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Thread: My personal prediction for Rand in Iowa... do you have a prediction??

  1. #1

    Thumbs up My personal prediction for Rand in Iowa... do you have a prediction??

    OK guys! I'm starting this prediction thread for Rand in Iowa. Now, I did promise that I won't give a final standing for Rand. However, I've done some number crunching on my own and here's my prediction and will give percentages.

    Rand SHOULD get about 22% of the vote, give or take, within the margin of error. I added Ron's numbers in 2008 and 2012 plus Dole's 96 numbers and Forbes' 2000 numbers. Remember, Rand's Iowa campaign manager is the same guy that helped Dole win in 96 and helped Forbes get 2nd in 2000. Now, we don't know for sure how many of those that will vote for Rand actually voted Dole/Forbes/Paul/Paul in the past caucuses.

    Rand will no doubt get a huge influx of new caucusers and that will change his numbers for the better, in my view.

    So, just consider my prediction is based only on the results for either Ron or under Rand's campaign manager's wing.

    Just my two cents!



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  3. #2
    I predict that Rand will do worse than Ron did in 2012, in terms of place. I predict 4th or 5th place.
    __________________________________________________ ________________
    "A politician will do almost anything to keep their job, even become a patriot" - Hearst

  4. #3
    16%. Solid 3rd place. Trump will win with no more than 25%.

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  6. #5
    13% in a close race for 3rd with Rubio.

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Collins View Post
    I predict that Rand will do worse than Ron did in 2012, in terms of place. I predict 4th or 5th place.
    So a win in Iowa by Rand with over 26,000 votes would shock you?
    Rand Paul 2016 for Peace

  8. #7
    I dont think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president, he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. Hes the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  9. #8
    1st

    Maybe saying so will make it so

    Chances are some votes will disappear, so probably 3rd



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  11. #9
    I'm not convinced he will significantly out perform the polls. Single digits in the popular vote, and a stronger showing down the line in the state convention. Lets say 3-8%

    He's currently polling at 3% fwiw
    Waiting for the day the classical liberals drive the hateful alt-right out of the republican party, and the libertarians can rise again.

  12. #10
    Rand will be under 5 percent.

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  14. #12
    I really don't know at this point. I was thinking he could do really well and surprise people, but the latest polls are just really discouraging, and I don't know how well he can do in Iowa without even being in the last debate. I just wish we could get some good news for once. It just seems like our movement never gets any good news at all.

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  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Brett85 View Post
    I really don't know at this point. I was thinking he could do really well and surprise people, but the latest polls are just really discouraging, and I don't know how well he can do in Iowa without even being in the last debate. I just wish we could get some good news for once. It just seems like our movement never gets any good news at all.
    I seriously propose we all get together and create a media station for freedom ideas! The RPF is great but maybe we need something like the Liberty Channel or something? And we can have really great freedom-minded guests!

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by LatinsforPaul View Post
    So a win in Iowa by Rand with over 26,000 votes would shock you?
    No because it is not possible.
    __________________________________________________ ________________
    "A politician will do almost anything to keep their job, even become a patriot" - Hearst



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Collins View Post
    No because it is not possible.
    So you're claiming that the campaign is lying when they say their goal is to get between 17,000 and 27,000 voters to caucus for Rand?

  21. #18
    Rand WILL WIN with upwards to 40% of the vote, or more .. and yes you can quote me ..


  22. #19
    There's another prediction thread with specific totals for each candidate. Can't find it right now.

    I've been predicting a win with 27%.

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Collins View Post
    No because it is not possible.
    Why not?
    "They that can give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety."
    -Benjamin Franklin

  24. #21
    It's hard to believe the polling could be so off. However, it's just as hard to believe Rand's message is so unpopular. The polling also totally goes against everything Rand's team is saying.

    So I say 19%.

  25. #22
    The newest CNN poll in Iowa has Rand at 2%. They did not poll anyone under the age of 55? WTF? Seriously 17-35 was 30%+ of the vote in Iowa in 2012. This is insane?
    "They that can give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety."
    -Benjamin Franklin

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike4Freedom View Post
    The newest CNN poll in Iowa has Rand at 2%. They did not poll anyone under the age of 55? WTF? Seriously 17-35 was 30%+ of the vote in Iowa in 2012. This is insane?
    Their sample was too small to accurately project the numbers for all but the oldest age group.
    I dont think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president, he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. Hes the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  27. #24
    I dont think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president, he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. Hes the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    Their sample was too small to accurately project the numbers for all but the oldest age group.
    Ahh, so just a $#@!ty poll then.
    "They that can give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety."
    -Benjamin Franklin

  30. #26
    Prediction: Randslide!

    I dont think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president, he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. Hes the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  31. #27
    I imagine between 8 and 12%, would hope it to be a lot more though as most of us do

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Brett85 View Post
    So you're claiming that the campaign is lying when they say their goal is to get between 17,000 and 27,000 voters to caucus for Rand?
    No not at all, I don't think they are lying.
    __________________________________________________ ________________
    "A politician will do almost anything to keep their job, even become a patriot" - Hearst

  33. #29
    I think that this election isn't going to follow any of the rules of the previous 2-5 cycles. I feel like Rand's campaign as a whole is almost like it's from a different time period because he has a huge opportunity to flip the script. He is in a different gear then everyone else right now, and we are about to see whether or not appealing to a general audience can work in a primary and it might because I think he just needs to win a major battle against the RNC he needs to look like the winner he needs to make them look stupid.

  34. #30
    Trump 1st. Rand and Cruz fight for 2nd. Rubio and Bush fight for 4th.

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