second may be better. A real alternative to the cartoon front-runner and an opportunity for Rand and Trump to go at it.
All modern revolutions have ended in a reinforcement of the power of the State.
-Albert Camus
There is absolutely nothing wrong with 4th in Iowa at this stage in the game.
If he finishes ahead of Carson, Bush, Kasich, Christie, and the others, that is
a positive development.
Second is better than first? I suppose the multiverse is real.
i feel a firm 2nd is coming monday night. something like 22-25%
I'm guessing it'll be 2nd just because I think Rand may be peaking a little bit late (last time Ron peaked a little early insofar as the popular straw vote, which shaped the perception of the electorate even though he ended up winning the state), though I wouldn't be disappointed if the millennial vote pulled out a massive upset for us. I'm guessing that either Cruz maintains his lead or that his lead collapses and they all flock to Rubio.
Granted, all of this assumes that Trump's support isn't real, which I don't think it is. If it is, we're in a lot of trouble.
Posting Permissions
Connect With Us