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Thread: New FOX Polls today IA/NH, Rand is UP

  1. #61
    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    Keep going Rand! Its a good time to begin the ascent, a lot can happen in the final days.
    Hope you're 1,000% right! Hope there are 2 storms in Iowa: the real snowstorm and a Randstorm!!



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  3. #62
    Would FOX News dare ignore their own poll to exclude Senator Paul?

  4. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by 01000110 View Post
    rcp average IA

    Poll Date Sample Trump Cruz Rubio Carson Bush Paul Christie Huckabee Kasich Fiorina Santorum Spread
    RCP Average 1/13 - 1/21 -- 32.2 27.0 12.2 7.4 4.2 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.2 1.6 1.2 Trump +5.2
    FOX News 1/18 - 1/21 378 LV 34 23 12 7 4 6 4 2 2 1 2 Trump +11
    CBS News/YouGov 1/18 - 1/21 492 LV 39 34 13 5 1 3 2 0 1 1 1 Trump +5
    CNN/ORC 1/15 - 1/20 266 LV 37 26 14 6 3 2 1 3 1 1 1 Trump +11
    KBUR 1/18 - 1/19 687 LV 25 27 9 11 7 3 4 4 3 3 1 Cruz +2
    Loras College 1/13 - 1/18 500 LV 26 25 13 8 6 3 3 3 4 2 1 Trump +1


    Im going to say they include the last Des Moines register which put Rand in the debate - Loras is a crackpot poll, but I guess they will include it although I have not seen Fox News use it before but Fox Business did last time out

  5. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by Jlasoon View Post
    You do realize that being delusional is mental disorder - right?
    Self diagnosis is fraught with danger. You should probably see a specialist.



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  7. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by nasaal View Post
    That's why I'm not terribly worried around Trump yet. His voter base is vocal and bigger than one would expect. It has very little room to grow as it is exclusionary by its very nature.
    We Are The Trump, You Will Be Assimilated.

    No one here wanted to be the Billionaire.

  8. #66
    Time to get EXCITED...

    Rand Paul for Peace

  9. #67
    Quote Originally Posted by Alldayallie View Post
    Would FOX News dare ignore their own poll to exclude Senator Paul?
    I wouldn't put it past them.

  10. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by Alldayallie View Post
    Would FOX News dare ignore their own poll to exclude Senator Paul?
    "In order to avoid the appearance of a conflict of interest we are not including our own poll as part of the debate criteria."

    Easy. Lol.

  11. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Somebody twitter this video to Kelley Paul please


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QcbaMCfzW0

  12. #70
    Quote Originally Posted by thatpeculiarcat View Post
    I wouldn't put it past them.


    Quote Originally Posted by JJ2 View Post
    "In order to avoid the appearance of a conflict of interest we are not including our own poll as part of the debate criteria."

    Easy. Lol.
    FOX News: You know, sometimes you just gotta be fair and balanced. We are just trying to be fair to Sen. Paul and exclude our poll, as not to show a bias. Since he boycotted our last debate, he must not want us to use this poll. With that, he no longer qualifies for our debate.

  13. #71
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    If they use:
    Fox
    CNN/ORC
    Loras
    DMR/Bloomberg
    ARG

    Paul and Bush are tied for #5 at 4.0
    They'll probably make up some BS "tie breaker" such as New Hampshire or national polling data.

  14. #72

    Bush is sinking in Iowa

    Quote Originally Posted by Anti-Neocon View Post
    Thanks. KBUR uses robo-polls for land line and then a few live interviews for cell phones. I would think that they do not qualify, because the large majority are robo-polled.

    Gravis wasn't used in there when they had the option to, but Loras was.

    So that means:
    FOX News - Paul 6, Bush 4
    CNN - Paul 2, Bush 3
    *KBUR - Paul 3, Bush 7
    Loras - Paul 3, Bush 6
    DMR - Paul 5, Bush 4
    ARG - Paul 4, Bush 3

    With KBUR, ARG isn't included and you get Paul 3.8, Bush 4.8
    Without KBUR, ARG is included and you get Paul 4.0, Bush 4.0
    While Rand has been steadily been going up in the polls since Dec. in Iowa, Bush has been dropping like a rock. So yes Rand will probably hit a couple more good polls before the debate, but I look for Jeb to slip farther behind in Iowa, he is not running tv ads and basically has no ground game



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  16. #73
    I hope everyone sees what's happening in these polls... (unfortunately, there are still many of us in here that do not.)

    By asking the follow-up question to undecideds, it's pushing them into a category that may not be reality. So, basically, you begin by telling the pollster you don't know who you're going to vote for. At that point, they ask you "well, if you had to decide today..." At that point, the undecided voter will generally name the person who is getting the most news mentions. And then, the media reports the poll as if everyone who responded, was answering the same question. This is absolutely false. But hey, it's hard to sell a poll that doesn't give the media what they want.

    So this is where you get your "self-fulfilling" polling. Because the more the media mentions names, the more likely the respondents will regurgitate them back to the pollster.

    However, what we must be careful to recognize is that even though this is happening and it throws off the accuracy of the polls, it never stops happening. Which means it carries over right into the voting booth and the caucuses.
    "And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works." - Bastiat

    "It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere." - Voltaire

  17. #74
    Quote Originally Posted by CaptUSA View Post
    I hope everyone sees what's happening in these polls... (unfortunately, there are still many of us in here that do not.)

    By asking the follow-up question to undecideds, it's pushing them into a category that may not be reality. So, basically, you begin by telling the pollster you don't know who you're going to vote for. At that point, they ask you "well, if you had to decide today..." At that point, the undecided voter will generally name the person who is getting the most news mentions. And then, the media reports the poll as if everyone who responded, was answering the same question. This is absolutely false. But hey, it's hard to sell a poll that doesn't give the media what they want.

    So this is where you get your "self-fulfilling" polling. Because the more the media mentions names, the more likely the respondents will regurgitate them back to the pollster.

    However, what we must be careful to recognize is that even though this is happening and it throws off the accuracy of the polls, it never stops happening. Which means it carries over right into the voting booth and the caucuses.
    The large field makes it worse, because they have to read off all those names. Sometimes this is exposed when you look at the "don't know who this is" column of the favorables.

    Sometimes, the ones that ask who you will never vote for will only read the names when asked to.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

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